Everything Derozan

[Axel]

Ipso Facto, Demar, and his agent, demanding a Max Contract, based on market ...

The only scenario I can see the market determining Demar to be a Max (or near Max) player, is if he actually plays like a Max or near Max player ... in which case, pay the man, no?

If lots of teams have "Max" space, and there are less "Max" players than teams with "Max" space, it stands to logic that a few Max offers would trickle down to less than deserving players. History of NBA Max deals is a very different list than history of NBA players deserving Max deals.

[DanH]

Ipso Facto, Demar, and his agent, demanding a Max Contract, based on market ...

The only scenario I can see the market determining Demar to be a Max (or near Max) player, is if he actually plays like a Max or near Max player ... in which case, pay the man, no?

Keep in mind, Joey, the last time the league had anywhere near the cap space it will have in 2016 (and frankly, not even close, but the closest it's been in a long time) was the summer of 2010, in which Amare got an uninsurable max contract and Carlos Boozer got a max contract. Imagine that, but instead of 7 or 8 teams having max cap room, 25 do, including several with room for multiple maxes.

[Joey]

Keep in mind, Joey, the last time the league had anywhere near the cap space it will have in 2016 (and frankly, not even close, but the closest it's been in a long time) was the summer of 2010, in which Amare got an uninsurable max contract and Carlos Boozer got a max contract. Imagine that, but instead of 7 or 8 teams having max cap room, 25 do, including several with room for multiple maxes.

In 2010, Amare Stoudemire had just been named All-NBA 2nd Team for the 3rd time in his Career, was already an All-NBA 1st Team, was a former Rookie of the Year, a 5-time All-Star, and had led his team to several decent Playoff Runs .. I may have missed something in there though ...

In 2010, Carlos Boozer, though less illustrious than Stoudemire, was still a former All-NBA 3rd Team, 2-time All Star, and again, led his team to numerous, deep playoff runs.

Joe Johnson and his contract with the Hawks as I'm sure someone would mention? When he was only 23, younger than Demar, and had come off a season where he played all 82 games, averaged 17 points, 5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1 steal, and 48% from 3. Where he went on to be a 5-time All-Star and All-NBA 3rd Team for that very Hawks team?

I hope you see my point ...
Demar is a 1-Time All-Star and got 3 votes for All-NBA 3rd team and about to turn 26, right around the same age as both Stoudemire and Boozer were ... if his agent is able to argue he's worth Max (and not Gordon Hayward or Chandler Parsons Max, as I believe their Max is far off what Demars would be, and those other players were) then that is seriously impressive and I would be absolutely floored.

[DanH]

In 2010, Amare Stoudemire had just been named All-NBA 2nd Team for the 3rd time in his Career, was already an All-NBA 1st Team, was a former Rookie of the Year, a 5-time All-Star, and had led his team to several decent Playoff Runs .. I may have missed something in there though ...

In 2010, Carlos Boozer, though less illustrious than Stoudemire, was still a former All-NBA 3rd Team, 2-time All Star, and again, led his team to numerous, deep playoff runs.

Joe Johnson and his contract with the Hawks as I'm sure someone would mention? When he was only 23, younger than Demar, and had come off a season where he played all 82 games, averaged 17 points, 5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1 steal, and 48% from 3. Where he went on to be a 5-time All-Star and All-NBA 3rd Team for that very Hawks team?

I hope you see my point ...

Wait, what is your point? Amare was a known injury risk, hence the inability to get insurance on the contract - zero contract suppression due to the abundance of cap room. Boozer was not really a max guy and was seen as an obvious backup plan if your team failed to land the real big fish - no contract suppression because of all the cap space. And I repeat - summer 2016 will be much, much worse. The PA made sure of that when they rejected smoothing options.

[Joey]

Wait, what is your point? Amare was a known injury risk, hence the inability to get insurance on the contract - zero contract suppression due to the abundance of cap room. Boozer was not really a max guy and was seen as an obvious backup plan if your team failed to land the real big fish - no contract suppression because of all the cap space. And I repeat - summer 2016 will be much, much worse. The PA made sure of that when they rejected smoothing options.

I edited my first one, but the TL: DR is they obviously had a much better case at a Max than Demar does. Not arguing they were Max.

[DanH]

I edited my first one, but the TL: DR is they obviously had a much better case at a Max than Demar does. Not arguing they were Max.

And all I'm trying to establish is that they had poor cases for max contracts, and got them. And DeMar's case is much worse than their's - but again, my point is that with the depth of cap available, the threshold for a max contract will be much lower. 2010 was just an example of how that threshold can get lowered. The extent of that lowering is almost irrelevant - because 2016 will blow 2010 out of the water in that regard.

[DanH]

That said, I don't believe DD gets the max. But I think there's a chance he does, and I think he gets fairly close to it (20M).

[special1]

Everything Demar Derozan

I, like Joey, would be shocked if he got the Max. I can see him getting a huge deal if he puts up stellar numbers and the team wins next year. Anyone saying to trade him for fear of him getting the Max is either overrating him or speaking out of their butt.

Regardless, Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay are examples of players who got the max and were traded by their teams. Rudy was traded twice!!

If so many teams will want to give him the max, then I doubt we'd have any problem trading him, if we so choose.

Having said all that, I think he re-signs for 16-18 mil depending on his production in 2015-2016.

What's the point of a rising cap if we aren't going to use it. Does anyone else see a lineup of free agent stars coming to sign here?? I doubt players will be lining up to play for a team that traded their better players for unknowns and draft picks.....

Edit:

IMO No team will give up a younger potential star player or a high draft pick for a possible one year rental of Demar. Maybe LA would do it, but after Dwight did them dirty, I doubt it.

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[Joey]

And all I'm trying to establish is that they had poor cases for max contracts, and got them. And DeMar's case is much worse than their's - but again, my point is that with the depth of cap available, the threshold for a max contract will be much lower. 2010 was just an example of how that threshold can get lowered. The extent of that lowering is almost irrelevant - because 2016 will blow 2010 out of the water in that regard.

So doing some quick math, Demar would technically be able to ask for $27M starting Salary... yes? You really think that Demar is going to ask for $27M next Off-Season and get it? I don't. But I don't think he'd even ask for that, nor do I think he would command that sort of contract, and commitment, on the open market.

30% is still 30%, so even if the Cap explodes, Max is still commiting 30% of your Salary cap to one person, and I just don't see Demar being the type of player that a team would do that for. And I'm even more surprised you and his critics are.

Edit:

That said, I don't believe DD gets the max. But I think there's a chance he does, and I think he gets fairly close to it (20M).

Just saw this. Ok, so lets say he does get $20M, which I truly believe is at the very top of what he could command, the cap itself is still set go up by $22M next season. I mean, if Masai really belives he has a shot at Durant or any other big fish, then I'm sure he'll wait to sign Demar .. but maybe I'm wrong.

[DanH]

I, like Joey, would be shocked if he got the Max. I can see him getting a huge deal if he puts up stellar numbers and the team wins next year. Anyone saying to trade him for fear of him getting the Max is either overrating him or speaking out of their butt.

Regardless, Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay are examples of players who got the max and were traded by their teams. Rudy was traded twice!!

If so many teams will want to give him the max, then I doubt we'd have any problem trading him, if we so choose.

Having said all that, I think he re-signs for 16-18 mil depending on his production in 2015-2016.

What's the point of a rising cap if we aren't going to use it. Does anyone else see a lineup of free agent stars coming to sign here?? I doubt players will be lining up to play for a team that traded their better players for unknowns and draft picks.....

Edit:

No team will give up a younger potential star player or a high draft pick for a possible one year rental of Demar. Maybe LA would do it, but after Dwight did them dirty, I doubt it.

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Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay were signed to massive deals and were traded mostly for cap relief and very little else of value.

And I never claimed lots of teams would want to give him the max - it only takes one, and when everyone is on the dance floor, there's bound to be one. And it is no guarantee, but there is a very real risk he signs a deal well beyond his true value.

[DanH]

So doing some quick math, Demar would technically be able to ask for $27M starting Salary... yes? You really think that Demar is going to ask for $27M next Off-Season and get it? I don't. But I don't think he'd even ask for that, nor do I think he would command that sort of contract, and commitment, on the open market.

30% is still 30%, so even if the Cap explodes, Max is still commiting 30% of your Salary cap to one person, and I just don't see Demar being the type of player that a team would do that for. And I'm even more surprised you and his critics are.

24M is DeMar's max. I've got him pegged at probably signing for about 20M, with a chance a team goes to 24M (hard to predict how bidding wars go when there are so many potential bidders). I find either salary too much, personally, and question his tradeability if he were to be retained on such a deal.

Keep in mind many teams will have 20+ M in cap room, with a large number eclipsing that by a fair margin, some teams approaching 60 or even 70M in cap room, depending on what they do this summer.

[Joey]

What is your $24M based off? All estimates peg the Cap at $89M next season no? 30% of that, which is what Demar is allowed, is $27M ($26.7M).

I could easily see him being very happy accepting in the $16-18M range. Which I would be perfectly happy with as well. He already signed one very team-friendly contract, and I've seen nothing that would indicate to me Demar is that greedy or selfish (besides his occasional shot-selection :P Womp womp) to be the kind of guy that would say, "well the team has all this space, I should get it all."

[special1]

Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay were signed to massive deals and were traded mostly for cap relief and very little else of value.

And I never claimed lots of teams would want to give him the max - it only takes one, and when everyone is on the dance floor, there's bound to be one. And it is no guarantee, but there is a very real risk he signs a deal well beyond his true value.

Isn't that the case for all players entering free agency??

Just because we lost two players (McGrady and Bosh) to free agency doesn't mean we should trade our future free agent all-stars for fear of them leaving.

It's a risk we'll just have to take in my opinion. You keep rebuilding and rebuilding and you lose respect around the league.

Eventually, JV will be a UFA as well.... Should we then trade him (when the time comes) before he walks or gets a contract he doesn't deserve? I'm really curious what you would do in that scenario. Obviously, JV hasn't accomplished anything yet.... This is just a hypothetical question.




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[DanH]

What is your $24M based off? All estimates peg the Cap at $89M next season no? 30% of that, which is what Demar is allowed, is $27M ($26.7M).

I could easily see him being very happy accepting in the $16-18M range. Which I would be perfectly happy with as well.

Max contracts don't work like a direct percentage of the cap. The max contract calculation is based on an old version of the cap calculation, so they come in about 10% lower or so than the implied values from those oft-quoted percentages.

I could see him being happy with that unless he has an offer for 20 from another team. Or two competing offers. Or a half competent agent, who will tell him to wait until the big names are gone so the desperate losers can up the bidding.

[Axel]

Regardless of the exact figures, all it takes is 1.

One team led by 1 owner or 1 GM who looks at Demar and says, sure.

We don't know how the landscape will react because no other offseason can compare. If you are a good but not great team, say Clippers or Mavs of this year, and you have that max space and miss out on the stars, if you have that aging core, would you not seriously consider giving a lower tiered free agent the max money in hopes of bolstering your team for that final 2-3 year hoorah before the dismantling?

We have no idea what will happen and we cannot remotely forecast because there are no workable models for what is about to happen. That's a lot of risk on a player, who regardless of pay scale, might not be good enough to win with.