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  • Axel wrote: View Post
    Not all teams rely heavily on advanced stats. Both New York teams are prime examples of this. All it takes is 1 team out of 30.

    Plus you have to factor in that if a team that already has their star players locked into contract can afford to overpay for a secondary player if they need a SG who can score. Not all players are going to be up for contract renewals, so there will be lots of great players on great bargain deals and teams with this benefit can afford to roll the dice on an overpriced player if they feel he is the missing piece.

    Minnesota would be an example of a team that has star players locked into rookie deals (Wiggins, Towns) that could afford to overspend if they feel the need to compete (and Flip Saunders is certainly not advanced stats savy). Now I'm not predicting Minnesota will be that team, but without bothering to check team player contracts, they are an example of one team that could. And it only takes one.
    A lot of teams also have near DD-level impact players to sign.

    So all these guys are going to get the max? Whether that's ~22, ~25 or ~30M?

    - Al Horford
    - Joakim Noah
    - Pau Gasol
    - DeMar DeRozan
    - Jonas Valanciunas
    - Andre Drummond
    - Bradley Beal
    - Chandler Parsons
    - Dirk Nowitzki (no need to take a paycut if they have tons of cap room anyway)
    - Harrison Barnes
    - Mike Conley
    - Damian Lillard

    All these guys are getting maxes right? I left out superstar players from this deliberately. Then you've got to consider the myriad of similar level players in 2017 who would be seeking the same type of money. It's not going to happen.

    I expect DeRozan to sign for a contract comparable to the one Rudy Gay got with the Kings (of course adjusted to the new cap). Rudy's deal averages about 13.3M over the length of the contract, so I'd expect about 17-18M for DeRozan.

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    • JWash wrote: View Post
      A lot of teams also have near DD-level impact players to sign.

      So all these guys are going to get the max? Whether that's ~22, ~25 or ~30M?

      - Al Horford
      - Joakim Noah
      - Pau Gasol
      - DeMar DeRozan
      - Jonas Valanciunas
      - Andre Drummond
      - Bradley Beal
      - Chandler Parsons
      - Dirk Nowitzki (no need to take a paycut if they have tons of cap room anyway)
      - Harrison Barnes
      - Mike Conley
      - Damian Lillard

      All these guys are getting maxes right? I left out superstar players from this deliberately. Then you've got to consider the myriad of similar level players in 2017 who would be seeking the same type of money. It's not going to happen.

      I expect DeRozan to sign for a contract comparable to the one Rudy Gay got with the Kings (of course adjusted to the new cap). Rudy's deal averages about 13.3M over the length of the contract, so I'd expect about 17-18M for DeRozan.
      You have guys like JV & Drummond listed together with DD, even though it's well established that they are different levels of "max". This post doesn't even make sense.
      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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      • Axel wrote: View Post
        You have guys like JV & Drummond listed together with DD, even though it's well established that they are different levels of "max". This post doesn't even make sense.
        It makes a lot of sense, you just have really, really bad reading comprehension.

        I prefaced that list by saying

        So all these guys are going to get the max? Whether that's ~22, ~25 or ~30M?
        Read please man. It'll really make it easier for you to understand what I'm saying. I'm not speaking in tongues here.

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        • JWash wrote: View Post
          It makes a lot of sense, you just have really, really bad reading comprehension.

          I prefaced that list by saying



          Read please man. It'll really make it easier for you to understand what I'm saying. I'm not speaking in tongues here.
          $22M - $30M is a pretty fucking big range.

          You really are a condescending douchebag you know.
          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

          Comment


          • Axel wrote: View Post
            $22M - $30M is a pretty fucking big range.

            You really are a condescending douchebag you know.
            You're the one who keeps telling me my posts don't make sense when they clearly do.

            I asked you if all those guys are going to get the max. I clearly stated that I KNOW their maxes aren't the same. Then you start complaining that my post doesn't make sense because their maxes aren't the same...

            You're making it extremely difficult to debate properly by just either deliberately or unintentionally misunderstanding what I'm saying.

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            • JWash wrote: View Post
              You're the one who keeps telling me my posts don't make sense when they clearly do.

              I asked you if all those guys are going to get the max. I clearly stated that I KNOW their maxes aren't the same. Then you start complaining that my post doesn't make sense because their maxes aren't the same... Like what?
              This is my last post cause I'm done talking to you.

              When comparing the worth of a player salary, you can't lump in all "max" deals as the same when they are different by $3M-$8M. Might as well throw max rookie scale contracts in there for all your list is worth.
              Heir, Prince of Cambridge

              If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

              Comment


              • Axel wrote: View Post
                This is my last post cause I'm done talking to you.

                When comparing the worth of a player salary, you can't lump in all "max" deals as the same when they are different by $3M-$8M. Might as well throw max rookie scale contracts in there for all your list is worth.
                Yes I can if I qualify it by clearly stating that their maxes are obviously within a certain range. The question wasn't whether all these guys are going to get paid the same as DD, it was whether all these guys are going to get the max (whatever their respective max is). You've avoided that question by creating a strawman of their maxes not being the same, even though I clearly stated that from the beginning.

                If you don't want to talk to me anymore that's fine. I like debating with you when you want to debate the actual topic, you seem to be pretty knowledgeable.

                Comment


                • Abbas wrote: View Post
                  if DJ played only 24minutes (less then JV) he would still average almost 12rebounds, come on man dont even try to compare jv with DJ there's no competition.

                  Anyways im going to stop auguring with u guys. there's no point. just know that i dont hate on JV, he's my second favourite player on the team and ik he will be a very good player. however i dont think he will be a great player. I hope u guys can respect that and not make no childish jokes
                  peace
                  12 rebounds per 24? based on what??? nice randomly made up number but lets just assume thats true. how many points has he been averaging per game? 11.5. even if you checked his per 36, he only scores 12.1 a game. you take away 8 FULL MINUTES and he definitely does not score more than 10 points a game. so how is he a double double machine vs JV who somehow isnt?

                  Name a bunch of amazing centers who play JVs minutes and are double double machines?
                  Last edited by iblastoff; Sun Jun 28, 2015, 10:24 AM.

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                  • Axel wrote: View Post
                    This is my last post cause I'm done talking to you.

                    When comparing the worth of a player salary, you can't lump in all "max" deals as the same when they are different by $3M-$8M. Might as well throw max rookie scale contracts in there for all your list is worth.
                    Not going to lie man.nive been reading this argument from the beginning. And You really are avoiding his questions because he clearly stated what he said beforehand but you say it makes no sense...

                    You took a major L here IMO.
                    I'm back. I no longer worship joe johnson

                    Comment


                    • I_Worship_Joe_Johnson wrote: View Post
                      Not going to lie man.nive been reading this argument from the beginning. And You really are avoiding his questions because he clearly stated what he said beforehand but you say it makes no sense...

                      You took a major L here IMO.
                      Well the opinion of someone who loves Joe Johnson is highly regarded.

                      Thanks for contributing.
                      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                      Comment


                      • JWash wrote: View Post
                        Lowry argument doesn't make sense as the teams that went after him still had the ability to pay him max money and he didn't get it. After all Bosh got the max (from Houston and Miami... the same teams who were going after Lowry) and one could easily argue that Lowry was a better player than Bosh in 2013-14. He didn't get a max deal because he wasn't worth one, which is exactly what's going to happen with DeRozan unless he puts up like 25-5-5 next season.

                        Those bolded numbers are wrong

                        JV is eligible for 25% of the salary cap in a max... that percentage doesn't change even though the salary cap is rising. So an equivalent contract to the max in 2016 would simply be the max right now which is ~25% of 67.1M or 16.75M.

                        DD is eligible for 30% of the salary cap in a max... again the percentage doesn't magically change when the cap rises so he'd be eligible for about 20.1M.

                        I'd be more willing to give JV the max simply because it's a lower dollar amount but I don't see DeRozan getting a 25M max when 2016 FA rolls around anyway unless he improves a lot this coming season. Some of you are confusing the point I made about JV. I didn't say he's less worth the max than DD is. I just said he's more likely to get his max considering he's a center first of all and he is statistically a more efficient player on the court. He's also younger and can probably still feed off the "potential" tag especially considering Casey doesn't max out his minutes.

                        Idk why people think DeRozan is going to get a max in the advanced stats era. Teams can see that he is an all-star yes, but also has flaws as a player. Or do you guys think that only us forum posters understand that while NBA front offices are inept? Notice that over the past few years (basically since 2010 FA) nobody has really handed out a bad, cap-killing contract in free agency.
                        I feel like I have to make this post once a day.

                        The maximum contract values for players are NOT 25%, 30% and 35% of the max. That is wrong. Not true. Stop thinking this. For some reason this gets spread around. Well, I know the reason, it says so in the CBA, but people only read so far down and decide they know everything.

                        Two CBA negotiations ago, this was true (in 2004 or earlier). Since then, they changed the calculation for the cap (up to a factor of 44% of the revenue, rather than 42%). But they didn't change the way maximums are calculated, so they still use the 42% instead of the 44%.

                        Maximums are: (25 or 30 or 35)% times Salary Cap times (42.14/44.74)

                        My numbers were based on the current salary cap of 63.2M, as all our frame of reference contracts were signed last summer or earlier. We don't know what people will get this year, so presenting in terms relating to 67.1 doesn't tell us much (and still won't after this summer because of the unique situation players are in with the boom coming). And they were middle of the night estimates, but were almost certainly closer than your numbers. I think it works out to 14.9M and 17.9M.
                        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                        • Also, have you not heard of supply and demand? Give 4 teams max cap room and see if they offer max cap room to a second tier free agent. Now give 25 teams max cap room and see if one team offers max cap room to a second tier free agent. You really see no difference in those situations?
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • DanH wrote: View Post
                            Also, have you not heard of supply and demand? Give 4 teams max cap room and see if they offer max cap room to a second tier free agent. Now give 25 teams max cap room and see if one team offers max cap room to a second tier free agent. You really see no difference in those situations?
                            Don't think it's a supply and demand issue but how many stupid GMs there are. Only takes one

                            Comment


                            • I can totally see fringe allstar free agents getting max contracts in 2016.. out of this list I could see the following getting max deals (and about 29 teams will probably have room for a max contract):

                              - Al Horford
                              - Joakim Noah
                              - Pau Gasol
                              - DeMar DeRozan
                              - Jonas Valanciunas
                              - Andre Drummond
                              - Bradley Beal
                              - Chandler Parsons
                              - Dirk Nowitzki (no need to take a paycut if they have tons of cap room anyway)
                              - Harrison Barnes
                              - Mike Conley
                              - Damian Lillard

                              Parsons got one already, but I think his numbers will drop in Dallas. Dirk will take another pay cut despite the cap going up. I have a feeling JV will be extended before he gets a chance to listen to other deals, and it will be less than max.

                              Comment


                              • Aren't many shooting guards in the league.. that's going to definitely spike up his value. And not every team believes in analytics. More teams believe in 'talent'.. and DD was an all-star and played on team USA.

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