Everything Derozan

[Chr1s1anL]

The dumbing down is daring to compare Westbrook to DeRozan or focusing merely on offense and forgetting defense.

We've already seen what happens to DD game with another high usage wing. No thanks.

2013-14

November 14 games w/Rudy Gay

DD stats 22.5 points 2.7 assist 3.9 rebounds FG 444 3FG 389(3.9 attempts)

December only played 3 games with Rudy before getting traded.

So can we stop the DD doesn't play off another high usage wing?

[DanH]

We were a horrible defensive team anyway. And you say 3rd worst out of the regulars but almost all of them were within a very small range so that's an irrelevant point (107-110) only Jonas and JJ stood out, which makes sense because imo those are the only two players on the team who are really plus defenders anyway.

I consider him average to above average (would slightly above average be preferable?) because he can defend his man, has the size and length to do so, understands rotations, isn't a sieve, and gives a decent effort on that end. It's hard to have that view though when you're basically just watching for DD to make mistakes.

Soooo... No counter evidence at all? As ever, you attack my evidence (well, one of the three pieces of evidence I provided, and poorly at that) and provide none of your own. Then you accuse me of just watching for DD to make mistakes, which is a delightful little piece of personal attack to top off your post.

Did you know Al Jefferson finished 14th in the league in DRTG among qualified players? Check http://www.basketball-reference.com/...5_leaders.html and see it for yourself. He was also 3 points better than his teammate MKG who some (including me) sees as a true defensive stopper.

The question begs to be asked, how reliable is DRTG as a measure of an individual's defensive prowess?

Consider another statistics found at this page: http://www.basketball-reference.com/...1/on-off/2015/

The Raptors ORTG was 107.9 while Jonas was on the floor and 115.0 when he was not. That's a huge negative difference and when you consider JV's ORTG is 121 (second behind PP's 122), it may sound counter-intuitive. Bizarre, no?

Not really.

Are his on-off stats a better reflection of JV's value than his individual ORTG and DRTG? I'd say yes but there is an awful lot of noise in there.

Just a personal opinion but I believe JV would look much better if he was surrounded by players that complement his skills much better. But to build around him (or DeMar for that matter) is folly because he is not that good. I am not sure why people are putting so much weight on JV's percentages when we had Ed Davis a few years ago and Ed's percentages were certainly higher than his real value. I am not saying he is no more valuable than ED was for us, just that people are overvaluing JV.

You point is presumably that any one defensive statistic is not good enough to form an opinion of a player's defensive value. I agree. Hence my quoting of three different statistics (including an adjusted version of the on-off stats you quote without reference to how team- and situation-dependent they are), all of which make the same conclusion.

[DanH]

2013-14

November 14 games w/Rudy Gay

DD stats 22.5 points 2.7 assist 3.9 rebounds FG 444 3FG 389(3.9 attempts)

December only played 3 games with Rudy before getting traded.

So can we stop the DD doesn't play off another high usage wing?

Yeah, a 53 TS% with a massive drop off in assist rate and free throw rate (and the worst +/- on the team besides a second year JV). Exactly what I look for in a secondary option.

[OldSkoolCool]

Why are we all hung up on DD is a SG? I think the SG and SF are completely interchangeable.

Offensively, both position should at least be able to attack the close out, shoot the 3, and make the extra pass. Call these the "Wing Fundamentals". Anything else you get from your wings bring is a bonus, but they should be able to do those three things in order to balance any offensive system you decide to run. If your wing brings more than those three things...then they should be given more responsibility within the offense...but it doesn't make them a 2 or a 3. Danny Green and Trevor Ariza are essentially the exact same player offensively, yet one is considered a 2 and the other a 3. Defensively they can guard the same players so it isn't that... So why?

Defensively, the size difference of a couple of inches and 15 pounds should not limit you to handle switches on a play by play basis. If you are limited by small difference in the size of your opponent...then how can you even be considered an average defender?

The modern NBA is about flexibility on the wings. Your PG needs to be big enough to guard wings (or skilled enough)...your wings need to be tough enough to switch onto big guys or quick enough to guard PGs. Your big men need to be able to guard 2-3 dribbles from the point guard. I've simplified but that's the basics.

This brings me to the whole "DD is a top 5 or 10 SG in the league". Well by my view of the modern NBA, why do we only compare DD to those players which are labelled "SG's"? I feel like that leaves out a lot of really good NBA players who play the same role as DD...if only to convenience DD with a higher standing. Think about it, DD is 1 inch taller than Igoudala...yet nobody here ever compares DD to Igoudala because one player has a 2 beside their name and the other has a 3...why?

If we are looking to build a strong team from the guard positions, shouldn't we be looking for a PG who can switch onto a wing (CoJo, Wright), and wings who can switch 1-4 (Carroll, Bruno (1-maybe), Powell)?

Where does DD fit into that modern NBA concept? He doesn't fit there offensively or defensively. Spacing and defense would allow him to fit beside any player in any role...but he can't do so. Individually he is talented. But are his skills talented within the team? I don't think so, less is more from a team perspective. Your skills should be compliment your teammates, and your skills should compliment theirs.

Carroll + KD is a much better look than DD + KD. Why? In either situation, KD will have the ball in his hands because he is the most talented player. You can pass to Carroll for the three, or you can pass to DD for the less efficient three. Both Carroll and DD can attack the close out. Carroll is better at making the extra pass. And we all know Carroll is better defensively. DD can dribble more...but the ball is now in KD's hand, so DD's ability to dribble more is not a skill that makes KD better.

And if we are talking about being able to retain JV and DD while going after KD, you have to keep JV over DD. Why? You can post up JV, which gets the ball in the paint, starts rotations, and leads to open threes (or an efficient post play). DD can't create the penetration/post ups/or rotations as often as JV, or at all against bigger defenders. JV's skill set allows him to make any wing player better who has the "wing fundamentals". And their skills should give him more room to operate...benefiting him. I don't see this dynamic with the skills DD brings to the table

I just don't see DD as a stating caliber wing player in this league because he doesn't have the "wing fundamentals". I would like him in a bench role as a sort of a PG/Tyreke Evans role (similar to his usage with Team USA). But will he take that salary (<10 mil) or that 'demotion' to the bench? I don't think so...

DD for a mid to late first round pick wouldn't be ideal...but I would take it in a heart beat. If we replace DD with someone who has the "wing fundamentals" and give JV different role...there is no reason to believe we would become a worse team.

I've tempered my DD talk and kept out of it for most the off season, but from a team perspective and direction he kind of has to go. He just doesn't make the players around him better. Recruiting and hard work be damned, if we are to take the next step as a franchise he needs to go. Some people may not like it, but we need to stop trying to build around fundamentally flawed players.



***There are exception to my must have "wing fundamentals" rule. Ex) Greek Freak. Players like the Greek Freak pretty much go against everything we know about basketball, and unless you have a player like that then I think the better strategy is to find a wing whom has those "wing fundamentals"
***The SG vs SF position may be a touchy subject because of the whole Ross situation...I say Ross was just used improperly within the offense and developmentally...it has nothing to do with whether he is a number 2 or a number 3 on a piece of paper or a forum. Ross has shown the ability to guard 1 through 3. He needs to consistently do it, but he at least has that ability. Ross can attack close outs (to a floater), shoot the three, and make the extra pass. This will allow him to fit on any team and impact the game beyond box scores.

[JWash]

Soooo... No counter evidence at all? As ever, you attack my evidence (well, one of the three pieces of evidence I provided, and poorly at that) and provide none of your own. Then you accuse me of just watching for DD to make mistakes, which is a delightful little piece of personal attack to top off your post.

I'm not sure that DRPM is really the best way to evaluate how good a player is on defense. For example, DD (-0.34 DRPM) had a better DRPM than Klay Thompson (-0.72) in 2014-15, and wasn't really that much worse than Jimmy Butler (0.43). He also ranked approximately 15th amongst starting SGs which would be about average no...?

dRTG is heavily based on how good your team's dRTG is, which we've seen with DeRozan who's drRTG is usually within a point or so of the Raptors team dRTG (because he logs so many minutes).

And I didn't make a personal attack on you, I wasn't referring to you directly with that last part (and even if I was that's hardly a personal attack). I was referring to the idea that people also "confirm" that DD is a bad defender with the eye test. Well yes when you're only looking for mistakes and literally watch every single Raptors game (like most people here do I'd imagine) you're going to see so many mistakes that you'll think the guy's a sieve on defense. There's a huge element of confirmation bias that exists there. It's kind of the same reason people think Harden is atrocious defensively because all they watch are mixes of him making mistakes defensively.

[DanH]

Jimmy Butler's overall defence dropped off big time, except in specific scenarios, by his own admission due to the heavier offensive load he had to carry this year. And remained above average.

In any case, your approach seems to be to poke holes in stats one at a time (which anyone can do) while ignoring the pattern that they all say the same thing - DeMar is a below average defender. While also conveniently still not providing any sort of evidence for your claims that he is above average (or even average).

DRTG is indeed heavily influenced by how good your team's DRTG is, which is why I compared him only to his teammates who (gasp) are also on said team, and not to other players in the league via that metric.

[DanH]

Oh, and Klay Thompson's value as a defender is not that he is actually great at it, but that he is adequate at it AND able to switch onto PG's to lessen Curry's defensive load.

[JWash]

Jimmy Butler's overall defence dropped off big time, except in specific scenarios, by his own admission due to the heavier offensive load he had to carry this year. And remained above average.

In any case, your approach seems to be to poke holes in stats one at a time (which anyone can do) while ignoring the pattern that they all say the same thing - DeMar is a below average defender. While also conveniently still not providing any sort of evidence for your claims that he is above average (or even average).

DRTG is indeed heavily influenced by how good your team's DRTG is, which is why I compared him only to his teammates who (gasp) are also on said team, and not to other players in the league via that metric.

My claim is mostly based off what I see on the court. I'm a stats person, but I find it's really hard to evaluate a player defensively with stats, especially when they're not a high impact guy on that end of the floor (i.e. clearly very, very bad or clearly a dominant force).

And I know you compared him to his teammates, but I pointed out that they pretty much all had about the same dRTG, only differed by a point or so. You said he was 3rd last in dRTG but the separation between the best regular and worst regular (besides the two standouts in Jonas and JJ) was just 3 points.

[JWash]

Oh, and Klay Thompson's value as a defender is not that he is actually great at it, but that he is adequate at it AND able to switch onto PG's to lessen Curry's defensive load.

Is Klay Thompson a below average defender? He has a bad DRPM, and also had the worst dRTG on Golden State's entire roster. Was only 5 points better than DD's despite playing on the best defensive team in the league while DD played on the 3rd worst.

[DanH]

I would consider Thompson a below average defender (not by much, similar to DeMar), yes.

[JWash]

I think we agreed before DanH, that defense is:

33% Skill
33% Athleticism
33% Effort
1% Luck

To me DD is slightly above average in skill in terms of his understanding of where to be. As for athleticism, he's average. While he's strong and has good size for his position, his lateral quicks aren't the greatest. He's not a Jose Calderon though where he's just completely outmatched athletically at his position. Effort wise I'd say he gives an average effort.

That's why I say he's average to above average on defense. Extremely subjective, I know, but that's my opinion. When I'm watching games I don't really see a guy that's struggling out there defensively, and sometimes when he ramps up the effort to a very high level he can actually be a plus/very effective on that end (although he rarely does that).

I view DD as a guy that isn't a game changer on defense, but he also isn't a guy who hurts you or someone who has to be hidden defensively. Some people view Ross being put on the better scorer (usually, not all the time) as DD being "hidden" but Ross in theory has way better defensive tools so it only makes sense to put that guy on the superior scorer. Especially when you're asking DD to do the bulk of the work on the offensive end (however foolish that strategy may be).

[JWash]

I would consider Thompson a below average defender (not by much, similar to DeMar), yes.

Well if you consider KT below average, then using that baseline I would agree that DeMar is also below average. However I think we have a different baseline of what an average defender is.

[DanH]

My claim is mostly based off what I see on the court. I'm a stats person, but I find it's really hard to evaluate a player defensively with stats, especially when they're not a high impact guy on that end of the floor (i.e. clearly very, very bad or clearly a dominant force).

And I know you compared him to his teammates, but I pointed out that they pretty much all had about the same dRTG, only differed by a point or so. You said he was 3rd last in dRTG but the separation between the best regular and worst regular (besides the two standouts in Jonas and JJ) was just 3 points.

So you don't find it concerning that he ranks out poorly in all the major defensive statistics? You think that's all coincidence?

3 points is a mile wide in DRTG. That's the gulf between a top 10 defensive team and a bottom 10 defensive team. Don't write it off as insignificant.

Obviously individual DRTG doesn't capture team effects, but that's what DRPM attempts to do.

[JWash]

So you don't find it concerning that he ranks out poorly in all the major defensive statistics? You think that's all coincidence?

3 points is a mile wide in DRTG. That's the gulf between a top 10 defensive team and a bottom 10 defensive team. Don't write it off as insignificant.

Obviously individual DRTG doesn't capture team effects, but that's what DRPM attempts to do.

It's not really that I don't find it concerning, it's just that I see too many conflicts in the data to really invest much in it. Like to me Klay Thompson is above average defensively definitely (and most analysts would probably agree with that) however DRPM and dRTG says that he's below average and actually hurts Golden State on defense. Just one example.

Like DRPM says that Dunleavy is the 3rd best defensive starting SG (they have him at SG for some reason but whatever) in the league which is just pure nonsense.

[DanH]

I think we agreed before DanH, that defense is:

33% Skill
33% Athleticism
33% Effort
1% Luck

To me DD is slightly above average in skill in terms of his understanding of where to be. As for athleticism, he's average. While he's strong and has good size for his position, his lateral quicks aren't the greatest. He's not a Jose Calderon though where he's just completely outmatched athletically at his position. Effort wise I'd say he gives an average effort.

That's why I say he's average to above average on defense. Extremely subjective, I know, but that's my opinion. When I'm watching games I don't really see a guy that's struggling out there defensively, and sometimes when he ramps up the effort to a very high level he can actually be a plus/very effective on that end (although he rarely does that).

I view DD as a guy that isn't a game changer on defense, but he also isn't a guy who hurts you or someone who has to be hidden defensively. Some people view Ross being put on the better scorer (usually, not all the time) as DD being "hidden" but Ross in theory has way better defensive tools so it only makes sense to put that guy on the superior scorer. Especially when you're asking DD to do the bulk of the work on the offensive end (however foolish that strategy may be).

If your argument is going to be "subjective, I know, but that's my opinion," you should lead with that and not engage in the stats discussion at all.

I never said that DD is a player that needs to be hidden. I said he was a below average defender. He won't hurt you much defensively. But he's not contributing defensively - he has no real "plus" value there.

There's plenty of room for below average defenders in this league. The concern with DeRozan is how he falls short in so many areas, and when people bring up his defence as an area where he is solid or reliable, as a defence of his overall game when those other areas come under attack, I find it hard to reconcile with what I've perceived to be the reality of the situation.