NBA's Most Harmful Players

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

The posters that blamed the 22 win season on Bargnani are just as "deluded" as the posters who think he's an All-Star. Don't read the extremist point of view and assume it's the norm.

Good point Tim. I wasnt assuming that it was the norm, i just wanted to point out that some people did say it.

[mcHAPPY]

Flynn took a much higher percentage of jump shots in his second year and drew fouls at a much lower rate.

Was his role changed so drastically? I have no clue as I did not watched any basketball games from 2002-03 to 2009-10. Was he not entirely recovered from the hip injury? Is it a permanent result of the injury?

I'm not sure of the answer to your questions or my own. That is where it is the job of the GM and medical staff to determine his ability.

Personally, I think it is a very low risk and high reward situation.

[Quixotic]

I came across this article about the NBA's most harmful players.. Guess who's #1?

Interestingly, Johnny Flynn is 6th. Will playing in a different system help? Is this the exact same excuse people use for Bargnani?

There aren't too many surprises on the list. Guys I've never liked, like Villanueva and Aaron Brooks.

Oh, and Minnesota has 3 of the top 6, including 2 and 3. Is it any wonder they finished with the worst record?

I'm a little late to the discussion, sorry, but it took a while to digest everything the article's author was doing.

First, I'd like to point out that most "combination stats" (for lack of a better name) should be avoided. All they really do is total up a bunch of stats with an arbitrary rating system picked by the stat's creator, then the creator holds it out as declaring some truth not seen before. I've been verbal against the Wins Produced stat over at Wages of Wins, and I have to be verbal against this "Value" stat as well.

The Win Score "stat" is actually pretty harmless on its own, as it's not normalized against anything. It is, simply put, just an arbitrary tally of individual stats. The problem starts, however, when Mr. Courtside Analyst ("CA" for short henceforth) compares it to the opposing Win Score. Just to illustrate why this comparison doesn't prove anything really, let's shift Bargnani's position to shooting guard. Had Bargnani actually played SG, needless to say he probably would have been a bigger defensive liability this past season, being useless both on help defense and on man defense, requiring the rest of the team to cover for him. However, even if the average opposing SG played exactly like Kobe (9.23 WS) over the course of a season, Bargnani's oppWS would still unlikely be anywhere close to the 14.34 opposing centers post against him, simply because they wouldn't rebound like bigs. In short, this guy's method would show Bargnani to be less of a problem at SG, when he'd actually be even worse. This is the exact same conclusion that the normalized Wins Produced stat erroneously makes as well, btw.

So even though WS - oppWS means very little, CA takes that difference, divides it by two, converts it into a Win% (let's assume that this part is statistically sound), and applies it to each player's share of games to come up with wins and losses contributed to. CA then takes the difference again (between wins and losses), divides that by two, and adds the result to wins contributed to. Thus, "Value" is basically 0.5 (W - L) + W, or:

1.5W - 0.5L

Why not 2W - 1L? Why not 1W - 1L? Why not W^2 - L^2? I know CA provides some clumsy rationale for why he did what he did, but it's no different from if I spent an hour or two to come up with my own formula to weigh player stats the way I feel they should be weighed. And all this just to say "Bargnani can't rebound for beans, shoots farther from the rim than most bigs, and isn't the best defender." That is clear without another new fancy stat. It's clear from seeing his -4.9 PER differential. It's clear from seeing the team be a -2.6 net differential between Bargnani being on the floor and off. The next time someone creates a new stat, be sure that it doesn't allow for the Bargnani SG loophole discussed above. I'm a big believer in Sabermetrics, but none of the statistics for basketball can be treated as anywhere near as scientific as those in baseball.

Some additional food for thought: if we are to treat this new "Value" stat as scientific, we also have to accept that Calderon was the MVP for the team, and not, as many here think, insufficiently good at at offense to cover for his defensive shortcomings.

p.s. This wasn't an attack on you, Tim, but on CA.

[Tim W.]

Screw you, Quixotic. Why do you have to be so hurtful!

[Quixotic]

Screw you, Quixotic. Why do you have to be so hurtful!

I guess you're no longer coming over tonight.

I think you can forgive me though as I'm now in the "let's look for a trade partner for Bargnani" camp.

[Tim W.]

I guess you're no longer coming over tonight.

I think you can forgive me though as I'm now in the "let's look for a trade partner for Bargnani" camp.

Aw, who am I kidding. I can't stay mad at you! Especially after you said those sweet things about Bargnani.