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Spurs Offering Tony Parker? Looking to draft Valanciunas? (See post #74)

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  • #31
    Tim W. wrote: View Post
    I started to write a long reply, but decided to post most of it on my blog, here:
    http://www.wearingfilm.com/picketfen...r-be-a-raptor/

    Basically, though, my problem with the trade is that is would probably give the Raptors 5-10 more wins. Great, so now they become a 27-32 win team? Maybe the rest of the team improves, too, giving them, maybe 5-10 more wins. That's a 42 win team, at best. Maybe they make the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed. Maybe. But unlike a much more talented team like Memphis, Toronto is going to be a first round casualty. So with a much lower pick, they aren't likely to find an impact player in the draft, and with Parker's contract, they won't have money to spend on a free agent. So the team has little chance to bring in any other players to improve the team, which leaves their best option to improve to be within the team.

    I don't think there's many people that see either DeRozan or Davis as future elite players. Good ones, yes, but not elite players. And those two are probably going to be the two best players on the team 5 years from now. Unfortunately, because Parker has played so many games in his NBA career, he's likely going to start declining pretty soon. So by the time DeRozan and Davis are hitting their peak, Parker's probably just about done.

    And since a team lead by DeRozan and Davis aren't going to be good enough to be a contender, the Raptors will probably continue to be a 7th or 8th seed for the foreseeable future.

    So I don't think saying that a trade for Parker will doom the Raptors to mediocrity is a little dramatic. I'd say it's pretty damn accurate.
    Perfectly put. This is my biggest fear with this squad as currently composed. Though I like DD and expect that he will continue to grow, his ceiling is not Kobe. Ed is not a future superstar, but has shown the ability to be a solid PF in the near future. Bargs might be in the team's future, but hopefully not. Though he can be a lead scorer, he isn't a go-to scorer and his defensive disabilities are a huge reason the Raps have been so poor on that end of the court. We don't have a real star and I don't see one coming in this draft. This means that getting better this year without the addition of a verifiable star (unless drafted and that's a stretch with this years crop) would be getting worse in the long term. That's a bad place to be.

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    • #32
      I'd be very interested to see which player the Spurs would draft with the 5th - and then draft that guy.

      If Parker comes to Toronto, I wonder which player's wife he would sext with first?
      Never, under any circumstances, take a sleeping pill and a laxative on the same night.

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      • #33
        I normally have to preface my response with, "do you understand how the salary cap works?", but seeing as we have no idea what the new CBA will be like, I'll refrain. That said, I am highly doubtful that the new CBA will make it even easier to acquire free agents when above a set salary, and that is why trading a potentially cheap and controllable asset for a potential albatross is a BAD idea.

        Assuming this rumor holds any merit at all, I find it amusing that all the emphasis is on how worthless our #5 pick is. So worthless, indeed, that the Spurs would trade away a franchise point straight up. That either says something about the pick's value, Parker's value over the remaining years of his contract, or a bit of both. Don't get me wrong, but I'd sooner put my faith in the Spurs' front office than some random Dick or Jane on the Internet.

        While I'm hoping that one of DeRozan and Davis surprises me, I don't for a minute believe either player will definitely be an all-star caliber player. Throw Parker on this team and then what? I'll give you a six win improvement over a team without him, and even that's generous. Barring one of our prospects playing like an all-star, maybe in three years the Raptors make the playoffs as the 7th or 8th seed. Is that really more likely to convince DeRozan and Davis to stay, a team without much talent led by an aging point? No, the Raptors need all the chances they can get at good young talent that can grow with the current core. You get people to stay because the future looks bright, not because you tasted one or two first round exits and have more mediocrity on the horizon. Our future with Parker will be more Bobcats than Bulls.

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        • #34
          RaptorDan wrote: View Post
          I'd be very interested to see which player the Spurs would draft with the 5th - and then draft that guy.
          I actually suggest that very thing and even guess who that player might be....


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          • #35
            Quixotic wrote: View Post
            I normally have to preface my response with, "do you understand how the salary cap works?", but seeing as we have no idea what the new CBA will be like, I'll refrain. That said, I am highly doubtful that the new CBA will make it even easier to acquire free agents when above a set salary, and that is why trading a potentially cheap and controllable asset for a potential albatross is a BAD idea.

            Assuming this rumor holds any merit at all, I find it amusing that all the emphasis is on how worthless our #5 pick is. So worthless, indeed, that the Spurs would trade away a franchise point straight up. That either says something about the pick's value, Parker's value over the remaining years of his contract, or a bit of both. Don't get me wrong, but I'd sooner put my faith in the Spurs' front office than some random Dick or Jane on the Internet.

            While I'm hoping that one of DeRozan and Davis surprises me, I don't for a minute believe either player will definitely be an all-star caliber player. Throw Parker on this team and then what? I'll give you a six win improvement over a team without him, and even that's generous. Barring one of our prospects playing like an all-star, maybe in three years the Raptors make the playoffs as the 7th or 8th seed. Is that really more likely to convince DeRozan and Davis to stay, a team without much talent led by an aging point? No, the Raptors need all the chances they can get at good young talent that can grow with the current core. You get people to stay because the future looks bright, not because you tasted one or two first round exits and have more mediocrity on the horizon. Our future with Parker will be more Bobcats than Bulls.
            I understand how the cap works, and I know he's got 4 years, but Toronto has 2 players now locked up long term with less than desirable contracts. And if Colangelo was able to move Turk, then I don't think it'll be that hard to move one or both of Bargnani and Calderon.

            Also, (and although I'm guilty of doing this myself) I think it's really hard to say how many more wins one player will give you. The butterfly effect is hard to predict.

            All that being said, I do understand the hesitation of some to trade for Parker, I just think personally, this is a risk I'd be willing to take. I'm not saying it's certain he'll be the missing link for Toronto, but I'm thinking that the pick won't be such a stud as everyone is hoping, although I do admit that the pick's more manageable contract is valued financially.

            If Toronto is able to swap out Calderon's contract for Parkers, I think the financial hit is very much indeed diminished.
            Walking like I'm already there.

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            • #36

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              • #37
                10 000 Hours wrote: View Post
                All that being said, I do understand the hesitation of some to trade for Parker, I just think personally, this is a risk I'd be willing to take. I'm not saying it's certain he'll be the missing link for Toronto, but I'm thinking that the pick won't be such a stud as everyone is hoping, although I do admit that the pick's more manageable contract is valued financially.
                Upside of trading for Parker: team becomes an 8th seed, and is bounced in the first round of the playoffs.

                Downside: years of mediocrity, with no flexibility to improve.

                Upside of keeping the pick: potentially get an all-star caliber player that you can build a franchise around.

                Downside: draft a bust and team is in the same spot it is now.

                I'd lean towards keeping the pick...

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                • #38
                  10 000 Hours wrote: View Post
                  And I think excellent player is a bit of a stretch. I'm sure you can look back in previous drafts and find that teams have drafted people at the #5 and they turned out to be less than excellent.
                  Last few drafts at #5:
                  * DeMarcus Cousins
                  * Ricky Rubio
                  * Kevin Love

                  All players I would rather have as part of a rebuild than a 29-year old Parker.

                  Also, not to mention that Charles Barkley, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Dwayne Wade and Scottie Pippen were drafted at #5.

                  This doesn't guarantee that the pick will be a star, but it is high enough that there is the chance to draft a franchise-changer (which Parker, at this point in his career, is not).

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                  • #39
                    10 000 Hours wrote: View Post
                    I understand how the cap works, and I know he's got 4 years, but Toronto has 2 players now locked up long term with less than desirable contracts. And if Colangelo was able to move Turk, then I don't think it'll be that hard to move one or both of Bargnani and Calderon.

                    Also, (and although I'm guilty of doing this myself) I think it's really hard to say how many more wins one player will give you. The butterfly effect is hard to predict.

                    All that being said, I do understand the hesitation of some to trade for Parker, I just think personally, this is a risk I'd be willing to take. I'm not saying it's certain he'll be the missing link for Toronto, but I'm thinking that the pick won't be such a stud as everyone is hoping, although I do admit that the pick's more manageable contract is valued financially.

                    If Toronto is able to swap out Calderon's contract for Parkers, I think the financial hit is very much indeed diminished.

                    Just because Toronto has a couple undesirable contracts doesn't mean the team should take on more. And just because BC was able to unload an undesirable contract doesn't mean he will be able to move all undesireable contracts.

                    This is not a matter of expecting this pick to be great, or Parker to be terrible. Its a matter of adding a 29 year old player who relies almost exclusively on speed and quickness to a team that is looking to rebuild and years away from being competitive again.

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                    • #40
                      GarbageTime wrote: View Post
                      Just because Toronto has a couple undesirable contracts doesn't mean the team should take on more. And just because BC was able to unload an undesirable contract doesn't mean he will be able to move all undesireable contracts.

                      This is not a matter of expecting this pick to be great, or Parker to be terrible. Its a matter of adding a 29 year old player who relies almost exclusively on speed and quickness to a team that is looking to rebuild and years away from being competitive again.
                      Kidd used to be all about speed too. And while I'm not saying that Parker is as good as Kidd or that Parker will be playing when he's 38, what I am saying is that Parker's shooting ability has been improving and like most PGs will probably continue to improve as he continues to mature and develop his game to adjust to the changes in his body.

                      And I'd be shocked if Colangelo couldn't move at least one of Calderon or Bargnani.
                      Walking like I'm already there.

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                      • #41
                        Tim W. wrote: View Post
                        I started to write a long reply, but decided to post most of it on my blog, here:
                        http://www.wearingfilm.com/picketfen...r-be-a-raptor/

                        Basically, though, my problem with the trade is that is would probably give the Raptors 5-10 more wins. Great, so now they become a 27-32 win team? Maybe the rest of the team improves, too, giving them, maybe 5-10 more wins. That's a 42 win team, at best. Maybe they make the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed. Maybe. But unlike a much more talented team like Memphis, Toronto is going to be a first round casualty. So with a much lower pick, they aren't likely to find an impact player in the draft, and with Parker's contract, they won't have money to spend on a free agent. So the team has little chance to bring in any other players to improve the team, which leaves their best option to improve to be within the team.

                        I don't think there's many people that see either DeRozan or Davis as future elite players. Good ones, yes, but not elite players. And those two are probably going to be the two best players on the team 5 years from now. Unfortunately, because Parker has played so many games in his NBA career, he's likely going to start declining pretty soon. So by the time DeRozan and Davis are hitting their peak, Parker's probably just about done.

                        And since a team lead by DeRozan and Davis aren't going to be good enough to be a contender, the Raptors will probably continue to be a 7th or 8th seed for the foreseeable future.

                        So I don't think saying that a trade for Parker will doom the Raptors to mediocrity is a little dramatic. I'd say it's pretty damn accurate.
                        Wait a minute. Who's to say the Raps keep Porker for the full length of his contract? He becomes a very tradeable asset for years to come. Porker may add too many wins to expect lottery success next year, but the Raps can also trade many of their other ball players to compensate. What if the Raps could flip Derozan, Bargnani and Calderon in the same deal and get an all-star out of it? Now they've got 2 all-stars, and they still have Ed Davis. And they can still fake injuries and sit their arses down for 20 games next year to get into the lottery. Porker is a lot better than anyone they can get out of this year's crummy draft.

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                        • #42
                          10 000 Hours wrote: View Post
                          Kidd used to be all about speed too.
                          No, he didn't. Jason Kidd and Tony Parker are two entirely different players. Kidd wasn't a good shooter but was excellent at defense, rebounding and play making. Jason Kidd could make passes that Parker can only dream of. Jason Kidd's defense was better on a horrendous night than Tony Parker's on a outstanding night. There there's the rebounding, not even close.... Both have had clutch performances. Jason Kidd is a very large PG who's game has been excellent in the half court. He has never needed to be the fastest guy on the floor to control a game. At 38 he's a shadow of his former self but still effective because he's never depended on speed or athleticism to perform.

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                          • #43
                            I think Calderon is just as talented as Parker, or even more as a PG who improves team-mates. And if we have to take on another 29 year old PG with a large contract, I'd rather keep Calderon as he loves the city and plays hard. He's also a professional which is something I'll always respect.

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                            • #44
                              If the Spurs are going to take Calderon and the #5 and give up Parker and Splitter, I'd be on board. Parker still has good years left and if it means an upgrade from Calderon, I'm all for it. The last year of his contract is non-guaranteed, so really, he's got 3 seasons remaining. When he signed the contract in October, Spurs fans were quite elated at the deal. I mean, does Parker make this team better than Calderon would? I mean, over the next 2 seasons that Calderon is scheduled to be here, would you rather have Calderon at 20 million or Parker at 25 million?

                              However, if it's straight Parker for the #5, I'd pass and would rather take Valancuinas (the player whom the Spurs are in all liklihood coveting with that high lotto pick)
                              Last edited by MangoKid; Wed Jun 22, 2011, 10:35 AM.

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                              • #45
                                jeff_hostetler wrote: View Post
                                You know it's funny...for all the talk of this being a weak draft, there are an awful lot of championship calibre teams looking to trade cornerstones of their franchise to get into the lottery.
                                Jeff, I was thinking the same thing. I think it has more to do with this being a weak draft and thus more of the lottery teams being willing to trade out that usual. For example I'm sure in 2003 there were some championship caliber teams wanting to trade up, but there was just no chance any of those teams would even entertain the idea of trading down. But because it's such a weak draft for the first time those teams might consider a quick-fix option over a young prospect, even if it costs them a little extra coin.
                                your pal,
                                ebrian

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