Top prospects offering lots of risk ESPN Insider
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With the college basketball season behind us, you'd think that NBA scouts would have a firm grasp on the potential (or lack thereof) of every prospect in the draft.
You'd be wrong.
It's getting to be late April and scouts and GMs are still hotly debating the draft worthiness of a number of top prospects.
These players have amazing talent but also major question marks with huge draft ranges that swing Nos. 10 to 15 on our draft board. For them, the college season offered more questions than answers. And now, with NBA workouts getting ready to begin in a few weeks, they have yet another chance to dramatically improve or hurt their draft stock.
Here's a look at five players in our Top 20 who continue to inspire major disagreements in war rooms across the NBA.
Andre Drummond
The prosecution: Drummond was a major disappointment as a freshman. He disappeared for huge stretches, despite having a size and athletic advantage over virtually every player he faced. He lacks any sort of offensive refinement, is one of the most hideous free throw shooters to ever play the game and just doesn't look like he really loves to play.
The defense: Drummond is young (the second youngest player in his class). A broken nose before the season began really held back his development. He was in a horrible situation at UConn with two guards who refused to get him the ball. Defensively he was already very impressive and he has all the physical tools to be a dominant player offensively someday, too.
The verdict: He's a likely top-five pick. Some teams still have him rated as the No. 2 prospect in the draft. A small handful have him anywhere from the late lottery to mid-first round. The majority have him somewhere between Nos. 3 and 5 on their Big Boards. He's a risk (Kwame Brown anyone?) but GMs are usually willing to gamble on athletic bigs. Unless he's just awful in workouts, it's hard to see him sliding too far.
Perry Jones
The prosecution: Jones is a 2 guard trapped in a big man's body. At his size, he's too big to play the wing, but too soft to play in the post in the pros. Jones might be a tough kid off the court, but on it he too often shies away from contact and settles for shots that take him out of the fray. He's a nice kid who just plays too nice to ever make a difference in the NBA.
The defense: Baylor head coach Scott Drew just didn't know how to use Jones. Folks who have over-promised on what he can deliver at a young age have unfairly maligned him. Once he gets to the NBA, with more progressive offenses and coaches, the game will open up for him. He has the size, athleticism and skills to be a dominant wing player at the next level.
The verdict: Way too early to tell. A few veteran scouts swear he's the second best player in this draft and will be, at worst, Rudy Gay. A number of personnel people also said they wouldn't touch Jones anywhere within the first 10 picks of the draft. They believe his motor will never rev up. However, most guys sit somewhere in between and see him somewhere in the 6-to-12 range.
John Henson
AP Photo/Gerry Broome
Scouts love John Henson, but aren't sure how he fits in the NBA.
The prosecution: Henson is a player without a position in the NBA. He's too weak to guard the post and doesn't really have the feel for the wing. While he can cause problems on the defensive end, he doesn't really have one go-to move offensively.
The defense: Henson plays hard. He plays smart and he'll be able to guard multiple positions at the next level. While he might not be the most creative offensive player in the world, he scraps and doesn't need the ball to be effective.
The verdict: Whenever you hear scouts talk about him, they are generally positive about his game and the improvements he made. However, when you press a little further and ask them how he fits with their team, they balk. Again, I know a handful who prefer him to both Drummond and Jones. I know even more who don't have him as a serious lottery pick. I've stuck with Andrei Kirilenko as a comp for the past two years, and I still believe he's got the chance to be him at the next level.
Austin Rivers
The prosecution: Rivers is living off the hype he created in high school. He thinks he's Kobe Bryant, but lacks the explosive athletic ability that gives Bryant an edge. He struggles to contribute if the ball isn't in his hands. His cocky attitude won't play nearly as well at the next level.
The defense: Rivers can score as well as anyone in the draft. He's got a killer crossover, a quick first step and a very solid perimeter game. He needs refinement, but once he gets it, he could be one of the top scorers in the draft.
The verdict: All over the place. Some teams like him in the 6-to-10 range. Others in the 20-30 range. No kidding. Teams seem to love him or hate him. Workouts against the top talent in the draft could seal the deal either way for him.
Tony Wroten Jr.
The prosecution: Wroten is a selfish guard who tries too often to overpower his opponent. His game can kill team chemistry. To say his jump shot is broken would be an act of charity. It's ugly. His out-of-control game has the potential to spill over into other areas of his life.
The defense: The draft is devoid of talented point guards who could be franchise players. Wroten might be the only one who could be an All-Star someday -- if he settles down. His strength, his size, his athletic ability and aggressiveness make him, at the very least, another Tyreke Evans.
The verdict: Good luck. Most teams are scared to death of him. They love him, but very few seem to have the courage to take him over safer names like Kendall Marshall and Damian Lillard. Even Marquis Teague might pass him by draft night.
You'd be wrong.
It's getting to be late April and scouts and GMs are still hotly debating the draft worthiness of a number of top prospects.
These players have amazing talent but also major question marks with huge draft ranges that swing Nos. 10 to 15 on our draft board. For them, the college season offered more questions than answers. And now, with NBA workouts getting ready to begin in a few weeks, they have yet another chance to dramatically improve or hurt their draft stock.
Here's a look at five players in our Top 20 who continue to inspire major disagreements in war rooms across the NBA.
Andre Drummond
The prosecution: Drummond was a major disappointment as a freshman. He disappeared for huge stretches, despite having a size and athletic advantage over virtually every player he faced. He lacks any sort of offensive refinement, is one of the most hideous free throw shooters to ever play the game and just doesn't look like he really loves to play.
The defense: Drummond is young (the second youngest player in his class). A broken nose before the season began really held back his development. He was in a horrible situation at UConn with two guards who refused to get him the ball. Defensively he was already very impressive and he has all the physical tools to be a dominant player offensively someday, too.
The verdict: He's a likely top-five pick. Some teams still have him rated as the No. 2 prospect in the draft. A small handful have him anywhere from the late lottery to mid-first round. The majority have him somewhere between Nos. 3 and 5 on their Big Boards. He's a risk (Kwame Brown anyone?) but GMs are usually willing to gamble on athletic bigs. Unless he's just awful in workouts, it's hard to see him sliding too far.
Perry Jones
The prosecution: Jones is a 2 guard trapped in a big man's body. At his size, he's too big to play the wing, but too soft to play in the post in the pros. Jones might be a tough kid off the court, but on it he too often shies away from contact and settles for shots that take him out of the fray. He's a nice kid who just plays too nice to ever make a difference in the NBA.
The defense: Baylor head coach Scott Drew just didn't know how to use Jones. Folks who have over-promised on what he can deliver at a young age have unfairly maligned him. Once he gets to the NBA, with more progressive offenses and coaches, the game will open up for him. He has the size, athleticism and skills to be a dominant wing player at the next level.
The verdict: Way too early to tell. A few veteran scouts swear he's the second best player in this draft and will be, at worst, Rudy Gay. A number of personnel people also said they wouldn't touch Jones anywhere within the first 10 picks of the draft. They believe his motor will never rev up. However, most guys sit somewhere in between and see him somewhere in the 6-to-12 range.
John Henson
AP Photo/Gerry Broome
Scouts love John Henson, but aren't sure how he fits in the NBA.
The prosecution: Henson is a player without a position in the NBA. He's too weak to guard the post and doesn't really have the feel for the wing. While he can cause problems on the defensive end, he doesn't really have one go-to move offensively.
The defense: Henson plays hard. He plays smart and he'll be able to guard multiple positions at the next level. While he might not be the most creative offensive player in the world, he scraps and doesn't need the ball to be effective.
The verdict: Whenever you hear scouts talk about him, they are generally positive about his game and the improvements he made. However, when you press a little further and ask them how he fits with their team, they balk. Again, I know a handful who prefer him to both Drummond and Jones. I know even more who don't have him as a serious lottery pick. I've stuck with Andrei Kirilenko as a comp for the past two years, and I still believe he's got the chance to be him at the next level.
Austin Rivers
The prosecution: Rivers is living off the hype he created in high school. He thinks he's Kobe Bryant, but lacks the explosive athletic ability that gives Bryant an edge. He struggles to contribute if the ball isn't in his hands. His cocky attitude won't play nearly as well at the next level.
The defense: Rivers can score as well as anyone in the draft. He's got a killer crossover, a quick first step and a very solid perimeter game. He needs refinement, but once he gets it, he could be one of the top scorers in the draft.
The verdict: All over the place. Some teams like him in the 6-to-10 range. Others in the 20-30 range. No kidding. Teams seem to love him or hate him. Workouts against the top talent in the draft could seal the deal either way for him.
Tony Wroten Jr.
The prosecution: Wroten is a selfish guard who tries too often to overpower his opponent. His game can kill team chemistry. To say his jump shot is broken would be an act of charity. It's ugly. His out-of-control game has the potential to spill over into other areas of his life.
The defense: The draft is devoid of talented point guards who could be franchise players. Wroten might be the only one who could be an All-Star someday -- if he settles down. His strength, his size, his athletic ability and aggressiveness make him, at the very least, another Tyreke Evans.
The verdict: Good luck. Most teams are scared to death of him. They love him, but very few seem to have the courage to take him over safer names like Kendall Marshall and Damian Lillard. Even Marquis Teague might pass him by draft night.
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