2012 Draft Thursday, June 28th: Raptors select Terence Ross

[mcHAPPY]

To me, it's not a big mystery why guys like Austin Daye and Anthony Randolph never reached their "potential" in the NBA. When evaluating whether a player can make a successful NBA transition, I tend to think his weaknesses tell far more.

Let's look at Austin Daye's weaknesses, as listed on Draft Express:


I highlighted the red to show which one's are HUGE red flags for me. They're fatal flaws, as in flaws that are nearly impossible to change. Obviously it's not 100%, but if I'm looking at a player and he's got some of these flaws, I would pass. And I've almost never been wrong about guys like this.

Let's look at Anthony Randolph's weaknesses:


Again, you see a lot of those red flags. And they're hard to overlook. Especially when you've got so many of them. I can overlook a lack of intangibles of the guy plays hard and is a good defender, but he's got none of those.

Being successful in the NBA is hard. The more things you have working against you, the less likely you're going to be successful. And players who don't work hard, who don't understand the fundamentals and who don't have the mental toughness are most likely not going to succeed.

Anthony Davis has no red flags, as far as I see. He's skinny, but very young, so that's likely to change. He doesn't have a great post game, but since he was playing the guard position just two years ago, that's not really surprising. Besides, his ability to finish very well around the rim help a lot. And while he's physically weak, he doesn't shy away from contact and has shown good toughness.

Good post, Tim.

One addition to the skinny part: many have said he has a solid frame and that he should be able to fill it more in time. Given his late growth spurt, that is a high probability in my opinion.

A good comparison would be JV. If you take a look at some video from last year to now, while he is no Buff Bagwell, he certainly is looking stronger - a big part of that is physical maturation.

By the way Tim, you and I are agreeing too much of late. I still think they should trade Calderon.

[Tim W.]

It's the Bosh comparisons that turns me off. We've been there, the Raptors are strong in the paint now. If they get the top pick and Davis is the consensus #1 I'd rather see them try to trade down to get a guy like Barnes along with landing a good vet in the trade. This draft is not 2006. There looks to be a much stronger top ten and with a consensus 1 or 2 top picks. If the Raptors get the top spot again they will have leverage, unlike 2006 when you could argue four or five guys for the top pick.

If Davis is the consensus #1 pick and the Raptors get that pick you'd want to trade down? Wow. To me, that's a horrible strategy and recipe for disaster.

Whether you like it or not, success in the NBA usually comes down to how good your best player is. While Atlanta has a talented roster, they have a second round ceiling mainly because their best player is Joe Johnson. Turning down the best player in a strong draft is a decision that would haunt a team. I also can't believe a Raptor fan would do that considering what the team has been going through with Chris Bosh as the team's best player over those 6 years. While trading down CAN net a better player that's not usually the case, otherwise they would be drafted higher.

I don't want to watch Anthony Davis lead his team to the Finals in 5 years while we say "well, Barnes fit our team better and we already had some good big men, so we didn't need him".

[Joey]

I am sold on him being a Superstar if he reaches his potential. He needs time to adjust to his late growth spurt to hone his perimeter game and develop more of an inside game.

How many of these guys actually reach the "potential" they are told they possess?

That Potentail (read: expectations. Especially those layed out after 5 games) are usually way off, and based off some very general assumptions.
From what we've seen, yes Anthony Davis will likely get better.
But how much better, at this point, is just silly to try and predict. In my opinion.

Hasheem Thabeet has shown that just because you can block 5 shots a game over a whole season in the NCAA, doesn't mean you will come into NBA as a Defensive Force.

Anthony Randolph has shown that just because you are 6'10" and can dribble like a SG, and guard all 5 spots in the NCAA, doesn't mean you are going to change the game in the NBA.

[Joey]

I don't want to watch Anthony Davis lead his team to the Finals in 5 years while we say "well, Barnes fit our team better and we already had some good big men, so we didn't need him".

I don't want to watch Barnes lead his team to the Finals in 5 years while we say "well Davis was the consensus #1".

All opinion about how good you think each will be.
Which we've already established we disagree on.

[Tim W.]

This is my stance as well but when we're crowing him "the guy" right now while our toes are figuratively just testing the water, well, let's talk about the potential good and also the potential bad. If he is the next Kevin Garnett, they're still without a elite wing. I can't count off many teams in modern times who have won a ring without an elite guy coming off the wing who can create on offense and take on the opposing team's top wing on defense.

I'm not sold on him being a Superstar. Personally I'd like to see a lot more. I'd like to see the tournament. Tough pressure situations. What he does in the face of tense adversity? Those situations separate the Kobe Bryants from the Vince Carters.

I also can't count many teams ever that have not won without an elite player. And I think your issue with Davis is not that he's a big man, but, as you state, you're not sold on him being a superstar. To me, he's the guy with the MOST superstar potential. And more than anything that's what the Raptors need.

[Tim W.]

Good post, Tim.

One addition to the skinny part: many have said he has a solid frame and that he should be able to fill it more in time. Given his late growth spurt, that is a high probability in my opinion.

A good comparison would be JV. If you take a look at some video from last year to now, while he is no Buff Bagwell, he certainly is looking stronger - a big part of that is physical maturation.

By the way Tim, you and I are agreeing too much of late. I still think they should trade Calderon.

WHo the hell is Buff Bagwell???

[Tim W.]

How many of these guys actually reach the "potential" they are told they possess?

That Potentail (read: expectations. Especially those layed out after 5 games) are usually way off, and based off some very general assumptions.
From what we've seen, yes Anthony Davis will likely get better.
But how much better, at this point, is just silly to try and predict. In my opinion.

Hasheem Thabeet has shown that just because you can block 5 shots a game over a whole season in the NCAA, doesn't mean you will come into NBA as a Defensive Force.

Anthony Randolph has shown that just because you are 6'10" and can dribble like a SG, and guard all 5 spots in the NCAA, doesn't mean you are going to change the game in the NBA.

Again, if you looked at Randolph and Thabeet's flaws, it wouldn't have been surprising that they failed. I've already shown Randolph's, but let's look at Thabeet's:

- Lacks significant offensive polish
- Footwork/Post-moves
- Questionable hands
- Activity level
- Gets backed down in post
- Lateral quickness
- Man to man defense
- Basketball IQ
- Doesn't always play hard
- Question marks about true age
- Track record of African players
- Passing out of post
- Passing skills
- Core strength
- Poor rebounder

Right off the bat I'm questioning whether the guy is going to be successful in the NBA. A big man who was drafted for his defense (because he had little offense), but isn't a good man to man defender, isn't a good rebounder and doesn't have a high basketball IQ? Plus he doesn't always play hard? There's a good reason I (and a lot of others) thought Memphis were morons for taking him second in the draft.

Again you're ignoring a lot of you wonder why a lot of these guys didn't become successes in the NBA.

[Tim W.]

I don't want to watch Barnes lead his team to the Finals in 5 years while we say "well Davis was the consensus #1".

All opinion about how good you think each will be.
Which we've already established we disagree on.

Fair enough, but my point is that a team is never going to regret drafting the best player in a draft. They are going to regret passing up the best player because they didn't "need" his position.

[MangoKid]

I disagree on the Bosh comparison.

I've watched 2 full Kentucky games and he is not Bosh in my opinion. He is a much better defensive presence and he certainly does not shy away from contact in any way, shape, or form. His motor is non-stop when he plays.

His handle and passing skills are much better than Bosh but Bosh was a much better shooter at the same age.

It is still very early (Terrence Jones at this time last year, I was all over him) and things can and will change.

In my opinion though, you pick the best player available regardless of position and work out the roster later. If you trade down it better not be a Foye for Roy type deal.

Bosh had the exact same game at Georgia Tech. This is what sports illustrated had to say about Bosh when he was drafted by the Raptors:

It's little wonder Bosh turned pro after just one season in college. He reminds some observers of Kevin Garnett, and those comparisons are justified. He's not quite the perimeter threat Garnett is, but Bosh is an inside-outside scorer with great athleticism and a solid feel for the game. He handles the ball exceptionally well for his size and is also a good passer. Bosh is a defensive presence because he's an exceptional shot blocker. The knock on Bosh is his size.he's going to have to add bulk and strength in order to consistently do battle with NBA power forwards. One scout told Sports Illustrated: "He's more offensive-minded than Keon Clark was coming out of college, but he's not as hard-nosed as Brian Grant. I don't think he's as talented as Tyson Chandler, but he'll be better than Kwame Brown has been. When he develops, I think he'll be one of the league's top 10 power forwards, a 240-pounder who can score inside and outside."

POSITIVES: Bosh is quicker than nearly all of his counterparts at 6-10. He can snake through traffic for high-percentage shots around the bucket. Bosh also owns outstanding touch and wowed scouts as a freshman with deft 3-point shooting that nobody realized he had. He also contributes on the boards, despite his lack of strength, and is an outstanding shot-blocker.

NEGATIVES: For all he has going for him, Bosh owns a naturally thin body, and there are many questions surrounding whether he will ever be able to add the strength needed to become a star. Few doubt that Bosh will be a good player in the league, but when you are projected as a top-five selection, that is expected. He must overcome his speedy metabolism.

LINK

I'm not saying Anthony Davis is going to be the next Chris Bosh, but the comparisons to and skills coming out of college were quite similar.

[Tim W.]

Bosh had the exact same game at Georgia Tech. This is what sports illustrated had to say about Bosh when he was drafted by the Raptors:




LINK

I'm not saying Anthony Davis is going to be the next Chris Bosh, but the comparisons to and skills coming out of college were quite similar.

To be fair, Bosh is a 6 time All-Star and a top 15-20 player in the league. The problem Toronto had with Bosh was that he was the best player the team had and the only All-Star the team could put on the floor.

Besides, those are rather superficial comparisons. Davis has shown to be a far bigger impact on the defensive end than Bosh ever did at Georgia Tech. And Davis also sees the floor like a guard, meaning he can make those around him better. If Bosh had the defensive and passing instincts that Davis has shown, then I think it's safe to say he would have been an even better NBA player.

[mcHAPPY]

How many of these guys actually reach the "potential" they are told they possess?

Very few. You need to have the mental mindset to reach your full potential. Few players have it. From all accounts Anthony Davis does. He is very teachable and coachable and works extremely hard.

That Potentail (read: expectations. Especially those layed out after 5 games) are usually way off, and based off some very general assumptions.
From what we've seen, yes Anthony Davis will likely get better.
But how much better, at this point, is just silly to try and predict. In my opinion.

I've said numerous times a lot can and probably will happen between now and March Madness - and certainly by the draft in June (hopefully). However there are many, many draft sites, analysts, and unidentified GM's who are drooling over this guy - take it all with a grain of salt of course.

Hasheem Thabeet has shown that just because you can block 5 shots a game over a whole season in the NCAA, doesn't mean you will come into NBA as a Defensive Force.

You can't compare a Ferrari to a Fiat.

Anthony Randolph has shown that just because you are 6'10" and can dribble like a SG, and guard all 5 spots in the NCAA, doesn't mean you are going to change the game in the NBA.

Tim made a very good post that addresses any comparison to Anthony Randolph.



In looking at future prospects of very talented players there are two things that are hard to quantify and evaluate but they are extremely important, in my opinion. Those are:

1) character: Davis, Sullinger, Barnes all appear to have great character and work ethic, and

2) the 'it' factor: you know, like some guys just have it. Time will tell who in this draft class has 'it' but from early indications Anthony Davis certainly is one of those type of rare players.

[mcHAPPY]

Bosh had the exact same game at Georgia Tech. This is what sports illustrated had to say about Bosh when he was drafted by the Raptors:




LINK

I'm not saying Anthony Davis is going to be the next Chris Bosh, but the comparisons to and skills coming out of college were quite similar.

I cannot clearly recall watching Bosh at Georgia Tech. I do recall Bosh for 7 years as a Raptor though. In comparing Bosh's career with the Raptors to the 2 games I've seen in the last couple of weeks for Anthony Davis, outside of position and being thin, I'm seeing few similarities.

But this is only my opinion.

[Tim W.]

I just came across this video of Kentucky playing Morehead College in an exhibition game. I didn't hear about this game before, but the two things of interest to me, watching it, were some of the plays Davis made and the score- at one point it was 60-6 (that's not a typo)**Edit** 63-6.



Davis' background playing guard really shows through in these clips. That's one place where the Bosh comparisons fail completely. Unfortunately I don't see him really developing those skills much on Kentucky. If were to have gone to a lesser school, I can see them being developed more out of necessity. On Kentucky, they only need him to play his role, not be the man.

[Hugmenot]

How many of these guys actually reach the "potential" they are told they possess?

That Potentail (read: expectations. Especially those layed out after 5 games) are usually way off, and based off some very general assumptions.

Is potential the same as expectations? Not from my viewpoint but then again, it is possible some nba draft site rates prospects based upon the potential they are likely to achieve (as opposed to true ceiling which is how good a prospect will be if the dice are loaded).

There will always be situations where prospect A has a higher ceiling than prospect B but prospect B is likely to be a more effective player than player A. Which one should you draft in this case?

Like many of my answers, I'd say it depends on the distribution curves of the projection of the prospect as pro, the risk-aversion level of the GM, the possibility to find another prospect/free-agent with a similar (even if lower) distribution, and other factors.

Keep in mind the GMs of the teams drafting very high are under a tremendous amount of pressure to turn things around quickly and will gamble on a prospect with a potentially higher ceiling than other prospects that are likely to be better players than the Chosen One. Just swinging for the fences in order to try to keep their jobs.

Keep in mind also if a GM drafts prudently and the higher ceiling prospect who slipped past his team realizes a good proportion of his potential, the GM will have to face the owner, fans, and media to explain why he did not draft said player.

From reading your posts on this thread, I assume you perceive Harrison Barnes to likely develop into the better when compared to any other prospect. It's certainly a valid position iin my opinion but it goes against the risk-taking approach most prefer.

[Hugmenot]

let's look at Thabeet' ...

You forgot what is usually your main argument:

Thabeet’s an incredibly efficient player at 65% from the field

Instead of (trivially) predicting the present based upon past indicators, can you list the 2011-12 draftees which will fail based upon these indicators?

It would be interesting to check in a year or two if indeed these indicators have potential value.