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2012 Draft Thursday, June 28th: Raptors select Terence Ross

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  • j_hoss' Too-Legit-to-Quit Mock Draft

    Let's get too it. You'll all re-read this on June 29th and be amazed by the ridiculous accuracy of the following (at least, up until the 7th pick.)
    ______________________

    Hornets: Davis

    Bobcats: T-Rob
    Bobcats are last in points scored and 2nd last in rebounds. Robinson is the obvious choice to start correcting those numbers, as those are his two biggest strengths. Not only that, but the 4 spot in Charlotte is not only their weakest but it's also the thinnest - with both White and Najera entering free agency. A core of Walker-Robinson-Biyombo is not a bad restart for a team. I really like this pick for Charlotte, and barring them trading their pick, I think it's the one that will happen.

    Wizards: Beal
    No MKG in the top 3. Of all the players most likely to fall, it's Kidd-Gilchrist. He's too much of a specialist to be taken so high in this draft. While MKG might seem to be a logical pick for the Wiz based on his ability to start turning around their broken culture, the 3 spot in Washington is already jam-packed with prospects and unmovable contracts - namely, Singleton, Vesely and Lewis. Singleton and Vesely were both picks from last year's draft. They won't draft a third SF in two years (especially when Singleton has so similar a skill set to MKG). No, where Washington really could use some help is some b-ball IQ and versatility at the 2 spot. Enter Bradley Beal. He can shoot, pass, rebound and defend. He's the absolutely perfect backcourt partner for John Wall. When Wall drives, he'll have a lights out option for the kick out 3 in Beal. They can both play as the primary ball-handler, allowing the team to create frequent game-planning headaches for all opposing teams.

    Cavs: Barnes
    Not much to say here. Unless the Cav's repeatedly rumoured interest in Barnes is a smoke-screen of epic proportions, with Beal off the board, Barnes is very likely the guy for Cleveland. They'll have two high quality 3 point shooters in the backcourt with Irving and Barnes. Plus, Irving is such a fantastic PG - he's specifically the kind of player who will allow Barnes to play to his strengths.

    Kings: Kidd-Gilchrist
    With so many players in this draft being so similar in quality, positional need ought to play a bigger-than-normal-role in the "best player available" philosophy. So...how is Sacramento's biggest position of need reflected by who's left on the board? This is 100% dependent upon what they're going to do with Tyreke Evans. If they want to change their culture around - which they very much need to do - drafting Andre Drummond would be a mistake. While an Evans-Cousins-Drummond frontcourt is far and away the best 3-4-5 the team could hope for in terms of raw talent and potential, I think the chemistry issues would be significant. The trio would either be a phenom of "we're so much better than you it's not even funny" or a disaster heretofore unforseen since the likes of last years Washington Wizards. I don't have a clue what Sacramento management is thinking, but, if I were in charge, I'd take MKG and put Evans on the block for good. I've no doubt Evans could return good assets - for example a high-character, good-quality big plus a future pick (both of which they would still need to continue their rebuild). MKG's role would be to become the floor-leader and glue guy SAC is in dire-straights for. His lack of shooting is well compensated for by the presence of Thornton, Thomas and Fredette. The Kings are in a better position than almost anybody to be able to get the most out of the positives that MKG brings (which are numerous).

    Trailblazers: Drummond
    The dream scenario for Portland. Even less to say about this pick than Cleveland taking Harrison Barnes. Portland announces this pick approximately 6 seconds before they're even put on the clock.

    Warriors: Perry Jones III
    Admittedly, I'm not really sure at all what's going on with this pick. I do though think that Golden State will be more likely to draft based on potential than others. I just see them as that kind of team right now. Which is why I think Perry Jones is their guy. They're set at 5, 4, 2 and 1. That leaves a 3. PJII can also slide to the 4 when Bogut inevitably goes down with some new kind of freak injury. I've had this feeling that Jones would end up in Golden State since long before the lottery was held. In my mind it just makes sense. Take that, age of reason!

    Raptors: Damian Lillard
    I can't think of a single team whose pick is harder to mock. Who knows whether or not Toronto will even make this pick? Nobody - not even Toronto management. Certainly not Chad Ford. I'm sorry, but there's just no flippin' way that, if Toronto does indeed keep their pick, they're picking Dion Waiters. It's just not happening. Ditto Jeremy Lamb. He's not the guy, and Tim Chisolm pretty clearly laid out all the reasons why (for the record, he reiterated many things I already felt), so I'm not gonna bother here. If the Raptors keep their pick, in my mind it's between Damian Lillard, Terrence Ross, and Moe Harkless. Of course, if either Ross or Harkless is the pick, it won't be at 8, so, again, it would seem to demand that Toronto somehow trades their pick. This leaves Damian Lillard. I'm not saying he will be the guy who ends up in T.O. What I'm saying is that if Toronto does legitimately pick at 8 (that is - for themselves) it will be Lillard's name that gets called.

    A legitimate argument against Lillard goes that Lillard and Bayless are such similar players, why take Lillard when there is a need pretty much everywhere else? My counters are simple: 1) BPA, fool; and 2) Bayless is too injury prone to be dependable in the short and long term. Further, keeping Bayless likely means many more dollars spent than would otherwise be on Lillard. I’m a big, big Bayless fan. It’s the injuries, man. Injury prone players are wasted dollars and roster spots. As good as Andrew Bogut is, for example, I wouldn’t want him on my team because he just doesn’t stay on the floor.

    Lillard brings a number of other positives to the team. For example, he fits in with B.C.’s and Casey’s desire to field an experienced team with the hopes of competing in the post-season. Yes Lillard is a rookie, but he’s a three-year college player with transferable NBA skills (deep, deep 3 point range/low-turnover rate), not a one-and-done prospect. Further, taking Lillard means keeping Calderon for the year, with Lillard learning from the bench from a master of the NBA pick and roll - an area where Lillard reportedly needs a lot of work. Given that the PnR is Valanciunas’ bread and butter, such skills are vital to both rookies’ successful integration into the offense. Or it means moving/amnestying Calderon to make room for Steve Nash. Either way, the same argument holds.

    I really like Lillard, but I don’t think he’s “the guy” the Raptors need to turn around their franchise and help them become legit contenders, which, to me, is the only end to building a team in any professional sport. That being said, I don’t think there is “that guy” available at 8. So Lillard is about as good as it’s going to get here. I do think though that he’s good enough to start on a playoff team and is the kind of player who can help a team win.

    *Wildcard pick*
    Dion Waiters. Why Waiters when I said above, "I'm sorry, but there's just no flippin' way that, if Toronto does indeed keep their pick, they're picking Dion Waiters?" Because I'm an amateur, mother******s. What do I really know about anything? Exactly. And besides, Waiters actually does hold promise as a 6th man/go-to guy in crunch time. All teams need one, the Raps don't have anyone close. Plus, it allows the Raps to eventually explore Derozan trades if they feel it's necessary without definitely requiring another SG in return. Further, Damien Lillard is my wildcard pick for the Warriors - Steph Curry injury insurance, basically (as a side note...Steph Curry & Andrew Bogut on the same team? GSW for the loss. Might as well just throw in Vince Carter circa his whole career and Jermaine O'Neal for good measure).
    Last edited by jeff_hostetler; Fri Jun 15, 2012, 05:00 PM.

    Comment


    • I like Lillard fine, but I wonder why people are still not keying in on the fact that he is much more experienced than other options being discussed. He has had four years of college. Even though he was a medical red-shirt during one of them, he had training camp and was able to mature in his understanding of the game that year.

      When projecting players, it's important to think how they would compare at the same point in their development. Think about how a player like Austin Rivers might be producing in three years from now in college.

      Just something to think about with Lillard. He's a much more mature player who has had 3 more years to work on his game than a number of the prospects.

      Comment


      • Bouncepass wrote: View Post
        When projecting players, it's important to think how they would compare at the same point in their development. Think about how a player like Austin Rivers might be producing in three years from now in college.

        Just something to think about with Lillard. He's a much more mature player who has had 3 more years to work on his game than a number of the prospects.
        It's a good point. Another factor you ahve to consider is context. Using Rivers as an example, he was basically asked to carry the offense for Duke cause they didn't have anyone else that could make plays or create scoring opps. That's a heavy burden for a freshman. A guy like Lamb played on a dysfunctional UConn team, which had to adversely affect his performance.

        Obviously, looking at production is important and metrics/stats should not be dismissed but you still need to have a quality scouting dept that can add value in terms of analyzing potential and skill-level.

        Comment


        • @Jeff - I could definitely see the draft going that way, but wouldn't be suprised to see Robinson/Beal switch spots. I could see Jordan falling in love with a scoring SG who has great court vision.

          If Robinson doesn't get picked 2nd/3rd, I think he'll fall all the way to #7, as the teams picking 4-6 are all set at PF. He could be the biggest wildcard.

          My expected outcomes for top-7 picks:
          1) Davis, Beal/MKG, MKG/Beal, Barnes, Drummond, Lillard, Robinson
          2) Davis, Beal, Robinson, Barnes, MKG/Drummond, MKG/Drummond/Lillard, MKG/Drummond/*
          3) Davis, MKG, Robinson, Beal/Barnes, Barnes/Drummond, Beal/Barnes/Drummond/Lillard, Beal/Barnes/Drummond/*

          * The only player I can foresee falling out of the top-7, to the Raptors, is Lillard
          2) If Sac/Por draft MKG/Drummond (either order), leaving Lillard to fall to GS, I think GS will draft Sullinger/PJIII
          3) If Cle/Sac/Por draft Beal/Barnes/Drummond (any order), leaving Lillard to fall to GS, I think GS will draft Sullinger/PJIII


          I think Toronto comes away with Lillard or a 2nd tier talent (ie: Lamb, Rivers, Waiters, Marshall, PJIII), or trades down/out of the draft (possibly to still get the 2nd tier talent they like).

          Comment


          • Maybe I'm being too pessimistic here, but I really think the Raps got boned in this draft.

            The best players, IMO are ranked 1-7 (I'd pass on Drummond personally, but I'd put him in that class). The Raptors got the 8th pick after our D league team trashed NJ's D league team, and after we lost the coin flip to GSW.

            If we lost to NJ we would have picked 6th and had a chance at going for guys like Barnes/Beal/MKG/TRob/Lillard.

            If we won the flip to GSW we'd get a guy like Lillard or a guy like Drummond who would fetch some great assets in a trade.

            If NJ did not make that stupid trade for Wallace with Portland, then NJ would pick 6th. They believe they have a PG.. so they'd most likely pass on Lillard, and we wouldn't have to worry about Portland drafting him.

            Toronto always seems to get the worst breaks.. but I'm looking through my Raptor coloured glasses I guess.

            I felt the same way last year when we dropped two spots.. we did end up with JV though. So come draft day, I'm putting my rose coloured glasses back on, and will chuck my other ones

            I'm just hoping teams like Sacramento or GSW draft guys like Rivers or PJ3.. if I hear their names called before the Raps are on the clock, I'll be doing a happy dance.

            Comment


            • For those (above) expressing some doubt about Lillard's pick & roll capabilities....not true according to some of the reports I have seen. Here is DX's portion specifically to the point....

              "The large emphasis of the pick-and-roll game in today's NBA bodes well for Lillard, as he's shown to be very effective as the ball-handler in pick-and-roll situations. His ability to smoothly pull up off the dribble from deep range makes it difficult for his defenders to go underneath the screen, while his burst off the dribble allows him to turn the corner quickly and get into the paint."

              I have seen similar type evaluations elsewhere.

              http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...-Lillard-6152/

              Comment


              • planetmars wrote: View Post
                I'm just hoping teams like Sacramento or GSW draft guys like Rivers or PJ3.. if I hear their names called before the Raps are on the clock, I'll be doing a happy dance.
                If I hear any names outside that list of top-7 prospects called before Toronto is on the clock - I don't care what team and/or what player - I'll be up doing my happy dance with you! As long as it's not Drummond or Robinson dropping to us, because we already have Valanciunas and a whole glut of PF (I still see big things ahead for Bargnani)... but if any of Beal, Barnes, MKG or Lillard fall to #8, I'll be up doing a happy dance that makes you proud! haha

                Comment


                • Sullinger and PJ3 seem to be the "X-factors" on a lot of mocks right now... here's hoping that at least one of them squeezes into the top 7.
                  “Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are.”
                  ― John Wooden

                  Comment


                  • If the Raptors were to select Perry Jones everyone would have to accept the idea that the guy would probably have a Bargnani-like growth curve. That would no doubt frustrate many.

                    I think there is potential for the Raptors to land a future stud PG at #8. They could then flip Calderon between now and the trade deadline to snag a veteran piece(wing) to help the young guys. Kirk Hinrich would be a great target in FA should they move Calderon and draft a PG.

                    Comment


                    • Lillard is all star PG material and I'd be really happy to get him. I hope he drops to us

                      Comment


                      • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                        If Robinson doesn't get picked 2nd/3rd, I think he'll fall all the way to #7, as the teams picking 4-6 are all set at PF. He could be the biggest wildcard.
                        SAC could most definitely use Robinson. He'd be a huge upgrade over Jason Thompson. For him to be available at 5, Beal, Barnes & Gilchrist would all likely be off the board. Between Drummond and Robinson, I think SAC takes Robinson.

                        Comment


                        • Listening to Barnes' interview I get the feeling that he is not all that confident of getting picked early (hence the visit here). I really believe there are going to be a few surprises above us which makes it imperative imo that BC should not do any deal with the pick until draft night (if he must) 'cause.....

                          1 week to go!!

                          Edit...oops getting ahead of myself aren't we?
                          Last edited by Bendit; Fri Jun 15, 2012, 07:56 PM.

                          Comment


                          • Here is the NBA draft video for Royce White, the rich man's Boris Diaw as Bill Simmons calls him.

                            Comment


                            • QUICK HITS: Among the draft’s risers are Duke center Mason Plumlee, now a legitimate first-round candidate; St. John’s small forward Moe Harkless, who could now go in the teens, and Syracuse center Fab Melo, who has impressed teams with his athleticism and is now a solid late first-round selection. Among the sliders are Ohio State power forward Jared Sullinger who has some NBA personnel concerned about his back issues, and Baylor power forward Perry Jones, whose perceived passive, non-aggressive manner has turned off several teams. At one time, both Jones and Sullinger were considered locks to be top 10 picks. That isn’t the case anymore. ... Boston, Houston, Portland, Memphis and Oklahoma City are definitely open to trading their picks. … The Bucks have yet to have any in-depth discussions with Bill Duffy about extending Brandon Jennings’ contract. Duffy represents the Bucks’ starting point guard.


                              http://journaltimes.com/sports/baske...a4bcf887a.html

                              Comment


                              • NBA.com's Consensus Mock Draft

                                Consensus Mock Draft: After Davis, not much is clear
                                By Drew Packham, NBA.com
                                Posted Jun 14 2012 2:18PM - Updated Jun 15 2012 1:12AM
                                The Consensus Mock Draft is a compilation of the best mock drafts around the web. We bring them together to come up with a good estimate of how the 2012 NBA Draft could play out.

                                A few things of note in the first look at the mock drafts:

                                • Anthony Davis is the only real consensus, going No. 1 on all 11 of the mocks so far.No other player appears in a slot more than five times, which could make for an exciting draft night.

                                • Six players appear in the Lottery on all 11 mock drafts: Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal, Andre Drummond, Harrison Barnes and Damian Lillard. Jared Sullinger is on 11 of the 12 (NBA.com's Scott Howard Cooper left him out).

                                Be sure to bookmark this page and check back regularly as the Consensus will be updated periodically.

                                The Consensus Mock Draft is a compilation of the best mock drafts around the web. We bring them together to come up with a good estimate of how the draft could play out.
                                Most Common Picks
                                1. NOH Davis (11) 8. TOR Waiters (3)
                                2. CHA Robinson (5) 9. DET Henson (3)
                                3. WAS Robinson, Beal (4) 10. NOH Lillar (4)
                                4. CLE Barnes (5) 11. POR Ross (3)
                                5. SAC Barnes (4) 12. MIL Leonard (4)
                                6. POR Drummond (5) 13. PHX Rivers (5)
                                7. GSW Jones (3) 14. HOU Leonard (3)

                                Most common: Pick at which the player is most commonly projected, with number of mock drafts in parentheses. For example, Anthony Davis is projected to go first in 12 of the mock drafts listed below.

                                Top 14: To calculate the consensus, we awarded 14 points for the first overall pick, 13 to the second, continuing to 1 for the final lottery pick. The player with the highest point total represents the top overall selection.
                                What I found with the consensus draft is that the break in talent seems to be in between the 7th and 8th spots (thanks coin toss). Here are the top 7:

                                1. Davis (PF)
                                2. Robinson (PF)
                                3. Kidd-Gilchrist (SF)
                                4. Beal (SG)
                                5. Barnes (SF)
                                6. Drummond (C)
                                7. Lillard (PG)

                                What I noticed is that by this time in the draft the top player at each position has been selected. That means that you are now arguably settling for 2nd tier players. Here are 8-14:

                                8. Sullinger
                                9. Jones
                                10. Lamb
                                11. Waiters
                                12. Zeller
                                13. Marshall
                                14. Henson

                                It is frustrating to think that a couple months ago it seemed we were assured of someone in that top grouping; however, it now may be that we have to choose from this second grouping. I hope Colangelo is right when he said that Toronto may be the first team that will be looking to draft a PG and we do draft Lillard.

                                Check back for updates: http://www.nba.com/2012/news/feature...aft/index.html
                                Last edited by The Coach; Sat Jun 16, 2012, 11:40 AM.
                                “Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are.”
                                ― John Wooden

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