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2012 Draft Thursday, June 28th: Raptors select Terence Ross

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  • ceez wrote: View Post
    thar she blows
    I find it funny that ESPN charges for insights that tell you that the Raptors have interest in Waiters, Lillard, Lamb and Rivers, assuming none of the consensus top-6 prospects (Davis, Beal, MKG, Barnes, Robinson, Drummond) are available. Come to RR and get such insight for free! lol

    I could see the Raptors keeping the pick to draft Lillard, but also see the benefits of trading down a few spots to hopefully pickup an asset in addition to a player like Rivers, who could be available 3-7 spots after #8.

    Perhaps the Raptors make a deal with Houston, along these lines:
    To Houston - #8 & #37 and/or #56
    To Toronto - Lowry & #14
    --> Toronto could then possibly target Rivers with #14, allowing them to get a young PG and the wing they like

    So many possibilities....

    Comment


    • well it appears to have worked, so...

      edit: in reference to mediumcore's post
      @sweatpantsjer

      Comment


      • It sort of goes to show how things get so over blown this time of year. A player sneezes wrong and his draft stock could take a dive.

        Comment


        • Mediumcore wrote: View Post
          It sort of goes to show how things get so over blown this time of year. A player sneezes wrong and his draft stock could take a dive.
          I'm not sure how much players' actual draft stock change. Scouts and GMs probably already have a pretty good idea of their priorities, but reporters can jump all over the place trying to read the minds of the GMs.

          Comment


          • ceez I feel like you avatar is staring into my soul whenever I look at it..

            Comment


            • By the Numbers: The 2012 Guard Crop

              Breaking down the Guard Crop number wise. I know numbers are only one side of the story but, I've learned a lot from these numbers. I basically just focused on three players though. Damian Lillard, Austin Rivers and Dion Waiters.

              1. That Dion Waiters has serious potential to be a Point Guard and his better advertised as a defender. Came way the most impressed with him after this.
              2. Austin Rivers should never play Point Guard! Not as great of a scorer as advertised. All together not impressed with at all anymore.
              3. Damian Lillard very much as advertised. Opinion didn't change a bit on him.

              It's long try to cut it down as much as I could.

              Points Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

              This stat tells us plainly how often these guards put the ball in the basket, adjusting for minutes played and pace, which levels the playing field as best it can without taking competition-level, individual team roles, and teammates into consideration. This is a good place to start with this group of players, as it shows the rather polar contrast between the top prospects at this position.

              Anything above 20 points per-40 pace adjusted is considered fairly impressive at most levels of basketball.

              Interestingly, we find the two most highly touted guards in this class at the top and bottom of these rankings. Damian Lillard's scoring numbers are right on par with Jimmer Fredette's and Andrew Goudelock's from last season's draft class, and while scouts will question the level of competition he faced in the Big Sky, his ability to score on the pick and roll and hit shots with range make him possibly the most dynamic offensive threat in low major college hoops last season.

              On the other side of the spectrum, we find Kendall Marshall, arguably the most valuable cog for Roy Williams's 2012 Tar Heel squad. Obviously, Marshall makes his presence felt in other ways, but his ability to improve as a scorer, especially as a set shooter, will have an impact on just how valuable he can be at the next level

              Rounding out the top five are Big East standouts Dion Waiter and Darius Johnson-Odom. Waiters may ultimately land in the same draft range as Lillard and his tremendous strength for a guard and scoring instincts could allow him to make an impact on the offense end, especially in transition, early in his career.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yGhrsJF9
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              Damian Lillard was #1 with 27.7, Dion Waiters #4 with 21.2


              Three Point Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

              This stat tells us a lot about the role these prospects played for their respective teams, the confidence they had in their perimeter shooting ability, and the freedom they were given by their former coaches.

              Casper Ware was the most aggressive shooter in this group, conjuring memories of his prolific scoring outings against Pittsburgh and North Carolina early this season. Joining Ware in the top-5 are Terrell Stoglin, Marcus Denmon, and Dee Bost. Denmon is the truest shooting guard of the three, spending the majority of his time setting his feet and waiting for the ball to be delivered while Bost and Stoglin were often creating their own looks for beyond the arc. Damian Lillard places third here, and the improvements he made with his shooting consistency between his junior and senior seasons are a testament to his work ethic.

              Austin Rivers, Doron Lamb, and Dion Waiters all rank right in the middle of the pack. Rivers and Waiters both showed fairly versatile offensive games and were not overly reliant on forcing the action from deep, while Lamb's attempts per-game were limited by his relatively small role with the Wildcats relative to other prospects.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yGk1fqT0
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              Damian Lillard 3rd, 8.1. Austin Rivers 9th, with 5.4. Dion Waiters 11th, with 5.1.

              Three Point Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt

              This stat examines how heavily these guards relied on the 3-ball to score, which is a good indicator of the roles each prospect played last season, but is an indirect gauge of how well each of them got to the rim as well. Players which attempted a large proportion of their shots from beyond the arc may have some deficiencies in terms of size, ball-handling ability, athleticism, aggressiveness, or shot-selection. Or they simply could be outstanding shooters. Every player should be judged individually in this regard.

              Andrew Albicy makes an appearance in the top-5 here. The diminutive French point guard made progress with his floater and ability to finish around the rim this season, but still has to rely heavily on his 3-point shot to score from the perimeter. He is a capable shooter from distance, but struggles when forced to make something happen in a pinch and shoot over the defense. Damian Lillard rounds out the top-5, with fewer than half of his shots coming from beyond the arc.

              On the other side of the spectrum, we find Marquis Teague and Tony Wroten, whose lack of confidence in their perimeter jump-shot is reflected in their placing on this list. We find the top guards in this group ranked all over the board here, with Austin Rivers and Doron Lamb being more prone to shoot the three than Tyshawn Taylor and Dion Waiters.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yGmGkr8d
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 5th, with 0.46. AR 12th, with 0.4. DW 17th, with 0.32.

              Free Throw Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

              Free throws attempted per-40 minutes is a good statistic to measure the aggressiveness of a player getting to the rim, as well as his athleticism and ball-handling skills. In some ways, it provides an inverse look at the three-point stats we just looked at.

              And as would seem appropriate, the least prolific shooter in this group, Tony Wroten, jumps to the top of this list, posting a mark that would have placed him ahead of Kyrie Irving last season. The Washington product is joined by Damian Lillard in a tier well above the third place finisher Tu Holloway. Wroten's ability to beat his man off the dribble and get into the lane and wreak havoc in transition is clearly a major part of his value proposition. The upside he has thanks to his size and assertiveness make the development of his jump shot that much more significant given how it would open up his game.

              Lillard's ability to draw contact in the lane is a big reason he ranked as the most prolific scorer in this group, as it complements his potent shooting. Rarely do you see a guard who is both a dead-eye 3-point shooter as well as a prolific foul-drawer, which is one of the reasons Lillard is so intriguing, despite the level of competition he played against.

              Tu Holloway and Terrell Stoglin comprise the second tier of guards, sitting a ways ahead of Austin Rivers who makes his first appearance in the top-5. Rivers had some well-documented issues translating his dribble-drive game to the college level, but he improved as the season went on and was not shy about taking contact in the paint.

              Dion Waiters and Doron Lamb sit right around average here, as their perimeter-oriented roles on high-quality teams play against them.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yGnxhgyC
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 2nd, with 9.1. AR 5th, with 6.3. DW 13th, 5.4.

              Free Throw Attempts Per Possession

              Even though Free Throws Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted tells us how much a player attacks in bulk, it doesn't show how much they attack relative to their usage rate. This stat tells that story.

              Damian Lillard and Tony Wroten come back down to earth a bit here, while Tu Holloway and Kostas Sloukas jump into the top-5. Tu Holloway is as crafty and tough a midrange scorer as could be found in college basketball last season, and while he did not use quite as many possessions as Lillard, he drew fouls at an excellent rate, especially in transition.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yGpbWCof
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 4th, with 0.42. AR 5th, with 0.38. DW 16th, with 0.3.

              True Shooting Percentage

              True Shooting Percentage is adjusted to account for what a player adds to their efficiency and team's point total with free throw attempts and 3-pointers. This stat attempts to adjust for all the ways a player can put points on the board.

              Damian Lillard, Doron Lamb, and Marcus Denmon comprise the first tier of NCAA prospects in terms of true shooting, which should come as no surprise. This metric is often dominated by the NCAA's top shooters, and while there is not one clear-cut elite specialist in this group, each of the three players above can fill it up from deep.

              Dion Waiters, Kendall Marshall, and Austin Rivers occupy the middle of the pack. Though each played significantly different roles for their respective teams, they all have some strengths and weaknesses that limit them here. Waiters scored with solid efficiency from all over the floor, but did not attempt many three-pointers, Marshall did not stand out as a scorer in any one area, and Rivers' early struggles and inconsistent shooting with his feet set are checkmated by his ability to get to the line.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yGqxpMDA
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 2nd, with 64%. AR 13th, with 55%. DW 10th, with 57%.

              Assists Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

              Tony Wroten and Damian Lillard share the middle of the pack here, and only rank slightly ahead of Dion Waiters, despite the Syracuse standout spending significant time off the ball. Wroten had some nice moments threading the ball through traffic, but struggled mightily with his decision-making for stretches. Lillard was seldom looking to pass the ball by design last season, while Waiters showed excellent court vision and decisiveness making plays for his teammates when he drew additional defenders. His ability to spend some time at the point guard position is one of the aspects of his game most worth watching early in his NBA development.

              Austin Rivers and Doron Lamb rank in the bottom-5 here, though both players did show some ability handling the ball and making decisions on the pick and roll.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yGt6I800
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 10th, 4.5. AR 21st, 2.4. DW 14th, with 4.2

              Turnovers Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

              Dion Waiters, Doron Lamb, and Marcus Denmon rank among the least turnover prone players in this group. All three provided significant value to their teams in spot-up situations and were not placed in position to coughing the ball up at a high rate because of that.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yGunbJB8
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 19th, with 2.6. AR 17th, with 2.7. DW 21st, with 2.2.

              Assist to Turnover Ratio

              Kostas Sloukas is not a dynamic playmaker, but much like his TS%, this is yet another reminder of his ability to play low-mistake basketball within his skill set. Dion Waiters and Dee Bost round out the top-5, and impressive feat for two players who did as much scoring as they did last season.

              Marquis Teague and Damian Lillard sit just behind the first tier of players here, and both will likely face different pressures as they move to the NBA and out of their respective systems and roles.

              Terrell Stoglin, Austin Rivers, and Tony Wroten all rank in the bottom-five here, and turned the ball over more frequently than they tallied an assist. Some of that has to do with what their coaches needed from them on the offensive end, though each player could have done a better job using the threat of their scoring ability to set the table for others.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yGwO4mBV
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 8th, with 1.73. AR 22ND, with 0.9. DW 5th, with 1.92.

              Pure Point Rating

              Accounting for pace, and the fact that turnovers are statistically a bigger negative than assists are a positive, John Hollinger's pure point rating builds on the A/TO ratio that many of us use to gauge the efficiency of points guards.

              Somewhat similar to the A/T ratio table, this chart drops down many of the less prolific assist men who were playing mostly of the ball, including Marcus Denmon and Doron Lamb. It gives Marshall and Machado even more separation from the pack, but keeps Dion Waiters significantly ahead of the likes of Austin Rivers and Tony Wroten once again. Sloukas again ranks impressively here.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yGxjrr8H
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 7th, with 0.95. AR 20th, with -2.85. DW 5th, with 1.43.

              Rebounds Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

              Rebounding is an important aspect of the game, and while some guards are seldom asked to head down into the paint and make their presence felt in traffic, some players, like Rajon Rondo and Russell Westbrook for example, have the length, athleticism, toughness, and timing to make an impact in the possession battle on the glass. With that said, it's important to recognize that some of this stat is systematic.

              While there are no Julyan Stones or Iman Shumperts in this group, Tony Wroten, Damian Lillard, and Marcus Denmon all stand out among their peers. Wroten had an especially impressive impact on the offensive glass, pulling down 2.8 rebounds per-40 minutes pace adjusted, more than twice as many as the second ranked rebounder. Both Lillard and Denmon show a nose for the ball on the defensive end, while Scott Machado and Tomas Satoransky rebound at the same rate despite having completely different physical profiles.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yGyv6d9C
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 2nd, with 5.7. AR 10th, with 3.9. DW 12th, with 3.8.

              Steals Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

              A point guard's ability to apply ball pressure and get in the passing lanes often helps his team quicken the pace of the game without forcing the issue. Though there's a million ways to create a turnover, this stat paints a broad picture of what a prospect brings to the table both physically in terms of quickness and length and mentally in terms of intensity and anticipation.

              Andrew Albicy's ability to pressure the ball full court is one of the most significant things to like about him. He seemed to create as least one easy layup for himself every game by picking the opposing point guard's pocket in the back court and winning the race to the rim. His size may make it more difficult for him to replicate that success against NBA level competition, but his motor leaves room for optimism. Dion Waiters was a menace at the top of the Orange zone, and it will be interesting to see how his turnover rate is impacted playing man-to-man in the NBA.

              Tony Wroten, Dee Bost, and Kostas Sloukas round out the top-5. Wroten's length and Sloukas's size are both significant factors in their defensive productivity.

              Among the least prolific ball-thieves in this group are Doron Lamb, Marquis Teague, and Austin Rivers. Lamb ranks particularly low here, and his lack of great speed and quickness limit his impact in the passing lanes. Teague and Rivers both seem to have the athleticism to rank higher here, but considering the system Rivers played in and the shot blockers playing behind Teague, it isn't surprising to see both of them fairly low.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yH0NiJZB
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 9th, with 1.7. AR 20th, with 1.1. DW 2nd with 3.

              Blocks Per-40 Pace Adjusted

              This is yet another stat that can provide some insight into the physical traits that these shooting guards use defensively.

              Dion Waiters, Tony Wroten, and Marquis Teague are the class of this group as shot blockers, though none of them were particularly prolific in that aspect of the game. Austin Rivers is probably the most surprising player to block essentially no shots this season given his length and quickness, but the disparity between the top and bottom of this list simply isn't very large.

              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yH1sj02m
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 7th, with 0.2. AR 23rd(last) didn't record one block the entire year. DW 1st, with 0.5.

              Player Efficiency Rating

              Another one of John Hollinger's gems, PER is a total measure of what a player does on the floor based on more than a dozen weighted calculations. It isn't wise to compare players across different leagues, though, since an average score of 15 (the median) in the NBA would be a totally different figure in another league, with its own averages. The NCAA is especially tricky considering the varying levels of competition we find in the different conferences.

              Damian Lillard sits well ahead of the next tier of players in PER, some of which has to do with his level of competition. His mark bests Kyrie Irving's from last season, and is just short of those of Stephen Curry from his days at Davidson. As a point of reference, it is also only marginally ahead of those of Lester Hudson from his days at Tennessee-Martin. Lillard's billing as a small school superstar puts him in an awkward territory, as we've seen players from similar backgrounds succeed and fail over the last decade. In many ways, it will be Lillard's qualitative evaluation that will mean to the most to where he fits in the NBA, not his lofty statistics.

              Dion Waiters, Marcus Denmon, and Terrell Stoglin were all tremendously valuable to their respective teams, as were J'Covan Brown and Tu Holloway, who sit just outside of the top-5.

              Marquis Teague and Austin Rivers sit just below Kendall Marshall in the bottom-five of the group.


              From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yH3X9pOr
              http://www.draftexpress.com
              DL 1st, with 33.8. AR 19th, 16.8. DW 2nd, with 26.1.
              @Chr1st1anL

              Comment


              • I was originally down on Lillard, but if he's there at 8, Colangelo's gotta look hard at this kid. He did an amazing job at the combine, he's a smart kid and I think he's got a chance to be a pretty special player. I think it's between Lillard, Waiters and Rivers (in that order).

                Comment


                • Barnes is apparently bailing on his scheduled workout with the Kings this Friday. Does this mean the Cavs or another top 4 team gave a promise?
                  http://twitter.com/m_shantz

                  Comment


                  • Shantz wrote: View Post
                    Barnes is apparently bailing on his scheduled workout with the Kings this Friday. Does this mean the Cavs or another top 4 team gave a promise?
                    Or it could be his way (or his agent's way) of sending a message that he does not want to play in Sacramento. Honestly, I can't blame him - which 100% flies in the face of anything I've ever felt about a player lucky enough to be drafted in to the NBA. Unfortunately, dealing with the selfishness of Cousins, the lack of player development seen in a guy like Evans, a team that is no farther out of the lottery today than they were 5 years ago, a franchise that is most likely relocating in a year, and an uncertain financial well-being of the owners, Sacramento does not offer a lot to entice a mature prospect like Barnes.


                    I just hope he is not drafted at 7 by Golden State. If he is I will be violently ill.

                    Comment


                    • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                      Or it could be his way (or his agent's way) of sending a message that he does not want to play in Sacramento. Honestly, I can't blame him - which 100% flies in the face of anything I've ever felt about a player lucky enough to be drafted in to the NBA. Unfortunately, dealing with the selfishness of Cousins, the lack of player development seen in a guy like Evans, a team that is no farther out of the lottery today than they were 5 years ago, a franchise that is most likely relocating in a year, and an uncertain financial well-being of the owners, Sacramento does not offer a lot to entice a mature prospect like Barnes.


                      I just hope he is not drafted at 7 by Golden State. If he is I will be violently ill.
                      I 100% agree. I would really like the Raps to move up to grab Barnes. I'm not thrilled by the prospects we have a eight. I wonder what the price tag would be?

                      Comment


                      • Shantz wrote: View Post
                        Barnes is apparently bailing on his scheduled workout with the Kings this Friday. Does this mean the Cavs or another top 4 team gave a promise?
                        Interesting. That would mean one of either T-Rob, Beal or MKG has dropped out of the top 4. I wonder whom and more importantly I wonder how far that player might drop? Unfortunately Golden State will pick up any player we might want.

                        Comment


                        • Would you want to be on the kings?
                          @sweatpantsjer

                          Comment


                          • Shantz wrote: View Post
                            Barnes is apparently bailing on his scheduled workout with the Kings this Friday. Does this mean the Cavs or another top 4 team gave a promise?
                            Interesting. That would mean one of either T-Rob, Beal or MKG has dropped out of the top 4. I wonder whom and more importantly I wonder how far that player might drop? Unfortunately Golden State will pick up any player we might want.

                            Comment


                            • ceez wrote: View Post
                              Would you want to be on the kings?
                              Not really but I would not want to pass up the coin I could make going fifth as opposed to sixth or beyond. My hunch is that someone made him a promise.

                              Comment


                              • The Kings do have a lot of talent in their roster. They need a coach more than anything. If they somehow get it together, Kings will be dangerous.

                                I think MKG will fall out of the top 4 after it's all set and done.
                                “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

                                -- Charles Barkley

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