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BC has 2 years - what would you do if you were him?

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  • #16
    Tim W. wrote: View Post
    Agreed. And it's pretty short-sighted, in my opinion. It creates a problem down the road, and seems like hedging your bet. Also, why would any of those centers want to sign when they know that Valanciunas is going to be coming and possibly replacing them?
    damn straight it is... I'm missing how thats a bad thing? The reason the Raps are where they are (and alot of other teams for that matter) is because they didn't hedge their bets.

    Most of the championship/contending teams are where they are because they went after "sure things" (so to speak as nothing is a sure thing in sports)... rather than taking big risks.

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    • #17
      GarbageTime wrote: View Post
      Its all relative to how much, how long, and who's still here (ie. barg's contract). Gasol no doubt would be alot but if its a 3-4 year deal, his would be ending (roughly) just as JV's next contract would be coming up. (assuming Barg's is off the books I'd have little problems with it) Jordan I'm not sure will go for that much (if he's more than Amir... I'd be amazed and say that the owners haven't learned their lesson) but then again I didn't think Gilbert Arenas was worth a max deal when he was younger and uninjured so what do I know.

      They were really more examples than anything though.
      Fair enough. Personally I'd rather overpay a one year deal (team option for a second) to a guy like Kwame Brown or Chuck Hayes and have Alabi play as back up at C than sign a guy who could take away from the potential development of Alabi or JV the following season.

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      • #18
        GarbageTime wrote: View Post
        damn straight it is... I'm missing how thats a bad thing? The reason the Raps are where they are (and alot of other teams for that matter) is because they didn't hedge their bets.

        Most of the championship/contending teams are where they are because they went after "sure things" (so to speak as nothing is a sure thing in sports)... rather than taking big risks.
        I think Jordan will fetch more than Amir.

        However, now you have me thinking a little bit more. If Jordan could be had for around $8M per season, I would seriously consider it. The reason why is then the Raptors would have 3 legit C's and Jordan is already capable of starting and just turned 23. He has also been playing behind Kaman (when he has been healthy albeit which has not been very often the last 2 of 3 of seasons).

        Of the three in a couple of seasons, the best will be your starter and the second best your back up. If two or three are capable starters and/or one back-ups, then you have a GM's dream of too many C's on one team in a league lacking quality C's.

        As an aside, a real reason for concern with Jordan is his FT% - yikes.

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        • #19
          BC's primary goal is to continue to acquire core pieces for the future and to try to get at least one all-star/franchise type player who can be the face of the franchise. I would not be going after any significant free agents until those pieces are in place. To acquire these pieces, he's going to have to go through the trade route and draft route. The 2012 draft is very deep. If the season is lost due to the lockout, they should get a top 5 pick via their 22 win season last year. So, the next step would be to shed players with value to get further young players or draft picks. At the top of the list should be Bargnani. Not sure what his value would be thought.

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          • #20
            Matt52 wrote: View Post
            I'm not trying to be a d*ck but he also brought Bosh over one year as well.
            I meant to type Bosh, but for some reason it ended up as Both.

            I don't know if he's a leader, per say, but he's a good guy to have on the team. His contract is done is a couple of years anyway. About the time when the Raptors will be ready to spend some money.
            Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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            • #21
              GarbageTime wrote: View Post
              damn straight it is... I'm missing how thats a bad thing? The reason the Raps are where they are (and alot of other teams for that matter) is because they didn't hedge their bets.

              Most of the championship/contending teams are where they are because they went after "sure things" (so to speak as nothing is a sure thing in sports)... rather than taking big risks.
              The danger is putting the team on the mediocrity treadmill. You want to try and win now AND later. The problem is that the number one thing the Raptors need more than anything is a franchise player. They're not going to sign one, and they most likely won't be able to trade for one. The most realistic way is to try and draft one, which means a high draft pick next year, when there will be a strong draft.

              And the reason the Raptors and other teams are where they are is not because they didn't hedge their bets. It's because of lack of good management and/or luck. The best teams are where they are in large part to the fact that they have a top ten player on their team.
              Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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              • #22
                Matt52 wrote: View Post
                I think Jordan will fetch more than Amir.

                However, now you have me thinking a little bit more. If Jordan could be had for around $8M per season, I would seriously consider it. The reason why is then the Raptors would have 3 legit C's and Jordan is already capable of starting and just turned 23. He has also been playing behind Kaman (when he has been healthy albeit which has not been very often the last 2 of 3 of seasons).

                Of the three in a couple of seasons, the best will be your starter and the second best your back up. If two or three are capable starters and/or one back-ups, then you have a GM's dream of too many C's on one team in a league lacking quality C's.

                As an aside, a real reason for concern with Jordan is his FT% - yikes.
                You don't want two centers who need to play 30+ mpg. Neither is going to end up being happy. And you don't want Valanciunas wondering why he's going to come over when he might not even be the long term starting center.

                Having too much talent SEEMS like a nice problem, but unless you deal with it quickly, it can often lead to problems. Players become disgruntled, teams lowball you, chemistry issues grow. I'd rather wait on Valanciunas and see how he develops. If they want to bring in a veteran center who can play 10-15 mpg and tutor him, then I'm all for that. But not someone who is going to expect to continue to play 30+ mpg for as long as their with the team.
                Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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                • #23
                  Tim W. wrote: View Post
                  The danger is putting the team on the mediocrity treadmill. You want to try and win now AND later. The problem is that the number one thing the Raptors need more than anything is a franchise player. They're not going to sign one, and they most likely won't be able to trade for one. The most realistic way is to try and draft one, which means a high draft pick next year, when there will be a strong draft.

                  And the reason the Raptors and other teams are where they are is not because they didn't hedge their bets. It's because of lack of good management and/or luck. The best teams are where they are in large part to the fact that they have a top ten player on their team.
                  I don't think signing a young C automatically puts you on a mediocrity treadmill. I'd also mention a team is in danger of doing that at any point in time, the important thing is getting out of it if you do.
                  Last edited by GarbageTime; Mon Sep 19, 2011, 07:25 AM.

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                  • #24
                    Tim W. wrote: View Post
                    You don't want two centers who need to play 30+ mpg. Neither is going to end up being happy. And you don't want Valanciunas wondering why he's going to come over when he might not even be the long term starting center.

                    Having too much talent SEEMS like a nice problem, but unless you deal with it quickly, it can often lead to problems. Players become disgruntled, teams lowball you, chemistry issues grow. I'd rather wait on Valanciunas and see how he develops. If they want to bring in a veteran center who can play 10-15 mpg and tutor him, then I'm all for that. But not someone who is going to expect to continue to play 30+ mpg for as long as their with the team.
                    JV already needs to play 30 min a game and is already pegged as the long term starting C? Don't get me wrong when he's here I think giving him time... alot of it if he can handle it... is not a bad thing. But you are already making a lot of assumptions about him.

                    But in sticking with those assumptions, lets assume he becomes, at the very least, a 'legit' starting C... I'd also assume this season means nothing (he won't be here), and his rookie year and then his 2nd year are a matter of growth. Really you are looking at 3 years anyways before he's in a situation where he would "need" 30 minutes a game or that we'd know for sure he's the long term starting C.

                    I'd also mention having not enough talent can lead to just as many (although maybe different) problems as too much. What becomes important there then is the organization and the coach, and how they deal with it. If worst comes to worst, some of that 'too much' talent will have to be moved (easier said then done ofcourse). But I'd much rather have a problem of too many good players than too many bad players.
                    Last edited by GarbageTime; Mon Sep 19, 2011, 07:43 AM.

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                    • #25
                      Tim W. wrote: View Post
                      You don't want two centers who need to play 30+ mpg. Neither is going to end up being happy. And you don't want Valanciunas wondering why he's going to come over when he might not even be the long term starting center.

                      Having too much talent SEEMS like a nice problem, but unless you deal with it quickly, it can often lead to problems. Players become disgruntled, teams lowball you, chemistry issues grow. I'd rather wait on Valanciunas and see how he develops. If they want to bring in a veteran center who can play 10-15 mpg and tutor him, then I'm all for that. But not someone who is going to expect to continue to play 30+ mpg for as long as their with the team.
                      The delay in JV coming for a year might offer a different perspective.

                      With Jordan coming in, he could be your starter and Alabi as the back up. If Alabi is able to show he is a good back up and possibly capable of starting, then you make your decision after the season regarding Alabi/Jordan's future with the Raps. Alabi would be a good trade chip as he has a minimum contract team option for 2012-2013. IF Alabi is not a good back up, then you don't pick up his option. JV starts off as Jordan's backup. Then JV and Jordan battle it out for starting position.

                      Keep in mind I would not recommend this for Gasol, Chandler, or Nene. Jordan is the free agent C I would target given his age.

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                      • #26
                        ***Don't trade Bargnani ... give it a rest. He is 25 ... a 20 point scorer who can put the ball in the net in almost every way imaginable - including ways most 7 footers can't ... If playing beside another 'balanced' (rebounding, shot blocking) big, he is a large piece on a winning Raptors club. 6 rebounds a game for a PF who is also your leading scorer won't seem so horrific.***

                        My plan
                        Year 1 - no wholesale changes:
                        1. Sign a strong rotation SF (Maybe a starter, maybe not ... JJ is fine with me)
                        2. Sign a veteran centre to start - and play limited minutes (with Ed and Amir playing heavy bench minutes)

                        Year 2 - decision time
                        1. Draft either a PG (to be Jose's heir apparent) or SF to challenge JJ for the SF job
                        2. Deal one of ED or Amir for a veteran scoring guard to replace Leandro if he walks ... if he comes back, stay the course

                        IF 2011-12 shows no signs of progress, then a deal for Bargnani will be targeted to being in talent at the PG or SF position.

                        No falling deeper into a rebuild - Jonas will be integrated with current young talent, and only play minutes he earns.
                        The only way to bag a classy lady is to give her two tickets to the gun show... and see if she likes the goods.

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                        • #27
                          GarbageTime wrote: View Post
                          JV already needs to play 30 min a game and is already pegged as the long term starting C? Don't get me wrong when he's here I think giving him time... alot of it if he can handle it... is not a bad thing. But you are already making a lot of assumptions about him.

                          But in sticking with those assumptions, lets assume he becomes, at the very least, a 'legit' starting C... I'd also assume this season means nothing (he won't be here), and his rookie year and then his 2nd year are a matter of growth. Really you are looking at 3 years anyways before he's in a situation where he would "need" 30 minutes a game or that we'd know for sure he's the long term starting C.

                          I'd also mention having not enough talent can lead to just as many (although maybe different) problems as too much. What becomes important there then is the organization and the coach, and how they deal with it. If worst comes to worst, some of that 'too much' talent will have to be moved (easier said then done ofcourse). But I'd much rather have a problem of too many good players than too many bad players.
                          If Valanciunas needs to play 30 mpg, where exactly are those minutes going to come from if someone like Jordan or Gasol also play the PF position? If you play them together, that causes a logjam at the PF position, where, even if you trade Bargnani, both Davis and Amir should be playing at least 25 mpg. There are simply not enough minutes to go around.

                          And I really don't understand what the point of spending all that money on a position the Raptors already seem pretty set for the future. The SF position is HORRIBLE for the Raptors. I think James Johnson certainly has some potential, but he might very well have been the worst starting SF in the league last year. And while I like Calderon, and think Bayless has some promise, I don't know if I see either one of them being a starter on a contender 5 years from now.

                          I have absolutely no problem with spending money on free agents, but I think doing it now is a bad idea. First of all you're throwing money at a bad team, which almost never works. I'd rather wait for a year or two when we have a better idea of the real needs of the team.

                          And by signing a guy like Jordan or Gasol, you're probably going to help the team win 5 more games. Great. 5 more games doesn't sound like a lot, but this past year it was the difference between Minnesota and Toronto. And Minnesota got 100 more balls in the draft lottery than Toronto. A lower draft pick means you'll probably miss out on the chance to draft a franchise player. Then you might have a bunch of pretty good players, but without a franchise player, you're never going to be a real contender. That's the danger I'm talking about. How are you going to prevent your team from becoming mediocre without a franchise player?

                          And that's not even taking into consideration the financial implications of capping out a lottery team that still has a lot of rookies you'll have to pay soon.

                          That's why I'm FAR more comfortable with a Oklahoma City type approach. Patient and more financially responsible. Especially in what will probably be a very different landscape after the new CBA.
                          Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
                          Follow me on Twitter.

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                          • #28
                            Papa Burgundy wrote: View Post
                            ***Don't trade Bargnani ... give it a rest. He is 25 ... a 20 point scorer who can put the ball in the net in almost every way imaginable - including ways most 7 footers can't ... If playing beside another 'balanced' (rebounding, shot blocking) big, he is a large piece on a winning Raptors club. 6 rebounds a game for a PF who is also your leading scorer won't seem so horrific.***

                            My plan
                            Year 1 - no wholesale changes:
                            1. Sign a strong rotation SF (Maybe a starter, maybe not ... JJ is fine with me)
                            2. Sign a veteran centre to start - and play limited minutes (with Ed and Amir playing heavy bench minutes)

                            Year 2 - decision time
                            1. Draft either a PG (to be Jose's heir apparent) or SF to challenge JJ for the SF job
                            2. Deal one of ED or Amir for a veteran scoring guard to replace Leandro if he walks ... if he comes back, stay the course

                            IF 2011-12 shows no signs of progress, then a deal for Bargnani will be targeted to being in talent at the PG or SF position.

                            No falling deeper into a rebuild - Jonas will be integrated with current young talent, and only play minutes he earns.
                            So what you're saying is Bargnani will be fine next to a rebounding, shotblocking big man. Someone like, say, Amir Johnson or Ed Davis. Mmm.

                            And you want to WAIT until Bargnani's trade value declines even further to trade him. Mmmm.
                            Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
                            Follow me on Twitter.

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                            • #29
                              2 Years and Counting

                              .
                              • Stay the course
                                .
                              • Let the Big situation resolve itself. Andrea may be traded, but I doubt it. One of Amir or Davis will be gone - IMO - as I stick to the redundancy view that having JV, Amir & Ed on the same team are too similar (and too much of a luxury for a non-Contender). Davis seems the most likely, as his trade value (especially with a rookie salary), makes BC's probable options more palatable.
                                .
                              • Draft 2012 - SF and/or PG focus. If they get their hands on a PG with potential, I say move Bayless. Jose may be old for some fans, but winners don't feature all youth.
                                .
                              • Year 2 - Should the NBA miss most or all of the upcoming season, it's doubtful that MLSE would jettison BC. They need to lock in his 3rd year, so as to keep the rebuild on a true "flight plan".

                              .
                              Last edited by RapthoseLeafs; Mon Sep 19, 2011, 03:54 PM.

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                              • #30
                                Tim W. wrote: View Post
                                If Valanciunas needs to play 30 mpg, where exactly are those minutes going to come from if someone like Jordan or Gasol also play the PF position? If you play them together, that causes a logjam at the PF position, where, even if you trade Bargnani, both Davis and Amir should be playing at least 25 mpg. There are simply not enough minutes to go around.

                                And I really don't understand what the point of spending all that money on a position the Raptors already seem pretty set for the future. The SF position is HORRIBLE for the Raptors. I think James Johnson certainly has some potential, but he might very well have been the worst starting SF in the league last year. And while I like Calderon, and think Bayless has some promise, I don't know if I see either one of them being a starter on a contender 5 years from now.

                                I have absolutely no problem with spending money on free agents, but I think doing it now is a bad idea. First of all you're throwing money at a bad team, which almost never works. I'd rather wait for a year or two when we have a better idea of the real needs of the team.

                                And by signing a guy like Jordan or Gasol, you're probably going to help the team win 5 more games. Great. 5 more games doesn't sound like a lot, but this past year it was the difference between Minnesota and Toronto. And Minnesota got 100 more balls in the draft lottery than Toronto. A lower draft pick means you'll probably miss out on the chance to draft a franchise player. Then you might have a bunch of pretty good players, but without a franchise player, you're never going to be a real contender. That's the danger I'm talking about. How are you going to prevent your team from becoming mediocre without a franchise player?

                                And that's not even taking into consideration the financial implications of capping out a lottery team that still has a lot of rookies you'll have to pay soon.

                                That's why I'm FAR more comfortable with a Oklahoma City type approach. Patient and more financially responsible. Especially in what will probably be a very different landscape after the new CBA.
                                no matter how bad one wants or expects a team to be, they will always be competing with someone else. Then there is the luck of the lottery. Then there is the draft pick(s) becoming what you want... let alone one of them being a franchise player.

                                Even if the Raps do nothing this offseason they aren't ending up the worst team in the league. Charlotte, Detroit, Minn, Sac, Cleveland, Washington, Toronto (and who knows who else will peak their head in there) are all competing for that honour.

                                So lets just say the Raps do that (lose to get a top pick until they get that 'franchise guy'), JV becomes a top notch C but nothing else turns out... so now JV says, these guys don't have their act together I'm out of town... what then? Start over? Was it worth it?

                                Or what if JV doesn't turn out near what was expected?

                                Or what if the Raps are real bad but still pick 9th?

                                Or what if the Raps get the first pick and he gets 'Odened'?

                                Or what if they get the consensus #1 pick and he's Kwame Brown?

                                Or what if JV gets seriously injured?

                                Just keep losing until you win? Is that really always going to be the answer? At what cost... when is too much losing too much?

                                If you played a game of pick up basketball where the loser picked the first player for the next pick up game, would you lose that game so you could pick first? And the game after that... and the game after that? I mean its giving you a better opportunity to win the next game right?

                                Don't get me wrong, I think this team needs a franchise player and it doesn't appear that player is here yet. I expect this team to be bad next year (and few years) regardless. At the same time the team shouldn't plan for potentially infinite losing. Going 'all in' tank style does not guarantee anything... the team could become Oklahoma or it could be the Clippers. I'm not saying look to win a few games now. I'm not saying make the playoffs this season. And its not like I'm recommending a 17 mil dollar 7 year deal here.

                                But even if the Raps get a Franchise player next year there are no guarantees any of the guys this team have right now will 1) turn out to be where we would want them 2) stay healthy 3) want to stay here

                                If this team can maintain quality value players who can and will compete, the team will be highly competitive itself.
                                Last edited by GarbageTime; Mon Sep 19, 2011, 04:58 PM.

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