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  • Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I don't mean to keep repeating myself - maybe this is the last time I'll offer my two cents - but it is so much more than numbers. If it was just numbers, a guy like Al Jefferson would be a perennial all-star.

    Personally, I would like my point guard to make others around him. I don't see that in Bayless' game at this time. It might be something he can develop but I am not confident. I would really like to be wrong though. If the future PG is right here, why keep looking?
    We know what your personal opinion is on the matter, Matt. Haha
    You made it very clear with that Article you wrote.

    And I understand it is more than just numbers. I've never once made it about just his numbers.
    But to completely ignore his stats is a little bit much as well, I would say.

    My last comment on the matter:
    He has played well as a Starter. Not sure there is any denying that.
    Thus, that makes him capable of playing as a Starter.
    If he slips up and starts playing like Crap, then fine.
    But until he does, I see no reason to shit all over one of our young players trying to help us Win.

    Comment


    • Hugmenot wrote: View Post
      All joking aside, why the hell should I bother discussing a topic with someone who is not astute or interested enough to notice there are already two active threads discussing the same basic topic on the first page?
      I don't disagree.
      A Tidy RR Forum is a Happy RR Forum.

      Comment


      • joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
        He's shown to be an effective starter, according to his play, last year and this year.
        So how can you now come out and make a statement like this.
        What makes basketball statistics interesting from my perspective is the relative weights to give to offensive-vs-defensive stats, players-vs-floor-unit stats, and so on. Not even to speak of the *not publicly available* stats which can be measured by telemetry.

        You seem to put a heavier emphasis on a player's individual stats than most posters here and that may explain why your conclusion is different.

        I think you would have more success pointing out the specific things Bayless does well to show his value, or at least, to generate a conversation about the relative importance of these things.

        Comment


        • Matt52 wrote: View Post
          Chauncey Billups is not a true PG?
          He has all the qualities of a good PG: leadership, defense, etc.

          However, he is not a true PG because of what he does on the offensive end.

          Comment


          • One specific (and basic) example, based upon http://www.82games.com/1112/11TOR3.HTM.

            If you look at Bayless production per position, you can see Bayless posts a 14.2 PER as a PG and 11.4 as a SG. Furthermore, his oppoent counterpart posts a 10.5 PER when he is playing PG and 22.8 when he is playing SG.

            Now I have some issues with the time distribution as I think the algorithm the site uses to determine who plays what position is far from perfect (Bargnani is still primarily a center according to this site). I also have issues that they do not measure the level of opposition but that is to be expected.

            Nevertheless, the data suggests Bayless is a strong individual defender when defending PG but a weak individual defender when defending SG. I think most posters here would agree the data supports what we already knew and only the extend big deviation from the norm may be somewhat of a surprise. If I was a GM and believed Bayless is primarily a combo guard, I would try to identify the profile of the shooting guards Bayless can defend well to better assess his value.

            I believe this is a nontrivial effort to measure but that many teams would make better personnel decisions if they were looking beyond basic stats.

            Or maybe I am just trying to create jobs I can apply to when I retire.

            Comment


            • joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
              We know what your personal opinion is on the matter, Matt. Haha
              You made it very clear with that Article you wrote.

              And I understand it is more than just numbers. I've never once made it about just his numbers.
              But to completely ignore his stats is a little bit much as well, I would say.

              My last comment on the matter:
              He has played well as a Starter. Not sure there is any denying that.
              Thus, that makes him capable of playing as a Starter.
              If he slips up and starts playing like Crap, then fine.
              But until he does, I see no reason to shit all over one of our young players trying to help us Win.

              And Joey your opinion is well known as well.


              I don't think I've made my opinion clear based on the reply.

              I have not and do not ignore the statistics. He has put up great stats. Unfortunately, basketball is more than a game of numbers and one must look at the context in which the numbers are put up. His numbers alone definitely makes him a capable starter in fantasy basketball but his decision-making and ability to lead a team is still very much in doubt - at least for me.

              Instead of reposting my entire article, I'll just post the 2 questions I asked:

              1) do you think he is capable of continuing this shooting pace indefinitely because he now starts? (54.3%) No
              2) do you think you would feel the same about his prospects as the starting PG of the team had he shot his career and season average of 41% over the last 5 games? No


              I'm not shitting on him, that is just reality. His shooting percentage is nearly 15% above his career average in the last 5 games. His decision making on shot selection is very questionable. Once again, just because a shot is made it does not make it a good shot. Also, his ability to get the ball to teammates in places where they can be successful or at the very least comfortable is lacking as well. Yes, he has 7.6 assists per game over the last 5, but considering there are about 90 possessions per game that leaves a lot of opportunity for failed offensive sets. Again, something the box score and the stats won't tell but what one can easily pick up on throughout the game when watching.

              Comment


              • Matt52 wrote: View Post

                Also, his ability to get the ball to teammates in places where they can be successful or at the very least comfortable is lacking as well. Yes, he has 7.6 assists per game over the last 5, but considering there are about 90 possessions per game that leaves a lot of opportunity for failed offensive sets. Again, something the box score and the stats won't tell but what one can easily pick up on throughout the game when watching.

                This is something that I have been watching over the last four games, and I didn't want to say it because I felt people would just jump all over it. Go back on watch the games and see what baskets he is getting assists on. I have been watching the games and following the stats on NBA.com and the majority of assists he has been getting have been on difficult contested shots, or when a player receives the pass and has to create something out of it. Yes, Bayless has made some nice passes during his starts, but he hasn't been setting up his teammates when they are wide open. There have been plenty of opportunities as Matt has mentioned.

                Comment


                • Couple of things.....

                  I think if youre determining that Bayless CAN or CANNOT be the starting PG based on what currently going on with him and the team, then its all moot point. Its pointless to discuss. Why? Because one, the team is not playing for anything. Casey already said its audition time for both Bayless and Forbes. Two, no training camp and no practices. If youre new to a team, you cant avoid to be individualistic at time because you are not accustomed as to how your teammates play. If you think Calderon is a psychic because he sees teammates who are open or cutting, then youre mistaken. He anticipates. He knows when Amir gives him that pick that he's going to slide down, he knows when Demar curls, that he's going to cut to the basket. These things you learn from camp and practices and chemistry with teammates. Bayless doesnt know that, YET. To talk about his game right now and make it seem like thats going to be his game till he retires is i think is a bit unfair.

                  Ive seen him pass to the open man, ive seen him do the pick and roll, but yes, not as precise and often as Calderon. But we all have seen that he is capable of doing it.

                  Lastly, does his inadequacies outweigh what he can? I believe so. Like i said, you can tell him to slow down and pass, but you cant tell Calderon to take over the game in the dying seconds. And now, dont think of this as a knack to Calderon, what im saying here is some things are just fixable, and some are hard to teach.

                  Comment


                  • Calderon is a good shooter. He has taken a few "game on the line" shots this year. Some he has made, some he has not. He is a gifted shooter, and I would say if he took the 13 plus shots that Bayless takes, I think on average he would have similar to better results.

                    But this isn't a Calderon vs. Bayless thread

                    Comment


                    • The basic discussion has been is he the PG of the future, and should he be retained. Based on his career and talents as a PG, I should say let him walk. The last five games have been inspiring, if he can continue to show that he can improve his PG skills (passing, getting players involved, running the offence) then he definitely should be kept for the right price. He has to learn how to play like this off the bench though.

                      Comment


                      • saints91 wrote: View Post
                        Calderon is a good shooter. He has taken a few "game on the line" shots this year. Some he has made, some he has not. He is a gifted shooter, and I would say if he took the 13 plus shots that Bayless takes, I think on average he would have similar to better results.

                        But this isn't a Calderon vs. Bayless thread
                        Calderon is a good shooter. But by Bayless taking over the game in the dying seconds is taking people off the dribble either penetrating or taking that shot within 8-10 feet of the basket. I dont think you'll have much sucess if you iso Calderon.

                        Bayless needs to master the drive and kick.

                        I know. Its just that its a lot easier to point out Calderon in reference to Bayless since he is currently the antithesis of Bayless.

                        Comment


                        • saints91 wrote: View Post
                          The basic discussion has been is he the PG of the future, and should he be retained. Based on his career and talents as a PG, I should say let him walk. The last five games have been inspiring, if he can continue to show that he can improve his PG skills (passing, getting players involved, running the offence) then he definitely should be kept for the right price. He has to learn how to play like this off the bench though.
                          I think you're contradicting yourself a bit here. How can he prove himself this season if Calderon is already coming back? You want to see if he can continue with his good play, but youre letting him walk. And, you want to see him continue to hone his skills yet continue him to come off the bench. Im confused.

                          You cant show what youre fully capable of in 15-17 minutes of play. If Calderon didnt get injured, we wouldnt be having this discussion. Its because Bayless is now playing 35-40mins a game thats why were having this thread. We've seen what he can do, and i believe he can learn and do more, given the chance.

                          If the Raps are truly committed to Calderon and Bayless, let Bayless start till the end of the season and see what he can CONSISTENTLY do.

                          Comment


                          • You don't have to be a starter to be effective and to show you have skill. If you let the mental aspect of starting vs coming off the bench bother you, then there is a problem. In most cases Bayless won't be a starter in this league. If he can't do it off the bench then whats his worth?

                            I'm saying based on this career up to this point he has been nothing special. I wouldn't have resigned him. Based on the last 5 games he has gotten my attention, now I want to see if it's going to be consistent. He can show me he can lead the team with 18 minutes a game, and be consistent with his regular role.

                            Or better yet, play the better player. hint, hint I bet Claderon starts
                            Last edited by saints91; Mon Mar 19, 2012, 03:05 PM.

                            Comment


                            • saints91 wrote: View Post
                              You don't have to be a starter to be effective and to show you have skill. If you let the mental aspect of starting vs coming off the bench bother you, then there is a problem. In most cases Bayless won't be a starter in this league. If he can't do it off the bench then whats his worth?

                              I'm saying based on this career up to this point he has been nothing special. I wouldn't have resigned him. Based on the last 5 games he has gotten my attention, now I want to see if it's going to be consistent. He can show me he can lead the team with 18 minutes a game, and be consistent with his regular role.

                              Or better yet, play the better player. hint, hint I bet Claderon starts
                              BOLD - then why the heck are we discussing whether Bayless can be the future starting PG???? I think when we say starter, its equivalent to who gets more minutes. Isnt usually the case but pretty much the gyst. I dont think you can expect him to show what he's fully capable of in a bench role, let alone 15-17mins a game. You can see glimpses, but not the full picture. If Casey hasnt seen something with Bayless as a starting PG, then why is he playing more minutes than Forbes, as the starting PG while Calderon is out?

                              The Raptors did not re-sign him. He was traded for Jack. Bayless is still in his rookie contract. If you re-sign him cheap and ends up being a good PG, then youve struck gold. But thats a different discussion.

                              Of course Calderon will start. The Raps have already had their share of PG controversies in the past, and Casey already came out and said there will be no PG controversy on his watch. Now, come next season, if Bayless proves he can be a good PG, then thats a different story.

                              Comment


                              • tbihis wrote: View Post
                                BOLD - then why the heck are we discussing whether Bayless can be the future starting PG???? I think when we say starter, its equivalent to who gets more minutes. Isnt usually the case but pretty much the gyst. I dont think you can expect him to show what he's fully capable of in a bench role, let alone 15-17mins a game. You can see glimpses, but not the full picture. If Casey hasnt seen something with Bayless as a starting PG, then why is he playing more minutes than Forbes, as the starting PG while Calderon is out?

                                The Raptors did not re-sign him. He was traded for Jack. Bayless is still in his rookie contract. If you re-sign him cheap and ends up being a good PG, then youve struck gold. But thats a different discussion.

                                Of course Calderon will start. The Raps have already had their share of PG controversies in the past, and Casey already came out and said there will be no PG controversy on his watch. Now, come next season, if Bayless proves he can be a good PG, then thats a different story.

                                Yes I know he was traded for Jack. I meant based on his career I wouldn't have resigned him this summer.


                                Many of players have come off the bench during there rookie contracts to become starters later on in their careers. You earn your minutes. OBVIOUSLY he hasn't if he doesn't start when Calderon is healthy. He would be best to take advantage of the minutes he gets off the bench. If he is better than Calderon next year, if he makes the team, then he should start.

                                As for getting more minutes than Forbes... I feel bad for Forbes. He is finally getting minutes this season and he has to play out of position. The fact that he is doing well is amazing. If Bayless can't start over a SG/SF then he would've been cut long ago.

                                Comment

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