Since the rosters seem mostly settled, it's plausible (if maybe a little premature, still) to start forecasting how the east playoff race might look, and have an idea of where the Raptors are going to fit into it. Here's my take, with some comments:
1. Heat -- will be even better than last year. Runaway number 1. +8
2. Nets -- Have a pretty firm ceiling, but the team will have good synergy and has definitely the 2nd best set of starters in the east. +5
3. Celtics -- Lee and Terry will be an upgrade over Allen. They have huge downside if Garnett has knee troubles. +3.5
4. Pacers -- Could easily finish ahead of the Celtics, but I don't think they will catch the nets. Gap between them and the next bunch. +3.5
5. Magic -- This is assuming Howard plays for them, at his usual level. If they trade him in the summer, they go to mid-lottery probably, and whoever gets him (hopefully in the west) shoots way up.+2
6. Raptors -- This is assuming Lowry plays very very well, Valanciunas plays as an above-average centre, and that Bargnani continues to play at the level he did before his injuries last year. But it's also assuming DeRozan continues to not be very good. It has more downside than upside potential. +1.5
7. Bulls -- This is assuming Rose has basically no impact on the regular season. I wouldn't be very surprised if they finished better than the Raptors or Magic. +0.5
8. Knicks -- I wouldn't actually be very surprised if they're worse than this. This is assuming Carmelo and Stoudemire can play together at an above average level, which I actually doubt. +0
Lottery:
9. Hawks -- Losing Johnson for nothing will hurt a lot. -.5
10. Bucks -- Still very average. Will be better if Waiters is actually a stud in his first year, but I think he will shoot bad.-.5
11. Wizards -- This is assuming Wall continues to suck. If he starts to be good, they could make the playoffs. -1
12. 76ers -- Lost brand, have a terrible, terrible frontcourt. Upside is if Hawes plays like he did at the beginning of last season. -2
13. Pistons -- I don't like anybody on their team aside from Monroe. -4
14. Cavaliers -- At least they'll get another good draft pick. -6
15. Bobcats -- Their team is still unbelievably awful. -10
1. Heat -- will be even better than last year. Runaway number 1. +8
2. Nets -- Have a pretty firm ceiling, but the team will have good synergy and has definitely the 2nd best set of starters in the east. +5
3. Celtics -- Lee and Terry will be an upgrade over Allen. They have huge downside if Garnett has knee troubles. +3.5
4. Pacers -- Could easily finish ahead of the Celtics, but I don't think they will catch the nets. Gap between them and the next bunch. +3.5
5. Magic -- This is assuming Howard plays for them, at his usual level. If they trade him in the summer, they go to mid-lottery probably, and whoever gets him (hopefully in the west) shoots way up.+2
6. Raptors -- This is assuming Lowry plays very very well, Valanciunas plays as an above-average centre, and that Bargnani continues to play at the level he did before his injuries last year. But it's also assuming DeRozan continues to not be very good. It has more downside than upside potential. +1.5
7. Bulls -- This is assuming Rose has basically no impact on the regular season. I wouldn't be very surprised if they finished better than the Raptors or Magic. +0.5
8. Knicks -- I wouldn't actually be very surprised if they're worse than this. This is assuming Carmelo and Stoudemire can play together at an above average level, which I actually doubt. +0
Lottery:
9. Hawks -- Losing Johnson for nothing will hurt a lot. -.5
10. Bucks -- Still very average. Will be better if Waiters is actually a stud in his first year, but I think he will shoot bad.-.5
11. Wizards -- This is assuming Wall continues to suck. If he starts to be good, they could make the playoffs. -1
12. 76ers -- Lost brand, have a terrible, terrible frontcourt. Upside is if Hawes plays like he did at the beginning of last season. -2
13. Pistons -- I don't like anybody on their team aside from Monroe. -4
14. Cavaliers -- At least they'll get another good draft pick. -6
15. Bobcats -- Their team is still unbelievably awful. -10
Comment