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ESPN Hollinger's Prediction

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  • #31
    yeah, if we're going to give up the pick id rather do it this year in a bad draft class (most likely late lottery to boot) than later on.
    @sweatpantsjer

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    • #32
      alexaussie wrote: View Post
      Demar doesn't like the prediction apparently.


      I was watching the interview with coach Casey on Raptors TV yesterday when he was talking about Hollinger's report and didn't think much of his comments regarding being disrespected, at that time. However to know that DeMar got wind of it is awesome news, because it's sure to trickle down to the rest of the players now and it will serve as motivation to prove everyone wrong.

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      • #33
        Lark Benson wrote: View Post
        I read it, his reasoning is sound. Fans of a team tend to base their predictions on everything breaking right and the assumed internal development of players. Reality tends to be less cooperative.

        edit: To actually answer your question, the main argument he makes is that the Raps have talent, they simply need to let some of it develop and hope that BC overcomes the urge to package some of it for a player that helps more in the short-term than long-term. A lot of the players they'll be handing out big minutes to have big question marks: can Bargs, Ed Davis and DeRozan show growth, can Val and Ross contribute as rookies, what is Fields going to give you, etc etc. If everything breaks right they could sneak into th 8th seed, but everything rarely breaks right.
        very nice!

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        • #34
          Bouncepass wrote: View Post
          One positive thing about finishing 9th or 10th in the East is that it discharges the lottery draft pick owed to Houston in the Kyle Lowry trade quickly, without much of a cost. Of course, it would be better to be perpetually in the playoffs for the next 5-7 years. I'm not sure, but if the Raptors don't have a lottery pick for the next 5-7 years, does that mean that they have to give Houston a non-lottery pick at some point?
          If Toronto makes the playoffs for 5 straight years, then our 2018 1st round pick goes to Houston, regardless where it falls.

          2013: #4-14
          2014: #3-14
          2015: #3-14
          2016: #2-14
          2017: #2-14
          2018: unprotected #1-30

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          • #35
            CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
            If Toronto makes the playoffs for 5 straight years, then our 2018 1st round pick goes to Houston, regardless where it falls.

            2013: #4-14
            2014: #3-14
            2015: #3-14
            2016: #2-14
            2017: #2-14
            2018: unprotected #1-30
            Thank you for clearing up the details on the "don't pay a cent" Lowry deal.

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            • #36
              alexaussie wrote: View Post
              Demar doesn't like the prediction apparently.


              Haha did he just call him a clown? you tell em DeRo

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              • #37
                The only thing that troubles me is, "haven't we seen this before?". It now almost seems like an annual rite of passage. Toronto sports team is pegged to finish poorly by a big american media site. We are aghast. Don't they see all of the strengths we have? Then the season is played. And the prediction is often right. Is it that the prediction is made by somebody elsewhere without our optimistic blinders? Do we envision a season where everything goes right but then never does? Makes it hard to bet against this until we actually rise against it. The only solace I can take it that we have so many new parts, nobody can predict what will happen. Until April...

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                • #38
                  Jclaw wrote: View Post
                  The only thing that troubles me is, "haven't we seen this before?". It now almost seems like an annual rite of passage. Toronto sports team is pegged to finish poorly by a big american media site. We are aghast. Don't they see all of the strengths we have? Then the season is played. And the prediction is often right. Is it that the prediction is made by somebody elsewhere without our optimistic blinders? Do we envision a season where everything goes right but then never does? Makes it hard to bet against this until we actually rise against it. The only solace I can take it that we have so many new parts, nobody can predict what will happen. Until April...
                  You're wrong about this. Just take a look at last year's predictions on this site here. 48 out of 75 people thought we'd finish with less than 21 wins (with the most going for 15-18). Only 17 people thought we'd win at least 25 games. So much for those optimistic blinders being an annual thing.

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                  • #39
                    Re-visiting preseason predictions from Holly McKenzie at SportsNet.ca: (preseason is underlined as italics don't show in quote)

                    2. Andrea Bargnani was efficient offensively and competent defensively in last year’s first 13 games before getting injured. Was that a mirage?

                    MacKenzie: I don’t think it was a mirage. I think it was a version of Bargnani that was comfortable and motivated and the credit for that goes largely to Dwane Casey. Almost every coach says you’ll sit if you don’t play on the defensive end, but Casey has made it clear that his words are not just empty threats. As for his performance during this pre-season … well, it’s pre-season.

                    And this is where I felt like setting the internet on fire.

                    I suppose this is what you get for believing in a 13-game segment from a season ago instead of the six previous seasons, but count me in on the list of people who were all-in on Bargnani. Less than six months later, this statement makes me want to shake my head at myself.

                    It’s been a bad season in Toronto and, through injury/apathy, it has been the worst season for Bargnani. From fans booing to Italian interviews needing to be cleared up, there probably isn’t a Raptors player who is looking forward to the off-season more than Bargnani. The question now: Where will home be for Bargnani next season?
                    7. Will Dwane Casey turn the Raptors into a top-10 defensive team?

                    MacKenzie: If we look at the improvements that the team made last season, add Valanciunas, who is a presence inside, along with very capable defender Terrence Ross and another year for players to get familiar with the system and Casey’s expectations, and it’s a safe bet to assume they’ll continue to climb the defensive rankings.

                    This was the question I’d felt most confident about answering. Really missed the mark here, didn’t I? I think we all did. While Valanciunas struggled to pick up the defensive schemes and speed/size of the NBA game more than I expected, I also was overly confident in Ross’s ability to transition to the NBA from the jump. Both players needed the duration of the season to get adjusted and comfortable with their new surroundings. As for the rest of the team…yeah. Easily the biggest disappointment in a season filled with them.
                    9. What will the Raptors’ record be, and where will they finish in the Eastern Conference standings?

                    MacKenzie: I’m going to say the Raptors will finish eighth, at 37-45. Yes, this basically means the rest of the Eastern Conference will have to fall apart, but this is my fifth season in this city and I’ve yet to cover a playoff game. It’s time.
                    Fun fact: When the Milwaukee Bucks clinched a playoff spot on Saturday night. They had 37 wins. Beyond that magic number and the recognition that 37 wins could make the post-season cut in the Eastern Conference, I really regret being wrong on this one. Another year without the playoffs — I feel you, Raptors fans.
                    10. After this season, the Raptors have a team option to retain president and general manager Bryan Colangelo. Will he still be running the Raptors a year from now?

                    MacKenzie: Yes, I think he will be. Drafting Valanciunas, pulling off the trade to bring in Kyle Lowry (he’s making $6 million each of the next two seasons, making the failed Steve Nash pursuit look like a blessing) and, of course, the positive after-effects of his decision to hire Dwane Casey will ensure him more time in Toronto.

                    Ahh, the (multi)-million dollar question in Toronto right now. Well, things certainly look different than they did in November, don’t they? They also look remarkably different than they did after the 4-19 start or the midway break of the season or even the beginning of February, when the team reeled off wins in the immediate aftermath of the Gay trade.

                    While Colangelo’s decision to draft Valanciunas was absolutely the right one — and one that will pay off big time in the years to come — the other moves haven’t unfolded as planned.

                    Lowry has not fit in as expected; Casey’s defensive schemes seemed to elude the team a season after they had made serious strides on the defensive end of the floor and the team is missing the post-season for the fifth straight year. It isn’t that they are missing the post-season so much as it is the way they missed it. It’s been a season of disappointment after disappointment and regroup after regroup. When the pieces don’t fit and each one matters, eventually the blame has to fall upon the person responsible for putting them together.

                    It’s been a wild ride this season, hasn’t it?
                    I picked the four questions I found most interesting. The link is worth the click.

                    I remember thinking 38 or 39 wins.... booooo. The Bargnani bit nails it. Everything for me was on Bargnani not being the previous 6 season version. Very much wrong. And it is from that point forward where I want sweeping changes. Good bye BC - 7 years of failure with a doomed to fail Bargnani. Good bye DC - you were brought in to teach defense (fail) and get the most out of Dirk-Lite (minus 17 games, FAIL). Good bye AB - it is time for everyone to part ways.

                    There is a thread out there with the actual poll but for the life of me, I can't find it.

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                    • #40
                      everyone should start tweeting demar with a lil #clown

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                      • #41
                        ebrian wrote: View Post
                        33 wins is exactly what I predicted back in August.
                        You're gonna be bang on with this.

                        Well done.
                        Twitter - @thekid_it

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                        • #42
                          I picked the four questions I found most interesting. The link is worth the click.

                          I remember thinking 38 or 39 wins.... booooo. The Bargnani bit nails it. Everything for me was on Bargnani not being the previous 6 season version. Very much wrong. And it is from that point forward where I want sweeping changes. Good bye BC - 7 years of failure with a doomed to fail Bargnani. Good bye DC - you were brought in to teach defense (fail) and get the most out of Dirk-Lite (minus 17 games, FAIL). Good bye AB - it is time for everyone to part ways.

                          There is a thread out there with the actual poll but for the life of me, I can't find it.
                          Good for her for running something like this.

                          It still baffles me how many people (knowledgeable people, too) were fooled with the Bargnani stuff. The fact that so many people clung to that 13-game stretch after 6 years, particularly when he'd had stretches like that before and never sustained them.

                          I really hope people have learned their lesson on this stuff. We'll see with Derozan. 4 years in, still the same player. Will Raps fans keep believing he's just waiting to bust out? Or have we learned that players are what they are?

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                          • #43
                            ezz_bee wrote: View Post
                            I'm going with 36W-46L, we got better as a team but I'm not sure enough teams got worse for it to matter dramatically. Lowry will have to be in heavy all-star consideration for the raps to get a 7th seed or higher, I think we'll be in the 11-8 range, a lot of that depending on Magic and Bulls.
                            ezz_bee wrote: View Post
                            Just read the slam article and found a couple of things interesting...

                            1) If the guy who wrote the article was the GM of either the Bulls or Hornet's he'd be trying to get his hands on Calderon.

                            2) He thinks that New Orleans is going to have a +500 record. That seems like a stretch to me, I guess he's expecting Davis to have a huge impact, but doing a roster comparison I think that our team is definitely stronger, both in starting 5 and in players coming off the bench. That being said, I've never watched Davis play (am overseas so only read about this year's march madness).
                            It's definitely worth going back through that old thread to see what you, and others predicted.

                            The article that spawned it, on top of saying that NO would be a .500 team, (currently 27-51) also said that Sactown (currently 27-50) would improve by 17 wins... the bluff was called by more than just me. Just goes to show that writer's write for clicks, and that we've got enough varying opinions on this site that no matter what the topic is, somebody here got it right. If only we didn't have just as many or (or more) who got it wrong.

                            Although the raps won't get to 36 wins I feel pretty good about my prediction. I probably over valued JV contribution, I figured he'd be playing the way he is now, by December.

                            Also, I was off in thinking the bulls would drop to the bottom of the playoffs or possibly out altogether. Based on Boston's play minus Rondo and the spurs play minus their random revolving door of injuries, it seems like teams can sustain a high level of play without their best player for a significant stretch.

                            Anyway, i do think it's important to keep tabs on people's prediction, and pat them on the back or rub it in their faces when they are right or wrong, as it increases accountability.

                            For those who actually gave a prediction (so they should still be esteemed more than the gutless wonders who didn't make a prediction), there were two that tied for having a prediction that was least mirrored by the shared reality we witnessed (which isn't to say their aren't other universes where they made the most accurate predictions).

                            mcsemcp73 wrote: View Post
                            Raptors will go 44-38

                            Atlanta (rebuilding), Orlando( rebuilding with or without D, Boston ( to old even with Rondo), New York (Melo) and
                            Chicago (without DR need a bench)

                            1)Miami
                            2)New Jersey
                            3)Indiana
                            4)Philadelphia
                            5)Milwaukee
                            6)Toronto
                            7) Washington
                            8) Chicago (maybe)
                            FTR this guys posted as a "guest" (I didn't know that was possible...)

                            Mediumcore wrote: View Post
                            I'm optimistic about our chances this season (as I am at the start of every season). I think two things the Raptors have going for them are a deep bench with Calderon leading the way, and just as important D. Casey's consistent approach to playing defensive basketball. I really think when you can hang your hat on defense you'll always have a shot at winning games. Plus with really good rebounders at the PG and SF positions in Lowry and Fields the Raptors should be a pretty good rebounding team this year.

                            My prediction is between 44 to 48 wins this season.
                            It seems like Mediumcore's biggest mistake was probably the assumption that our defense would be even better than last year, instead of getting worse.


                            I also think it's worthwhile putting ebrian's full post up:

                            ebrian wrote: View Post
                            I say 33 wins, and that is about as happy-go-lucky-optimistic as I can possibly get.

                            That's the upper limit to what I could possibly predict here: a 40% win percentage with 2 new players in the starting lineup that are marginally better than their predecessors (until proven otherwise) and 2 rookies that will play significant minutes and undoubtedly hit rookie walls.
                            The scary thing is that he's the only guy who predicted 33 wins or less, I think LBF would have predicted about the same or lower, based on the tone of his responses, but failed to actually given a number. Everyone else, including me predicted the raps would get more wins than they actually did, which is pretty scary, since I (and most other's here) like to believe we are capable of objective analysis.

                            Anyway, with only four games remaining, all against playoff bound teams, 33 wins really does seem like the ceiling for this season, although, 30-32 wins seems more likely.

                            Pretty soon, we'll have to start a new prediction thread for next season. It'll be interesting to see if ebrian can duplicate his accuracy. If he does, I will be awarding the honorary nickname of ebrain!
                            Last edited by ezz_bee; Wed Apr 10, 2013, 08:24 AM.
                            "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

                            "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

                            "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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                            • #44
                              Talk about being overly optimistic. Leaves me scratching my head as to how it all went wrong?

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                              • #45
                                There was also a thread with a poll for predictions (I was too optimistic...); I looked for it last week, but I can't find it. Anyone know where that thread is?

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