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  • Matt52 wrote: View Post
    As for Gay, this is smart thinking. We don't want to be Boshed again. If he turns down the extension we know what has to be done.
    I just don't have any confidence in Colangelo's ability to learn from past mistakes....

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    • If they can negotiate a less-than-max extension, I'd consider it a reasonable move (think ~$13-15 M /year). Otherwise, why would they do so?

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      • KHD wrote: View Post
        If they can negotiate a less-than-max extension, I'd consider it a reasonable move (think ~$13-15 M /year). Otherwise, why would they do so?
        Thinking the same thing. Definitely not worth a max deal, but I have a feeling Colangelo will go the distance in order to keep him (see DeMar DeRozan)
        Twitter - @thekid_it

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        • isaacthompson wrote: View Post
          Thinking the same thing. Definitely not worth a max deal, but I have a feeling Colangelo will go the distance in order to keep him (see DeMar DeRozan)
          That is what pisses me off on DeRozan's extension. There was no way the Raps wouldn't keep him unless they didn't want to match an offer. The Raps held all leverage in keeping DD. In signing him they certainly gained good will but definitely lost flexibility on the trade front.... although it is kind of moot with the trade for Gay.

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          • ezz_bee wrote: View Post
            This is where we diverge in terms of thought. If Coangelo's logic is Rudy isn't a max player; but has the potential to be one, the I should offer him an extension NOW because if I wait another two years, there may be a bunch of other teams that want to offer him max as well, and he may turn down my offer and make slightly less elsewhere, but in a situation that he thinks is better.

            Then there's nothing wrong with that logic, and by all means offer him a contract. That said, doesn't his agent's logic follow like this; Rudy Gay isn't a max level player yet. Even though he got a max level contract before, people are currently saying he was overpaid. Therefore his stock is low right now, so it doesn't make sense unless they are willing to offer Rudy more than what I (his agent) think he will get in free agency. As his agent, I'm confident in his abilities, and MY abilities, so the only way I agree to an extension is if it is for max money.

            To me, and maybe I'm making an assumption that will turn out to be false, but I'm 80% certain that any extension Rudy signs will be for Max money, and I'm 99% sure that Rudy won't sign an extension for anything less.

            The only other reason I can see Coangelo offering the extension is if he's worried that Gay will be offended if doesn't, because other players (Nic Batum?) have had those issues.

            Again, this based on speculation (unnamed source) and I hope it turns out to be false, or that I'm wrong about Coangelo offering a max extension, and/or that Rudy would accept anything less.

            But to confirm, you DO believe that Coangelo will offer LESS than max money and that Rudy is open to signing an extension for less than max money?

            edit:
            another possible justification on Coangelo's part is that either
            1) Someone higher up in the ORG has a RAGING Gay erection, and inking an extension will insure/help insure his 3rd year option is picked up.

            2) By inking a deal with Gay, he feels confident that any new GM/President would have his or her hands tied by the roster, and therefore is confident that ownership won't see like it's worth bringing in somebody new, because they wouldn't be able to do anything anyway.

            Both are cynical outlooks and I'm not saying I think either of this justifications reflects reality, just that they are possible motivations.

            PREDICTION: Rudy Gay and the Raptors won't agree to an extension this off-season UNLESS it's for max money.
            Great post, great insights. I would only add one thing:

            Does Gay turn down 4 years and $50M plus guaranteed?

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            • Matt52 wrote: View Post
              Great post, great insights. I would only add one thing:

              Does Gay turn down 4 years and $50M plus guaranteed?
              I'd call that fair for both parties.
              Heir, Prince of Cambridge

              If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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              • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                Great post, great insights. I would only add one thing:

                Does Gay turn down 4 years and $50M plus guaranteed?
                Rudy still has his player option after next year so that should be considered. Given that, a 4 for 50 deal becomes, from Gay's perspective anyways, a 3 for 30 deal.

                If he thinks he can get more than that come 2015 offseason (or in an extension from the Raps in the 2014 season) then he turns it down. I expect he would.

                That said there is alot of value in guaranteed money, but I think Rudy is young enough that he won't be expecting a career ending injury or an injury that would kill a lucrative contract.

                At the very least Rudy's player option gives him plenty of reason to take a risk and wait to see if he can get a better deal.

                I do think thats alot closer to fair value for him as a player though.

                Comment


                • I could see Rudy take a less than max, guaranteed deal to help the clubs flexibility. He also simply doesnt put up max numbers.
                  The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

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                  • If I were him I wouldn't bother signing until I get a better idea for the direction of the team. Why tie himself up to a bad team that currently shows no plans for success when he's already got himself a max contract? He can afford to sign somewhere else for a bit less money if there is an opportunity to win.

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                    • I think it's hard to answer the question "Has Rudy Gay earned an extension" right now, since we have no idea what that extension will look like (all assuming the rumor is true to begin with).

                      Here are some of my thoughts...

                      - Rudy Gay is a great player, but not a max-player... I'd be happy with an extension averaging even as much as $15M per season (much more reasonable than his $17.9M next season and $19.3M the following season)

                      - If BC can lock him up long-term now, it would signal to current players (and potential free agents) that Toronto is capable of keeping talented players and that they choose to be in Toronto... if he can get Gay for better value than his current deal, even better (also would make the trade look that much better, since he's not just an overpaid 2.5 year rental)

                      - Ideally re-signing Gay would almost guarantee Lowry would re-sign, again being a solid sign for the franchise and making the Lowry trade look that much better (and that would be 2 starters signed for long-term; 3 if you include Valanciunas and 4 if BC has no plans to trade DeRozan)

                      - Clearing up the uncertainty around 2 key players (Gay & Lowry) makes it much easier for BC to figure out his plan and target players via trade/free agency, since he will have so many guys/positions locked-up

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                      • Craiger wrote: View Post
                        Rudy still has his player option after next year so that should be considered. Given that, a 4 for 50 deal becomes, from Gay's perspective anyways, a 3 for 30 deal.

                        If he thinks he can get more than that come 2015 offseason (or in an extension from the Raps in the 2014 season) then he turns it down. I expect he would.

                        That said there is alot of value in guaranteed money, but I think Rudy is young enough that he won't be expecting a career ending injury or an injury that would kill a lucrative contract.

                        At the very least Rudy's player option gives him plenty of reason to take a risk and wait to see if he can get a better deal.

                        I do think thats alot closer to fair value for him as a player though.
                        I don't think he turns down the option. In fact the Raptors can't sign him to an extension should he opt out of the player option to anything starting less than the option year:

                        Veteran extensions:

                        Extensions to contracts that are not rookie scale contracts (i.e., veteran extensions) may be signed up to June 30, the day before the player would have become a free agent.

                        A contract that contains an Early Termination Option (ETO) cannot be extended if the ETO is exercised (ending the contract early). A contract with an option can be extended if the player opts-in. A contract with an option can also be extended if the player opts-out, as long as the extension adds at least two new seasons onto the contract (excluding any new option year) and the salary in the first year of the extension is not less than the salary in the non-exercised option year. See question number 57 for more information on options and ETOs.

                        A veteran extension can contain an option (player or team), but cannot contain an ETO.

                        If the player agrees to waive a portion of his trade bonus in order to facilitate a trade (see question number 97), his contract may not be extended for six months following the trade.

                        Veteran extensions are limited to four seasons, including the seasons remaining on the current contract. Even if the extension is signed in late June, the current season counts as one full season toward the total. For example, a contract with two seasons remaining may be extended for up to two additional seasons. However, an extension signed in conjunction with an Extend-and-Trade transaction (see question number 92) is limited to three seasons, including the seasons remaining on the current contract.

                        The salary in the first year of a veteran extension may be any amount up to 107.5% of the player's previous salary4, but no more than the player's maximum salary in that season (i.e., the maximum salary the player can receive if he were to sign a new contract that year as a free agent -- see question numbers 16 and 17).

                        Since the maximum salaries for an upcoming season are not known at the time the extension is signed, it is possible that the extension will specify a salary that is greater than the maximum salary. If this happens, the salaries in the extension are amended downward once the maximum salaries are defined.

                        Raises in each year of a veteran extension are limited to 7.5% of the salary in the first year of the extension5. If the salary in the first year of the extension is amended downward, the salaries in all subsequent season are amended as well. If the contract being extended contained bonuses, then the extension must contain the same bonuses -- teams can increase or decrease the bonus amounts by up to 7.5%, but they can't leave them off.

                        http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q57
                        The most Gay could be extended this summer is 2 seasons. The $17 and $19M from current deal would be guaranteed. Would he take 2 years and $26M guaranteed? Would he he risk missing that money 2 years out with an injury? Would he want to wait until his current contract ends to get 4 years at 28 versus taking a 2 year extension this summer and looking for his likely final big money contract at 30?

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                        • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                          Great post, great insights. I would only add one thing:

                          Does Gay turn down 4 years and $50M plus guaranteed?
                          I was wrong here. See post 16.

                          Damn CBA.

                          Comment


                          • Gay made his presence felt as soon as we signed him and affirmed a positive outlook for next season has had a major influence on the core of talent that we already had.

                            Right now Id say ya I want him extended lock Gay up, finally end the hunt for filling the SF spot to limited success season after season. For the right price though.

                            Comment


                            • New Article from ESPN: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/90...et-prove-worth

                              Interesting perspective from Gay about his last 2 years in Memphis and his outlook for Toronto. It certainly feels like he's a guy who would accept the challenge to be the leader of a young team ready to rise from the lottery and start thinking playoffs seriously.
                              Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Thu Mar 7, 2013, 12:38 PM.

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                              • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                                I don't think he turns down the option. In fact the Raptors can't sign him to an extension should he opt out of the player option to anything starting less than the option year:



                                The most Gay could be extended this summer is 2 seasons. The $17 and $19M from current deal would be guaranteed. Would he take 2 years and $26M guaranteed? Would he he risk missing that money 2 years out with an injury? Would he want to wait until his current contract ends to get 4 years at 28 versus taking a 2 year extension this summer and looking for his likely final big money contract at 30?
                                Thats for an ETO though. Are the rules the same for a player option?

                                If for a second we assume they are, given the above, then the Raps can only be offering him, as you mention, a two year deal at just shy of max money.

                                Would he rather that? I'm not sure. But I imagine the risk vs reward definetely points towards signing the extension at that point. (alot more money early and still plenty of time left in his career to sign another long term deal).

                                But now we are talking about the Raptors that lose out unfortunately.

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