# Thread: How current winning percentage will affect the rest of the season and playoff chances

1. ## How current winning percentage will affect the rest of the season and playoff chances

I have read several threads and posts in this forum where people have tried to predict the season's W-L results for the Raptors and their chances of making the playoffs.

I believe that looking at the Raptor's upcoming schedule, although there are merits to this approach, and trying to determine what the win/loss total will be for the rest of the season is shortsighted. A playoff team should be able to win both at home (handily) and on the road regardless of opponents and schedule. I agree that sometimes the schedule will get the best of any NBA team. The Raptors were rolling and a two day break gave them time to reflect and feel good about themselves instead of having them feel desperate about their current situation. The result was to lose a winnable game(according to the level of opponent).

I think the right way to determine the number of Wins and Loses for this current Raptor's team is to look at the winning percentage since the Gay trade and use this percentage to determine how many games they will win out of the 25 remaining games.

Based on the winning percentage the Raptors have since the Gay trade (7 Wins-4 Loses = .636% Winning Percentage) the Raptors should* win a total of 16 games, finishing the season at 39 Wins and 43 Loses. Would this be enough to make it?

If we look at Philadelphia and Milwaukee they are posting .400% and .200% winning percentages respectively the past 10 games. Lets assume they continue to struggle and post .450% winning percentage (best case scenario) for the remainder of the season (25 games each), Philadelphia finishes with 34 wins and 48 loses and Milwaukee finishes with 38 wins and 42 loses.

Its obvious that the games remaining between Toronto and Milwaukee (2 more games left against each other) will and can play an important role on which team makes it to the postseason. If we were to base the outcome on winning percentage alone then the Raptors are a shoe-in for 8th and last playoff spot.

* the asterisk is there to denote that the winning percentage can be affected due to injuries to key players or the Raptor Cancer now called Andrea Bargnani. Bargnani has to be incorporated into the offence to make him trade-able at the end of the season which can affect offensive flow and chemistry (as they did against Washington).

2. panagnos wrote:
I have read several threads and posts in this forum where people have tried to predict the season's W-L results for the Raptors and their chances of making the playoffs.

I believe that looking at the Raptor's upcoming schedule, although there are merits to this approach, and trying to determine what the win/loss total will be for the rest of the season is shortsighted. A playoff team should be able to win both at home (handily) and on the road regardless of opponents and schedule. I agree that sometimes the schedule will get the best of any NBA team. The Raptors were rolling and a two day break gave them time to reflect and feel good about themselves instead of having them feel desperate about their current situation. The result was to lose a winnable game(according to the level of opponent).

I think the right way to determine the number of Wins and Loses for this current Raptor's team is to look at the winning percentage since the Gay trade and use this percentage to determine how many games they will win out of the 25 remaining games.

Based on the winning percentage the Raptors have since the Gay trade (7 Wins-4 Loses = .636% Winning Percentage) the Raptors should* win a total of 16 games, finishing the season at 39 Wins and 43 Loses. Would this be enough to make it?

If we look at Philadelphia and Milwaukee they are posting .400% and .200% winning percentages respectively the past 10 games. Lets assume they continue to struggle and post .450% winning percentage (best case scenario) for the remainder of the season (25 games each), Philadelphia finishes with 34 wins and 48 loses and Milwaukee finishes with 38 wins and 42 loses.

Its obvious that the games remaining between Toronto and Milwaukee (2 more games left against each other) will and can play an important role on which team makes it to the postseason. If we were to base the outcome on winning percentage alone then the Raptors are a shoe-in for 8th and last playoff spot.

* the asterisk is there to denote that the winning percentage can be affected due to injuries to key players or the Raptor Cancer now called Andrea Bargnani. Bargnani has to be incorporated into the offence to make him trade-able at the end of the season which can affect offensive flow and chemistry (as they did against Washington).
Im going to assume you havent applied to be Hollinger's replacement at espn? ..

I hear your point about trying to adjust for post the Gay trade .. but just using our winning %age is a pretty tough way to predict anything as it doesnt take into account strength of opponents and is a pretty small sample size so has lots of random stuff in it.

So .. yes, I think looking at the last 10 games or so is instructive .. but not sure it can be taken straight up as the best indicator of how a team wiill perform for the remainder of the season. I think I prefer the hollinger methodology that looks at strength of schedule and predicts winners and loser for each game and has us finishing 9th at 35-47.

3. mountio wrote:
Im going to assume you havent applied to be Hollinger's replacement at espn? ..

I hear your point about trying to adjust for post the Gay trade .. but just using our winning %age is a pretty tough way to predict anything as it doesnt take into account strength of opponents and is a pretty small sample size so has lots of random stuff in it.

So .. yes, I think looking at the last 10 games or so is instructive .. but not sure it can be taken straight up as the best indicator of how a team wiill perform for the remainder of the season. I think I prefer the hollinger methodology that looks at strength of schedule and predicts winners and loser for each game and has us finishing 9th at 35-47.
So my prediction is very close to Hollinger's +/- 3 games.

4. Since the Gay trade, this team kind of reminds me of the 1998-99 Raptors team, that finished a few games under .500, missed the playoffs, but were starting to develop a new identity with Carter. The next year, they won 45 games.

I could see this year's team starting to develop a new identity with Gay as option #1, miss the playoffs, and look to build on this improvement next year with some minor roster moves in the offseason.

5. Nilanka wrote:
Since the Gay trade, this team kind of reminds me of the 1998-99 Raptors team, that finished a few games under .500, missed the playoffs, but were starting to develop a new identity with Carter. The next year, they won 45 games.

I could see this year's team starting to develop a new identity with Gay as option #1, miss the playoffs, and look to build on this improvement next year with some minor roster moves in the offseason.
I would hope that by 'minor' you're talking about role of team and not contract size. I can think of one massive contract that needs to be moved, and I consider that a major roster move even if he's just a minor bench player at this point..

6. ebrian wrote:
I would hope that by 'minor' you're talking about role of team and not contract size. I can think of one massive contract that needs to be moved, and I consider that a major roster move even if he's just a minor bench player at this point..
Yes, I meant in terms of role.

But then again, bringing in Gasol (for example) would definitely be major, even if he's on an expiring deal.

7. The problem with your rational, is that if the raps lose tonight our winning % is lower, do you then recalculate what games they are going to win based on their new post gay record? And what about when a different team wins which changes their winning percentage? Or do we let the bucks play ten games (because they just added redick) and then fix their win %.

Although I do agree that they are playing better than their winning % right now I'm not optimistic that they can win 39 games. I think they're going to end up in the 34-37 range, which is probably not quite enough unless they beat the bucks twice and get some luck.

Although I think it's flawed, it's an interesting analysis, and probably as accurate as my arbitrary, I think they'll win this game, lose this game method which lead me to my 34 (lose to bucks twice) and 37 (beat bucks twice) scenarios.

Either way I think all hope of playoffs are lost if the raps DON'T win both games against Milwaukee.

8. Moderators, please do us a favour and close all threads discussing the playoffs.