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The value of an amnesty clause and contract roll backs from our perspective

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  • #46
    Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Very, very true.

    Just look at some of the trades proposed in our own forum (me included) - they are ridiculous.

    With that said, I do think Raptor fans (and all home fans) tend to overvalue their own players. Bargnani would be the exception with Raps fans, I think many undervalue him.
    Fans tend not to look at players objectively. Raptor fans are no different. They live and die with every win and loss and rarely look at the big picture. Many pay to watch the team play, so want their money's worth each and every time. And their feelings about players can change from one game to the next, often based on nothing tangible. Look at many Raptor fans reaction when Valanciunas was selected. I'd say most didn't like the pick, based on nothing except that he is European, so many considered him Bargnani 2.0. Obviously that was a ridiculous comparison and many have changed their mind after actually watching him play.
    Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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    • #47
      Tim W. wrote: View Post
      Fans tend not to look at players objectively. Raptor fans are no different. They live and die with every win and loss and rarely look at the big picture. Many pay to watch the team play, so want their money's worth each and every time. And their feelings about players can change from one game to the next, often based on nothing tangible. Look at many Raptor fans reaction when Valanciunas was selected. I'd say most didn't like the pick, based on nothing except that he is European, so many considered him Bargnani 2.0. Obviously that was a ridiculous comparison and many have changed their mind after actually watching him play.
      I watched the draft with buddies. They all freaked out - negatively. I kept telling them he was hands down the best prospect available and thought it was a solid pick. I got ridiculed, mocked, and insulted - mostly in good fun. A few weeks later I got a couple of emails: "Uh, maybe you were right on this."

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      • #48
        Matt52 wrote: View Post
        I watched the draft with buddies. They all freaked out - negatively. I kept telling them he was hands down the best prospect available and thought it was a solid pick. I got ridiculed, mocked, and insulted - mostly in good fun. A few weeks later I got a couple of emails: "Uh, maybe you were right on this."
        I was at home alone, but trying to do a couple of other things at the same time. I was thrilled when his name was called and figured, since he was projected to go higher, that most Raptor fans would also be happy. Boy was I wrong. When I looked online at the reaction I was more than a little dumbfounded.
        Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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        • #49
          I don't know how you could have been surprised, Tim. Most fans are just ig'nant. I mean, in what other arena in life would anyone possibly think they could run a team better than the pros, outside of sports, based on the miniscule amount of actual knowledge that you can accrue by reading online articles and watching (at max) 40 or so games a year on TV.

          I've watched a mechanic work on my car for a half-hour or so through a plate glass window, but I sure as hell don't think I can build a car. And that's a lot simpler task than building a competitive professional sports franchise.
          Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

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          • #50
            Matt52 wrote: View Post
            Very, very true.

            Just look at some of the trades proposed in our own forum (me included) - they are ridiculous.

            With that said, I do think Raptor fans (and all home fans) tend to overvalue their own players. Bargnani would be the exception with Raps fans, I think many undervalue him.

            Isn't that the question here though. Is it not just as possible that we are overvalung Andrea's value as others may be undervaluing him?

            No doubt fans overvalue/undervalue players for a multitude of different reasons... especially players of a fans home team. But doesn't that make what fans of other teams said about Andrea all the more damning?

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            • #51
              GarbageTime wrote: View Post
              Isn't that the question here though. Is it not just as possible that we are overvalung Andrea's value as others may be undervaluing him?

              No doubt fans overvalue/undervalue players for a multitude of different reasons... especially players of a fans home team. But doesn't that make what fans of other teams said about Andrea all the more damning?
              Overall, I don't think so in the case of Bargnani - and that is only my opinion.

              No doubt some fans of Bargnani place much more value on him than others. But overall, as a fan base, I think Bargnani is thought less of by Raptor fans than he would elsewhere (a glance through the nearly 4000 replies in Everything Bargnani may help confirm this statement).

              With regards to comments from other fans, that is a small sample size with one fan from each franchise and nearly half not responding. However, how many of those fans think Toronto is some hick town in a land of ice? Obviously that is another issue but I do not think there are many fans who have an unbiased view of a player on another team - especially a team that has as small of a following from the US and US media as Toronto. Much like the chats at HoopsWorld.com or ESPN, they are only re-hashing general 'truths' of a player.

              At the end of the day, it really doesn't matter what fans think appropriate value is for Bargnani. GM's are the one making the decisions. If I was a GM and had a C or PF like Howard, Bogut, Bynum, Oden (if ever healthy), Noah, Marc Gasol (basically a PF or C who is a great rebounder and good help defender) to pair with Bargnani I would see extreme value in a 25/26 year old 7-footer who can score from anywhere on the floor. Bargnani is a very talented player in the NBA who can do things few other players can do (yada yada yada, all been heard before, I know) but he needs certain pieces around him. Many of the teams that replied were correct in saying they'd have no need for him because they do not have the players to compliment him (Indiana for example), they did not have assets that would appeal to Toronto (Detroit for example) or they already have players better than him (LAL for example).

              Bargnani is not a building piece, he is a complementary piece to a team with a front line with strong rebounders and defenders.

              The problem in Toronto is it takes time to develop a team to meet the needs of a single player like Bargnani. The Raptors would be better off to trade him to a team that already has the make up to accommodate him. To me this team exists and it is Milwaukee. If I were the GM in Milwaukee I would be calling BC or whoever takes the call on prospective trades. Defensively, everything Toronto and Bargnani needs, Milwaukee has. Offensively, everything Toronto and Bargnani has, Milwaukee needs. The guy from the Pacers' blog summed it up nicely:

              The Pacers do need more scoring but I highly doubt they would target Bargnani. Him and Hibbert together would be one of the worst rebounding duos in the league. I think a team that can be successful with Andrea playing the four needs to have defensive-minded, tough, good-rebounder-for-their-position guys at the 3 and 5. Indy isn’t that team, and I think Larry Bird would agree. Indy’s financial woes also make Barg’s salary a huge burden — as I imagine it already is for Toronto and will be for any franchise. – Jared Wade
              Clearly this is only my opinion and it differs greatly from the fan in Milwaukee.

              For what it’s worth, I’m fairly certain Bargnani wouldn’t have much value to the Bucks. His liabilities as a defender and rebounder handicap him in such a way that Milwaukee wouldn’t feel comfortable playing him without Bogut to protect him. To have a player require something of a babysitter on the court wouldn’t fly with Scott Skiles. – Jeremy Schmidt
              My reasoning of why the Bucks would want Bargnani is right there in his reply: Bogut. How much success are Milwaukee going to have without Bogut? They are clearly a better team with Bogut playing. Teaming Bogut with Bargnani would make them even better, in my opinion. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. By this response, Milwaukee will only improve by adding to their strengths (defense and rebounding) and forgetting their weaknesses. Last year they missed the playoffs winning only 35 games yet they had a defensive rating of 4th best in the league and an opponents PPG of 3rd best. Their offense in both rating and PPG were dead last at 30. Milwaukee has the majority of their key players (minus Jennings and Sanders) who are in the prime of their careers. To me adding a player that addresses many of their weaknesses would be a beneficial and desirable move on their part considering they have the pieces already in place to compensate for him. The flip side of the coin is that Bargnani would be a player on the other side of the ball doing the compensation. As we all know though, ultimately, neither opinion, his or mine, is worth jack sheet unfortunately (or fortunately?).

              There is no right or wrong answer to a question of his value around the league - it is based on people's opinion who have no bearing on the real situation. The only people who really know value around the league with any credibility are GM's, however, it would always be anonymous due to tampering so the validity of the answers can be called in to question there too.
              Last edited by mcHAPPY; Sun Oct 9, 2011, 10:01 AM.

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              • #52
                Matt52 wrote: View Post
                Overall, I don't think so in the case of Bargnani - and that is only my opinion.

                No doubt some fans of Bargnani place much more value on him than others. But overall, as a fan base, I think Bargnani is thought less of by Raptor fans than he would elsewhere (a glance through the nearly 4000 replies in Everything Bargnani may help confirm this statement).

                With regards to comments from other fans, that is a small sample size with one fan from each franchise and nearly half not responding. However, how many of those fans think Toronto is some hick town in a land of ice? Obviously that is another issue but I do not think there are many fans who have an unbiased view of a player on another team - especially a team that has as small of a following from the US and US media as Toronto. Much like the chats at HoopsWorld.com or ESPN, they are only re-hashing general 'truths' of a player.

                At the end of the day, it really doesn't matter what fans think appropriate value is for Bargnani. GM's are the one making the decisions. If I was a GM and had a C or PF like Howard, Bogut, Bynum, Oden (if ever healthy), Noah, Marc Gasol (basically a PF or C who is a great rebounder and good help defender) to pair with Bargnani I would see extreme value in a 25/26 year old 7-footer who can score from anywhere on the floor. Bargnani is a very talented player in the NBA who can do things few other players can do (yada yada yada, all been heard before, I know) but he needs certain pieces around him. Many of the teams that replied were correct in saying they'd have no need for him because they do not have the players to compliment him (Indiana for example), they did not have assets that would appeal to Toronto (Detroit for example) or they already have players better than him (LAL for example).

                Bargnani is not a building piece, he is a complementary piece to a team with a front line with strong rebounders and defenders.

                The problem in Toronto is it takes time to develop a team to meet the needs of a single player like Bargnani. The Raptors would be better off to trade him to a team that already has the make up to accommodate him. To me this team exists and it is Milwaukee. If I were the GM in Milwaukee I would be calling BC or whoever takes the call on prospective trades. Defensively, everything Toronto and Bargnani needs, Milwaukee has. Offensively, everything Toronto and Bargnani has, Milwaukee needs. The guy from the Pacers' blog summed it up nicely:



                Clearly this is only my opinion and it differs greatly from the fan in Milwaukee.



                My reasoning of why the Bucks would want Bargnani is right there in his reply: Bogut. How much success are Milwaukee going to have without Bogut? They are clearly a better team with Bogut playing. Teaming Bogut with Bargnani would make them even better, in my opinion. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. By this response, Milwaukee will only improve by adding to their strengths (defense and rebounding) and forgetting their weaknesses. Last year they missed the playoffs winning only 35 games yet they had a defensive rating of 4th best in the league and an opponents PPG of 3rd best. Their offense in both rating and PPG were dead last at 30. Milwaukee has the majority of their key players (minus Jennings and Sanders) who are in the prime of their careers. To me adding a player that addresses many of their weaknesses would be a beneficial and desirable move on their part considering they have the pieces already in place to compensate for him. The flip side of the coin is that Bargnani would be a player on the other side of the ball doing the compensation. As we all know though, ultimately, neither opinion, his or mine, is worth jack sheet unfortunately (or fortunately?).

                There is no right or wrong answer to a question of his value around the league - it is based on people's opinion who have no bearing on the real situation. The only people who really know value around the league with any credibility are GM's, however, it would always be anonymous due to tampering so the validity of the answers can be called in to question there too.

                Hold on here.

                But overall, as a fan base, I think Bargnani is thought less of by Raptor fans than he would elsewhere
                but apparently the 'elsewhere':

                many of those fans think Toronto is some hick town in a land of ice? Obviously that is another issue but I do not think there are many fans who have an unbiased view of a player on another team - especially a team that has as small of a following from the US and US media as Toronto
                so Raps fans value him less than others would because we as fans are bias.... but those other fans are bias to so the undervalue him aswell?


                If I was a GM and had a C or PF like Howard, Bogut, Bynum, Oden (if ever healthy), Noah, Marc Gasol (basically a PF or C who is a great rebounder and good help defender) to pair with Bargnani I would see extreme value in a 25/26 year old 7-footer who can score from anywhere on the floor. Bargnani is a very talented player in the NBA who can do things few other players can do (yada yada yada, all been heard before, I know) but he needs certain pieces around him
                So Andrea needs a certain situation, with certain players in order to fit. Not only that but those same teams also, I imagine, would need cap space to make it work and not already have a superior player at his position.

                Do you see how this is limiting his "value"? Even then what would those right teams in the right situation have to offer for Andrea? Are they likely to have a young talented player or a high draft pick available? Or are they more likely to have a bad contract and a late first round pick? Is that worth more than opening up cap space and giving AMir and Ed more playing time?

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                • #53
                  GarbageTime wrote: View Post
                  Hold on here.



                  but apparently the 'elsewhere':



                  so Raps fans value him less than others would because we as fans are bias.... but those other fans are bias to so the undervalue him aswell?




                  So Andrea needs a certain situation, with certain players in order to fit. Not only that but those same teams also, I imagine, would need cap space to make it work and not already have a superior player at his position.

                  Do you see how this is limiting his "value"? Even then what would those right teams in the right situation have to offer for Andrea? Are they likely to have a young talented player or a high draft pick available? Or are they more likely to have a bad contract and a late first round pick? Is that worth more than opening up cap space and giving AMir and Ed more playing time?
                  I'm sorry if my point was not clear. I thought it was. We'll have to agree to disagree on his value around the league, his value by Raptors fans, and if Bargnani should be used on an amnesty clause.

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                  • #54
                    Garbage, why would you pay him $12M to walk away, when you could trade him for even a second round pick and NOT pay $12M? Think about it man. It just doesn't make fiscal sense to let an asset that you have invested so much time and effort into to just walk away for nothing, when there is ZERO detriment to keeping it around. Let alone PAYING more money to have this asset disappear.

                    They're NOT going to use the Amnesty on Bargnani. I know this for a fact. I will bet my life on it.
                    And it will be the right decision.

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                    • #55
                      According to Marc Stein at ESPN, the NBA owners, led by Peter Holt (Spurs) are pursuing a new wrinkle in terms of the amnesty clause.

                      http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...-clause-on-way

                      With the amnesty clause in 2005, teams only had two weeks to decide whether to use the amnesty and who on. After the two weeks the amnesty expired. Holt (and a growing number of other owners according to Stein) is attempting to extend that window and have 2+ years to use the amnesty; with the possibility of that number being up to 5 years.

                      The argument here is that not every team has a bad contract that they currently want to amnesty. This gives those teams an opportunity to use this clause on a future bad contract.

                      This type of situation would open up lots of different options. Teams could take a risk on a player that they would not otherwise, with the knowledge that they could get out from under it if things work out very poorly. This could bode well for a player with injury history (Roy, Oden) or a player with some mental instability (Artest, JR Smith).

                      It could also open up doors for teams to gain assets in a trade. A team could take on a bad contract in a trade in order to gain a few other assets, and then use their amnesty to rid themselves of this contract (Arenas). The amnesty in a way could become a bargaining chip in trades (not in terms of sending it to another team, but in terms of being the only team willing to take someone).

                      Thoughts? How can you see this type of amnesty clause assisting or hurting the Raptors?
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                      • #56
                        I think the new wrinkle would favor the rich and championship caliber-type teams because they could give an inflated contract to a difference maker knowing full well they will be able to void it at their convenience.

                        In my opinion, the more complicated the rules and exceptions, the more they favor the rich and powerful organizations.

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