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  • #16
    the pace is a HUGE problem. Slowing it down everytime and then dumping the ball to derozan/gay is not working, so why do we continue to do it?

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    • #17
      akashsingh wrote: View Post
      the pace is a HUGE problem. Slowing it down everytime and then dumping the ball to derozan/gay is not working, so why do we continue to do it?
      Because it's easy. Doesn't require much effort, thought, or discipline.

      POUND DA ROCK!

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      • #18
        So Ross may get his shot to be starter if he continues to play solid in his time off the bench like he has been and DeRozan is moved for assets.

        Would Ty Lawson be a good point for this team?

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        • #19
          Rapstor4Life wrote: View Post
          Would Ty Lawson be a good point for this team?
          People keep bringing up Ty Lawson like Denver didn't give him a four-year $12m extension last year.

          Maybe this needs to be put in bold: Denver thinks Ty Lawson is the cornerstone of the Nuggets going forward and will not trade him for anything less than a superstar. MAYBE they would move him for Jonas, but not anybody else on our roster.
          Last edited by magoon; Thu Nov 7, 2013, 03:13 PM.

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          • #20
            Brandon wrote:
            Lowry's just a footsoldier, doing what the regime wants. Statistically, he is also helping the team despite what you may think. The ball players not helping the team are the highly-paid wings.
            Lowry has been steady. Not turning the ball over very much or taking bad shots. He would be a great back up PG, but we need him to create for the wings (as well as the bigs), so they don't have to. What we are seeing is a result of the wings having to create their own offense.

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            • #21
              I care very little for assists on a team level. Instinctually, it seems like a high assist rate means a good offense, but statistically it does not bear out. AST/100 possessions has absolutely no correlation with ORTG (R2 value of 0.02) and little correlation with wins (R2 = 0.11).
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • #22
                magoon wrote: View Post
                People keep bringing up Ty Lawson like Denver didn't give him a four-year $12m extension last year.

                Maybe this needs to be put in bold: Denver thinks Ty Lawson is the cornerstone of the Nuggets going forward and will not trade him for anything less than a superstar. MAYBE they would move him for Jonas, but not anybody else on our roster.
                Although, to look at it a different way:

                It was Masai who signed him to that deal, and new GMs often like to purge out personnel they didn't hand-pick.

                But I agree: other than this year's first-rounder and JV, I don't think we have any assets we could offer for Lawson that wouldn't be straight-up insulting.
                "Stop eating your sushi."
                "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                - Jack Armstrong

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                • #23
                  DanH wrote: View Post
                  I care very little for assists on a team level. Instinctually, it seems like a high assist rate means a good offense, but statistically it does not bear out. AST/100 possessions has absolutely no correlation with ORTG (R2 value of 0.02) and little correlation with wins (R2 = 0.11).
                  I call Bullshit, some things arn't measured in stats. teams that move the ball win, period.

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                  • #24
                    JimiCliff wrote: View Post
                    Although, to look at it a different way:

                    It was Masai who signed him to that deal, and new GMs often like to purge out personnel they didn't hand-pick.

                    But I agree: other than this year's first-rounder and JV, I don't think we have any assets we could offer for Lawson that wouldn't be straight-up insulting.
                    At least JV would be used the right way in Denver. Other than getting benched here after scoring the first 10 points for the raps.
                    A wise man once said: F*ck Brooklyn!

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                    • #25
                      Craig wrote: View Post
                      teams that move the ball win, period.
                      While I generally agree with this, I wanted to look into it a little more...

                      2008-09 Raptors - 5th in the NBA in Assists Per Game with 22.4apg. Finished 33-49
                      2009-10 Raptors - 9th in the NBA in Assists Per Game with 22apg. Finished 40-42
                      2010-11 Raptors - 11th in the NBA in Assists Per Game with 21.9apg. Finished 22-60
                      2011-12 Raptors - 13th in the NBA in ASsists Per Game with 20.9apg. Finished (projected) 29-53
                      2012-13 Raptors - 20th in the NBA in Assists Per Game with 21.5apg. Finished 34-48

                      Looking at the Raptors specifically, I really don't see any correlation between the two.
                      Generally the top team is near the top in apg; But vice-versa, being near the top doesn't always refelct in the Wins column.

                      Also worth noting, the 2010-11 Rockets team, headed by Lowry, lead the League in Assists per game.
                      As many have stated, I miss the old Lowry.

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                      • #26
                        Craig wrote: View Post
                        I call Bullshit, some things arn't measured in stats. teams that move the ball win, period.
                        Definitely. I mean just look at the Knicks last year. 54 wins and they were 2nd in assists per possession. Oh, wait that's 2nd last. 29th. Sorry. Pacers 26th, 49 wins. Nets 25th, 49 wins. OKC 24th, 60 wins. Grizzlies 20th, 56 wins.

                        Moving the ball is all well and good, but looking at a team's assist totals and proclaiming that as a problem doesn't jive with reality.
                        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                        • #27
                          Assists =/= Ball movement

                          Just a reminder, ball movement leads to easy open shots, which will have the same assist rate as a single player running the play Jose-style and getting assists.

                          Saying that assists do not correlate to winning basketball is ignorant to say the least. Remember that stats, for all its uses, has its limits.

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                          • #28
                            joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                            While I generally agree with this, I wanted to look into it a little more...

                            2008-09 Raptors - 5th in the NBA in Assists Per Game with 22.4apg. Finished 33-49
                            2009-10 Raptors - 9th in the NBA in Assists Per Game with 22apg. Finished 40-42
                            2010-11 Raptors - 11th in the NBA in Assists Per Game with 21.9apg. Finished 22-60
                            2011-12 Raptors - 13th in the NBA in ASsists Per Game with 20.9apg. Finished (projected) 29-53
                            2012-13 Raptors - 20th in the NBA in Assists Per Game with 21.5apg. Finished 34-48

                            Looking at the Raptors specifically, I really don't see any correlation between the two.
                            Generally the top team is near the top in apg; But vice-versa, being near the top doesn't always refelct in the Wins column.

                            Also worth noting, the 2010-11 Rockets team, headed by Lowry, lead the League in Assists per game.
                            As many have stated, I miss the old Lowry.
                            High assists does not mean ball movement.

                            Calderon, for example, would pound the piss out of the ball looking for a wing coming off screens or pick/roll with a big. That is not necessarily moving the ball - it is not what I call ball movement.

                            The HEAT game was beautiful to watch (same with the Spurs) as the ball goes side to side and touches all players. That sequence versus the Bucks was a thing of beauty.

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                            • #29
                              Matt52 wrote: View Post
                              High assists does not mean ball movement.

                              Calderon, for example, would pound the piss out of the ball looking for a wing coming off screens or pick/roll with a big. That is not necessarily moving the ball - it is not what I call ball movement.

                              The HEAT game was beautiful to watch (same with the Spurs) as the ball goes side to side and touches all players. That sequence versus the Bucks was a thing of beauty.
                              Its a bit of a statistical conundrum I think. (*warning - early morning rambling on #s. May only make sense in my own head)

                              Without question assists =/= ball movement. However, ball movement should tend to = assists (or atleast more assists on average than a team with less ball movement).

                              But there are ofcourse some questions with how assists are counted that could effect why assists do not correlate with winning (as DanH pointed out).

                              1) no FT shot is assisted, although there could be plenty of FTs that were created by a pass

                              - an averge NBA team last year had approx 7800 possessions for the season, of those approx 10% are FTs (assuming 0.45FTA). For what its worth, FTs made also account for 17% of all points scored.


                              2) the 'rules' for counting assists. If I'm not mistaken, an assist is counted when a player scores a FG off a pass and takes 2 or less dribbles (not sure if their is a time requirement aswell). Now I have absolutely no idea how to go about accounting for that as I don't think anyone has a 'could have been an assist but wasn't counted stat' (but then again who knows with the number of stats that are collected these days)

                              3) an assist for a 2pt fg = assist for a 3pt fg (ie. an assist is an assist), but a 2pt fg =/= to a 3pt FG. (in theory we could argue that, if an assist = X, then an assist on a 3pt fg should be worth X(1.5))

                              4) half the game its impossible to get an assist as a team is playing defense.

                              5) assist can only exist (be counted anyways) on approx 40% of all possible offensive possessions (FGAs) - can't assist on a FT (above), missed FG or a TO.


                              And now that I have written that all out, it actually makes a ton of sense as to why assists don't correlate strongly with wins (they account for a fraction of half the game - a 100% assist rate would only = 20% of the entire possessions of a game), but what makes less sense to me is how it correlates less strongly with ORTG than with wins. I would expect, since assists account for a part of 10% of a teams offensive possessions (ie. 10% of all possessions are assisted to possible max of 40%), but only 5% of a teams total possessions (offense + defense to a max of 20%), it should have a bigger impact on ORTG than wins - buts thats just me theorizing and theory doesn't equal reality.

                              So all said and done - assist are probably 'underrated' because of how they are counted + scoring (if pt differential = wins, and 20% of pts come from is 'extra' pts from 3s + ftm), but still easily only a small part of winning.
                              Last edited by Craiger; Fri Nov 8, 2013, 09:40 AM.

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                              • #30
                                As one of the other posters on this thread mentioned a team like the Knicks whom had a good record last year, but were 2nd last in assits are a good indicator that assists don't neccessarily equal wins, but you have to also take into consideration that they had great one on one players. Melo was the scoring champ, and JR Smith a 6th man of the year candidate.

                                On a team like the Raptors, without a superstar or great one on one players, a low assist rate is very bad thing. At the least its a great indicator that we have poor ball movement.

                                I've brought his name up a few times in other threads, but I think if MU and TL decide not to tank and to try and compete on the while building on the fly, then a PG like Rajon Rondo (if healthy) could solve a lot of the problems on this team. Lowry and our first rounder?

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