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There is an elephant in the room and his name is Rudy

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  • #31
    themasao wrote: View Post
    Not sure why this has to be the case. I think if you get a serviceable wing as one of the pieces coming back, then all is not lost for this season. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but both the Washington and especially the Milwaukee trades mentioned above would not throw this season down the drain.

    That's why I see the most important aspect of any trade for Gay as getting a mid 1st to lottery pick in return. That way you don't HAVE to tank to still get in on this stacked draft.

    If you can pull a solid current prospect in the process, even better. Either way, don't see why trading Gay automatically means tanking.
    I think if you remove Gay from this roster it is a 25 win team.

    If you get a serviceable wing it is a 30 win team.

    If Lowry goes down for any length of time, you can start reducing wins by at an 80% rate for each game he misses. There is no Calderon to pick up the pieces this year.

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    • #32
      themasao wrote: View Post
      Agreed on the trade. I'm anticipating the POR pick to land in the 11 - 16 range anyways which would be perfect.

      As for cap space. I guess I shouldn't say it's useless other than in free agency. It's more so that practically speaking, for us as a team, it has proven to be useless. Colangelo spent many a press-conference emphasizing the value of trade exceptions and flexibility -- it always just struck me as wishful thinking. More often than not, cap space turns into overpayed middling players and trade exceptions expire. Especially for none marquee teams like the Raptors.
      With a GM who has an urge to do something for the sake of doing something, I agree. With Ujiri, I don't. Look at how he handled Bargnani; look how he has handled the whole build/tank speculation - the man is made of ice.

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      • #33
        Matt52 wrote: View Post
        I think if you remove Gay from this roster it is a 25 win team.

        If you get a serviceable wing it is a 30 win team.

        If Lowry goes down for any length of time, you can start reducing wins by at an 80% rate for each game he misses. There is no Calderon to pick up the pieces this year.
        Out of curiosity, how many wins do you think this team wins with Gay for a full season? Because I'd say it's got to be around 40-42 (barring injury). Which means Gay is a 10+ WAR player. That's got to be worth 17 mil a year...

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        • #34
          themasao wrote: View Post
          Out of curiosity, how many wins do you think this team wins with Gay for a full season? Because I'd say it's got to be around 40-42 (barring injury). Which means Gay is a 10+ WAR player. That's got to be worth 17 mil a year...
          40-42, in my opinion, assumes no injuries, guys meeting all potential, and guys having career years.

          I just don't think it is reasonable because every year has injuries, guys underachieving, and guys having career worst years.

          I think this team wins 35 games tops.

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          • #35
            Right but the comparison has to be mutatis mutandis. It's either team with Gay assuming no injuries vs. team without Gay assuming no injuries, or vice verca.

            If it's a 40 win team with Gay, in a vacuum, and a 30 win team, without Gay, in a vacuum, then Gay's isolated influence on your average team is 10 wins above average replacement. That's ridiculously impressive. Even a 5 win difference maker is pretty hard to find.

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            • #36
              I would re-sign him.

              Like i said over and over again. Gay is the best player the Raps have had since VC. And now you all want him gone?
              Mamba Mentality

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              • #37
                TRex wrote: View Post
                I would re-sign him.

                Like i said over and over again. Gay is the best player the Raps have had since VC. And now you all want him gone?
                Only way i'd trade gay is if we get an up and coming player and some bench depth. I really want Tobias Harris, dude is a beast. But the only time you do that is if the team doesn't live up to this supposed hype and we end up crumbling like we did last year.

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                • #38
                  I know this is likely wishful thinking but....from what I gather the Bulls and Deng aren't exactly seeing eye to eye on a contract extension. Can anyone come up with a scenario that he ends up here? I have high hopes for Gay this year, but I'd be thrilled if we could somehow land Deng. He'd bring the defence in toughness MU is preaching (along with Casey for now...) he can hit the three he comes from a winning team I think he'd be a perfect fit. Thoughts?
                  Sunny ways my friends, sunny ways
                  Because its 2015

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                  • #39
                    themasao wrote: View Post
                    Right but the comparison has to be mutatis mutandis. It's either team with Gay assuming no injuries vs. team without Gay assuming no injuries, or vice verca.

                    If it's a 40 win team with Gay, in a vacuum, and a 30 win team, without Gay, in a vacuum, then Gay's isolated influence on your average team is 10 wins above average replacement. That's ridiculously impressive. Even a 5 win difference maker is pretty hard to find.

                    I'm not assuming no injuries because that rarely happens and I also included potential/underachievement and career best/worst years.

                    If you are asking me how many games this team wins this year: 35. I've been wrong before and likely will again.

                    If they trade Gay with little coming back except prospects and picks: 25.

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                    • #40
                      themasao wrote: View Post
                      Out of curiosity, how many wins do you think this team wins with Gay for a full season? Because I'd say it's got to be around 40-42 (barring injury). Which means Gay is a 10+ WAR player. That's got to be worth 17 mil a year...
                      not sure if this was serious, but....taking a team from 30 to 40 wins isn't worth 17 million....taking a team from 50 to 60 is.

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                      • #41
                        Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
                        I know this is likely wishful thinking but....from what I gather the Bulls and Deng aren't exactly seeing eye to eye on a contract extension. Can anyone come up with a scenario that he ends up here? I have high hopes for Gay this year, but I'd be thrilled if we could somehow land Deng. He'd bring the defence in toughness MU is preaching (along with Casey for now...) he can hit the three he comes from a winning team I think he'd be a perfect fit. Thoughts?
                        Very easy.

                        Gay is traded or opts out of his deal signing elsewhere.

                        Raptors offer Deng a contract with cap space.... assuming no other contracts added other than a first round pick they'd likely have around $18-20M.

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                        • #42
                          Jclaw wrote: View Post
                          not sure if this was serious, but....taking a team from 30 to 40 wins isn't worth 17 million....taking a team from 50 to 60 is.
                          That is the thing.

                          If Toronto had a way to add more pieces that take them from 40 to 50+.... great! I'm all in for keeping the core.

                          Unfortunately, even without a starting PG they'll be over the cap next year with Gay at $19.3M.

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                          • #43
                            Matt52 wrote: View Post
                            I think if you remove Gay from this roster it is a 25 win team.
                            Rudy has never had a terribly impressive WARP - which is to be expected given that he's always been a bit of a volume shooter/iso shot creator. Jonas, Amir, and Kyle are the major win contributors on this team.

                            If Lowry goes down for any length of time, you can start reducing wins by at an 80% rate for each game he misses. There is no Calderon to pick up the pieces this year.
                            This is much more accurate, but if you think Jose is a better PG than Kyle is - and I do - Calderon wasn't so much "picking up the pieces" as he was simply playing better basketball.

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                            • #44
                              Matt52 wrote: View Post
                              Very easy.

                              Gay is traded or opts out of his deal signing elsewhere.

                              Raptors offer Deng a contract with cap space.... assuming no other contracts added other than a first round pick they'd likely have around $18-20M.
                              I like where your heads at.
                              Sunny ways my friends, sunny ways
                              Because its 2015

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                              • #45
                                magoon wrote: View Post
                                Rudy has never had a terribly impressive WARP - which is to be expected given that he's always been a bit of a volume shooter/iso shot creator. Jonas, Amir, and Kyle are the major win contributors on this team.



                                This is much more accurate, but if you think Jose is a better PG than Kyle is - and I do - Calderon wasn't so much "picking up the pieces" as he was simply playing better basketball.
                                First point: I love stats. Really do. Great way to back up the eye test. But stats don't consider talent and Rudy has it. The numbers might not back me up but I think Rudy adds a significant number of wins not only for his production but also because DD can now go against a weaker defender. The reality is Toronto, while with more talent than most previous years, are still a team in need of talent upgrades. They just aren't good enough top to bottom - but especially at the top.


                                I think Kyle is a better player than Jose. I think Jose is a better point guard than Kyle on the offensive side of the ball.

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