What If We Don't Retain Lowry This Summer?

[DanH]

Actually, Lowry's trade value is diminishing as his contract comes to an end. We've seen that expirings have far less value than they used to.

After being underpaid the last few years, it's almost guaranteed that Lowry is going to want to cash in this offseason. So an extend-and-trade is probably out of the question. And under the new CBA, players have less incentive to do a sign-and-trade than they used to. (See 92 of Larry coon's CBA FAQ.)

It's very unlikely we get a lotto pick for a Lowry rental. So if we trade Lowry before the deadline, you have to wonder whether the return was worth the drop in draft position.

And if Lowry doesn't get dealt... We better pray he re-signs or has a reason to take a sign-and-trade.

Only hope for a sign and trade is if a team over the cap and Lowry have mutual interest.

[JawsGT]

Trading Lowry wouldn't be about getting back a great pick. It would be about improving our 2014 pick through losing, which, most would agree is a likely case if he gets moved. In any event, a few more losses in the next week or so to sub-par teams like the Celts and Lakers and we won't have to worry about this in the summer. Lowry will be gone by the deadline!!

[planetmars]

Trading Lowry at the deadline is a death wish for MU. That's derailing any playoff success for a mediocre pick (either 8th seed and destroyed by Indiana/Miami) or just outside the playoffs. That's the no man's land that I envision MU was trying to avoid.

I think its too late to trade Lowry. You hope he doesn't get an injury and that he sustains his play until the end of the year. You hope you can resign him to a decent salary (and I think it might be possible due the saturated PG market) and then look to trade him next year if they really want him gone. I just hope they don't over pay him as then I think it becomes harder to trade him if that's the goal.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

If we don't re-sign Kyle Lowry, and we don't trade him, then you guys may as well un-censor the †ank word because it'll be back in force next season.

And group-think will wonder why the Raptors didn't start the rebuild/retool last season, ahead of the loaded 2014 draft, while watching so many well known prospects make names for themselves as rookies while playing against the Raptors and helping their teams leapfrog Toronto in the standings. Good times!

[magoon]

If he is not here then you assess if Vasquez can play 35 mins and win. If your not sold on that then you sign an upgrade out of FA - Kirk Hinrich may be the best choice

Hinrich is shooting 29% FG this year and has a PER of 9.1. He's on the steep downside of his career and in no way represents an upgrade to anybody. The Bulls signed D.J. Augustin to make sure Hinrich played less minutes.

As I've said here before: Lowry is the only above average PG who is available in free agency next year. Seriously, here is a list on unrestricted free agent point guards in 2014:

Lowry
Hinrich
Mario Chalmers
Jerryd Bayless
Luke Ridnour
Shaun Livingston
Ramon Sessions
Patty Mills
Jimmer Fredette
Devin Harris
Aaron Brooks
AJ Price
Beno Udrih
Nate Robinson (player option)
Darren Collison (player option)
Mo Williams (player option)
Eric Maynor (player option)

Look at that list. It's mostly a bunch of career backups and scrubs. Other than Lowry, the only starter-quality PGs on that list are Mario Chalmers (who is okay) and MAYBE Nate Robinson. Lowry is going to command a high salary for that reason alone: someone is going to offer him at least $12m per year, especially if he goes to the All-Star Game. This is why I've been so inclined to trade him: he's going to be more expensive than he's worth.

[ibreak4coffee]

If you're content letting Lowry go (and I can follow the rationale for it), you just need to be comfortable with Greivis Vasquez playing 35-40 minutes a game over the next two seasons

[Balls of Steel]

Just an idea. Would u guys do this?

To Raptors - Rubio + Wolves 1st round pick.

To Wolves - Lowry.

Asked this earlier. I think it makes sense given KL's fave coach is Adelman (although that guy may retire soon). Minny is in win now mode and Love's looming free agency is real.

[Balls of Steel]

And group-think will wonder why the Raptors didn't start the rebuild/retool last season, ahead of the loaded 2014 draft, while watching so many well known prospects make names for themselves as rookies while playing against the Raptors and helping their teams leapfrog Toronto in the standings. Good times!

Not so fast. These so-called game changers may be getting performance cold feet. Tanking this season is still not a slam dunk!

http://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/n...014-nba-draft/

[psrs1]

Just an idea. Would u guys do this?

To Raptors - Rubio + Wolves 1st round pick.

To Wolves - Lowry.

Yes but no way Wolves are giving up on Rubio yet.

[psrs1]

I think the assumption is that Lowry has more value than what you're insinuating. An example would be the rumored Knicks trade, which was well before Lowry's performance really took off. IF MU has reason to believe that Lowry won't be coming back (either because of Lowry's choice or salary demands), then any net-positive trade would be better for the long-term interests of this team. Obviously you don't trade him (and sacrifice playoffs this season) for garbage, or just to ****, as you mentioned.

It seems you have agreement with me despite your previous concerns re asset management. You previously seemed disinclined to risk letting Lowry walk if the right trade does not come along.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

It seems you have agreement with me despite your previous concerns re asset management. You previously seemed disinclined to risk letting Lowry walk if the right trade does not come along.

Letting Lowry walk for nothing would be my last resort. If I was MU and I firmly believed that Lowry wanted out of Toronto, based on in-season conversations with Lowry and/or Lowry's agent, I would take the best trade possible, even if it wasn't a "great" trade. The one thing I wouldn't do is agree to a trade that leaves the team in worse shape, just for the sake of trading, but I believe Lowry can return a net-positive trade package despite being on an expiring contract (ie: even an expiring contract and 2nd round pick is better than losing him for nothing).

If the best possible return via trade is of minimal value (ie: late 2nd round pick) and the Raps look like they have a legitimate shot at hosting a 1st round playoff series, then the benefits of keeping him this season would outweigh the outcome of losing him for nothing. If sneaking into the playoffs as a low seed is the Raptors' ceiling, then I don't think twice about trading him for the best possible net-positive deal.

Option #1) trade Lowry for great return

Option #2) trade Lowry for any positive return, assuming Raptors' ceiling is #5-8 seed

Option #3) keep Lowry*, assuming Raptors ceiling is #3-4 seed and no great trade is available

* if Lowry ever makes it clear that he is definitely not interested in coming back, you trade him for any positive return, regardless of playoff positioning


Hopefully that clarifies my stance.

[ebrian]

Sidebar: Rubio has zero scoring ability. I don't think a guy like that will ever be a legitimate scorer and therefore, he'll never really be that effective on the team that is full of shooters. He's the type of guy that will help a team like Miami who has 2-3 superstars and you don't really need the point guard to do anything but pass the ball and play defense.

I remember when I wanted us to draft Kemba Walker and then he went and shot 37% in his rookie season and I thought OK maybe we dodged a bullet there. But looking at Rubio, Kemba's rookie year would be a career high for Rubio and Kemba has gotten progressively better.. Rubio has not.

[Rapstor4Life]

Rubio sucks so overrated.

[psrs1]

Letting Lowry walk for nothing would be my last resort. If I was MU and I firmly believed that Lowry wanted out of Toronto, based on in-season conversations with Lowry and/or Lowry's agent, I would take the best trade possible, even if it wasn't a "great" trade. The one thing I wouldn't do is agree to a trade that leaves the team in worse shape, just for the sake of trading, but I believe Lowry can return a net-positive trade package despite being on an expiring contract (ie: even an expiring contract and 2nd round pick is better than losing him for nothing).

If the best possible return via trade is of minimal value (ie: late 2nd round pick) and the Raps look like they have a legitimate shot at hosting a 1st round playoff series, then the benefits of keeping him this season would outweigh the outcome of losing him for nothing. If sneaking into the playoffs as a low seed is the Raptors' ceiling, then I don't think twice about trading him for the best possible net-positive deal.

Option #1) trade Lowry for great return

Option #2) trade Lowry for any positive return, assuming Raptors' ceiling is #5-8 seed

Option #3) keep Lowry*, assuming Raptors ceiling is #3-4 seed and no great trade is available

* if Lowry ever makes it clear that he is definitely not interested in coming back, you trade him for any positive return, regardless of playoff positioning


Hopefully that clarifies my stance.

Clarified. I don't think much more than filler and 2nd round pick will come back if we trade Lowry at this point. The problem with trying to get home court advantage first round is we may not know until last 3 games of regular season and could end up 7th or 8 th and be bounced early if Brooklyn takes division. At that point it is too late to do anything. I think we are stuck riding out the season with current roster for better or for worse. Hopefully Lowry will continue to excel.

[BrydenB]

If the Raptors don't get a point guard in the draft, and Lowry wants big money, I would let him leave and throw that money at Reggie Jackson