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BC has 2 years - what would you do if you were him?

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  • #31
    What if the Raptors sign Jordan and he decides he wants to become a woman, quits basketball and headlines in Vegas?

    Anything is possible if you're going to go down that road. The trick is to figure out what the best odds and play them.

    The fact is that Toronto is most likely going to be one of the worst teams in the league next year. Trying to improve them slightly does them no good and there's a good chance it actually does them some harm in the long run. I'm not suggesting ANYTHING is guaranteed, but the point is to give yourself the absolute best chance you can.

    It's all about increasing your chances.

    The upside is that the Raptors get a franchise player. The downside is they don't, but still have money to spend on a free agent. And they'll probably have a better idea what they want to spend it on, so will spend it more wisely.

    I have to say I've always hated when someone brings up the Clippers as the downside to trying to build through the lottery. The only thing the Clippers are are an example of what happens when a franchise is managed horribly. If the team is going to managed horribly, then there's absolutely nothing that can be done to prevent that path from being followed.

    Oklahoma was lucky by drafting Durant, yes, but they were also incredibly smart, not spending money and being patient with their young players. When it was clear what the team needed (a defensive center), they had the ability to go out and trade for one.
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    • #32
      Tim W. wrote: View Post
      What if the Raptors sign Jordan and he decides he wants to become a woman, quits basketball and headlines in Vegas?

      Anything is possible if you're going to go down that road. The trick is to figure out what the best odds and play them.
      The fact is that Toronto is most likely going to be one of the worst teams in the league next year. Trying to improve them slightly does them no good and there's a good chance it actually does them some harm in the long run. I'm not suggesting ANYTHING is guaranteed, but the point is to give yourself the absolute best chance you can.

      It's all about increasing your chances.

      The upside is that the Raptors get a franchise player. The downside is they don't, but still have money to spend on a free agent. And they'll probably have a better idea what they want to spend it on, so will spend it more wisely.

      I have to say I've always hated when someone brings up the Clippers as the downside to trying to build through the lottery. The only thing the Clippers are are an example of what happens when a franchise is managed horribly. If the team is going to managed horribly, then there's absolutely nothing that can be done to prevent that path from being followed.

      Oklahoma was lucky by drafting Durant, yes, but they were also incredibly smart, not spending money and being patient with their young players. When it was clear what the team needed (a defensive center), they had the ability to go out and trade for one.
      the bolded part is exactly it though. I really don't want to see this team not taking good opportunities (ie. productive players at a fair price) when they are available to them, especially when the team doesn't need to give up an asset to get them.

      And this isn't about winning a few more games this year... far from it. But I don't want to see the team not take a good opportunity because it may mean a few more wins, which may mean a worse pick, which may mean a 'not as good' player, which may or may not turn out anyways.

      Like you said OKC got 'lucky' with Durant. Not taking an good opportunity so that the team can hopefully get 'lucky' later has a huge opportunity cost.

      I guess its just my risk aversion is much higher than yours.

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      • #33
        what do you guys think of dealing calderon for some picks and sign jamaal tinsley as a veteran back up for bayless. I know hes a bit old but he will be good for a another 1 or 2 years until we draft a PG and he could mentor bayless a bit.

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        • #34
          NoPropsneeded wrote: View Post
          what do you guys think of dealing calderon for some picks and sign jamaal tinsley as a veteran back up for bayless. I know hes a bit old but he will be good for a another 1 or 2 years until we draft a PG and he could mentor bayless a bit.
          If someone would take on Calderon's contract AND throw in a couple of picks, I'd be all for it.

          As for Jamal Tinsley, no thanks. He has not played in years. If you are curious how he is going to do, I would take a look at Penney Hardaway's attempt to comeback after a few years away from the game. *Now would not be a good time to bring up MJ, either - lol*

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          • #35
            Matt52 wrote: View Post
            If someone would take on Calderon's contract AND throw in a couple of picks, I'd be all for it.

            As for Jamal Tinsley, no thanks. He has not played in years. If you are curious how he is going to do, I would take a look at Penney Hardaway's attempt to comeback after a few years away from the game. *Now would not be a good time to bring up MJ, either - lol*
            idk i think JT will do pretty good. He looked good at the impact league and i heard he's been working out for a full year and weighs less than his last year in indiana. I'd take a look at him(no not in that way you sick minded people out there)

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            • #36
              GarbageTime wrote: View Post
              the bolded part is exactly it though. I really don't want to see this team not taking good opportunities (ie. productive players at a fair price) when they are available to them, especially when the team doesn't need to give up an asset to get them.

              And this isn't about winning a few more games this year... far from it. But I don't want to see the team not take a good opportunity because it may mean a few more wins, which may mean a worse pick, which may mean a 'not as good' player, which may or may not turn out anyways.

              Like you said OKC got 'lucky' with Durant. Not taking an good opportunity so that the team can hopefully get 'lucky' later has a huge opportunity cost.

              I guess its just my risk aversion is much higher than yours.
              You HAVE to take a risk. Playing it safe usually leads to mediocrity in the NBA. On the one hand you've got Jerry West, who traded a top 10 center for a high school rookie. And then you've got Larry Bird, who seems to want to go after the safe pick rather than the player with a higher ceiling, but maybe less a sure thing. Indiana is currently a mediocre team, while Kobe is still leading his team deep into the Finals.

              And why are you so adamant that the Raptors sign a free agent NOW? There are good free agents available nearly every summer. Why not wait when you a) know what you need more and b) know your financial situation better. Is Calderon, Bargnani and Barbosa going to continue to be with the team? How far away is the team to making the playoffs?

              You're afraid of missing an opportunity, but is this too good an opportunity to pass up and one that doesn't come along very often? I don't think so. FIrst of all, Toronto will have to overpay him in order to get him to sign for two reasons. The first is that the team just won 22 games, and free agents don't tend to want to sign with bad teams. Secondly, they just drafted a center who looks to have a lot of potential, so you're going to have to convince him to sign despite that, and that probably means more money. The Clippers are going to match any reasonable offer, since Kaman is either being traded, or is going to probably walk after his contract expires in a year.

              So if you think overpaying a young center right after you draft a potentially very good young center is a good opportunity, then we have different opinions about what a good opportunity is.
              Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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              • #37
                NoPropsneeded wrote: View Post
                what do you guys think of dealing calderon for some picks and sign jamaal tinsley as a veteran back up for bayless. I know hes a bit old but he will be good for a another 1 or 2 years until we draft a PG and he could mentor bayless a bit.
                A "couple of picks"? What exactly does that mean? If you can get a first round pick in next year's draft for Calderon, I'd probably take it.

                As for Tinsley, if you want a guy who can mentor Bayless on how to blow a great opportunity, waste your skill and act unprofessionally, then he's probably the guy you want. Otherwise, I'd stay as far away from him as possible.
                Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
                Follow me on Twitter.

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                • #38
                  Tim W. wrote: View Post
                  You HAVE to take a risk. Playing it safe usually leads to mediocrity in the NBA. On the one hand you've got Jerry West, who traded a top 10 center for a high school rookie. And then you've got Larry Bird, who seems to want to go after the safe pick rather than the player with a higher ceiling, but maybe less a sure thing. Indiana is currently a mediocre team, while Kobe is still leading his team deep into the Finals.

                  And why are you so adamant that the Raptors sign a free agent NOW? There are good free agents available nearly every summer. Why not wait when you a) know what you need more and b) know your financial situation better. Is Calderon, Bargnani and Barbosa going to continue to be with the team? How far away is the team to making the playoffs?

                  You're afraid of missing an opportunity, but is this too good an opportunity to pass up and one that doesn't come along very often? I don't think so. FIrst of all, Toronto will have to overpay him in order to get him to sign for two reasons. The first is that the team just won 22 games, and free agents don't tend to want to sign with bad teams. Secondly, they just drafted a center who looks to have a lot of potential, so you're going to have to convince him to sign despite that, and that probably means more money. The Clippers are going to match any reasonable offer, since Kaman is either being traded, or is going to probably walk after his contract expires in a year.

                  So if you think overpaying a young center right after you draft a potentially very good young center is a good opportunity, then we have different opinions about what a good opportunity is.
                  If you HAVE to take risks, why have you been so anti-bargnani since his draft... have the Raptors ever had anyone with a higher potential ceiling besides Vince Carter? Sure now its clear we know what he is (in)capable of, but you always maintained your dislike for his game since he was drafted. In his first couple years did you ever say he needs 30 minutes to see if he can improve to reach his ceiling? Now though the team has to be risky?

                  And its not about just about taking risks, its about the level of risk vs. the opportunities (like you said before the best odds which shouldn't be confused with the highest odds).

                  And I'm sorry, Indiana wasn't a contender since Kobe was drafted? They are a team rebuilding that just made the playoffs (by being the best of the worst) but it was still since Kobe was drafted that they had and lost a franchise player, due to injury (and the team in general due to the rumble in the palace).

                  and I'm not adamant that they go after a FA now. It was one alternative dependent on the time frame and availability. Never a do or die situation. I also never said to overpay them... I clearly stated if it was relative to the terms of the deal. I just don't see that as short sighted.. I see that, as we both stated earlier, as hedging your bets. While hedging your bets MAY not give a reward as big as 'going all in' (so to speak), it will cover your ass from tremendous failures.

                  Don't take this the wrong way but some how I have a feeling this has alot more to do with it being a guy who would theoretically be playing Jonas' position rather than signing a young FA...... it wasn't that long ago (last off season I believe), you recommended the team going after Shane Battier. You are for the team keeping Jose (in most circumstances)... yet doesn't this go against the same philosophy above? I'm all for Jonas playing when he gets here... but this team shouldn't be handing anyone anything atleast not when they have reasonable alternatives. They've done that too much already and each time it ended badly.

                  I'm all for this team getting an opportunity to draft a franchise player.... but you don't pass up free pussy on your way to the whore house

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                  • #39
                    GarbageTime wrote: View Post
                    If you HAVE to take risks, why have you been so anti-bargnani since his draft... have the Raptors ever had anyone with a higher potential ceiling besides Vince Carter? Sure now its clear we know what he is (in)capable of, but you always maintained your dislike for his game since he was drafted. In his first couple years did you ever say he needs 30 minutes to see if he can improve to reach his ceiling? Now though the team has to be risky?
                    I never felt his ceiling was nearly as high as some did. He's never once shown the defensive or rebounding potential to be the player some felt he would. Never. I didn't want the Raptors to draft him because I figured he'd become exactly the player he has. A good offensive player who brings literally nothing else to the table. Unlike some, I look at potential as ALL AROUND potential, not just whether or not someone can score.

                    GarbageTime wrote: View Post
                    And its not about just about taking risks, its about the level of risk vs. the opportunities (like you said before the best odds which shouldn't be confused with the highest odds).

                    And I'm sorry, Indiana wasn't a contender since Kobe was drafted? They are a team rebuilding that just made the playoffs (by being the best of the worst) but it was still since Kobe was drafted that they had and lost a franchise player, due to injury (and the team in general due to the rumble in the palace).
                    Indiana wasn't a contender when Larry Bird was in charge. However much Bird was an excellent coach, he's been far too safe as a GM. Donnie Walsh has been a risk taker, which is why he gambled so much on turning the team around last summer with free agency. And it's why he traded a productive veteran big man, in Dale Davis, for a young, unproven big man with upside, in Jermaine O'Neal. Sometimes the gambles backfire, like trading Antonio Davis for Jonathan Bender. But those are the risks.

                    GarbageTime wrote: View Post
                    and I'm not adamant that they go after a FA now. It was one alternative dependent on the time frame and availability. Never a do or die situation. I also never said to overpay them... I clearly stated if it was relative to the terms of the deal. I just don't see that as short sighted.. I see that, as we both stated earlier, as hedging your bets. While hedging your bets MAY not give a reward as big as 'going all in' (so to speak), it will cover your ass from tremendous failures.
                    The majority of the time you sign an in-demand free agent, you overpay him. That's why players love free agency so much. And the only reason players sign extensions instead of simply becoming free agents is the risk if they get injured. DeAndre Jordan is a very athletic, 23 year old rebounding and shotblocking 7 footer with, from what I gather, a decent head on his shoulders. You really don't think you'll have to overpay him to get him? Portland just extended Greg Oden for $8 million despite the fact that he's made of glass. Andrew Bynum can't stay healthy yet the Lakers paid him $10 based solely potential.

                    And the fact is that it's such an incredibly difficult thing to win a Championship in the NBA. You can't hedge your bets and expect to do so. You HAVE go all in.

                    GarbageTime wrote: View Post
                    Don't take this the wrong way but some how I have a feeling this has alot more to do with it being a guy who would theoretically be playing Jonas' position rather than signing a young FA...... it wasn't that long ago (last off season I believe), you recommended the team going after Shane Battier. You are for the team keeping Jose (in most circumstances)... yet doesn't this go against the same philosophy above? I'm all for Jonas playing when he gets here... but this team shouldn't be handing anyone anything atleast not when they have reasonable alternatives. They've done that too much already and each time it ended badly.

                    I'm all for this team getting an opportunity to draft a franchise player.... but you don't pass up free pussy on your way to the whore house
                    I don't think it's a good idea to go after a young center because of Valanciunas. Yes. But I also don't think it's a good idea to spend a lot of money on a free agent when you've just won 22 games and have as little real talent as the Raptors.

                    And no, it certainly was not me wanting Shane Battier last summer. I'm a big Battier fan, but I was talking about rebuilding if Bosh left, and I have consistently argued against getting Battier during rebuilding, in part because I think sticking him on a rebuilding team is a waste of his talents, but also because he's simply too old and would take playing time away from the younger players.

                    I'm for keeping Calderon for a couple of reasons. The first is because he's already on the team. They don't have to spend money to keep him (he's only got two years left on his contract). More importantly, though, I think he's worth more to the team than what he would get back in a deal. I've never been opposed to trading him if the Raptors would get something of value back (I've already said on somewhere I'd trade him for a first round pick), but I don't want to trade him for the sake of trading him.

                    Oh, and spending $8-12 million on a free agent you don't really need is not free pussy. It's like picking up a girl on your way to your girlfriend's house. Sure, there's a chance that she could be end up being great, but most likely it's just a waste of time and might do more harm than good.
                    Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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                    • #40
                      Tim W. wrote: View Post
                      Oh, and spending $8-12 million on a free agent you don't really need is not free pussy. It's like picking up a girl on your way to your girlfriend's house. Sure, there's a chance that she could be end up being great, but most likely it's just a waste of time and might do more harm than good.
                      Okay now that quote jeopardised my job a little bit because I laughed too much.Anyway I wouldn't sign Gasol or Jordan at the moment.
                      My plan would be of course to determine what the heck is going on with the lockout first - because no GM should make major plans before that is cleared. But for the topic - my first concern would be what can I get for Bargnani - if I can get a top pick,or even just something not horrible I would go for it.Signing Shane Battier doesn't make much sense for the Raptors and also for him.I don't see us going into the playoffs this season - so what would Shane actually do on the Raptors - play a losing season,taking time from guys that really need it - like James Johnson. So...no Shane for my plans.
                      I would stick with our Pgs for now unless we get something good for Calderon - I share Tim W.'s opinion for Calderon - he is more valuable to our team for now than what we might get in return.Of course we don't know what offers B-Co got for him but since he wasn't traded I don't think there were really some great deals.
                      Let our guys develop together this season - there isn't much we can loose - if we get some great deal - okay yes (don't pass up the free pussy ) that way we get clear idea of Ed,Derozan's development ,how Kleiza recovers,will Amir continue to grow as a player so much,is Alabi good enough for the NBA and is James Johnson capable of being an actual NBA starter. When all that is cleared we can then sign some free agent depending on the results from the past season.And start development of Jonas and our draft pick.

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                      • #41
                        I've noticed you don't expect much from the upcoming season. You all are discussing players, coaches and other conditions. I'm going to be Mr Obvious and maybe little off topic now but state my thoughts anyway.
                        It's not only up to the players but it's also up to the fans, I saw a tendency that during NBA games fans react heavily mainly to dunks and blocks , they seem to try maintaining their dignity. Of course, NBA system has significant number of games and its hard to cheer like crazy in all of those games( unless it's playoffs), but this cheering make players ten times more motivated. If they are well supported at home they will be even more competitive playing in States when they will know that they have amazing fans waiting for a win back at home. Especially young players, that's a big burst of motivation and self confidence for them.
                        JV is not an exception, I still think he was so solid during EuroBasket and EuroLeague because of his willingness to win the games for the fans, not for his own needs. Of course, Canada is not an basketball nation it's nearly a mission impossible(correct me if I'm wrong) to bring all people in home arena chanting together, but with the arena like that the effect would be massive.
                        Even the Bargnani was trying to defend when he played for his national team at EuroBasket, he seemed to play the defensive part of the game, not to be lazy and the most importantly play for someone else, not himself (Italy fans?). Don't criticize too much and sorry for mistakes, English is not my native language.
                        Last edited by RandomGuy; Tue Sep 20, 2011, 09:56 AM.
                        Official Pope of the Raptors sponsored by MLSE.

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                        • #42
                          Sorry a ton longer than I planned... I won't be offended if you skip to the end.

                          I didn't want the Raptors to draft him because I figured he'd become exactly the player he has
                          So this now becomes a matter of your own personal evaluation of player rather than the concept of HAVING to take a risk itself. The point here was you didn't think Bargnani was worth the risk (Which you were always right on) vs the need to take risks. Some risks aren't worth it when there are other choices available.

                          With Jonas you see him as worth the risk (which is fine), but then proceed to call my idea short sighted because I forsee a number of possible variables that could easly come to fruition and want to hedge against them. Hoping for the best, but planning for this worst, is to me, as far from short sighted as it comes.

                          Indiana wasn't a contender when Larry Bird was in charge
                          Sorry just getting a bit confused now... Kobe wasn't drafted while Larry Bird was in charge. And since the time Kobe was drafted the Pacers made the EC finals a couple times and the NBA finals. We'll have to agree to disagree about the team being a contender since Bird started running the team 2003 (?). I remember the Pacers being one of the favorites (with Detroit and Miami) going into the season of the brawl.

                          But I think Kobe's draft year and Pacers are both great examples of some of my points, unpredictability of (relatively) random events. First, one doesn't know how picks will always turn out let alone where the best player will be drafted. Kobe was drafted 13th that year, Peja 14th, Steve Nash 15th, Jermaine O'neal 17th... 7-12 were Lorenzen Wright, Kerry Kittle, Samaki Walker, Eric Dampier, Todd Fuller and Potapenko. The Raps could be in any one of those situations with their picks next year (or the year after)... a top pick thats good (Iverson, Camby, Shareef, Ray Allen), a mid pick thats bad, a late pick thats great (or the opposite of all those).... how do you 'plan' for that? You can't. Even if the Raps try and be terrible, theirs no guarantees they'll end up in a spot that gets them that guy they want/need, let alone that guy turns out as hoped.

                          Or even to take that further... what if the best player available (with the most upside) turns out to be a C or PF at the Raps pick? Do they avoid them then to, even though said player has the most upside, because that would further log jam the big man spots? Do you then go for best fit or 2nd most upside instead?

                          To get to Indiana, here was a team that was regularily considered a contender (with Reggie), made the playoffs for almost a decade straight, made some good moves became a contender again (in my eyes) and then got hit with a completely unforseeable event (the brawl) and an injury to their franchise player (O'neal)... which left them in their 'cycle of mediocrity' which they had to take time to get out of. And even last year... I don't think Bird was going for it (so to speak), but was rather the best of the worst, which could happen to any team.

                          The majority of the time you sign an in-demand free agent, you overpay him
                          that may very well be true... . but you need to seperate yourself from this idea that said player will be overpayed. Again, I said it is completely relative to the cost and duration of the contract. What that is exactly I don't know. But never once did I say "overpay to get that C". Nor did I recommend a long contract. Nor did I claim they would be the long term starting C.

                          Its a matter of, if possible, getting a quality starting C at a fair price who will hold down the position until Jonas proves he is capable of taking it. If he can then great, if he can't then you still have a (hopefully) good C to work with. Yes there would be competition at that spot (and all big man positions) but if Jonas (or anyone else) can't handle that, gets disgruntled, cries about it, whatever, I don't want him here anyways then. And its better to find that out earlier rather than later.

                          And if that young C is not available at a good price... then you keep going with things as they are.


                          Now that I've said alot more than I ever planned to and since you purified my perfectly dirty ananlogy... what this gets back to is not giving up good opportunities along the way to your goal and being flexible with your plans. It also doesn't mean that it won't let you reach your goal. (hence the free pussy on the way to the whore house analogy).

                          I just simply don't see how getting a quality and hopefully productive player (at any position for that matter) at a good price is short sighted or will put the team in a cycle of mediocrity. I don't see how the team is better off taking a (theoretically) riskier path is more worthwhile than having alternatives should things not go as planned. I don't want to see the team do anything they can just to make the playoffs, but I also don't want to see the team plan to tank until a perfect storm arises. I want to see some balance between the two.... to me having good young players, with good contracts gives the team tons of room to grow, with a lot of good assets along the way. It may be harder to end up with that #1 pick in a good draft, but atleast you've hedged that with a quality player.

                          A team of:
                          Derozan, JJ, Amir, Ed, Jonas, Gasol or Jordan, Bayless (and Jose), Alabi, Kleiza will have cap space (from bargnani trade if possible, barbossa trade (or contract ending this season), with Jose's ending the year after), draft pick(s) where ever that may be, and any other possible assets (from bargnani/barbossa trades). That team may not be complete... but that looks very promising to me with alot of youth, alot of potential, alot of productive players, and a lot of versatility going forward.

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                          • #43
                            Where did Kobe come in to this?

                            Kobe was drafted by Charlotte (who are now New Orleans) and traded to LAL.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              RandomGuy wrote: View Post
                              I've noticed you don't expect much from the upcoming season. You all are discussing players, coaches and other conditions. I'm going to be Mr Obvious and maybe little off topic now but state my thoughts anyway.
                              It's not only up to the players but it's also up to the fans, I saw a tendency that during NBA games fans react heavily mainly to dunks and blocks , they seem to try maintaining their dignity. Of course, NBA system has significant number of games and its hard to cheer like crazy in all of those games( unless it's playoffs), but this cheering make players ten times more motivated. If they are well supported at home they will be even more competitive playing in States when they will know that they have amazing fans waiting for a win back at home. Especially young players, that's a big burst of motivation and self confidence for them.
                              JV is not an exception, I still think he was so solid during EuroBasket and EuroLeague because of his willingness to win the games for the fans, not for his own needs. Of course, Canada is not an basketball nation it's nearly a mission impossible(correct me if I'm wrong) to bring all people in home arena chanting together, but with the arena like that the effect would be massive.
                              Even the Bargnani was trying to defend when he played for his national team at EuroBasket, he seemed to play the defensive part of the game, not to be lazy and the most importantly play for someone else, not himself (Italy fans?). Don't criticize too much and sorry for mistakes, English is not my native language.
                              I think vocal fan support is important, but they need talent to cheer for, and, quite frankly, the Raptors don't have a whole lot of it at the moment, and without Valanciunas this year, they probably aren't going to get an upgrade in that department. Get some talent on the floor and I think you'll get good crowds. Toronto is hungry for a winner.
                              Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
                              Follow me on Twitter.

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                              • #45
                                Matt52 wrote: View Post
                                Where did Kobe come in to this?

                                Kobe was drafted by Charlotte (who are now New Orleans) and traded to LAL.
                                I assumed Tim was referring to the opportunity to draft Kobe (Indiana had the 10th pick that year)... and that while their pick was a safe pick (Dampier) they could have selected someone with more upside. Since then Indiana has been up and down, while Kobe has been a top player in the history of the NBA.

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