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Paul George gets MAX ... is he the next Rudy?

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  • #16
    Craig wrote: View Post
    I understand your angle, however, thats looking at it from a position of not knowing the relationship there. George might be a great team guy, good person, plays by the rules as it pertains to media, public appearances and community service. Indiana management might simply like him, appreciate he wants to be there, and were simply happy to reward him.

    It isn't always an adversarial negotiation. George is worth good money, and if he's a great dude for the organization, the benefit of giving him a bit more might just be that, a reward.
    Unfortunately paying people a "good guy" bonus is a terrible way to run a successful franchise.

    joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    Right, but I'm sure this was exactly the same mindset that Atlanta had when they signed Joe Johnson to Max, and Memphis with Rudy Gay. While I can appreciate and understand the desire to not lose a player for nothing, I believe the risk to be just as great going the other way, where you're stuck with a player, on the hook for everything.
    I agree there's a huge risk there, and that analysis is one of the things that separates good GM's from bad ones IMO.

    Brandon wrote:
    George isn't nearly as productive as the Lebronniac. Why are they getting the same salary?

    I thought about doing a post about how the CBA is screwing over teams that don't have the very best players. Here's the logic.

    George is a lot less productive than the Lebronniac, so to compete with Miami (or whatever team it is), Indiana has to get George a lot more help than the Lebronniac needs. Say for example, George needs 3 all-stars around him to compete on a level playing field with Lebron's team (3 all-stars Lebron's team can't adequately counter). But the problem is the CBA makes it just as possible for Lebron's team to bring in those 3 all-stars. Lebron's team can bring in as much help, or perhaps more help.

    If there were no restrictions on salary, no cap, no max deals, no luxury tax, then Lebron would be paid a lot more than George (Lebron's Marginal Revenue Product shows us that), so much that his team would be restricted by natural market forces in what it could do to make the team much better. Lebron would also be restricted in his choices by market forces. How many teams could afford him? My guess is, the Lakers, the Knicks, the Nets, and that's all. His salary would be at least 3 times what it's allowed to be in the current system. How many other players could his team afford to bring in? Certainly George's team could afford a lot more help. Maybe Indiana couldn't afford George, but what if teams were allowed to sell players like European soccer leagues do? Under the Current CBA only $3 million in cash can be traded in an entire season by any team. Maybe George would be sold for some astronomical sum to a team that is in direct competition with Lebron's team. And that would be a kind of market-based (as opposed to legislated) wealth redistribution.

    Now, all of this is part of the post-19th century idea that non-economists have that markets don't work, freedom doesn't work, and we need legislation to repair freedom's faults. So, to make sure that the teams that don't have the very best players can compete with the teams that do, the NBA has legislated a system heavy on rules and regulations. As a result, the team with the best player has been to 3 straight finals and won the past 2 championships.

    For more on how most untrained people are to the left of Marx on basic economics, see Bryan Caplan's book "The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies". In that book, Caplan argues that politicians are just giving people what they want in terms of economics policy. Perhaps North American sports leagues are giving people what they want as well, in trying to legislate competitiveness and parity. It doesn't work, but people think it does, so it has a social benefit, even if it does the opposite of what it was designed to do.
    A few points I'd like to make about you post.

    Bold #1: Agreed, in this model it may be as easy as Lebron to get other all-stars on his team than Paul.

    Bold #2: Removing all luxury tax/salary cap/other restrictions doesn't limit Lebron's choices. In fact, it gives him more choices. He can sign with any team, they don't have to worry about whether they allowed to sign him (due to restrictions) they only worry about whether they are willing to pay him the amount he wants. You assume (and perhaps I'm projecting incorrectly) that the number one concern for Lebron is money in the bank from an NBA salary. I would argue that although it is entirely possible that overall money in the bank is Lebron's overall goal, winning championships might be more important than money received in basketball salary, for two reasons. First, a pay cut in salary that would allow him to win a championship, might could actually net him more money in the long run because of an increase in value of his "brand". Second, even if taking a pay cut in his basketball salary means he is going to make less overall in the course of his career/life. It is also entirely possible (even from an economic "homo econimus"/rational man, perspective that he values winning a championship over the money. In this sense winning a championship comes at a cost of x amount of dollars in salary left on the table, a cost that he is entirely willing to pay. BUT let's say that he goes where the money is, in a completely free market NBA (which does not and cannot exist because you and I can't just start up an NBA team [even if we had unlimited funds]) it is no less likely that Lebron ends up with 3 other superstars than our current model. Pokorhov basically just gave the finger to the salary tax restrictions (something that I personally don't think will be something he does for more than 3-5 years, and something no other owner we'll ever do again). I failed to see where your argument of a completely "free" market in the NBA benefitted small market teams. Unless it somehow involved even more radical changes that happen in soccer, if that's the case you should expand on HOW changing to a free market and adopting soccer policies will result in making small market teams more successful, because I am completely missing something.

    Fourth bold: I think this is a very simplistic sentence. There are a LOT of economists including ADAM SMITH who pointed out ways that markets, left to their own devices would not work. ALSO there are plenty of instances of gov'ts using the rhetoric of "free markets" to reinforce a power hierarchy that runs contrary to an actual free market. For example, "The North"'s double standard of calling for free trade and the removal of subsidies in "The South", but then HEAVILY subsidizing their own local agriculture. I'm not saying that they are right or wrong for doing it, because the conflation of economics and politics is extremely complex, just that people often call for "free markets" when the result is good for them, but against "free markets" when it is bad for them. The idea that actively choosing to not have a free market is a choice that only a non-economist could make is inaccurate.

    To me the way you increase the ability of a small market team's ability to compete (from an economic perspective) is to remove caps on players salaries BUT inserting a HARD CAP. This forces teams to make hard decisions... is it better have 1 lebron and 4 steve novak's or the raptors current starting five? Small market teams would lose the ability to gain the transcendant star in their prime, but would have an advantage in being able to afford more borderline/perennial all-star types.

    From what I've read, the result of this would be a huge gap of haves or have nots. Salary cap on players essentially works out as a subsidy for the Landry Fields of the league. Even if owners were all for a completely free market, or a free market with a hard cap, in reality, the players union would have to be on board and that is tough sledding.

    Regardless of the system, players are always going to have the option to accept less money to increase their chances of getting a ring, and although we see this almost exclusive with aging veterans, there is nothing stopping a super-duper star/generational talent to take less money order for his team to have a better chance to win it all. I believe Lebron and Bosh took pay cuts to get into Miami, and there's nothing a free market can do about that, and very little a regulation market can do about it as well.

    Lasty, using Lebron as an example of how the current model doesn't work, may be accurate, and still misguided. Lebron is a once in a lifetime generational talent, an arguable and legitimate contender for GOAT. In terms of basket-ball players he is the outlier of outliers, and I would argue that the philosophy of utility would suggest that designing a model of compensation surrounding the vast majority of players as opposed to the once very 10-20 year generational talents is the more prudent approach. I'm not saying the model we have is that model, but the idea that Lebron is evidence of why the whole salary compensation structure should be thrown out the window, is not best rational.

    However, I am interested in hearing more expansion on your ideas of how to change NBA salaries to make small market teams more competitive.
    Last edited by ezz_bee; Thu Sep 26, 2013, 08:24 AM.
    "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

    "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    • #17
      Brandon wrote:
      Alright, so let me take a crack at this. [/url]
      Thanks I appreciate it. I did a little bit of digging myself, and there is something to be said about regulations & parity, and a good case can be made that regulations reduce parity. That said, it is difficult to compare parity across leagues due to some of the unique features of each league. But yes, the argument has merit.

      Brandon wrote:
      I'd like to point out that the single greatest factor in any team's longterm success is a good owner/management team. This overrides all other considerations by an order of magnitude at least.
      Agree, agree, one thousand times agree!
      "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

      "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

      "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

      Comment


      • #18
        Matt52 wrote: View Post
        I don't think he is the next Rudy Gay based on his current production.

        After just 3 years in the league he has shown to be much more efficient and versatile than Rudy.

        I'm not sure if he is worth MAX money but I'd rather pay him max than Rudy because he brings much more to the table.

        Plus he has just 3 years under his belt and is only 23. With Rudy - eyes or no eyes - I think you know what you are getting. There is a ceiling with George that has not yet been reached.
        Versatile I'll give you. Better playmaker and also better defensively, can be used to guard 3 or sometimes 4 positions at a very high level.

        But efficiency? This is where some people just lose me with Paul George. Paul George had a TS% of 53 last year and averaged just 17.4 points per game on 14.9 shots.

        Rudy Gay had a TS% of 53% in his 3rd season on 15.4 shots, 55% in his 2nd season on 16.3 shots and 54% in his 4th season on 14.6 shots. I'm really not sure how George is more efficient than Gay was in the same stage of his career. If we're talking about him NOT being the next Rudy, efficiency definitely isn't the argument to use to prove that.

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        • #19
          BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
          Apparently he did take a paycut (compared to the full Rose max), but they also gave him a player option. Yuck. I wonder how big is the paycut.

          Mark Montieth ‏@MarkMontieth 4h

          @TimDonahue8p9s @PacersScribe He said he got a max deal, but not the "ultimate" number he could have gotten.


          Mark Montieth ‏@MarkMontieth 4h

          Fifth year of Paul George deal is a player option, so he can leave after four if he wants. "I doubt that will be the case," he said.
          I don't think George could have gotten the 'Rose Max'

          To be eligible, the player must be voted to start in two All-Star Games, or be named to an All-NBA Team twice (at any level), or be named MVP.
          unless Allstar + All NBA team count, but I don't think they do.

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          • #20
            Craiger wrote: View Post
            I don't think George could have gotten the 'Rose Max'



            unless Allstar + All NBA team count, but I don't think they do.
            It's conditional on him making All NBA next season.

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