If Lowry walk (which he won't) which of these best available PG packages who you choose?

[2kfeen]

No, Lowry is only part of the puzzle
He gets our team into the 3rd-4th seed area in the East, and he gets us on the free agent map
He's part of the culture change transition to winning
He's not a max player, because he doesn't have that impact stats wise

But without Lowry and maybe Vasquez, we are in no-mans land: 7-9th seed
aka worst position to be in
So we gotta get picks, make sure our pick is good and stockpile young players.
this way, we can retool our roster on the fly so we can get a good star

[JawsGT]

I'll try and break my thought process down.

The true cost of any move is the opportunity cost - or the next best alternative which is forsaken. So therefore, the cost of continuing to build on this core, is the ability to rebuild with new, high draft picks in the next few years.

The smart way to determine which path is more viable is to determine the odds of winning with each strategy - building and re-building (which, very obviously, is up for debate).

So the team has 4 paths which may be taken with regards to building, each of which provide different odds:

a. with Lowry on a reasonable contract
b. with Lowry on a max contract
c. without Lowry and without a suitable replacement
d. without Lowry but with a suitable replacement

In my opinion, options b and c provide worse odds at sustained success than a rebuild.

But on the other hand, options a and d, provide better odds.

So if we have to choose between options b, c or a rebuild, I go rebuild.

Now who constitutes a suitable replacement? I'd have to say Lawson if we don't give up too many assets, Bledsoe on a max, or Reggie Jackson without giving up too many assets.

If Lowry were to leave, I still do not see any reason that he has to be replaced this offseason, assuming neither Vasquez or De Colo are suitable replacements. Other opportunities will present themselves in the future, no need to make drastic decisions this offseason (like blowing the team up) based on a single's players presence/absence. JV, Ross, and maybe even Demar and Patterson could still improve in Lowry's absence, and although the team may not be better next season, it may be better off in the long run due to those players improvements, coupled with a good PG added to the roster at a later date.

I still don't get it. Success doesn't have to progress in a one to one relationship with time.

[JawsGT]

I think I have more faith in the roster than most here, with or without Lowry.

[stooley]

If Lowry were to leave, I still do not see any reason that he has to be replaced this offseason, assuming neither Vasquez or De Colo are suitable replacements. Other opportunities will present themselves in the future, no need to make drastic decisions this offseason (like blowing the team up) based on a single's players presence/absence. JV, Ross, and maybe even Demar and Patterson could still improve in Lowry's absence, and although the team may not be better next season, it may be better off in the long run due to those players improvements, coupled with a good PG added to the roster at a later date.

I still don't get it. Success doesn't have to progress in a one to one relationship with time.

To be fair, I have somewhat reconsidered. I think adding Ennis could actually improve our future prospects. He's young, good (probably) and would come a lot cheaper than Lowry, which would allow us to be players in the FA market (Ennis and Hayward could be a nice addition compared to whatever other 20th pick and Lowry).

The thing with this core though is that current success is pretty integral to long term success as well. If we are to add any significant FAs, I think it has to be before JV and TRoss's rookie contracts expire in 2016.

And to do that, I think we need to maintain our momentum.

[JawsGT]

To be fair, I have somewhat reconsidered. I think adding Ennis could actually improve our future prospects. He's young, good (probably) and would come a lot cheaper than Lowry, which would allow us to be players in the FA market.

The thing with this core though is that current success is pretty integral to long term success as well. If we are to add any significant FAs, I think it has to be before JV and TRoss's rookie contracts expire in 2016.

And to do that, I think we need to maintain our momentum.

That's a very good point, and you could be right. It would certainly be more convenient if another great player were added before those guys required extensions.

[BobLoblaw]

I was gonna say second rounders instead of non-lottery, but I thought the probabilities would be too low. Not that it matters, because all that really matters is that talent is available everywhere in the draft in one can somehow make the right pick. If we are gonna base team building simply on probabilities than we are already fucked.

I don't understand you. Yes, all stars do get drafted late in the draft occasionally. And yes, it would be odd to rely on such a long shot possibility. That was my point.

[JawsGT]

I don't understand you. Yes, all stars do get drafted late in the draft occasionally. And yes, it would be odd to rely on such a long shot possibility. That was my point.

lol, honestly I'm confused now. I was just pointing out that Lowry caliber players are available outside of the lottery, as Lowry himself was drafted #24 or something. But thats obvious anyways. And yes, the later in the draft you pick the less likely one is to draft a Lowry caliber player. And no, I wouldn't rely on it either. So I guess we agree.

But, if Lowry leaves there are opportunities to draft guys with upside at his position that can replace him. Whether they realize their potential or how quickly they could do so, well, only time will tell and your guess is as good as mine. There are good PG's in this draft, so I don't think the Raps need to panic if Lowry leaves, especially if Vasquez and De Colo are retained.

[Primer]

lol, honestly I'm confused now. I was just pointing out that Lowry caliber players are available outside of the lottery, as Lowry himself was drafted #24 or something. But thats obvious anyways. And yes, the later in the draft you pick the less likely one is to draft a Lowry caliber player. And no, I wouldn't rely on it either. So I guess we agree.

But, if Lowry leaves there are opportunities to draft guys with upside at his position that can replace him. Whether they realize their potential or how quickly they could do so, well, only time will tell and your guess is as good as mine. There are good PG's in this draft, so I don't think the Raps need to panic if Lowry leaves, especially if Vasquez and De Colo are retained.

JawsGT nailed it with the bold. This draft is one of the most stacked drafts at PG in recent history. I expect all of the PG's that go in the 1st round to become competent NBA starters. Ennis would be a top 10 pick any other year, but there are simply so many good PG's in this draft that he will likely drop. The fact we should have 2 competent veteran PG's on the squad already in Vasquez and de Colo, plus a promising rookie PG, makes losing Lowry not the end of the world.

Now, if Lowry was a free agent before last season, then I would be in full on panic mode, as our backup was the 3-headed beast of Stone-Buycks-Augustin.

[DanH]

Competency at PG will not keep this team afloat. Lowry was the primary driver of success for this team. Take him out and replace him with a rookie and Vasquez, and maybe you hit .500, if you are lucky.

[ceez]

everyones talking about ennis and payton but if they aren't there when we draft at #20 a guy like Semaj Christon has a lot of potential to develop into a solid starter and you could get him at #37

[DanH]

everyones talking about ennis and payton but if they aren't there when we draft at #20 a guy like Semaj Christon has a lot of potential to develop into a solid starter and you could get him at #37

Think so? Seems like a career backup at best. Not a great passer, only a decent shooter, draws fouls a lot but doesn't convert very well, decent defensively but not great size. Might be interested at 59, but there are several guys I'd rather have even there, let alone at 37.

[ceez]

Think so? Seems like a career backup at best. Not a great passer, only a decent shooter, draws fouls a lot but doesn't convert very well, decent defensively but not great size. Might be interested at 59, but there are several guys I'd rather have even there, let alone at 37.

yeah i like him quite a bit. he's got pretty decent size at 6'3 with 6'7 arms and he's really athletic. he definitely needs to work on his shooting but he's does some pretty interesting things from a playmaking standpoint. good slasher. has the tools to be a good defender.

i mean if you can get him at 59 that'd be fantastic but who knows

[ceez]

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...Christon-7026/

apparently he's grown a bit since this

edit: i have no idea how to embed a draftexpress video

[BobLoblaw]

lol, honestly I'm confused now. I was just pointing out that Lowry caliber players are available outside of the lottery, as Lowry himself was drafted #24 or something. But thats obvious anyways. And yes, the later in the draft you pick the less likely one is to draft a Lowry caliber player. And no, I wouldn't rely on it either. So I guess we agree.

But, if Lowry leaves there are opportunities to draft guys with upside at his position that can replace him. Whether they realize their potential or how quickly they could do so, well, only time will tell and your guess is as good as mine. There are good PG's in this draft, so I don't think the Raps need to panic if Lowry leaves, especially if Vasquez and De Colo are retained.

Depends on what you mean by panic. The post I was replying to said that Ennis or such is likely to be as good as Lowry by his second year. Delirium.

The Raptors will draft some prospect either way next week, but they can't build their whole plan around such expectations. It seems far more reasonable to think that the rookie will never reach that level, and if he does, it will take many years.

I think it's delirious to think "Lowry left? Oh no problem, we drafted Elfrid Payton who has never played an NBA game, he will be like Lowry in no time and we'll keep building a contender." If Lowry leaves, the plan will have to be re-thought. Tanking is one option, but maybe it's not necessary, maybe they can sign a major free agent PG like Bledsoe or Dragic this year or next year.
And if Payton or Ennis or whatever other prospect develops, well, that's great. Maybe that changes these plans. But for now that's not a plan, that's a long shot hope.

[psrs1]

The biggest concern I have re KL is injury.