DeMar DeRozan vs. Rip Hamilton

[Xixak]

Xixak neither Calgary nor I were bashing DeMar. We were just looking at how when Rip was in Washington he was ranked pretty badly. Then when he was traded to a team that fit his style of play he thrived.

Rip was the top scorer of those teams but no one would have him ranked higher than Sheed, or Chauncy, or the 'Fro... That said maybe DeMar on the current Raps is more like Rip in Washington and maybe the front office needs to decide whether they want to structure a team into those Pistons (a team where DeMar's skills fit more), OR move him so that he can thrive elsewhere.

Neither one of us were disregarding the guy-- more so kind of curious about DeMar's fit on the Raptors as constructed. It MIGHT be easier, for instance, to move DeMar and find a SG who fits the starting lineup better than trading Lowry and finding a starting PG that better matches DeMar's style of play... Comparing Rip and DeMar in a vacuum without looking at the work the front office needs to make for him to thrive seems a bit short sighted IMO.

I didn't say anyone was bashing DeMar.

[mcHAPPY]

Ugh, it's stale on both sides,,,,,,,, and in general, one side is no more guilty of ignoring/discounting the other side, as the other.

Agreed.

But if you look through this particular thread you have people who question DeRozan's place on the Raptors having to continously explain their position (or have others do it for them) based upon false assumptions and/or dismissed previous points.

But definitely agree overall (i.e. outside this thread) your point.

[Axel]

Rip made 16 threes that year on 42 attempts.

I could isolate 16 made threes for DeRozan from last year's game log and say he went 16-26 on those for 62%.

Or I could say he made 17 of his last 51 threes (more attempts and makes than Rip) for 33%.

Sample size is a bit too small. I think it's more realistic to look at Rip's percentages for his first 5 years, and see that he shot a little under 30% so he was by no means a good three point shooter. And DeMar becoming a good three point shooter wasn't the point of this thread, I was just saying that it's clearly a possibility.

The main point was to compare Rip, a player who was very useful on a championship caliber team, using up the same % of the team's cap as DeMar, to DD.

If you look at Demar's game-log stats, and query search for "shooting streaks" of 3PT% of .33 or higher, last season he shot the ball at least that well for 3-game streaks (twice) and 2 games (once). The last 3 games, he made 9 of 12, which is well beyond anything he has or will do in his career. His other 3-game stretch was 5 for 9, and 2 for 5 in his two game stretch. Not exactly lighting it up even in short stretches. (about 10% of his games could he be considered "hot" from outside).

Now you mention that Rip is a smaller sample, absolutely true. But in terms of a quality basketball player, would you rather have a player who can shoot but doesn't as often or a player that can't shoot yet lets it fly? If you look at Demar's per36 shot attempts and his 3PT%, he falls somewhere between Josh McRoberts and Chris Bosh in terms of 3 point ability.

[thead]

SO many questions are going to be answered by January

[blackjitsu]

I didn't say anyone was bashing DeMar.

No worries, message boards are not the best place to understand nuance/intent of statements. My bad for the misunderstanding.

I like Captain Crunch and 3 years old or not it is likely still good

Mmmm...Cap'n Crunch...

[Xixak]

If you look at Demar's game-log stats, and query search for "shooting streaks" of 3PT% of .33 or higher, last season he shot the ball at least that well for 3-game streaks (twice) and 2 games (once). The last 3 games, he made 9 of 12, which is well beyond anything he has or will do in his career. His other 3-game stretch was 5 for 9, and 2 for 5 in his two game stretch. Not exactly lighting it up even in short stretches. (about 10% of his games could he be considered "hot" from outside).

Now you mention that Rip is a smaller sample, absolutely true. But in terms of a quality basketball player, would you rather have a player who can shoot but doesn't as often or a player that can't shoot yet lets it fly? If you look at Demar's per36 shot attempts and his 3PT%, he falls somewhere between Josh McRoberts and Chris Bosh in terms of 3 point ability.

I'm just questioning whether 16 3s made in 82 games is really a big enough sample size to say a guy is a good shooter. 4 more misses (out of the 42 shots) would have him under 30%, while 4 more makes would have him approaching 50%.

Especially when you take into account that Rip's combined percentage through his first 5 seasons is under 30%, it's pretty unrealistic to suggest that he was a good three point shooter before his 45.8% percent season (and 37%+ for the rest of his career).

[golden]

To get back to the original question. the flaw may lie in the question itself. Whenever we try to compare player A to player B based on a similar history and try to extrapolate results, we are chasing fool's gold (copyright Matt, 2013). When you pick a comparison player who went on to have atypical results, you are choosing an outlier, not a mean. Fine to do but it's not indicative of much. To put any weight behind this, there would also have to be player C, D, E etc. who followed a similar career arc to this point. My gut feeling is that those players went on to have career 3pt% below 30%...but we don't know because we don't care about them. It's great that lightning struck for Rip....it may strike again for DeMar, just don't count on it.

+1. That was my point with the Ricky Davis comparison. Look at this list and you can pick out lots of guys who had a similar single season stats to Demar (e.g. Gerald Wilkins, Byron Scott, Ron Mercer, Nick Young, Jerry Stackhouse, etc..., etc...). There are a lot of guys I never heard of, so it's pretty much what Jclaw said....

http://bkref.com/tiny/on8no

That said, +100 to Xixak, for getting some interesting discussion going when absolutely every possible off-season topic has been exhausted.

[Axel]

I'm just questioning whether 16 3s made in 82 games is really a big enough sample size to say a guy is a good shooter. 4 more misses (out of the 42 shots) would have him under 30%, while 4 more makes would have him approaching 50%.

Especially when you take into account that Rip's combined percentage through his first 5 seasons is under 30%, it's pretty unrealistic to suggest that he was a good three point shooter before his 45.8% percent season (and 37%+ for the rest of his career).

I agree that it isn't a great sample, but consider it this way. Rip went 16 for 42 that season, a sample quite comparable to Demar's sophomore season when he attempted 52 3PT shots. So Rip's 16 for 42 was good for 38.1%, while Demar, in a similar sample size, hit only 5 of his 52, good for 9.6%.

The fact is, regardless of the quantity of shots taken, Demar has so far proven to be a poor shooter from 3PT range, and that is unlikely to trend upwards like Rip did, because Rip at least demonstrated he could hit the shots in a small sample size.

[Xixak]

I agree that it isn't a great sample, but consider it this way. Rip went 16 for 42 that season, a sample quite comparable to Demar's sophomore season when he attempted 52 3PT shots. So Rip's 16 for 42 was good for 38.1%, while Demar, in a similar sample size, hit only 5 of his 52, good for 9.6%.

The fact is, regardless of the quantity of shots taken, Demar has so far proven to be a poor shooter from 3PT range, and that is unlikely to trend upwards like Rip did, because Rip at least demonstrated he could hit the shots in a small sample size.

That doesn't really make sense though because of how small the sample size is.

500+ shots are more indicative of his shooting ability than 42.

I really don't like this notion of "demonstrated he could hit the shots in a small sample size". I could just as easily say that DeMar demonstrated he could hit the three last season when he went 9 for 18 in the last month of the season.

[Axel]

That doesn't really make sense though because of how small the sample size is.

500+ shots are more indicative of his shooting ability than 42.

I really don't like this notion of "demonstrated he could hit the shots in a small sample size". I could just as easily say that DeMar demonstrated he could hit the three last season when he went 9 for 18 in the last month of the season.

But Demar hasn't demonstrate that he can hit consistently in any sample size. 9.6% on 52 shots is significantly worse than 38% on 42 shots.

As for 500+ shots, Demar has attempted 280 in his 4 year career, so you'll have to wait until year 7 or 8 to determine if he is a good 3Pt shooter, but the reality is, you can't wait 7 years to find out if you have a good player or not. Front Offices have to make that decision using smaller sample sizes because otherwise you end up with Andrea Bargnani on your team.

If we take Demar's 280 shot attempts over 4 years, he is still only a 23.9% 3Pt shooter. Rip went 116 for 384 in his first 4 years, good for 30.2%. Even though 30% isn't fantastic, it's a stretch to say that Demar can achieve similar stats as Rip moving forward. Even if Demar was to progress at the same rate of Rip, he still wouldn't become a good 3PT shooter, because 24% is pretty awful.

Another thing to consider, if you look at Rip's first 6 seasons, when he attempted less than 100 3PT attempts per season, he hit over 30%. When he attempted more, he shot less than 30%. Demar shot 120 3's last year and shot a poor (yet career high) 28.3%. Perhaps the Demar needs to learn when to shoot and that Rip's basketball IQ was higher. Demar is the superior athlete by far, but Rip seems to be the smarter player in terms of shot selection even when just looking at his early career numbers. That is to be expected when you draft an upperclassmen vs a freshman, but it doesn't change the reality.

Demar's greatest asset is still the mid-range game and his free throw %. His finishing at the hoop vs looking for foul calls has been long discussed in other threads, but until Demar becomes a consistent threat to actually finish, his excellent FT% is diminished. That leaves the mid-range 2, which is the least efficient shot in basketball.

I think Demar can be a valuable contributor, but as this roster stands, his one dimensional game is still more of a liability than an asset.

[Xixak]

Alright not continuing this discussion. Any bit of optimism about DeMar is just dismissed around here, same deal on RealGM. I'm not even sure how this thread simplified to a discussion about his 3 point shooting. I guess that was done to take away from the fact that he is statistically very similar to a highly regarded, former NBA champion SG in his championship season.

His 3pt shot was just something I mentioned at the end of the comparison. Rip was able to improve from a sub 30 shooter to near 40% for the remainder of his career including a 46% season. Not unrealistic to assume DeMar could make an improvement as well. Probably not to 45%, but why not 35% or so?

If you look historically, it's pretty hard to find players (post 2000) that were very effective mid-range shooters, who didn't at least develop a passable three point shot at some point in their careers. The only one I can think of off hand is Wade, but maybe that's just selective thinking on my part trying to make DeMar look better as usual.

[Axel]

Alright not continuing this discussion. Any bit of optimism about DeMar is just dismissed around here, same deal on RealGM. I'm not even sure how this thread simplified to a discussion about his 3 point shooting. I guess that was done to take away from the fact that he is statistically very similar to a highly regarded, former NBA champion SG in his championship season.

His 3pt shot was just something I mentioned at the end of the comparison. Rip was able to improve from a sub 30 shooter to near 40% for the remainder of his career including a 46% season. Not unrealistic to assume DeMar could make an improvement as well. Probably not to 45%, but why not 35% or so?

If you look historically, it's pretty hard to find players (post 2000) that were very effective mid-range shooters, who didn't at least develop a passable three point shot at some point in their careers. The only one I can think of off hand is Wade, but maybe that's just selective thinking on my part trying to make DeMar look better as usual.

haha, does that mean I win?!

Optimism is good to have, but so is realism. You are providing stats to prove your point of view, and I am provided counter stats. You have said to many replies (on many threads) that you want someone to bring stats/facts to back up their disagreement with your point. So I have. Isn't that the point of a forum, for us to share and discuss? Perhaps what you really want is your own column where you can provide your opinions without any comments?

The only thing Rip and Demar have in common is their mid-range game, and I'm not talking about stats here, I'm talking about as players. To extrapolate Demar's career because of this one similarity (and no, average size for his position doesn't count as a similarity) is too far of a stretch to me (and others). Demar is a super athletic winger who works hard, yet hasn't developed any NBA level skills beyond mid-range shooting, free throw shooting and dunks. Rip was never the athlete that Demar is (not even close) but was a highly skilled and intelligent player. With Demar's athleticism, he should be aiming for more than Rip, but he clearly doesn't have the skills to match Rip. We should be more worried that he'll end up like JR Rider than expect him to end up like Rip.

[mcHAPPY]

We should be more worried that he'll end up like JR Rider than expect him to end up like Rip.

minus the cra cra

[Xixak]

haha, does that mean I win?!

Optimism is good to have, but so is realism. You are providing stats to prove your point of view, and I am provided counter stats. You have said to many replies (on many threads) that you want someone to bring stats/facts to back up their disagreement with your point. So I have. Isn't that the point of a forum, for us to share and discuss? Perhaps what you really want is your own column where you can provide your opinions without any comments?

The only thing Rip and Demar have in common is their mid-range game, and I'm not talking about stats here, I'm talking about as players. To extrapolate Demar's career because of this one similarity (and no, average size for his position doesn't count as a similarity) is too far of a stretch to me (and others). Demar is a super athletic winger who works hard, yet hasn't developed any NBA level skills beyond mid-range shooting, free throw shooting and dunks. Rip was never the athlete that Demar is (not even close) but was a highly skilled and intelligent player. With Demar's athleticism, he should be aiming for more than Rip, but he clearly doesn't have the skills to match Rip. We should be more worried that he'll end up like JR Rider than expect him to end up like Rip.

I don't think I extrapolated DeMar's career. All I did was compare two seasons. The Pistons were able to win a championship with a 2 guard producing at about the same volume and efficiency as DeRozan. Rip also used up the same % of the salary cap.

The point of this wasn't so much to project DeMar's career and say he's going to be a 37% 3PT shooter for his career in the future. The point was to show to everyone who says we can't win with DeRozan on this team, that that's not actually true at all. You don't always need to have a 3+D shooting guard. Sometimes it's actually more effective for you to have a 2 who can produce at a high rate from mid-range and also get to the free throw line. The number of players who can do that nowadays are few and far between.

Isaiah Rider is a pretty bad comparison considering he only ever had 2 seasons where he shot less than 35% from 3 (32 and 31%). Not sure why you brought him up...

[Axel]

DeMar DeRozan is eerily similar to Rip Hamilton on the Detroit Pistons championship team... like twins.

AGE: DeMar - 24, Rip - 25
HEIGHT: DeMar - 6'7, Rip - 6'6
SALARY: DeMar - 9.5M (16.2% of 58M Cap), Rip - 6.5M (15.1% of 43M Cap)

Yadda yadda yadda <- to shorten the post, no offence intended.

Also the season I was looking at for Rip here was his 5th season in the league compared to DeMar's 4th. At that point, as I showed earlier in the stats, he was still a bad three point shooter (18 made on 68 attempts for 26.5%). People will try and argue this by pointing to two earlier seasons in his career where he shot 36.4 and 38.1% from three, but these were also on small sample sizes (28 and 16 makes respectively). I think the fact that he shot 27.4% on 146 attempts in his 2nd season, and 26.9% on 119 attempts in his 4th are better indicators of how good he was at shooting from distance (he also shot 29% from 3 through his first 5 seasons).

Despite this, he was able to shoot 37.5% from three through his last 8 seasons in the league, including a year where he shot 45.8% on 120 attempts. So I'm really not sure why DeMar wouldn't be able to improve his 3-ball as well.

This is why the conversation has largely steered towards 3PT shooting. And isn't that bolded statement an attempt to extrapolate Demar's career trajectory?

I don't think I extrapolated DeMar's career. All I did was compare two seasons. The Pistons were able to win a championship with a 2 guard producing at about the same volume and efficiency as DeRozan. Rip also used up the same % of the salary cap.

The point of this wasn't so much to project DeMar's career and say he's going to be a 37% 3PT shooter for his career in the future. The point was to show to everyone who says we can't win with DeRozan on this team, that that's not actually true at all. You don't always need to have a 3+D shooting guard. Sometimes it's actually more effective for you to have a 2 who can produce at a high rate from mid-range and also get to the free throw line. The number of players who can do that nowadays are few and far between.

Isaiah Rider is a pretty bad comparison considering he only ever had 2 seasons where he shot less than 35% from 3 (32 and 31%). Not sure why you brought him up...

JR Rider - 6'5 217 SG - drafted 5th overall
Demar - 6'7 220 SG - drafted 9th overall

Both guys drafted as athletic 2 guards with high upside.

Both excelled at getting to the rim early in their careers, 4.0 vs 4.2 FTA per 36 mins in their rookie season, and were good FT shooters hitting 81.2% and 81.1% respectively.

Both have career averages of around 32 Mins per game over their careers, both averaged about 35 mins per game in their 2nd season.

Averaged Total Rebounds per 36 at 4.7 and 4.8 in their rookie season.

Both averaged around the same number of FGA per game (14, 16, 16 and 14, 14, 15) early in their careers (Years 1-3 and years 2-4).

Both have career usage % of around 25% (Demar is 23%, Rider is 26%).

Yet, JR Rider was a better passer 2.85 assist per game in years 1-4, vs 1.8 for Demar. JR Rider was a better 3PT shooter, posting 36% in his rookie season (on 150 shots) and finished as a 35.2% 3PT shooter.

So tell me, why can Demar follow Rip Hamilton's career but not JR Rider's?