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  • Kuh wrote: View Post
    I would become a fan of Bargnani's if he did three things:
    1. Pulled down 9+ rebounds per game.
    2. Made over half his shots.
    3. Played solid help defense (e.g., gave out 2 hard fouls each game on people penetrating to the basket - but 3+ blocks per game would also count).

    There is no need to interpret or excuse. He does those things consistently (on average) I am a fan. If he doesn't, I'm not.

    Take his 36 point performance against Latvia. That came on 11/25 shooting. He missed 14 shots! I am tired of Bargnani missing baskets and wasting offensive opportunities. And that's not even talking defense.
    If Bargnani pulled down 9+ rebounds, made over half his shots, and played solid help defense he'd be a perennial all-star and maybe even an MVP candidate :P Bargnani is going to be the player he is now, for his entire career. Either the Raptors try to make the most of him (scoring big off bench, special mismatch sub) or he gets traded OR he keeps on playing 36 minutes night in night out making fans go crazy with a 1/10 spectacular to horrid game ratio.

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    • Tim W. wrote: View Post
      I'm not sure how the numbers work against me. Johnson and Davis defended Lopez nearly a third of the possessions you listed, despite being undersized.
      You literally said:

      Tim W. wrote:
      Bargnani barely defended Lopez at all. It was almost exclusively Amir and Davis, so much so that even I thought Bargnani should defend him more, since he was the only one with the size to match up.
      When the stats say Bargnani defended on the most possessions, even though that's without a minute count, one can be pretty sure that's not barely or almost exclusively. Agreed?

      Tim W. wrote: View Post
      Besides, I really have no idea how they work out possessions. I mean, there were A LOT more offensive possessions than 28 in 2 games when Lopez was on the floor. Are they only counting the possessions when Lopez took a shot? Or simply had the ball? Just because Lopez doesn't get the ball doesn't mean that he was being defended by someone. How many minutes did each player defend Lopez? I'm guessing Bargnani got, at most, a third of the minutes and probably less.
      Possession count is when the play ends the possession, thus either a shot, a turnover or a foul (with or without freethrows). The minute count would be interesting, but it's pretty obivious that when someone defends on most possessions that won't be in 3 minutes. I'm not on vacation now, so I'm not going to do a minute count, but you are welcome to do so.

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      • Kuh wrote: View Post
        Take his 36 point performance against Latvia. That came on 11/25 shooting. He missed 14 shots! I am tired of Bargnani missing baskets and wasting offensive opportunities. And that's not even talking defense.
        Wow, really? Again, I'm not a Bargnani fan (better say it every time) but he wasn't only 11/25, he also shot 15 (!), yes 15!! freethrows, making 12. He added 3 turnovers, so a rough calculation tells us that he had at least 1.09 points per possession. Now who in the NBA averages this? I think no-one, but for you it is not enough. Efficiency isn't just your shooting percentage otherwise someone like Jason Kidd, who shoots just a pinch over 40% for his career (and thus several seasons below 40%) would be in big big trouble.

        Poor poor Bargnani if he gets called out for a performance like this.

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        • Kuh wrote: View Post
          I would become a fan of Bargnani's if he did three things:
          1. Pulled down 9+ rebounds per game.
          2. Made over half his shots.
          3. Played solid help defense (e.g., gave out 2 hard fouls each game on people penetrating to the basket - but 3+ blocks per game would also count).

          There is no need to interpret or excuse. He does those things consistently (on average) I am a fan. If he doesn't, I'm not.

          Take his 36 point performance against Latvia. That came on 11/25 shooting. He missed 14 shots! I am tired of Bargnani missing baskets and wasting offensive opportunities. And that's not even talking defense.
          Geez, people say I'M tough on Bargnani. People often ask me what numbers I'd be happy with Bargnani putting up, but that question seems to miss the point entirely. It's not about numbers.

          Bargnani is never going to pull down 9+ rebounds a game, but neither are the majority of big men in the league. There are plenty of good big men that didn't pull down 9+ rebounds per 36 minutes, last season, including Bosh, Millsap, Amare, Aldridge, Marc Gasol and Dirk. Instead of demanding something unattainable, and really not necessary, I simply demand that he puts in an effort on the boards and works harder to prevent opposing players from grabbing boards.

          And while Bargnani doesn't make half his shots, that's because he's a perimeter player. That's not going to change and it shouldn't because that's where his strength lies. Dirk has only shot more than 50% from the field twice in 13 years. Bosh has only done it twice in 8 years. Bargnani has a unique talent and skill, and in order to shoot more than 50% from the field he'd have to shoot more close to the basket, which pretty much negates the offensive advantage he has. I don't see the point in that.

          I do agree that Bargnani has to play solid help defense, but again, you're bringing up numbers that are pretty arbitrary. 2 hard fouls are great, but you don't need to give hard fouls to play solid help defense. And Bargnani doesn't have the personality to start punishing people physically. He's not an enforcer or intimidator and asking him to be one is a little ridiculous. His role will never be as a stopper and lots of good big men in the league play good, solid help defense without laying people out. And the 3 bpg would put him among the league leaders. So you'd only be happy if he was among the league leaders in blocks? And blocks don't necessarily equal good defense. JaVale McGee is a poor defender, but a great shotblocker. On the other hand, neither Nene or Al Horford are great shotblockers, but are excellent defenders.

          I'm as hard on Bargnani as anyone, but I'm not asking him to become a different player, which is what you seem to want. What I'd want from him is simply to improve on his weaknesses so he's not a liability half the time he's on the floor. I don't think even that's going to happen, since we have seen so little improvement in those areas in five years, but it sounds like you're saying that Bargnani would have to become an elite player in the league in order for you to like him. And I don't think that's fair. I'm simply asking him to have a positive impact on the court.
          Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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          • Soft Euro wrote: View Post
            When the stats say Bargnani defended on the most possessions, even though that's without a minute count, one can be pretty sure that's not barely or almost exclusively. Agreed?
            I overstated a little, but I am also pretty sure that Bargnani defended Lopez for fewer minutes than both Amir and Davis. I don't have any statistical proof of that, but it was THE thing I focused on for most of the game because I didn't even think it was a good idea for Amir and Davis to be defending Lopez and felt that Bargnani should have defended him more (because he matches up better size-wise).

            Soft Euro wrote: View Post
            Possession count is when the play ends the possession, thus either a shot, a turnover or a foul (with or without freethrows). The minute count would be interesting, but it's pretty obivious that when someone defends on most possessions that won't be in 3 minutes. I'm not on vacation now, so I'm not going to do a minute count, but you are welcome to do so.
            I'm certainly not going to do a minute count, but I don't believe for a minute that in 2 full games that there were only 29 offensive possessions for Lopez. Doesn't that seem a little odd to you?
            Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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            • Tim W. wrote: View Post
              I'm certainly not going to do a minute count, but I don't believe for a minute that in 2 full games that there were only 29 offensive possessions for Lopez. Doesn't that seem a little odd to you?
              Actually, in those two games there were 53 Offensive possessions in which the play ended with Lopez taking a shot, taking Free Throws or Turning it Over.

              But again ... I'm not sure what 2 games will prove ... if anything.


              If this whooole thing basically comes down to Tim saying "I remember thinking about it" and us saying "I remember him guarding him", then I officially concede. These debates rarely ever finish cleanly.

              I stick with my point that Bargnani was not purposely moved onto weaker players.
              The weaker player just so happened to be his man. Fin.

              Comment


              • Tim W. wrote: View Post
                I overstated a little, but I am also pretty sure that Bargnani defended Lopez for fewer minutes than both Amir and Davis. I don't have any statistical proof of that, but it was THE thing I focused on for most of the game because I didn't even think it was a good idea for Amir and Davis to be defending Lopez and felt that Bargnani should have defended him more (because he matches up better size-wise).

                I'm certainly not going to do a minute count, but I don't believe for a minute that in 2 full games that there were only 29 offensive possessions for Lopez. Doesn't that seem a little odd to you?
                Well, I think you overstated a lot, but lets not get into semantics. You are right about the 29, so I did another quick recount and looked a bit better at the games. We probably miss about 15 possessions (rough guess). There were some transition plays, and a lot of those don't get ascribed to a single player (for obvious reasons). Secondly, there were a couple of plays with screens where total mismatched happened, one possession I just viewed had Bayless defending Lopez. Not a hooray moment as he could just as well not be there. But I also made a miscount. I totally missed all the possessions against Bargnani in the first of the two games, and that were only 3 possessions!

                In the first game in London, we started the first quarter with Johnson on Bargnani and I think it's this game (and not the second) that lead you to the opinion that Lopez was defended mostly by Johnson and Davis, because he obviously was in that game. As you also alluded to, this did not work very well as Johnson does not match up well with Lopez. Lopez started out with something like 5/5 in the first quarter of the first game. For the second game, Triano made an adjustment and put Bargnani on Lopez in the first quarter. (Of course there were plays were we were in a zone defense, with sometimes Bargnani as the middle man, sometimes on a wing, when matchups were more circumstantial).

                I think a lot of this theory (Bargnani defending the weaker big) is based on games like the first game in London, but the second game (when these games are used as evidence for the theory) shows this was not a constant.

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                • joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                  Actually, in those two games there were 53 Offensive possessions in which the play ended with Lopez taking a shot, taking Free Throws or Turning it Over.
                  Is there somewhere you can look up these stats? Tell me please.

                  Comment


                  • Tim W. wrote: View Post
                    Geez, people say I'M tough on Bargnani. People often ask me what numbers I'd be happy with Bargnani putting up, but that question seems to miss the point entirely. It's not about numbers.

                    Bargnani is never going to pull down 9+ rebounds a game, but neither are the majority of big men in the league. There are plenty of good big men that didn't pull down 9+ rebounds per 36 minutes, last season, including Bosh, Millsap, Amare, Aldridge, Marc Gasol and Dirk. Instead of demanding something unattainable, and really not necessary, I simply demand that he puts in an effort on the boards and works harder to prevent opposing players from grabbing boards.

                    And while Bargnani doesn't make half his shots, that's because he's a perimeter player. That's not going to change and it shouldn't because that's where his strength lies. Dirk has only shot more than 50% from the field twice in 13 years. Bosh has only done it twice in 8 years. Bargnani has a unique talent and skill, and in order to shoot more than 50% from the field he'd have to shoot more close to the basket, which pretty much negates the offensive advantage he has. I don't see the point in that.

                    I do agree that Bargnani has to play solid help defense, but again, you're bringing up numbers that are pretty arbitrary. 2 hard fouls are great, but you don't need to give hard fouls to play solid help defense. And Bargnani doesn't have the personality to start punishing people physically. He's not an enforcer or intimidator and asking him to be one is a little ridiculous. His role will never be as a stopper and lots of good big men in the league play good, solid help defense without laying people out. And the 3 bpg would put him among the league leaders. So you'd only be happy if he was among the league leaders in blocks? And blocks don't necessarily equal good defense. JaVale McGee is a poor defender, but a great shotblocker. On the other hand, neither Nene or Al Horford are great shotblockers, but are excellent defenders.

                    I'm as hard on Bargnani as anyone, but I'm not asking him to become a different player, which is what you seem to want. What I'd want from him is simply to improve on his weaknesses so he's not a liability half the time he's on the floor. I don't think even that's going to happen, since we have seen so little improvement in those areas in five years, but it sounds like you're saying that Bargnani would have to become an elite player in the league in order for you to like him. And I don't think that's fair. I'm simply asking him to have a positive impact on the court.
                    Now this is a post I can (mostly) agree with! I find myself all the time seemingly defending Bargnani simply because I think he is being attacked a lot for bad reasons and with bad argumentation.

                    It's absolutely not about numbers when they are used like this. Numbers can be extremely deceptive. For example, Zach Randolph is a very good rebounder. But a lot of these rebounds he gets by boxing out too much; it happens quite often that he should provide help defense, but stays with his man (keeps on boxing out while allowing someone a good opportunity to score) so he can get the rebound if there is a miss. This is detrimental to his team, but helps his rebounding total immensly. Also, with Randolph on the team 'stealing' rebounds, it's not that weird that Gasol only got 7 rebounds a game last season (he still should get more though if you look at his playoff stats).

                    Looking more at the way Bargnani plays: I would, for instance, rightly or wrongly, like Bargnani to attempt a little less threes when i purely look at him as an individual. He attempted 3.4 threes a game last season. But with the lack of threepoint shooting in the starting lineup and the need to spread the floor, would it be really better for the team if he attempts less threes? Of course, shooting threes lowers his percentage (by about 2 percentage points).
                    Last edited by Soft Euro; Wed Sep 7, 2011, 03:11 PM.

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                    • Soft Euro wrote: View Post
                      Is there somewhere you can look up these stats? Tell me please.
                      I just went to Lopez' Game Logs for those two games.

                      Counted up all FGA + FTA/2 + TO.

                      No way to figure out who guarded him on which plays though. Unfortunately.

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                      • joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                        I just went to Lopez' Game Logs for those two games.

                        Counted up all FGA + FTA/2 + TO.

                        No way to figure out who guarded him on which plays though. Unfortunately.
                        Ah, But FTA/2 doesn't really work for precise calculation as there were 'and 1' plays. I get to a high 40's (and if we are even one count wrong here we are totally screwed!) I can look at individual plays in Synergy, but I have to look at each player to see who they defended, I cannot look at the attacker and count who defended him, unfortunately it's listed only one way. So to get a more precise count, I'd have to look at every play and list them, and that's a lot of work (certainly considering how few people are convinced by research the last time I did something like that...) while I still cannot see who Synergy had as a defender that play.

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                        • joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                          Actually, in those two games there were 53 Offensive possessions in which the play ended with Lopez taking a shot, taking Free Throws or Turning it Over.

                          But again ... I'm not sure what 2 games will prove ... if anything.


                          If this whooole thing basically comes down to Tim saying "I remember thinking about it" and us saying "I remember him guarding him", then I officially concede. These debates rarely ever finish cleanly.

                          I stick with my point that Bargnani was not purposely moved onto weaker players.
                          The weaker player just so happened to be his man. Fin.
                          It doesn't PROVE anything, but it's an example of Bargnani not defending the center when he is the better offensive player. It's evidence. And considering that both Amir and Davis were physically overmatched by the much larger Lopez, why wouldn't Bargnani defend Lopez almost exclusively?

                          And we haven't got to the Orlando game, where Joey Dorsey started (and was defending Howard) because he was the only other player who had the size (width) to defend Howard. Bargnani did defend Howard in that game, but not nearly as much as he should have, considering his position and the lack of real size in the Raptor frontcourt.
                          Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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                          • Tim W. wrote: View Post
                            And we haven't got to the Orlando game, where Joey Dorsey started (and was defending Howard) because he was the only other player who had the size (width) to defend Howard. Bargnani did defend Howard in that game, but not nearly as much as he should have, considering his position and the lack of real size in the Raptor frontcourt.
                            You mean that game the day before Bargnani defended Lebron for large parts of the game?

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                            • Soft Euro wrote: View Post
                              Well, I think you overstated a lot, but lets not get into semantics. You are right about the 29, so I did another quick recount and looked a bit better at the games. We probably miss about 15 possessions (rough guess). There were some transition plays, and a lot of those don't get ascribed to a single player (for obvious reasons). Secondly, there were a couple of plays with screens where total mismatched happened, one possession I just viewed had Bayless defending Lopez. Not a hooray moment as he could just as well not be there. But I also made a miscount. I totally missed all the possessions against Bargnani in the first of the two games, and that were only 3 possessions!

                              In the first game in London, we started the first quarter with Johnson on Bargnani and I think it's this game (and not the second) that lead you to the opinion that Lopez was defended mostly by Johnson and Davis, because he obviously was in that game. As you also alluded to, this did not work very well as Johnson does not match up well with Lopez. Lopez started out with something like 5/5 in the first quarter of the first game. For the second game, Triano made an adjustment and put Bargnani on Lopez in the first quarter. (Of course there were plays were we were in a zone defense, with sometimes Bargnani as the middle man, sometimes on a wing, when matchups were more circumstantial).

                              I think a lot of this theory (Bargnani defending the weaker big) is based on games like the first game in London, but the second game (when these games are used as evidence for the theory) shows this was not a constant.
                              I don't think I overstated a lot. And your numbers simply don't make sense. In the first game alone, New Jersey took 81 shots and had 11 turnovers. You take away the 7 shots due to offensive rebounds, and that means that they had 85 offensive possessions over the course of the game. Lopez played just over 3/4 of the game, so it's fair to say that he was probably on the floor for more than 50 New Jersey possessions. You've got him on the floor for 44 possessions over 2 games, the second of which went to triple overtime. I'm sorry, but your numbers don't make sense.

                              I do agree that Bargnani defended Lopez more in the second game, but he had to because neither Amir and Davis were big enough to stop him in the first one. Triano did attempt to have Bargnani defend the weaker player, and he did a lot of the time, but it was clear even to me that they didn't have anyone other than Bargnani with the size to defend Lopez.
                              Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
                              Follow me on Twitter.

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                              • Tim W. wrote: View Post
                                I don't think I overstated a lot. And your numbers simply don't make sense. In the first game alone, New Jersey took 81 shots and had 11 turnovers. You take away the 7 shots due to offensive rebounds, and that means that they had 85 offensive possessions over the course of the game. Lopez played just over 3/4 of the game, so it's fair to say that he was probably on the floor for more than 50 New Jersey possessions. You've got him on the floor for 44 possessions over 2 games, the second of which went to triple overtime. I'm sorry, but your numbers don't make sense.
                                As I tried to explain, but maybe not good enough, the count is not for total possessions, but the possessions where that player ended the possession. So I do not have Lopez on the floor for only 44 possessions; those are about the number of possessions where the possession ended with him.

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