franchise outlook discussion

[Fully]

I underestimated the impact that Gay's arrival would have on this team in the short term. Beyond the fact that he's the best offensive player the team has had since Bosh, Gay seems to have infused the team with a boost of confidence. I thought that there would be an adjustment period between DD, Gay and some other players but the chemistry has been solid right off the bat. They are still a flawed team but the game's have taken on a different feel in the short time that Gay has been there. The game winners and clutch shots have made those who shouted for a "closer" so loudly look pretty smart.

The Raptors and Gay may be experiencing something of a honeymoon effect too though. Gay feels liberated from leaving Memphis and the Raptors organization are beyond thrilled with their new shiny toy. Lowry is also feeling like a brand new man. Right now, everything is great. Things may not stay this way when the team is navigating through adversity over the course of a long season however. Gay's also come as advertised with regards to his volume shooting and low efficiency offense. DeRozan is a very similar player. Traditionally, this has not been a successful model for building a winning team, despite their short term success. All in all though, over the course of a full season I'd predict them to finish somewhere between 7-9 in the East.

The Raptors real problems are when you start asking how they get over that next hump. They are pushed to the luxury tax threshold, so improving through free agency is not an option. They've traded away this summer's lottery pick, and next season's selection would likely be between 12 and 19. The chances of finding a guy that can take you to the next level with that one single pick are very, very slim.

So the Raptors only real way to keep improving is via trade. The players that the Raptors would most like to move - Fields, Kleiza and Bargnani - are coincidentally enough, the ones with very low value. You can pretty much rule Kleiza out with the latest report that his career is in jeopardy with knee issues. If the small chance that someone wants him for salary relief next summer becomes a reality, they sure aren't giving up a rotation player to get him. Fields could salvage some of his value, but not before he spends the summer re-learning how to shoot and starting off next season with a bang. Even if he does turn it around, he's not going to return you a real impact player. He'd likely have more value on the Raptors roster in that case.

Colangelo has maintained for more than a month now that there is a market for Bargnani and we heard various rumours leading up to the deadline (Bulls, Sixers, Warriors, Bobcats). How many of them were based in truth however, we'll never know. The most telling piece of evidence is that Bargnani is still on the roster making $11 million plus and with a role that is shakier with each passing day. Needless to say I still have serious doubts on whether Colangelo is even willing to give up on Bargnani let alone getting a starting calibre player back in return for him.

I can't see how Bargnani/Fields is going to land Gasol this summer. Surely the Lakers will have better offers than that, especially with Gasol being an expiring deal. Plus there's a non 0% chance that he stays in Los Angeles next year, especially if Howard lands somewhere else.

DeRozan becomes the team's best trade piece assuming Lowry/Gay/AJ/JV/Ross aren't being shopped. I'm not sure what the market for DD would be. The consensus when he signed his extension was that it was too much for him, so the question is how far he's gone this season in justifying it. There have been stretches where he's been worth every cent this season and stretches where it has looked like a mistake. If the Raptors want to add one more significant piece to this roster - and everyone seems to agree that it should be a starting PF - then it will likely come at the expense of DeRozan. Of course, that creates a void at the SG spot, and you're now relying on T-Ross do chew up 30-35 minutes a night when he's just not ready for it.

This is pretty much the problem I envisioned when they made the Gay deal. It seems great in a vacuum but it makes it so difficult to put together a complete team when you pay those B level guys their max money. You always seem to be "one real good piece" away, but acquiring that piece usually ends up in another hole opening up in the process. You simply don't have enough assets to fill all the holes, and you end up on that dreaded treadmill.

I don't mean to be such a ball of negativity. I warmed to Gay immediately and genuinely enjoy watching the games over the past three weeks more than I have in years. Part of me also feels selfish for not being satisfied with "just the playoffs" since any postseason play at this point would be awesome. However I can't shake the feeling that they get their butts kicked in the first round the next fews seasons and before you know it, you're back at the rebuilding crossroads without a whole lot to show from the last one.

[JordanMariam14]

All of you guys are forgetting that DeMar doesn't get paid 9.5 mil until next season. This season he only gets paid around 3.5 mil which is UNDER-paid for someone who puts up 17.5pts, 4rbds, 2.5asts, and 1 stl.

We all know DeMar is the type of player that improves every single year, and now with Rudy along side DeMar can hopefully go workout/improve with Rudy and help Toronto have one of the best 2-3 punches in the league.

Remember, next season after his improvement in the off season is when you should be asking yourself if he's overpaid or not, not when he's only getting paid 3.5 mil (this season).

[white men can't jump]

I really like Landry and think he would be a good fit as a short-term solution.

Even if we do move Bargnani, what are we going to get in return? Surely no team is going to give up the rugged interior player who can score on the blocks for Bargnani. Any deal for Bargnani wont likely solve our PF problem, which means Amir + what-ever stop gap solution we can find. A cheap option like soon to be waived Hakim Warrick might be realistic but not exactly inspiring. Until we have a first round pick again, we might be stuck with Amir/Bargnani.

Don't know. I agree with you about the PF aspect...it's probably 99% sure that Bargs won't return a PF (interior scoring or not) of good value in a trade. Hence why I would've been ok with "garbage" trades where instead of trying to land a player who's a problem for another team that will hopefully work out (Boozer, Gordon, etc), just get some assorted pieces....For example, going into the summer, things change a bit maybe even with offers that were already out there. Maybe Bryan didn't care for Philly's Hawes package because they wouldn't throw enough extra in....well Philly will have capspace this summer, so maybe instead of taking back things BC doesn't want, Philly could just offer Hawes + cash (becomes a tpe) + 1st rd pick in this year's draft (if Philly doesn't plan on keeping their pick). I would take that....I have no clue how realistic it is and I'm just talking out of my ass...but I'd take it.

*not even sure if Philly would have the space...they should have enough expiring deals with Bynum needing a new contract, but logistics of the offseason with capholds and crap like that always confuse me

[slaw]

They desperately need another elite player. I don't have the answer as to how that can happen but without another top shelf guy they are not going anywhere other first round playoffs. Maybe.

I continute to hold to my view that this franchise's outlook is bleak as long as Colangelo is here but there isn't any sense belabouring the point cause he doesn't appear to be going anywhere, so, hopefully, he'll make us doubters look like fools.

[hateslosing]

I am looking to see what happens with four players. Demar, Fields, Ross and JV.

Demar has improved every year he's been on the team. I see no reason he won't improve again for next season. I believe he studies his own tape, so he is quite conscious of his weak points. Next year, improved ball handling, increased strength and better court vision will lead to improved assists and fewer turnovers.

Fields will be working with the team coaches and trainers on his shot. I think it is killing him now that he can't shoot well. He plays so hard when he is out there that I suspect we will see a significant improvement next year. It's the only part of his game that needs to improve. This year he is shooting 44%, but he is pretty much only taking layups, so his scoring is way down.

Ross needs to stop being a rookie. He seems humble and good natured. I have no idea how hard he will work in the off-season, but if he puts in the time and spends time with the assistant coaches I expect improvement in his shot selection and accuracy next season. A subset of all of this is Casey needs an offensive minded Assistant who can come up with better use of players. I believe Ross would do better with better offensive schemes being run.

Jv, I don't have to say much. Get stronger. And send little private notes to the rest of the team. "When I am in the paint, waving my hands, you can pass to me and I can hit the shot." He is not being used well yet by Casey. See above reference to offensive minded assistant coach.

I agree with this 100%. I think the importance of Fields getting his shot back can't be overstated, right now he is our best wing rebounder and is one of the best defenders on the team. He is also signed for a significant chunk of change for 2 seasons after this one. If he starts shooting well, especially from 3, he will add depth that we are missing right now.

Ross is an unknown, he could go either way. If he focuses on improving his jumper and developing a move to get to the rim, I think he'll become a reasonnably good offensive piece fairly quickly. If he doesn't, he is going to flame out.

Demar is hugely underrated by this fanbase and he's still getting better. He needs to work on shot selection, but even some of the long two's he shoots are within his game now.

I think the biggest thing that will effect our franchises future is how Rudy Gay plays. He's played well for us and has added that crunch time scorer we were desperate for. When he wants to, his defense is very good and he has the size to be effective at the 4 in spurts. He has two big flaws that keep him from beinh among the very elite: he takes bad shots and gets tunnel vision. I think if you get him passing a bit more and tightening his shot selection and he will elevate this team in the same way other great threes around the league have elevated theirs. He has all the athletic talent, physical gifts, and skills that Lebron, Durant, and Melo have, he just need to use them like those guys do.

[DoNDaDDa]

DeMar isnt a legit piece???? how so? Lowry, DeRozan Gay and JV are probably the core moving forward pretty much untradeable Lowry and Gay are pretty much a package deal now (pretty much family) one will see it as betryal and want out if one is traded away.

I have no idea where Fields fits into the future hes making too much money for a guy that doesnt have much offensive tools.

its not so much that demar isnt a legit piece(even though i lumped him into that cat.)its that we need a shooter who is consistant & plays lockdown D from the SG spot.. T.Ross has a chance to be that guy if he works on his game but as of right now isnt playing consistantly,prob. gets better with more minutes but likely 2seasons away from taking over starting SG.. as for Lowry hes been a bust so far if u ask me...he hasnt looked any better then Bayless was for us..i havent exactly enjoyed watching him whine to the refs & act a fool like hes been doing..he even kicked a guy while he was down on the ground & got T'd up.. i wouldnt say Lowry/Gay are a package deal either... rudy wants to win & has watched his buddy Kyle get traded away once already.... if it betters the team im sure Rudy would be fine..

we got a PG who isnt a great passer, a SG who cant shoot, a PF who cant rebound or play d, & a rookie C being asked to play over his head right now..i think wer still a ways away from being a legit contender

id be looking for a PF with post scoring & rebounding...a vet starting Center to bring Val along..maybe someone like Perkins who will likely be done in a couple years..& a Vet SG who shoots the 3 plays good D & is always moving on offense.. & lastly if Lowry dont smarten up & play like we expected him to then we need to look at the PG spot too.. or we can keep this team & be a 1st round knockout LOL

[Balls of Steel]

Any legit Gasol/Bargnani talk will need the Lakers taking on one of Kleiza, Amir, or Fields. I don't see the Raps parting with Amir and I don't see the Lakers wanting Kleiza or Fields...... or Bargnani.

The franchise is up the creek. MLSE should pick up BC's option so as to speed up the franchise transfer to Seattle!

[Axel]

Well, with the trade deadline come and gone, it's hard to figure what BC's plan is for Bargs. Will offers get better in the summer? Is he just banking on Pau? If that falls through, is he willing to take a crap deal (role player(s), cap relief, maybe pick(s)) for Bargs? I don't see how this team can start another season with Bargs at PF. I also agree with you that it's going to be damn near impossible to get a great PF. I think from a trade perspective, I have a very hard time seeing any PFs being made available, apart from the slim chance at Gasol (Bargs would still seem like a good fit next to Howard in D'Antoni's system) or maybe Ersan if following the season Milwaukee decides to blow it up. Millsap, Smith, West, and even Jefferson seem like pipe dreams to me.
My hopefully realistic target who I think might be gettable with the MLE, partly because of other PF/C names available ebing more sought: Carl Landry. His production would be solid combined with Amir's at PF. I think he also has the right motor/energy for the role.

I really like Landry and think he would be a good fit as a short-term solution.

Even if we do move Bargnani, what are we going to get in return? Surely no team is going to give up the rugged interior player who can score on the blocks for Bargnani. Any deal for Bargnani wont likely solve our PF problem, which means Amir + what-ever stop gap solution we can find. A cheap option like soon to be waived Hakim Warrick might be realistic but not exactly inspiring. Until we have a first round pick again, we might be stuck with Amir/Bargnani.

[white men can't jump]

Any legit Gasol/Bargnani talk will need the Lakers taking on one of Kleiza, Amir, or Fields. I don't see the Raps parting with Amir and I don't see the Lakers wanting Kleiza or Fields...... or Bargnani.

Hence my saying very slim chance.....there are some things which MAY (or could easily not) work out in the Raps favor:
-Pau's salary and injuries....hard to send back enough assets. Most teams like guys that they have signed to deals in the Bargs range. The ones that don't....well you saw names up for trade...Humphries, Gordon, Boozer....And doubtful Chicago would do such a thing since they hate the luxury tax. LA certainly wouldn't want Humphries, and doubtful they want Gordon. Maybe in a sign-and-trade in the offseason, but even some options there for direct deals (Atlanta, Utah) seem very unlikely especially given his contract.
-Landry Fields...one of the only coaches in the league who might want him is D'Antoni, who absolutely loved him in NY.
-Style and roster...again, I repeat that as much as Bargs is loathed, I think for any team to take a chance on him they have to be pretty confident in their C defensively. Hence Chicago wanting him (even as a mostly cost cutting move) made sense with Noah at C. He'll also have to be in a system where he's allowed to spot up and react as a scorer off the ball. I think there's little doubt he could regain his offensive form in their system.

Granted, all these things considered, it's still a big ass long shot, at best...but I really have a hard time figuring out potential landing places for Gasol. The only other team I know that wants him is Minny, and they'll also have a hard time putting together a package.

[mcHAPPY]

Any legit Gasol/Bargnani talk will need the Lakers taking on one of Kleiza, Amir, or Fields. I don't see the Raps parting with Amir and I don't see the Lakers wanting Kleiza or Fields...... or Bargnani.

[white men can't jump]

I'm concerned that with our limited options (no cap room, no takers for Bargnani, and possibly no first round draft pick), that next season is going to be the exact same group of guys. I don't know how comfortable I am with Amir being the starting PF into next season, but can't see how they upgrade that. I don't think we have a chance of getting Millsap or any of the other big name PFs people like to dream about, so it is either status quo or a gem find.

Well, with the trade deadline come and gone, it's hard to figure what BC's plan is for Bargs. Will offers get better in the summer? Is he just banking on Pau? If that falls through, is he willing to take a crap deal (role player(s), cap relief, maybe pick(s)) for Bargs? I don't see how this team can start another season with Bargs at PF. I also agree with you that it's going to be damn near impossible to get a great PF. I think from a trade perspective, I have a very hard time seeing any PFs being made available, apart from the slim chance at Gasol (Bargs would still seem like a good fit next to Howard in D'Antoni's system) or maybe Ersan if following the season Milwaukee decides to blow it up. Millsap, Smith, West, and even Jefferson seem like pipe dreams to me.
My hopefully realistic target who I think might be gettable with the MLE, partly because of other PF/C names available ebing more sought: Carl Landry. His production would be solid combined with Amir's at PF. I think he also has the right motor/energy for the role.

[Axel]

I'm concerned that with our limited options (no cap room, no takers for Bargnani, and possibly no first round draft pick), that next season is going to be the exact same group of guys. I don't know how comfortable I am with Amir being the starting PF into next season, but can't see how they upgrade that. I don't think we have a chance of getting Millsap or any of the other big name PFs people like to dream about, so it is either status quo or a gem find.

[white men can't jump]

I am looking to see what happens with four players. Demar, Fields, Ross and JV.

Demar has improved every year he's been on the team. I see no reason he won't improve again for next season. I believe he studies his own tape, so he is quite conscious of his weak points. Next year, improved ball handling, increased strength and better court vision will lead to improved assists and fewer turnovers.

Fields will be working with the team coaches and trainers on his shot. I think it is killing him now that he can't shoot well. He plays so hard when he is out there that I suspect we will see a significant improvement next year. It's the only part of his game that needs to improve. This year he is shooting 44%, but he is pretty much only taking layups, so his scoring is way down.

Ross needs to stop being a rookie. He seems humble and good natured. I have no idea how hard he will work in the off-season, but if he puts in the time and spends time with the assistant coaches I expect improvement in his shot selection and accuracy next season. A subset of all of this is Casey needs an offensive minded Assistant who can come up with better use of players. I believe Ross would do better with better offensive schemes being run.

Jv, I don't have to say much. Get stronger. And send little private notes to the rest of the team. "When I am in the paint, waving my hands, you can pass to me and I can hit the shot." He is not being used well yet by Casey. See above reference to offensive minded assistant coach.

This sums up a lot of my thoughts, though I don't think Fields matters so much for the franchise's outlook. He's a utility player so he'll find a way to be effective no matter what. It's not his fault BC made a dumb strategic move with his contract. The biggest problem with Fields is can you afford to keep him as a 4th wing at that money, and how do you trade him if you can't?

Aside from that, I agree with what you say about the rest of the guys. I see the chance for this team to be more than a 6-8 seed tied almost completely to 2 guys: JV and Lowry.
JV: Just insane amount of potential. I think his impact this year would even have been higher with a coach who cuts him a bit more slack and teammates who actually pass him the ball. I have a hard time seeing him as less than an all-star, and this team really needs to make his development priority #1.
Lowry: Shows flashes of being the kind of PG we need, especially with this team where he can become a pass-first PG who just looks for his shot when it's there or his team needs him to. Way too disappointing defensively, but I think dude needs to work on his body. He's too short to be that big, and he plays all out. That said, when he's on, he's so close to being the PG this team needs. I also think his attitude/personality and JV's are great matches. They could make an excellent leadership tandem for years to come. Lowry needs to have a strong year next year, to make it worth re-signing him (and hopefully not just be a contract year aberration).

This team is not going to do that well as built unless they get a total team effort, and learn to play a smart methodical style of basketball. I would love for them to run and gun, but frankly, I fear this will lead to a disorganized style of play that looks good in the regular season but fails in the playoffs, much like Atlanta. This team needs to be more like Detroit earlier this decade...obviously not as gritty a roster, but in terms of knowing roles, playing with a plan, and controlling the pace of the game with smart play, not athleticism and chaos. So a lot of this will also depend on coaching staff. I do think Casey has the motivation aspect, and the defensive aspect, but not sure about offense yet. We'll see if things even get better finishing out this year, because right now it looks horrible.

[Puffer]

I am looking to see what happens with four players. Demar, Fields, Ross and JV.

Demar has improved every year he's been on the team. I see no reason he won't improve again for next season. I believe he studies his own tape, so he is quite conscious of his weak points. Next year, improved ball handling, increased strength and better court vision will lead to improved assists and fewer turnovers.

Fields will be working with the team coaches and trainers on his shot. I think it is killing him now that he can't shoot well. He plays so hard when he is out there that I suspect we will see a significant improvement next year. It's the only part of his game that needs to improve. This year he is shooting 44%, but he is pretty much only taking layups, so his scoring is way down.

Ross needs to stop being a rookie. He seems humble and good natured. I have no idea how hard he will work in the off-season, but if he puts in the time and spends time with the assistant coaches I expect improvement in his shot selection and accuracy next season. A subset of all of this is Casey needs an offensive minded Assistant who can come up with better use of players. I believe Ross would do better with better offensive schemes being run.

Jv, I don't have to say much. Get stronger. And send little private notes to the rest of the team. "When I am in the paint, waving my hands, you can pass to me and I can hit the shot." He is not being used well yet by Casey. See above reference to offensive minded assistant coach.

[ezz_bee]

I think what we've got is a team that's a lock for the playoffs and not much else

The Good: There's unquestionably more talent on this roster than there has been in a long time.

The Bad: We've got too many iso players and I don't see anyone who can facilitate an offense, nor do we have anyone who can shoot the 3 ball.

If this team wants to challenge for home court in the 1st round these things need to be addressed (imo). How can that happen?

3pt shooting - hopefully will come from Ross, but if he doesn't turn out to be a 3pt shooter than it'll have to come from a trade.
Facilitation - I don't see Lowry being traded and I don't see him magically morphing into a pass first PG, so ball movement is going to have to come from other positions. I don't see anyone currently on the roster who can step up and fill this role so this is also going to have to come from trades.

Basically there are two positions where I see these upgrades being made SG, and PF. SG because I think Lowry's, Derozan's and Gay's games are too similar, and although I don't mind redundancy between a starter and a bench player, the redundancy we currently have with our starters is problematic and Demar is the odd man out (imo).

For PF it's obvious that Bargs is the odd man out, and unless we see him being able to contribute meaningfully from the bench (I don't see it) he has to be moved for something.

If I was the GM I'd be looking to trade Derozan for someone who can do two of these three things shoot threes/pass/defend.

Theoretically, If you could trade Bargs for a PF who was an amazing passer (Pau Gasol?) than you might be able to get away with keeping Derozan. I just don't think there are to many amazing passers available at the PF spot.