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Enough with the Tanking Rationale... This is Not a Video Game

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  • #16
    octothorp wrote: View Post
    I've been shouting this to anyone who will listen, but the best-case scenario is clearly:
    a) making the playoffs, gaining valuable experience and confidence, even if it results in a hasty first-round exit.
    b) going into the draft with their own pick (likely 15th or 16th overall), and a list of guys who they'd like if they drop.
    c) if none of those players fall to them, then they've got some potential trades on the table. These include:
    • Sending the pick to OKC, for the future rights to the Raptors own draft pick. In other words, completing the Lowry trade now. Maybe OKC opts not to do this, in the hopes that Toronto collapses and misses big at some point over the next few years. But if they can find an NBA-ready role-player at 15, it might make sense for them. An nba-ready floor-spacing big-man like Olynyk might make more sense for them, for example, than it would for Toronto.
    • Using the pick as incentive in a Bargnani trade. Would LA flip Gasol for Bargnani + Kleiza + a mid 1st-rounder? Would Toronto do this? What other options are out there for Bargnani when you add a mid first-rounder to the mix?
    • Using the pick to try to facilitate a sign-and-trade. Obviously, there are PFs Toronto likes who will be available in sign-and-trades, but the Raptors lack useful assets to make this happen. A mid first-rounder, even in a weak draft, is a decent asset. A direct trade with Utah is unlikely because they've got a couple mid firsts (their own and the Nets), but we could find another asset to flip to them or help them move up in the draft.

    To me, Chisholm is just trying to make it seem like the a miss is the best-case scenario to manage fan expectations. Guaranteed, if the Raptors actually did make the playoffs, he'd be writing about how great this is for the organization.
    This post has many problems. First is the assertion that clearly the best case scenario is the one you want. If it was "clearly", then there would be no need for this thread or discussion in the first place.

    Your option c) scenario makes no sense what-so-ever. Even if we took the league rules about trading consecutive first rounders out of the equation (which we can't), OKC would have to be stupid to trade a future 'guaranteed lottery pick' for a guaranteed non-lottery pick. The pick OKC has is lottery protected for years to come, and unless they believe that the Raptors are about to become a constant play-off contender for the next 5 years, they would be stupid to trade it. All they have to do is wait for the Raps to fail one year in the next 5, whether it's caused by injury, turmoil, or stupid roster moves, to get a pick that is better than the draft position they'd get in return, in a weak draft year.

    Can't use the pick in a Bargnani trade or a sign-and-trade because of the NBA rules. Jeez, talk about using video game rules to work the system to your favor.

    This post is terribly impossible. At least Chisholm is talking about moves that can happen within the league rules.
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

    Comment


    • #17
      That's the worst. You lurk for years and then on your 3rd post ever, you rant on and on about an article you apparently didn't read at all. Hahahaha..
      your pal,
      ebrian

      Comment


      • #18
        Axel wrote: View Post
        This post has many problems. First is the assertion that clearly the best case scenario is the one you want. If it was "clearly", then there would be no need for this thread or discussion in the first place.

        Your option c) scenario makes no sense what-so-ever. Even if we took the league rules about trading consecutive first rounders out of the equation (which we can't), OKC would have to be stupid to trade a future 'guaranteed lottery pick' for a guaranteed non-lottery pick. The pick OKC has is lottery protected for years to come, and unless they believe that the Raptors are about to become a constant play-off contender for the next 5 years, they would be stupid to trade it. All they have to do is wait for the Raps to fail one year in the next 5, whether it's caused by injury, turmoil, or stupid roster moves, to get a pick that is better than the draft position they'd get in return, in a weak draft year.

        Can't use the pick in a Bargnani trade or a sign-and-trade because of the NBA rules. Jeez, talk about using video game rules to work the system to your favor.

        This post is terribly impossible. At least Chisholm is talking about moves that can happen within the league rules.

        In the trade I proposed we're reacquiring our own future pick in the process of this trade, thus meaning that we aren't trading consecutive first-rounders. It is discussed frequently where teams consider reacquiring rights to future first-rounders in order to trade their current first-rounder, but there's nothing in the CBA that prevents this from happening in the same trade. Even if that were not the case, we could complete any draft-night trade we want by drafting a player on behalf of another team and then immediately trading them to that other team. The restriction is only on trading future picks, so when you trade a player after you draft them, the restriction does not apply.

        The draft pick that OKC owns is not a 'guaranteed lottery pick'. OKC is in a win-now mode, which means they're going to value any asset that they can use now either for themselves or in a trade, rather than an asset that they will see nothing from for as many as four more years. If you were OKC, would you really pass up the highest draft pick you're likely to get in years in the chance that an up-and-coming team gets an awful injury?

        There is no NBA rule that prohibits us from using a draft pick in a sign-and-trade, but we wouldn't be trading the pick, anyway. The sign-and-trade can't actually be completed until the new year officially starts in July, but if the Raptors are confident that they can convince a player to come to Toronto, they can acquire the assets to make this happen on draft night, either drafting a player the team owning the player wants, or moving him for the appropriate assets.

        For further reading, here's Coon's explanation of trading draft picks:
        http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q85
        Last edited by octothorp; Wed Feb 27, 2013, 05:27 PM.

        Comment


        • #19
          p00ka wrote: View Post
          Another thing, I often see the Spurs being cited as draft geniuses, and a "why can't we do like them" attitude. It's all based on myth.
          It's more complicated than that, I think. They didn't luck their way into four championships - both their coach and GM are incredible at their jobs, and they've created a culture and a system that makes players look better when they're there. I'll bet that many of the players they've drafted wouldn't have had as much success if they'd been drafted elsewhere; the Spurs' genius lies not strictly in their ability to suss out talent, but in their ability to develop it, and then put the talent into situations where it can thrive.

          All that said, if Duncan hadn't fallen into their damn laps, they don't win any championships. Which brings me back to the thesis of this thread. Tanking is where it's at! Please, Raptors, tank! Tank away! Anything to get us a better shot at Wiggins!
          "Stop eating your sushi."
          "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
          "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
          - Jack Armstrong

          Comment


          • #20
            I think there is value in getting stomped by Miami. I would welcome a good beating by Miami. You don't think Jordan and company learned anything getting their asses handed to them by Boston in those early years. Playoff experience is nothing but a good thing.

            Comment


            • #21
              jimmie wrote: View Post
              Best case is making the playoffs. This year, next year, and so on. F the draft, and F the lottery pick.

              If the team is in the playoffs, then having a 15-25 pick on the annual is quite acceptable.
              No it isn't. What is the point of "continuing with the plan" knowing you have no chance of winning a championship? that's the only goal.

              Comment


              • #22
                Thank you all for your comments. Yes I did read the article, which was the latest symptom of a long observed disease. The video game analogy was apt, we're talking about real people with emotions, passion and a desire to get better and win, not clones that we can direct at a whim based on ridiculous hypothetical situations like, hey if we lose two more games we'll be a better team in the long run. If it doesn't work out in manager mode you can just simulate the season and acquire more talent. People should hate losing with a passion. Ask Kobe or MJ what they think of losing now to win later. MJ has done a hell of a lot of losing since becoming an owner, where's his OKC facsimile?

                @Lark Benson - Thanks for your non-reply reply; a real paradigm shifter
                @ebrian - Lurking sounds so sinister. I did read the article and I watch nearly every game. Care to add any substance to your critique or is a flippant remark all you can muster? At least I provided a detailed rationale for my stance.

                Losing always sucks no matter how you dice it. I don't care what scenarios you try to come up with. Our window to draft big time talent has closed. To improve we'll have to utilize free agency and trades.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Here's the thing. Your window to draft big time talent never closes. You lose, you tank, you draft that talent if its there. Improving through free agency and trades is exponentially more difficult than accumulating players through the draft, and if you think BC is going to get the job done right, just look at his flimsy history of big swings and big misses. You'll be dead before the Raptors win anything by building through trades.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Fully wrote: View Post
                    Which high draft pick refused to come to Toronto? The only player I can remember "holding out" anywhere was Steve Francis in Vancouver, and that was close to 15 years ago now. I hope that you're not giving up all hope in the lottery process as a way to build your team because of one isolated incident that happened in the 1990's. That's looking for monsters under the bed.

                    If replicating the Spurs draft success was as simple as a franchise saying "We should start doing that too!", then wouldn't every team in the league already be doing it? Besides, the Spurs are a completely different animal than the current version of the Raptors (understatement of the century?). They've been able to target complimentary or "system" players with their draft picks because they've had one of the leagues top 3 or 4 cores for the past decade and a half. That is not a luxury that the Raptors have; they should still be in the process of accumulating as much talent as they possibly can before even defining what their system is.

                    All of your thoughts about how playoff experience and a winning culture can really help a young group like Toronto were acknowledged by him as well. However there are potential drawbacks to making the playoffs and I feel like Chisholm did a good job of hitting on those too. One of the most important variables in the equation is how Colangelo (if MLSE is foolishly enough to option him for another year) will respond this summer under both scenarios. He's always been a guy who has read his own headlines and counted his chickens before they hatched (this past Fall for example) - doesn't it worry you that he will rest of his laurels a bit this offseason if the team were to scrape into the 8th spot? Does trading Bargnani become less of a priority? To go one step further, does the absence of a first round pick in potential trades make moving Bargnani for something of value impossible?
                    Without promoting another blog....i'll just cut & paste. Feel free to private message me for the link.
                    There are more "monsters under the bed."
                    Originally Posted by TSN.ca
                    Starting Line-Up

                    Point Guard: BJ Armstrong (1995)
                    Armstrong was selected from the Chicago Bulls with the first overall pick in the 1995 Expansion Draft. Armstrong refused to report for training camp and the Raps eventually sent him to the Golden State Warriors for Carlos Rogers and Victor Alexander.

                    Shooting Guard: Kenny Anderson (1998)
                    The Raptors acquired Anderson, Alvin Williams and Gary Trent from the Portland Trail Blazers in the Damon Stoudamire deal. Anderson refused to report to Toronto, so just five days later he was shipped to Boston with Zan Tabak and Popeye Jones for Chauncey Billups, Dee Brown, Roy Rogers and John “Big Kitchen” Thomas.

                    Small Forward: John Salmons (2006)
                    In the summer of 2006, the 6-foot-6 combo guard had agreed to a sign-and-trade that would see Salmons leave the Philadelphia 76ers for the Toronto Raptors. But less than a week later, Salmons had backed out of the deal saying that the Raptors weren't a good fit for him. Salmons would eventually sign with the Sacramento Kings.

                    Power Forward: Alonzo Mourning (2004)
                    The Raptors acquired Mourning in the infamous Vince Carter trade. From the outset, Mourning refused to report to Toronto and many insisted that he was finished as a player. Toronto bought out the final two years of Mourning's contract, making him a free agent. Mourning promptly signed with the Miami Heat and would go on to win an NBA championship with Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal.

                    Centre: Hakeem Olajuwon (2001)
                    Ok, so Olajuwon actually did show up, but only in the most literal sense. The Dream played just 61 games for the Raptors, but he had checked out long before that. The Raptors sent the Rockets two draft picks for Olajuwon – one of which ended up becoming Bostjan Nachbar. Olajuwon, named to the 50 greatest NBA players of all-time, put up the lowest numbers of his career with Toronto, averaging just 7.1 points and 6.0 rebounds.

                    Bench:
                    Herb Williams (1996): Williams was acquired with Doug Christie from the Knicks for Willie Anderson and Victor Alexander. At first, Williams refused to come to Toronto, but the Raptors informed him that if he didn't play the team would be forced to forfeit a game because it didn't have enough players. Williams ended up playing 31 minutes that night and was quickly waived so he could rejoin the Knicks.

                    The reason i bring up these painful memories is this...(quoting my post from Feb 3rd 2013 @10:30pm)
                    People are not demanding a trade to Toronto. Players run like a thief in the night or don't try. The ones THAT DO WANT TO STAY....we show no loyalty. I'd argue that we have one of the worst reputations in the league. You realize we are coming close to our 20 year anniversary & have NOTHING to show for it? We're just a bus stop. A one horse town. Players are just passing through. Keeping there stats up for their next stop. End quote.

                    We have no jerseys retired. We have no one to place a call to a player on our behalf to tell them what a CAREER is like in Toronto. Let's even create an imaginary scenario where we drafted the next "Hall Of Fame" player. What would keep that player in Toronto? This is why we should be looking at international players & combing the D league to put together a system/culture that ANY player would want to be a part of.

                    p00ka wrote: View Post
                    I take nothing away from the Spurs, as by all accounts they're a superbly run organization, and there's no question that Popovich is at the top of the heap, coaching wise, BUT the draft is as much of a crapshoot for them as anyone else. Like everybody else, they take their best guess as to what a kid is going to be in a few years, and miss more often that hit.
                    I agree that everyone is guessing. We should be guessing LOW & CHEAP. We need to start from the bottom. Not draft a "superstar" and build around him. Our reputation in this league won't allow us to. Makes no sense that you respect what they have done, but won't try what they did to win. I'll rest my case with this Bleacher Report Article.
                    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...in-nba-history

                    Sprechen wrote: View Post
                    Losing always sucks no matter how you dice it. I don't care what scenarios you try to come up with. Our window to draft big time talent has closed. To improve we'll have to utilize free agency and trades.
                    Could not have said it better myself

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      octothorp wrote: View Post
                      The draft pick that OKC owns is not a 'guaranteed lottery pick'. OKC is in a win-now mode, which means they're going to value any asset that they can use now either for themselves or in a trade, rather than an asset that they will see nothing from for as many as four more years. If you were OKC, would you really pass up the highest draft pick you're likely to get in years in the chance that an up-and-coming team gets an awful injury?
                      Here the pick protection break-down:
                      - For five years (2013-2017), the pick is protected for the Thunder so that they can only receive a lottery pick, meaning if Toronto makes the playoffs in 2013, the pick gets deferred to 2014, and so on and so on for five years. Should the Raptors shock the world and qualify for the postseason in five straight seasons, the Thunder (or whoever owns the pick at that point) will get an unprotected Raptors pick in 2018.

                      For the Raptors, the forfeited pick breaks down like so:

                      - Top-3 protected in 2013
                      - Top-2 protected in 2014 and 2015
                      - No. 1 overall protected in 2016 and 2017

                      Also, to answer a frequently asked question, once the pick lands in the unprotected range (4-14 in 2013, 3-14 in 2014 and 2015, or 2-14 in 2016 or 2017), that becomes the year the Thunder must use it.

                      The above demonstrates that the pick is as close to lottery guaranteed as possible.

                      We agree that OKC is in win now mode, but do you really think the 15th-16th player drafted this year is going to make any difference what-so-ever? They already have prospects like Perry Jones III (28th pick who was considered a lottery talent) and Jeremy Lamb (12th pick). PJ3 averages 7 minutes per game and Lamb gets 4.4. Why would they want a 15th pick in a weak draft when they already have 2 prospects, that are likely better than whoever they can get at 15?

                      OKC is in the perfect position to wait and be patient. Because they are in win-now mode, they can afford to wait for that pick because they are already the best team in the NBA. If they wanted to cash in on the asset for the immediate future, they would trade it because any player picked isn't going to be an immediate help.

                      Your argument defies logic. Perhaps you are secretly Rob Babcock?
                      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        RepRaptorsintheUSA wrote: View Post
                        Without promoting another blog....i'll just cut & paste. Feel free to private message me for the link.
                        There are more "monsters under the bed."
                        Originally Posted by TSN.ca
                        Starting Line-Up

                        Point Guard: BJ Armstrong (1995)
                        Armstrong was selected from the Chicago Bulls with the first overall pick in the 1995 Expansion Draft. Armstrong refused to report for training camp and the Raps eventually sent him to the Golden State Warriors for Carlos Rogers and Victor Alexander.

                        Shooting Guard: Kenny Anderson (1998)
                        The Raptors acquired Anderson, Alvin Williams and Gary Trent from the Portland Trail Blazers in the Damon Stoudamire deal. Anderson refused to report to Toronto, so just five days later he was shipped to Boston with Zan Tabak and Popeye Jones for Chauncey Billups, Dee Brown, Roy Rogers and John “Big Kitchen” Thomas.

                        Small Forward: John Salmons (2006)
                        In the summer of 2006, the 6-foot-6 combo guard had agreed to a sign-and-trade that would see Salmons leave the Philadelphia 76ers for the Toronto Raptors. But less than a week later, Salmons had backed out of the deal saying that the Raptors weren't a good fit for him. Salmons would eventually sign with the Sacramento Kings.

                        Power Forward: Alonzo Mourning (2004)
                        The Raptors acquired Mourning in the infamous Vince Carter trade. From the outset, Mourning refused to report to Toronto and many insisted that he was finished as a player. Toronto bought out the final two years of Mourning's contract, making him a free agent. Mourning promptly signed with the Miami Heat and would go on to win an NBA championship with Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal.

                        Centre: Hakeem Olajuwon (2001)
                        Ok, so Olajuwon actually did show up, but only in the most literal sense. The Dream played just 61 games for the Raptors, but he had checked out long before that. The Raptors sent the Rockets two draft picks for Olajuwon – one of which ended up becoming Bostjan Nachbar. Olajuwon, named to the 50 greatest NBA players of all-time, put up the lowest numbers of his career with Toronto, averaging just 7.1 points and 6.0 rebounds.

                        Bench:
                        Herb Williams (1996): Williams was acquired with Doug Christie from the Knicks for Willie Anderson and Victor Alexander. At first, Williams refused to come to Toronto, but the Raptors informed him that if he didn't play the team would be forced to forfeit a game because it didn't have enough players. Williams ended up playing 31 minutes that night and was quickly waived so he could rejoin the Knicks.

                        The reason i bring up these painful memories is this...(quoting my post from Feb 3rd 2013 @10:30pm)
                        People are not demanding a trade to Toronto. Players run like a thief in the night or don't try. The ones THAT DO WANT TO STAY....we show no loyalty. I'd argue that we have one of the worst reputations in the league. You realize we are coming close to our 20 year anniversary & have NOTHING to show for it? We're just a bus stop. A one horse town. Players are just passing through. Keeping there stats up for their next stop. End quote.

                        We have no jerseys retired. We have no one to place a call to a player on our behalf to tell them what a CAREER is like in Toronto. Let's even create an imaginary scenario where we drafted the next "Hall Of Fame" player. What would keep that player in Toronto? This is why we should be looking at international players & combing the D league to put together a system/culture that ANY player would want to be a part of.



                        I agree that everyone is guessing. We should be guessing LOW & CHEAP. We need to start from the bottom. Not draft a "superstar" and build around him. Our reputation in this league won't allow us to. Makes no sense that you respect what they have done, but won't try what they did to win. I'll rest my case with this Bleacher Report Article.
                        http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...in-nba-history


                        Could not have said it better myself
                        So where exactly are the draft picks that refused to come to Toronto?

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Fully wrote: View Post
                          So where exactly are the draft picks that refused to come to Toronto?
                          +1

                          Not just draft picks, HIGH drafts picks....
                          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Sprechen wrote: View Post
                            @Lark Benson - Thanks for your non-reply reply; a real paradigm shifter
                            Sorry, but that's all the post deserves. Sick to death of arguing the point with people who have blinders on and no grasp of NBA history. Talent wins NBA championships, and the Raps have only 3 ways of acquiring said talent:

                            a) the draft
                            b) trading for it
                            c) luring it in free agency

                            C requires not only a desirable destination (which Toronto has proven, fair or not, not to be), but also existing talent on the roster that top-level talent wants to play with.

                            B requires not only an exceptional amount of luck and timing, but again requires existing talent on the roster in order to have said talent resign, as top-level players are only ever traded when their existing clubs believe they won't resign.

                            That leaves A. It's unpredictable and it's difficult, but it has proven time and time again to be the most effective way of adding championship-calibre talent to a roster. Again, look at the standing, and how each of those teams added their talent, then tell me you can see the Raptors doing the same without the draft.

                            You're right that the draft window has closed, but that doesn't mean it was the right course of action, only that BC has pinned himself into a corner that cannot possibly lead to championship level results without an insane level of luck. Yes, losing sucks, welcome to the world of pro sports; you have to be bad before you can be good.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Sprechen wrote: View Post
                              Attention Amir Johnson: You're the fucking man! I've had your back since you got here. The guys who do quick reaction tend to evaluate you based on your stat line and often overlook the spirit and intangible hustle plays you bring every game, even when the shot is not falling. I knew that was a good value contract, shame on those who even suggested using the amnesty.
                              The deal at the start was terrible. He's earning it now no question about it, but we're talking about the 3rd year of a 5 year contract. If you want to break it down to the actual year, yes he's good value. But if you look at the entire contract and what he did the first two years (not a whole lot), then you're really talking about paying a guy who's averaging about $9M per year. It's the same as waiting until Bargnani's 13-game span and say "Yea man, that contract was totally worth it."

                              Not to say that Amir Johnson is suddenly going to revert back to his 6 fouls in 6 minutes routine, but the point is that at the time, he was definitely not worth the $30M contract he signed in 2010.
                              your pal,
                              ebrian

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Axel wrote: View Post
                                Here the pick protection break-down:
                                - For five years (2013-2017), the pick is protected for the Thunder so that they can only receive a lottery pick, meaning if Toronto makes the playoffs in 2013, the pick gets deferred to 2014, and so on and so on for five years. Should the Raptors shock the world and qualify for the postseason in five straight seasons, the Thunder (or whoever owns the pick at that point) will get an unprotected Raptors pick in 2018.

                                For the Raptors, the forfeited pick breaks down like so:

                                - Top-3 protected in 2013
                                - Top-2 protected in 2014 and 2015
                                - No. 1 overall protected in 2016 and 2017

                                Also, to answer a frequently asked question, once the pick lands in the unprotected range (4-14 in 2013, 3-14 in 2014 and 2015, or 2-14 in 2016 or 2017), that becomes the year the Thunder must use it.

                                The above demonstrates that the pick is as close to lottery guaranteed as possible.

                                We agree that OKC is in win now mode, but do you really think the 15th-16th player drafted this year is going to make any difference what-so-ever? They already have prospects like Perry Jones III (28th pick who was considered a lottery talent) and Jeremy Lamb (12th pick). PJ3 averages 7 minutes per game and Lamb gets 4.4. Why would they want a 15th pick in a weak draft when they already have 2 prospects, that are likely better than whoever they can get at 15?

                                OKC is in the perfect position to wait and be patient. Because they are in win-now mode, they can afford to wait for that pick because they are already the best team in the NBA. If they wanted to cash in on the asset for the immediate future, they would trade it because any player picked isn't going to be an immediate help.

                                Your argument defies logic. Perhaps you are secretly Rob Babcock?
                                +1

                                Comment

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