Indepth analysis PER vs. Salary

[ezz_bee]

Okay, this isn't really that indepth and my analysis isn't that great, but sometimes it's fun to think about bang for your buck!

Assumptions: This is obviously not the be all and end all of value analysis. PER is only 1 stat (and offensive heavy). This is just one way to determine value, and this is more an intellectual exercise than me trying to play gm or basketball guru.

As the psychic hotline likes to remind us "For entertainment purposes only."


I wish I knew how to do a nice table, but I don't so I'll keep it simple... if anyone wants my full spreadsheet send me a msg and i'll email it to you. Basically, the Salary/Per tells you how many PER points the player is producing for every 100,000 he is making.

Column headings...
1) Player name and position
2) Current PER
3) This year's Salary/this year's PER
4) Average of 3 year salary/ this year's PER
5) Rank of players this year salary/this year PER
5) Rank of players 3 year average salary/ this year PER

[PRE]Quincy Acy, SF 18.3 2.7519 2.0617 1 1
Alan Anderson, SG 12.9 1.4574 1.4574 2 2
John Lucas, PG 15.5 1.0333 1.0106 3 3
Mickael Pietrus, SF 6.3 0.6268 0.6268 4 4
Aaron Gray, C 8.9 0.3560 0.3482 8 5
Kyle Lowry, PG 19.4 0.3374 0.3244 9 6
Jonas Valanciunas, C 13.4 0.3971 0.3128 6 7
Terrence Ross, SG 9.7 0.3784 0.2961 7 8
Amir Johnson, PF 18.2 0.3033 0.2800 10 9
Linas Kleiza, SF 8.4 0.1826 0.1826 12 10
DeMar DeRozan, SG 14.3 0.4276 0.1729 5 11
Landry Fields, SF 10.1 0.2020 0.1618 11 12
Andrea Bargnani, PF 11.4 0.1140 0.1036 13 13
Rudy Gay, SF† 16.4 0.0996 0.0917 14 14
Sebastian Telfair, PG† -10.2 -0.6507 -0.6507 15 15[/PRE]

EDIT: I am very sorry about how this table looks... when editing it the columns line up so it is somewhat legible... umm yeah... #epicfail

At a glance we notice that for both this year and 3 year the top 6-7 spots are held by guys on 1 year deals or on rookie contracts. It's until the 7-8th spot where we get our first non-rookie on a multi-year deal... Aaron Gray, who makes less than 3 million a year.

Here's what I found interesting...

Demar: if you evaluate his production vs. what he's making this year (less than 4 mill) He's fifth, beating out JV at sixth who is the only other guy who gets more than 15 minutes and could be considered as part of our CORE. However, if you average out his 3 year salary he drops from 5th to 10th. Basically, he isn't worth what we are going to pay him based on what he's currently doing, and all that "hard work" he's putting in NEEDS translate into better production next season.


Lowry: More production per dollar than any other player getting major minutes. Beating out Amir Johnson who I assumed would be the leader. In your opinion who gives better bang for your buck Lowry, or Amir?


Linas Vs. Landry: Kleiza is averaging 18.8 minutes/game vs. Fields 21.1 and earning 4.6 mill vs. 5.0 mill, Landry is providing more production per dollar THIS YEAR vs. Kleiza, but if they both provide the same production over the next year, Kleiza is providing more value. That scares me. A lot.


Rudy Gay & Andrea Bargnani: Gay provides even LESS value than bargs in terms of PER vs. Salary, and is worst on the team if you don't include Sebass (which i don't). I'm not saying I'm against Rudy, or that he's less valuable than bargnani but that is also cause for concern. PREDICTION if the raps don't put up a fight in the post season next year the fan base will turn on Gay.

Have fun with it.


†players acquired during season

[ebrian]

The key to making a good table in forums is adding before and after PRE (put square brackets like you would to bold a statement) tags.

[ezz_bee]

hmm... I must be doing something wrong

[AlienOverlord]

Column headings...
1) Player name and position
2) Current PER
3) This year's Salary/this year's PER
4) Average of 3 year salary/ this year's PER
5) Rank of players this year salary/this year PER
5) Rank of players 3 year average salary/ this year PER

Name+Position	PER	Sal/PER	3Yr Sal/PER	Rank	3Yr Rank
Quincy Acy, SF	18.3	2.7519	2.0617	1	1
Alan Anderson, SG	12.9	1.4574	1.4574	2	2
John Lucas, PG	15.5	1.0333	1.0106	3	3
Mickael Pietrus, SF	6.3	0.6268	0.6268	4	4
DeMar DeRozan, SG	14.3	0.4276	0.1729	5	11
Jonas Valanciunas, C	13.4	0.3971	0.3128	6	7
Terrence Ross, SG	9.7	0.3784	0.2961	7	8
Aaron Gray, C	8.9	0.3560	0.3482	8	5
Kyle Lowry, PG	19.4	0.3374	0.3244	9	6
Amir Johnson, PF	18.2	0.3033	0.2800	10	9
Linas Kleiza, SF	8.4	0.1826	0.1826	12	10
Landry Fields, SF	10.1	0.202	0.1618	11	12
Andrea Bargnani, PF	11.4	0.1140	0.1036	13	13
Rudy Gay, SF	16.4	0.0996	0.0917	14	14

Took a bit of work. Can you see what I did if you reply with quote?

[Craiger]

I don't think one can accurately breakdown PER/$ in the way you've done it. The stat isn't a linear measurement of production (like for example WP) rather its more like a ranking.

There is a sort of 'range' on PER where its extremely difficult to exceed (around 22 PER I believe) and drop below (5 PER I believe). So there are increasing returns as a players PER goes up and diminishing returns as it goes down. A straight PER/$ won't reflect that unfortunately.


For instance. A perfectly average player is 15 PER and approx $5 mil. - Lebron James is 31.5 PER and approx 18 mil

So an average player provides 3.3 PER/mil. Lebron James 1.75 PER/mil (This despite Lebron putting up one of the 10 greatest PERs in history)

A 'max money player' needs to reach approx. 45+ PER to = and average player. Thats an impossible number to achieve.


What you'd likely have to do is find fair value for each ranking of PER and then calculate how far away each Raptor is.

So, purely guessing, if 15 PER = 5 mil.

Each PER between 15 and 20 = 1 mil. Each PER between 20-25 = 2 mil. Each PER 25+ = 3 mil

Each PER between 15-10 = -0.5 mil. Each PER between 10- 5 = -0.25 mil. Each PER 5- = worthless.

Using the above for the Raps (going to round numbers so its easier).

Amir Johnsons 18 PER should be payed approx. 8 mil, is payed 7 mil, therefore is underpayed 1 mil

Kyle Lowry 19 PER should be payed approx. 9 mil, is payed 6 mil, therefore is underpayed 3 mil

Rudy Gay 16 PER should be payed approx 6 mil, is payed 16 mil, therefore is overpayed 10 mil

Michael Pietrus 6 PER should be payed 1.5 mil, is payed 1 mil, therefore is underpayed payed 0.5 mil

And then they can be ranked accordingly.

(ofcoures we can do the opposite. ie. figure out how much PER they should reach given their respective salary)

Hope that makes sense - but I'm no teacher.

[ezz_bee]

Craiger, that's a great breakdown and way more useful than what i've done. You should patent that stat and use it to rank every player in the nba.

[ezz_bee]

Took a bit of work. Can you see what I did if you reply with quote?

Unfortunately no.

[phez]

i never use the per rating. the offense/defense rating numbers are much more telling.

[ezz_bee]

i never use the per rating. the offense/defense rating numbers are much more telling.

I actually agree, however, I only had a limited amount of time today so it was easier/faster to use per as it's one number as opposed to two.

[Hugmenot]

PREDICTION if the raps don't put up a fight in the post season next year the fan base will turn on Gay.

I agree with this statement.

[AlienOverlord]

Unfortunately no.

Looks like this:
< table >
< tr >
< td >Derozan< /td > < td >14.3< /td > < td >...< /td >
< /tr >
< tr >
< td > Someone< /td > < td >...< /td > < td >...< /td >
< /tr >
< /table >
but without the spaces in the <>. Can also use [] like I did.

[ezz_bee]

Thanks, I'll have to practice in my free time!

[golden]

Nice efforts. If you're doing an analysis on what value/production you are getting for the salary paid, then one thing that should be accounted for is minutes. So for example: Player A (bench guy) is putting up a PER of 20, and playing 12MPG. Player B has the same PER (20), but playing 36MPG. Obviously, Player B is more valuable because you are getting more of that 20PER each game. So, you could consider normalizing the production by multiplying by player MPG and dividing by 48MPG (game length).