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Bill Simmons: NBA Trade Value

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  • Bill Simmons: NBA Trade Value

    Raptor mentions from Part 1:

    New post-lockout NBA reality no. 2: You definitely shouldn't pay $8 million a year for non-impact perimeter players (Caron Butler alert!); you probably shouldn't pay $13 million a year for Luol Deng or Andre Iguodala (sorry, fellas); and you DEFINITELY shouldn't pay Rudy Gay $18 million a year unless you're forced to at gunpoint. There's too much available cheap perimeter labor for defense and 3s. Why pay Rudy Gay $18 million when you can pay Jimmy Butler $1.5 million? Why? WHYYYYYYY????? The one exception: Anderson, if only because I don't mind spending $8 million a year on someone who takes SEVEN 3s a game and makes 39 percent of them. He's an expensive luxury, but not prohibitively expensive.

    Anyway, looking through the four drafts from 2008 to 2011: Anderson went 21st. Leonard went 15th. Hayward: ninth. Butler: 30th. Earl Clark: 14th. Chase Budinger: 44th. Klay Thompson: 11th. Chandler Parsons: 38th. Paul George: 10th. Wayne Ellington: 28th. Lance Stephenson: 40th. Danny Green: 46th. Nic Batum: 25th. Brandon Rush (out for the year, but still): 13th. I just listed 14 guys who could help anyone's 2013 playoff rotation if they were healthy; all make 3s except for Stephenson, and NONE were drafted in the top eight. Meanwhile, you have Toronto shelling out $23.1 million next year just for Gay and Landry Fields. Maybe it should use its fancy camera technology to capture the motions of a smart GM.
    On to our toughest 2013 omissions from "least tough" to "toughest" …

    Evan Fournier: The captain of this year's Bill Simmons All-Stars for "The Guys I Inexplicably Like Much More Than I Should Probably Like Them," joining Shavlik Randolph (check out his per-minutes); Alec Burks (puzzlingly buried by the wildly incompetent Ty Corbin); Donatas Motiejunas (I bet he sneaks into the top 50 next year); Terrence Ross (I just like him); Kyle Singler (destined for a second life as a Spurs role player); Brandan Wright (figured out how to game the flaw in Hollinger's PER system — he always gives you 14 good minutes, but if you play him 40 minutes, he'll still give you 14 good minutes and the other 26 will be atrocious); Kosta Koufos (although it's an explicable likability in his case); Wayne Ellington (did we ever figure out why Memphis salary-dumped him right before the Rudy Gay salary dump?); Jimmer Fredette (I still think he'll be heard from someday on a good team, à la J.J. Redick, even if there's a 65 percent chance this point will be thrown back in my face on Twitter five years from now); Shaun Livingston (a masterful comeback as a fun-to-play-with veteran on a likably crappy Cavs team); Patrick Beverley (not to be confused with Rich Peverley); Reggie Jackson (looming as an under-the-radar playoff X factor off OKC's bench); and one of the Morris twins (can't remember which one). Please don't confuse this team with the Jordan Crawford All-Stars (for players who make me want to swallow my own tongue).

    45. Enes Kanter
    44. Jonas Valanciunas
    Fun little battle of promising/crafty/athletic big guys who are either wildly overrated or wildly underrated within the league (depending on who's talking). Kanter produced nearly every time Utah played him big minutes (including last month's eye-opening 23-22 game against Charlotte); that's the biggest reason why the Jazz will probably sign-and-trade Al Jefferson this summer. He also inspired this thought-provoking e-mail from Patrick in Memphis: "If you wanted to jeer Enes Kanter, are you going with the anus or penis pronunciation? I feel like it could go either way."

    As for Valanciunas, the promising Raptors big man who's been averaging a 15-7 since mid-March, here's a true story: When Sam Presti was quietly shopping James Harden last October, he called Toronto to feel out a Jonas package. And got rebuffed. Quickly.15 Let's give Jonas the edge over Enes if only because Weezer never wrote a song called "My Name Is Enes."
    15 Our pal Chris Broussard told me this one and nearly made my eyeballs fly out of my head. But I got it confirmed — it's true.

    So how do you feel about that?

  • #2


    • #3
      Wasn't the Harden trade already a well-known rumour?


      • #4
        I get to post my thoughts on this a nth time, having just posted this in the Everything JV thread....

        I've said this before somewhere, but I'm so glad this didn't happen. People might say Houston was smart for the deal, but giving up Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb is not the same thing as giving up JV. At the time, it seemed pretty certain Harden was going to be an all-star SG, but I don't know if anyone predicted he'd be able to carry the load he has. And I'm a gigantic Harden fan. He's my favorite SG in the league. But I still wouldn't have given up JV. But if they had wanted Demar and Ross (to mirror Martin and Lamb), I would've done that. I would've offered them their pick of anybody from the roster except JV.

        Basically, at the time of the trade, it's a sure all-star SG for a C who has a pretty good shot at being an all-star. Or put the way I see it, if Harden's a top 5 SG, and JV has a fair shot at being a top 5 C, I'd keep the top 5 C every time. I assume Colangelo asked if there were other pieces they wanted, but I'm sure there's no player other than JV that OKC wanted a deal built around.

        *I'm really incredibly high on JV though. I think the list of players I'd trade him for (without having doubts) is 2 long: James and Durant. I see JV as being fully in control of high how he goes, and given his combination of size, athleticism, skills, motor, intangibles...just everything is there, so the sky's the limit. He's so young and I think he's the best prospect the Raps have ever had.
        Last edited by white men can't jump; Thu Apr 18, 2013, 07:37 PM.


        • #5
          to me Kevin Martin+Jeremy Lamb= Derozan + Ross, the game changer ? our own freaken draft pick. That's what drove me nuts as soon as i heard the trade. Bargs might not have sucked so much if he wasn't handed a franchise without earning anything. you know making him work for his min, his money, his bricks.


          • #6
            Yes, all day, everyday.


            • #7
              Never, It's much easier to get a star wing player than a star big. JV is very rare


              • #8
                No one talks about the fact that James Harden is playing in a Phoenix Suns 2.0 system which obviously will inflate his offensive numbers. His real impact will be shown this playoffs -- whether he can lead his Rockets over his former team. I enjoy watching James Harden & I hold the opinion that he is one of the best offensive players in the league, but he his defense is decent at best. Add the fact that at the time of the trade, Jonas is an unproven commodity and therefore, we would have given up Ross or Davis [or both] to make up for the draft pick that we don't have, then all of a sudden, we have gaping holes [LOL] on our roster.

                But I have to admit, it's really fun watching him put in work on offense. His foot work and creativity off the bounce is top notch.
                “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

                -- Charles Barkley


                • #9
                  i think it’s hilarious and not-surprising at all that this vote currently stands at 5 to 2 in favor of ‘nay’.

                  hey you know how there’s that thread about hollinger’s pre-season win prediction and he was dead on while every single one of you over-predicted except for the brain? and you guys are gettin’ all self-reflective about maybe being a little too optimistic? or there was that other pre-season thread where chuck thought we’d finish last in the division and many of you freaked out and decried how little he actually knows about basketball and how much he hates canada etc... he was also right. it seems to me that often the american media many of the lot on this board tend to resent so much is a lot more accurate in their assessment of this team, precisely because they don’t give a shit and therefore can look up and down the roster and actually be objective.

                  anyhow, i think yer doin it again.

                  i make this trade in a second. it is a bona-fide, guaranteed, 23 year old franchise player years away from his prime and actually worth a max contract, for a player we all hope and has a chance to become a franchise player, but who will take at least a few years to do so.

                  and i love JV and agree enthusiastically with all these things:

                  white men can't jump wrote: View Post
                  *I'm really incredibly high on JV though. I see JV as being fully in control of high how he goes, and given his combination of size, athleticism, skills, motor, intangibles...just everything is there, so the sky's the limit. He's so young and I think he's the best prospect the Raps have ever had.
                  but it’s still not even a question for me. take the sure thing every time.


                  • #10
                    NoPropsneeded wrote: View Post
                    Never, It's much easier to get a star wing player than a star big. JV is very rare
                    you can flip this around so easily to say:

                    in a rapidly changing league where there's such a huge premium on 3 pt shooting and ball movement, where every one of the best teams does not have a franchise traditional big except san antonio and (arguably) memphis, and yet all of them have franchise perimeter players, do you need one?

                    cuz to me all current evidence points towards 'no.'


                    • #11
                      all that said i really do love JV and wouldn't trade him for most of the players ahead of him on that list, or that i presume will be ahead of him on that list.


                      • #12
                        I'm not sure if I'd trade Jonas for Anthony Davis at this point. Call me foolish.
                        “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King


                        • #13
                          Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
                          I'm not sure if I'd trade Jonas for Anthony Davis at this point. Call me foolish.
                          You're not alone. I wouldn't do that trade either. But straight up, Harden for Valanciunas, I will -- although with a heavy heart.

                          I just don't think that would have been the case. I really think for the trade to have happened, it would have included either Ross/DeMar & Ed Davis to get Harden.
                          “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

                          -- Charles Barkley


                          • #14
                            Wow, tough question.

                            I would, uhm... Ugh, I would probably do so, because of that fact Harden is arguably a top 5 wing player, an all-star already at young age, and arguably a superstar already. Now, if we include Derozan in a deal - so no log-jam at the shooting guard - that means we'd have to get some SERIOUS assets in return. Jonas's potential is extremely high, and Derozan is one of the better shooting guards in the league with still much, much more room to grow.

                            Straight up deal? Jonas for Harden? Sure, but I would do it with a tear running down my face.


                            Seeing Gray in that lineup looks so wrong, lol.
                            Twitter: @ReubenJRD • NBA, Raptors writer for Daily Hive Vancouver, Toronto.


                            • #15
                              I wouldn't trade JV for Harden. However, if Harden was on the raps, and another team was offering me JV for him, I wouldn't make that trade either.

                              I love watching both those guys play.
                              "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

                              "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

                              "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon