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Bill Simmons: NBA Trade Value

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  • #16
    I would hesitate, then probably reject the offer. Harden wanted a max extension. That pretty much would kill it for me. But I don't think I could reject it immediately. That's what the article insinuates. I don't even understand how that is possible.

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    • #17
      In all seriousness, even if these two were the flagships of the trade, let's take a look at what the trade consisted of:

      James Harden traded by the Oklahoma City Thunder with Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to the Houston Rockets for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, a future 1st round draft pick, a future 1st round draft pick and a future 2nd round draft pick.

      I would translate that into:

      James Harden
      Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook, Lazar Hayward
      for
      Terrence Ross
      DeMar DeRozan
      Jonas Valanciunas
      future 1st round pick (would they take Ed Davis?)
      future 2nd round pick (would they take Quincy Acy?)

      So now you're looking at this opening day roster:

      PG: Lowry, Calderon, Lucas
      SG: James Harden, Daequan Cook
      SF: Landry Fields, Alan Anderson, Lazar Hayward, Linas Kleiza, Dominic McGuire
      PF: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson
      C: Aaron Gray, Cole Aldrich

      I don't know if this team is better than what we have today, although the future is slightly less bleak from a cap standpoint. This team doesn't make the playoffs so OKC still gets our 2013 pick. The only thing from a hindsight perspective is maybe if they didn't ask for Terrence Ross (or if we had drafted Andre Drummond instead of Ross and they didn't ask for Drummond). I can't imagine this team playing much defense but it'd certainly be a fun team to watch. Harden is 23 with a max contract that is easily more attractive than Rudy Gay's. Landry Fields and Linas Kleiza were already hurt at the start of the season. The 2012-2013 season won't be pretty.

      If you throw in the Boozer-Bargnani trade, then things turn around quickly and we have a playoff team for the next 4+ years.

      PG: Lowry, Calderon, Lucas
      SG: Harden, Cook
      SF: Fields, Anderson, Kleiza
      PF: Boozer, Amir Johnson
      C: Gray, Aldrich

      So, if the Boozer/Barg offer presents itself, I would've been glad for having accepted the Harden trade. Boozer's massive contract becomes easier to swallow because Harden isn't overpaid like Gay is overpaid.

      Without the Boozer/Barg trade. Calderon expires. Hayward, McGuire, Cook, Lucas, Anderson all come off the books. We're looking at the following payroll in the summer of 2013:

      Harden: 18M
      Bargnani: 11M
      Lowry: 6M
      Johnson: 6M
      Fields: 6M
      Kleiza: 5M
      Gray: 3M

      $55M. If you Amnesty Bargnani, you should have enough to sign Josh Smith and round out the remaining spots with vet minimums.

      My knee-jerk reaction was that I'd have done the trade. Looking back now with possible roster configurations, I'm even more convinced. Because either way you have pretty solid teams with some maneuverability in the offseason. As it stands, we have nearly nothing to do in the offseason and the team still isn't a team where you can honestly say we'll make the playoffs for sure next year.

      It's hard to let go of a nice prospect like Jonas. Just like it's hard to trade Vince Carter for Kobe Bryant at the time, because at the time you think Vince is the next Michael Jordan. On the other hand when you look at the horizons of the NBA and how neither team that is favored to reach NBA Finals have a dominant C, you realize that it's much more useful to get a sure-thing superstar.
      your pal,
      ebrian

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      • #18
        Big man talent>Wing talent
        Especially when you can't say for sure Harden would even want to stay.
        Would have been mighty tempting though

        Comment


        • #19
          ebrian wrote: View Post
          In all seriousness, even if these two were the flagships of the trade, let's take a look at what the trade consisted of:

          James Harden traded by the Oklahoma City Thunder with Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to the Houston Rockets for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, a future 1st round draft pick, a future 1st round draft pick and a future 2nd round draft pick.

          I would translate that into:

          James Harden
          Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook, Lazar Hayward
          for
          Terrence Ross
          DeMar DeRozan
          Jonas Valanciunas
          future 1st round pick (would they take Ed Davis?)
          future 2nd round pick (would they take Quincy Acy?)


          So now you're looking at this opening day roster:

          PG: Lowry, Calderon, Lucas
          SG: James Harden, Daequan Cook
          SF: Landry Fields, Alan Anderson, Lazar Hayward, Linas Kleiza, Dominic McGuire
          PF: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson
          C: Aaron Gray, Cole Aldrich

          I don't know if this team is better than what we have today, although the future is slightly less bleak from a cap standpoint. This team doesn't make the playoffs so OKC still gets our 2013 pick. The only thing from a hindsight perspective is maybe if they didn't ask for Terrence Ross (or if we had drafted Andre Drummond instead of Ross and they didn't ask for Drummond). I can't imagine this team playing much defense but it'd certainly be a fun team to watch. Harden is 23 with a max contract that is easily more attractive than Rudy Gay's. Landry Fields and Linas Kleiza were already hurt at the start of the season. The 2012-2013 season won't be pretty.

          If you throw in the Boozer-Bargnani trade, then things turn around quickly and we have a playoff team for the next 4+ years.

          PG: Lowry, Calderon, Lucas
          SG: Harden, Cook
          SF: Fields, Anderson, Kleiza
          PF: Boozer, Amir Johnson
          C: Gray, Aldrich

          So, if the Boozer/Barg offer presents itself, I would've been glad for having accepted the Harden trade. Boozer's massive contract becomes easier to swallow because Harden isn't overpaid like Gay is overpaid.

          Without the Boozer/Barg trade. Calderon expires. Hayward, McGuire, Cook, Lucas, Anderson all come off the books. We're looking at the following payroll in the summer of 2013:

          Harden: 18M
          Bargnani: 11M
          Lowry: 6M
          Johnson: 6M
          Fields: 6M
          Kleiza: 5M
          Gray: 3M

          $55M. If you Amnesty Bargnani, you should have enough to sign Josh Smith and round out the remaining spots with vet minimums.

          My knee-jerk reaction was that I'd have done the trade. Looking back now with possible roster configurations, I'm even more convinced. Because either way you have pretty solid teams with some maneuverability in the offseason. As it stands, we have nearly nothing to do in the offseason and the team still isn't a team where you can honestly say we'll make the playoffs for sure next year.

          It's hard to let go of a nice prospect like Jonas. Just like it's hard to trade Vince Carter for Kobe Bryant at the time, because at the time you think Vince is the next Michael Jordan. On the other hand when you look at the horizons of the NBA and how neither team that is favored to reach NBA Finals have a dominant C, you realize that it's much more useful to get a sure-thing superstar.
          I think you are comparing apples to oranges.

          Your example makes the assumption that the pieces Houston gave up were equal to the Raptors pieces. I don't think that is accurate. I think JV is more valuable than the future firsts from Houston because you knew what you were getting and it was a piece that OKC is in desperate need of long term and a player they coveted. Clearly the Houston package was not their first choice and did not address the Thunder long term needs at C.

          I think if this deal was done you would have seen JV, possibly 2nd rd picks, and salary cap equalizer for Harden's max incoming salary (because you only do this if he agrees to the extension). Harden would have become a PPP player much like DeRozan right now where his outgoing trade value would have been $5.8M but his incoming trade value would have been around $13M (average of final year of rookie deal and extension). Raps would have had to send out ~$8.5M (DD pre-extension $3.4, Ed $2.2, JV $3.4 = $9).

          I would not have done the trade for JV either. C's are the hardest position to find in the NBA and we saw glimpses of what JV can be and he is only 20. I think you need to give JV a couple of more years in the league before you can truly make the call if it was a good decision or not. The instant gratification would have been to get Harden but longer term I think it will be in the Raptors best interests to do what they did. Time will tell.

          Comment


          • #20
            As ebrian noted, this was the trade:

            James Harden traded by the Oklahoma City Thunder with Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to the Houston Rockets for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, a future 1st round draft pick, a future 1st round draft pick and a future 2nd round draft pick.

            The equivalent haul in my opinion would have been:

            Jeremy Lamb == Terrence Ross (first round from 2012)
            Kevin Martin == Jose Calderon (large expiring contract)
            2nd round pick == Toronto's 2013 2nd round pick
            1st round (top 20 protection) == ??
            1st round (top 3/playoff protected) == ??

            The two first's are difficult since the Raptors had none to offer. But I would imagine that OKC would have taken JV instead as that is what they wanted.

            Giving up JV/Ross/Jose/2nd rounder for Harden seems like a lot, and I'm glad we didn't do it. Harden at that time was only a 6th man in OKC and was never given a chance to lead.. he proved everyone wrong but that was still a gamble at that time.

            Comment


            • #21
              I took a long time to decide on this one, but I figure I would do it. Trades based off of potential of a certain player are soso hard to determine whether you're winning the trade or not.

              I'm more of a guy that figures talent over potential would better serve the team. JV does have a lot of upside, and I'm really excited to see what he provides us in the future...

              I understand the arguments that no one knew if Harden would ever reach star status, buuuut at the same time, everyone knew Harden was a starting-calibre player in OKC, he just chose to anchor the second unit. Him alongside Rudy in the starting lineup would be spectacular.

              Addressing the starting lineup issues this would cause...we could go small for the time being and have:

              Lowry
              Harden
              DeRozan
              Gay
              Amir

              Amir played a lot of center during the when-Bargs-was-actually-healthy era, so I think he's perfectly capable of filling that hole for an extended period of time. This lineup has it all, from shooting to athleticism, and Lowry/Harden's combined playmaking ability would do wonders for the offense.

              Eventually going small would hurt us when playing teams that have fundamental bigs, especially PF's around the league that take Rudy down in the post. In this case, we could finally package DeMar and receive a capable starting center. (I say capable because people will say Gray will do just fine, which is completely not true). Possible returns could be Andrew Bogut, or Pekovic (my dream) for DeMar and a pick. Insert your own player as well. The lineup would then form into:

              Lowry
              Harden
              Gay
              Amir
              ???

              Playoffs.
              Last edited by isaacthompson; Fri Apr 19th, 2013, 09:58 AM.
              Twitter - @thekid_it

              Comment


              • #22
                Wow, this is a tough trade to guage. Especially back then when nobody knew if Harden would succeed in a starting role and when nobody knew if JV was for real or a bust.

                On the one hand Harden is a rare talent that projects to be the best SG in the league possibly as early as next year with Kobe out and Wade constantly battling injuries...that first team all NBA squad. And he has the ability to make players around him better as well. He's taken Houston into the playoffs in his first year without a tonne of talent around him.

                On the other hand, JV has shown signs that he could be the real deal. I don't see him as a Tim Duncan type big that is going to dominate his position night in and out, but it's quite possible he could be a 15 & 10 centre in this league which is top notch. It's also true that good bigs are much harder to come by than guards and wings.

                Tough call.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Pass. Although Harden is definitely better than JV (at the moment), it is easier to build a core around JV.

                  Once JV polishes his game and averages 20-10, it would be easier to get superstars to come and play with him. One, because he is not a volume scorer, he wont need 20-30 shots a game since he will be working closer to the basket. its easier to acquire perimeter guys and combine them with bigmen rather than finding big men and combining them with perimeter players. Why? Because big men do not control the ball as much as perimeter guys. Big men go with the flow, so to speak and they dont demand. Its better to have an established big man on your team then build the team around him.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    JV is too rare to give up At 20 he already has more offensive tools than Dwight Howard.. Kid is legit.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
                      Pass. Although Harden is definitely better than JV (at the moment), it is easier to build a core around JV.

                      Once JV polishes his game and averages 20-10, it would be easier to get superstars to come and play with him. One, because he is not a volume scorer, he wont need 20-30 shots a game since he will be working closer to the basket. its easier to acquire perimeter guys and combine them with bigmen rather than finding big men and combining them with perimeter players. Why? Because big men do not control the ball as much as perimeter guys. Big men go with the flow, so to speak and they dont demand. Its better to have an established big man on your team then build the team around him.
                      20 & 10 doesn't happen without demanding the ball in the post. Likely not going to happen unless DeMar or Gay and possibly both are traded. As far as attracting super stars goes...in today's NBA you have a better chance of attracting free agent super stars by having their friends on your team, not by having and established player on your team, imo. Just ask Mark Cuban how easy it's been to get a super star running mate for Dirk. Imo, the only way to get a super star in Toronto is via trade or draft.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Rapstor4Life wrote: View Post
                        JV is too rare to give up At 20 he already has more offensive tools than Dwight Howard.. Kid is legit.
                        That's a weird comparison since Dwight's dominance has nothing to do with his offensive tools.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
                          Pass. Although Harden is definitely better than JV (at the moment), it is easier to build a core around JV.

                          Once JV polishes his game and averages 20-10, it would be easier to get superstars to come and play with him. One, because he is not a volume scorer, he wont need 20-30 shots a game since he will be working closer to the basket. its easier to acquire perimeter guys and combine them with bigmen rather than finding big men and combining them with perimeter players. Why? Because big men do not control the ball as much as perimeter guys. Big men go with the flow, so to speak and they dont demand. Its better to have an established big man on your team then build the team around him.
                          Indeed. With JV's tools, and FT shooting, he can average around 20 (give or take) on very few shots. The thing with a guy like JV, as much as he hasn't been passing and has been turning it over, you can already see the beginnings of a SMART post player. So he will always demand the ball, but never monopolize the offense, easily realizing the principle of passing up a shot for a better one. JV already increasingly rarely forces up a bad shot.

                          Building around a good 2-way big man is the easiest way to start building a team that can sustain success in the long-term, because it instantly gives you someone who can dominate the most important part of the court on any given night. And even if you have better players on the perimeter, it opens so much for them.
                          Last edited by white men can't jump; Fri Apr 19th, 2013, 10:52 AM.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            chris wrote: View Post
                            you can flip this around so easily to say:

                            in a rapidly changing league where there's such a huge premium on 3 pt shooting and ball movement, where every one of the best teams does not have a franchise traditional big except san antonio and (arguably) memphis, and yet all of them have franchise perimeter players, do you need one?

                            cuz to me all current evidence points towards 'no.'
                            Look at San Antonio and Memphis. They are much more effective teams. Teams with star traditional bigs always have a better chance of winning a championship, history has prove that time and time again. I don't care what "era" it is, a traditional franchise big is very hard to come by these days. Valanciunas can dominate his position more than James Harden can, simply because he is bigger and more skilled than most players at his position. Where as for Harden, there are like 10 other guys who can do whatever he can do.
                            Last edited by NoPropsneeded; Fri Apr 19th, 2013, 11:11 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              I think it's too early to say whether refusing the Harden for JV trade was wise. Personally, I think that JV has a very high ceiling and could be the anchor on a very good team. If he reaches the ceiling of being a top-flight center, then I think BC made the right move. But there are also intangibles. Would Harden sign an extension in TO? Maybe BC was concerned that he would have problems re-signing Harden. He would have definitely needed to have an assurance that Harden would sign a long-term deal before even contemplating that trade. On the other hand, I see JV becoming a really important dimension of the Raptors' franchise DNA, on and off the court. He seems to be a very positive guy, whose enthusiasm rubs off on teammates. That can be a very valuable trait in building a franchise.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                NoPropsneeded wrote: View Post
                                Look at San Antonio and Memphis. They are much more effective teams. Teams with star traditional bigs always have a better chance of winning a championship, history has prove that time and time again. I don't care what "era" it is, a traditional franchise big is very hard to come by these days. Valanciunas can dominate his position more than James Harden can, simply because he is bigger and more skilled than most players at his position. Where as for Harden, there are like 10 other guys who can do whatever he can do.
                                Bingo!

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