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Bill Simmons: NBA Trade Value

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  • #31
    chris wrote: View Post
    you can flip this around so easily to say:

    in a rapidly changing league where there's such a huge premium on 3 pt shooting and ball movement, where every one of the best teams does not have a franchise traditional big except san antonio and (arguably) memphis, and yet all of them have franchise perimeter players, do you need one?

    cuz to me all current evidence points towards 'no.'
    You can flip THIS around and say, if you're going to try and win with a roster that emphasizes speed and shooting, are you really going to beat Miami or OKC at that game? I see the answer to that as firmly "no".

    It's one of the main reasons a team like Memphis is building the way they are. They could've kept Gay, who gives them that dimension a bit, but instead opted to get even "slower" with Prince, emphasizing their strengths even more (yes I know there were money issues largely at the core of things, but I think there were basketball issues too, in terms of them hoping a downgrade would be a bit better for on-court chemistry). Why? Because the best chance a team will have to beat Miami (or OKC) will be to exploit their weaknesses, not out-do their strengths.

    Even San Antonio, which emphasizes offense a lot more than they used to, still depends to a large degree on having an inside-out game initiated by Duncan and even a guy like Diaw.
    Last edited by white men can't jump; Fri Apr 19, 2013, 12:39 PM.

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    • #32
      NoPropsneeded wrote: View Post
      Look at San Antonio and Memphis. They are much more effective teams. Teams with star traditional bigs always have a better chance of winning a championship, history has prove that time and time again. I don't care what "era" it is, a traditional franchise big is very hard to come by these days. Valanciunas can dominate his position more than James Harden can, simply because he is bigger and more skilled than most players at his position. Where as for Harden, there are like 10 other guys who can do whatever he can do.
      Problem is, how many of those guys are playing for the Raptors right now?

      The NBA is obviously NOW, a point guard league, but to be successful, you need an assortment of wings, and having Harden, than down the road Rudy Gay, would be an example of elite. Far better than our current duo of Derozan/Gay.

      Derozan than becomes expendable, package Derozan with Bargnani, possibly throw in Ross as a sweetener (Ross and Derozan not getting minutes with Harden at two, Rudy at 3, Fields comes in as a balance 2/3), which allows some significant assets in return such as a centre, a pick, a prospect, etc.

      Although, I'm on the board of having no MAJOR changes in the off-season, so everything I said is contradictory lol
      Last edited by ReubenJRD; Fri Apr 19, 2013, 01:06 PM.

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      • #33
        Mediumcore wrote: View Post
        20 & 10 doesn't happen without demanding the ball in the post. Likely not going to happen unless DeMar or Gay and possibly both are traded. As far as attracting super stars goes...in today's NBA you have a better chance of attracting free agent super stars by having their friends on your team, not by having and established player on your team, imo. Just ask Mark Cuban how easy it's been to get a super star running mate for Dirk. Imo, the only way to get a super star in Toronto is via trade or draft.
        That is right, but Duncan doesnt have the ball in his hands as much as TP or Manu does. I havent looked at the stats but i m pretty sure Duncan gets his points not just on post-ups and mid-range, but from putbacks, offensive rebounds, drop-passes and botched plays where as TP and Manu would have the bulk of their points when the ball is in their hands, much like Harden.

        the superfriends theory is true as well, but i do think players also consider how much of a fit they will be in an environment that theyre potentially coming in. like when Carmelo went to new york, he knew that having amare there with him would compliment his game and at the same time not affect his ability to control the perimeter. i just think that players would be more inclined to play with JV since he controls the middle rather than with Harden who would have the ball in his hands most of the time.

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        • #34
          TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
          That is right, but Duncan doesnt have the ball in his hands as much as TP or Manu does. I havent looked at the stats but i m pretty sure Duncan gets his points not just on post-ups and mid-range, but from putbacks, offensive rebounds, drop-passes and botched plays where as TP and Manu would have the bulk of their points when the ball is in their hands, much like Harden.

          the superfriends theory is true as well, but i do think players also consider how much of a fit they will be in an environment that theyre potentially coming in. like when Carmelo went to new york, he knew that having amare there with him would compliment his game and at the same time not affect his ability to control the perimeter. i just think that players would be more inclined to play with JV since he controls the middle rather than with Harden who would have the ball in his hands most of the time.
          Harden is actually an underrated play-maker. Makes plays for his teammates, especially when he was in OKC WHEN he was surrounded by superstar players; he played the combo guard game. That's why so many are STILL to this point disappointed in the fact that Harden was traded, his ability to take the play-making responsibilities off of Westbrook, and incredible scoring, was the intangible for that team to take a championship over Miami.

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          • #35
            RaptorReuben wrote: View Post
            Harden is actually an underrated play-maker. Makes plays for his teammates, especially when he was in OKC WHEN he was surrounded by superstar players; he played the combo guard game. That's why so many are STILL to this point disappointed in the fact that Harden was traded, his ability to take the play-making responsibilities off of Westbrook, and incredible scoring, was the intangible for that team to take a championship over Miami.
            I don't think he was ever underrated as a playmaker; e.g. I've heard and read many times in the last OKC-years that Harden was their best passer.

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            • #36
              TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
              That is right, but Duncan doesnt have the ball in his hands as much as TP or Manu does. I havent looked at the stats but i m pretty sure Duncan gets his points not just on post-ups and mid-range, but from putbacks, offensive rebounds, drop-passes and botched plays where as TP and Manu would have the bulk of their points when the ball is in their hands, much like Harden.

              the superfriends theory is true as well, but i do think players also consider how much of a fit they will be in an environment that theyre potentially coming in. like when Carmelo went to new york, he knew that having amare there with him would compliment his game and at the same time not affect his ability to control the perimeter. i just think that players would be more inclined to play with JV since he controls the middle rather than with Harden who would have the ball in his hands most of the time.
              I agree that you don't average 20 points a game strictly on having plays run for you, especially if you're a big. However my point was just that I don't see JV as a 20 point player every night, in this league without having quite a few touches in the post like what Duncan gets. And that is especially the case with two guys like DeMar and Rudy on the same team whom are high volume shooters. There's only so many touches to go around.

              If it's between either JV or Harden as to whom would attract more star talent to the Raptors, in my mind it's no question that Harden would more so than JV.

              I'm still on the fence about whether I would have done that trade or not. Harden is a proven franchise talent where as JV is showing signs that he might be, but has a much longer way to go to get to that level.

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              • #37
                wow...I don't know what I think of this. I mean Harden will likely be a perennial all star and does so many things extremely well.

                However JV has the potential to be a perennial all star...

                I don't think I can take a side on this and really say what the better move would have been.
                For still frame photograph of me reading the DeRozan thread please refer to my avatar

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                • #38
                  Rapstor4Life wrote: View Post
                  JV is too rare to give up At 20 he already has more offensive tools than Dwight Howard.. Kid is legit.
                  I think I have more offensive tools than Dwight Howard
                  For still frame photograph of me reading the DeRozan thread please refer to my avatar

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                  • #39
                    thead wrote: View Post
                    wow...I don't know what I think of this. I mean Harden will likely be a perennial all star and does so many things extremely well.

                    However JV has the potential to be a perennial all star...

                    I don't think I can take a side on this and really say what the better move would have been.
                    It is tough.

                    I don't think you will be able to make that decision without hindsight in a couple of years time.... unless you aren't a fan of delayed gratification in which case the trade should have been taken.

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                    • #40
                      Matt52 wrote: View Post
                      It is tough.

                      I don't think you will be able to make that decision without hindsight in a couple of years time.... unless you aren't a fan of delayed gratification in which case the trade should have been taken.
                      The drum I've been beating lately is the need to get older and more experienced. So wanting to keep JV really conflicts with that. That being said I would have traded every other player on this roster all the picks and some cash to boot to land Harden
                      For still frame photograph of me reading the DeRozan thread please refer to my avatar

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                      • #41
                        thead wrote: View Post
                        The drum I've been beating lately is the need to get older and more experienced. So wanting to keep JV really conflicts with that. That being said I would have traded every other player on this roster all the picks and some cash to boot to land Harden
                        No doubt and no question.

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                        • #42
                          Even with hindsight in a few years, the problem of course is that we don't know what kind of deal was on the table and who else was involved. Considering gm's can't use hindsight to make deals and considering the scarcity and value of centers who are a B+ on both ends of the floor and the good chance (even before the season for those of us who followed JV last year) that JV is going to be that (and maybe more) I will never blame Colangelo for not taking this deal, regardless of who else was involved and the insights hindsights will give us in a couple of years.

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                          • #43
                            I'm floored by the replies here. Jonas is a nice piece, a cornerstone to build around even. But Harden is a top 10 NBA talent. He's the exact player that Raptors fans think wouldn't consider our franchise in free agency. Harden is a going to be an all-nba caliber player for the next 5 years AT LEAST. He's a franchise player. Jonas is a great piece, but he's not a franchise player. Harden is one of the 10 to 12 guys in the league that can realistically be the best player on a championship team. He's a transcendent play maker, not a project (which Jonas still is despite his encouraging play as a rookie). Harden is the ideal guy for today's NBA: ball handling, get to the rim, get to the line, solid outside shot. Unless we are talking about the best big-man in the game (JV is not close), then it's a no brainer to pull the trigger for Harden.

                            Playing off Simmons' "trade value" idea, by rejecting a Harden for JV trade straight away with no follow up, you are essentially saying that Jonas is one of the top 10 most valuable assets in the entire league. It's utter nonsense.

                            Please don't interpret this as a negative reflection on Big Val. I love the guy's hustle, developing skill set, his mindset and approach. But what has the man done to be considered a all-NBA talent or the centerpiece of a champion? Nothing.

                            It's unbelievable that 21 people (and counting!) voted to keep JV instead of acquiring Harden.
                            Last edited by NoBan; Fri Apr 19, 2013, 06:07 PM.

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                            • #44
                              NoBan wrote: View Post
                              I'm floored by the replies here. Jonas is a nice piece, a cornerstone to build around even. But Harden is a top 10 NBA talent. He's the exact player that Raptors fans think wouldn't consider our franchise in free agency. Harden is a going to be an all-nba caliber player for the next 5 years AT LEAST. He's a franchise player. Jonas is a great piece, but he's not a franchise player. Harden is one of the 10 to 12 guys in the league that can realistically be the best player on a championship team. He's a transcendent play maker, not a project (which Jonas still is despite his encouraging play as a rookie). Harden is the ideal guy for today's NBA: ball handling, get to the rim, get to the line, solid outside shot. Unless we are talking about the best big-man in the game (JV is not close), then it's a no brainer to pull the trigger for Harden.

                              Playing off Simmons' "trade value" idea, by rejecting a Harden for JV trade straight away with no follow up, you are essentially saying that Jonas is one of the top 10 most valuable assets in the entire league. It's utter nonsense.

                              Please don't interpret this as a negative reflection on Big Val. I love the guy's hustle, developing skill set, his mindset and approach. But what has the man done to be considered a all-NBA talent or the centerpiece of a champion? Nothing.

                              It's unbelievable that 21 people (and counting!) voted to keep JV instead of acquiring Harden.
                              The point is that Harden was not an all-nba calliber player at the time. He was a fantastic 6th man on a fantastic Thunder team and he could probably start for the majority of NBA teams. But his ability to be a max player? That did not become evident until this season. Houston took a gamble, and it paid off. But it was still a gamble.

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                              • #45
                                NoBan wrote: View Post
                                I'm floored by the replies here. Jonas is a nice piece, a cornerstone to build around even. But Harden is a top 10 NBA talent. He's the exact player that Raptors fans think wouldn't consider our franchise in free agency. Harden is a going to be an all-nba caliber player for the next 5 years AT LEAST. He's a franchise player. Jonas is a great piece, but he's not a franchise player. Harden is one of the 10 to 12 guys in the league that can realistically be the best player on a championship team. He's a transcendent play maker, not a project (which Jonas still is despite his encouraging play as a rookie). Harden is the ideal guy for today's NBA: ball handling, get to the rim, get to the line, solid outside shot. Unless we are talking about the best big-man in the game (JV is not close), then it's a no brainer to pull the trigger for Harden.

                                Playing off Simmons' "trade value" idea, by rejecting a Harden for JV trade straight away with no follow up, you are essentially saying that Jonas is one of the top 10 most valuable assets in the entire league. It's utter nonsense.

                                Please don't interpret this as a negative reflection on Big Val. I love the guy's hustle, developing skill set, his mindset and approach. But what has the man done to be considered a all-NBA talent or the centerpiece of a champion? Nothing.

                                It's unbelievable that 21 people (and counting!) voted to keep JV instead of acquiring Harden.
                                You can't simply evaluate on current talent comparisons alone. You have to consider a variety of factors, such as:

                                - age
                                - potential
                                - salary
                                - positional scarcity
                                - Raptors current roster (at time of trade)
                                - what else did OKC request in addition to JV (since it's doubtful that they would have accepted a straight-up trade)

                                I personally felt that Harden was a little overrated, especially playing in the shadow of Durant & Westbrook in OKC. He was looking for a huge salary increase and scoring wings are a lot more plentiful than traditional C's who have the potential to become a force at both ends of the court.

                                I gladly would have done a DeRozan & future 1st round pick deal for Harden, however, since DeRozan was also in-line for a big raise.
                                Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Fri Apr 19, 2013, 06:16 PM.

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