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Bill Simmons: NBA Trade Value

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  • #46
    Marz wrote: View Post
    The point is that Harden was not an all-nba calliber player at the time. He was a fantastic 6th man on a fantastic Thunder team and he could probably start for the majority of NBA teams. But his ability to be a max player? That did not become evident until this season. Houston took a gamble, and it paid off. But it was still a gamble.
    Ahem.

    Sure, Harden was not an "all-NBA calibre player" at the time.

    But I haven't seen anyone point out that JV had not played a single NBA game at the same point.

    Talent > Potential.
    Twitter - @thekid_it

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    • #47
      CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
      You can't simply evaluate on current talent comparisons alone. You have to consider a variety of factors, such as:

      - age
      - potential
      - salary
      - positional scarcity
      - Raptors current roster (at time of trade)
      - what else did OKC request in addition to JV (since it's doubtful that they would have accepted a straight-up trade)

      I personally felt that Harden was a little overrated, especially playing in the shadow of Durant & Westbrook in OKC. He was looking for a huge salary increase and scoring wings are a lot more plentiful than traditional C's who have the potential to become a force at both ends of the court.

      I gladly would have done a DeRozan & future 1st round pick deal for Harden, however, since DeRozan was also in-line for a big raise.
      Don't forget the all-important judgment of gauging the likelihood of reaching potential. I can't think of a guy I trust to reach his potential more.

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      • #48
        Soft Euro wrote: View Post
        I don't think he was ever underrated as a playmaker; e.g. I've heard and read many times in the last OKC-years that Harden was their best passer.
        To counter both our arguments though, it doesn't mean much when the team's second best passer reigns from Durant, and or Westbrook.
        Twitter: @ReubenJRD NBA, Raptors writer for Daily Hive Vancouver, Toronto.

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        • #49
          Marz wrote: View Post
          The point is that Harden was not an all-nba calliber player at the time. He was a fantastic 6th man on a fantastic Thunder team and he could probably start for the majority of NBA teams. But his ability to be a max player? That did not become evident until this season. Houston took a gamble, and it paid off. But it was still a gamble.


          You're right that Harden cemented his status as NBA superstar this season. But making the comparison during last offseason:

          Harden: Best player in series vs San Antonio and vs LA in last playoffs.
          JV: Zero NBA games played.

          CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
          - age
          - potential
          - salary
          - positional scarcity
          - Raptors current roster (at time of trade)
          - what else did OKC request in addition to JV (since it's doubtful that they would have accepted a straight-up trade)
          I still favour Harden.

          Age: Both young enough to play 2 contracts for the team

          Potential: Is JV's potential really "best player on a champion"? Because Hardens' is and was at the time. If we're talking best case scenario, ceiling... Harden's potential is DWade (with better shooting and less D) and JV's is a slightly better Roy Hibbert. Both awesome talents and desirable players, but Harden wins on potential, especially when you factor in that Harden's so much closer to reaching said potential.

          Salary: JV wins hands down with his rookie deal. But once you factor in the willingness to pay Rudy $18 Mil, it's eyebrow raising time.

          Positional Scarcity: Isn't this why Detroit took Darko over Carmelo? or the Bucks going for Bogut over Williams/Paul?

          Raptors current roster: You talkin about Demar?

          What else OCK wanted: Valid, but it's unacceptable that we didn't even inquire.






          You guys are right, it's not as cut and dry as looking at Harden's production this year. But, even removing hindsight, i maintain that it's still pretty obvious we should have pulled the trigger,

          Comment


          • #50
            Marz wrote: View Post
            The point is that Harden was not an all-nba calliber player at the time. He was a fantastic 6th man on a fantastic Thunder team and he could probably start for the majority of NBA teams. But his ability to be a max player? That did not become evident until this season. Houston took a gamble, and it paid off. But it was still a gamble.
            Meh. Many people who watched Harden saw a Ginobli caliber shooting guard playing behind two ball dominant perimeter players. He put up great numbers and had a very big impact despite limited touches and clearly looked like one of the best 2 guards in the league. Gamble or not, his talent was obvious.

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            • #51
              Marz wrote: View Post
              The point is that Harden was not an all-nba calliber player at the time. He was a fantastic 6th man on a fantastic Thunder team and he could probably start for the majority of NBA teams. But his ability to be a max player? That did not become evident until this season. Houston took a gamble, and it paid off. But it was still a gamble.

              From many statistical stand points he was already a franchise calibre player just stuck playing behind 2 (or atleast one) other franchise calibre players - so I imagine Morey didn't feel it was much of a gamble at all.

              I'm not sure how I would have felt about the trade (had it happened) at the time myself. But I don't know how one can argue the 'unkowns' around Harden was a reason to not to make a trade given he'd atleast played 3 years of NBA ball while Jonas played none. If something being unknown or uncertain was a rational, trading Jonas should have been a given.

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              • #52
                NoBan wrote: View Post
                You're right that Harden cemented his status as NBA superstar this season. But making the comparison during last offseason:

                Harden: Best player in series vs San Antonio and vs LA in last playoffs.
                JV: Zero NBA games played.



                I still favour Harden.

                Age: Both young enough to play 2 contracts for the team

                Potential: Is JV's potential really "best player on a champion"? Because Hardens' is and was at the time. If we're talking best case scenario, ceiling... Harden's potential is DWade (with better shooting and less D) and JV's is a slightly better Roy Hibbert. Both awesome talents and desirable players, but Harden wins on potential, especially when you factor in that Harden's so much closer to reaching said potential.

                Salary: JV wins hands down with his rookie deal. But once you factor in the willingness to pay Rudy $18 Mil, it's eyebrow raising time.

                Positional Scarcity: Isn't this why Detroit took Darko over Carmelo? or the Bucks going for Bogut over Williams/Paul?

                Raptors current roster: You talkin about Demar?

                What else OCK wanted: Valid, but it's unacceptable that we didn't even inquire.






                You guys are right, it's not as cut and dry as looking at Harden's production this year. But, even removing hindsight, i maintain that it's still pretty obvious we should have pulled the trigger,

                Harden was good in playoffs last season but hardly best player. Outside of game 2 vs. San Antonio (which OKC lost) he was good but nothing spectacular. Vs LAL, nothing spectacular (35.8% shooting?). Literally pooped the bed vs. Miami.


                The bold is ludicrous. JV just put up better numbers than Hibberts 2nd year in the league and Hibbert was 4 years older at the time. Then you factor in JV coming from a country where their religion is basketball.


                You definitely have a point on Harden known to be a VERY good NBA player whereas JV had played 0 games.



                Still think you need to wait a couple of seasons to see how JV plays out unless one is all about instant gratification in which case the Harden deal should have been made.

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                • #53
                  Matt52 wrote: View Post
                  You definitely have a point on Harden known to be a VERY good NBA player whereas JV had played 0 games.

                  Still think you need to wait a couple of seasons to see how JV plays out unless one is all about instant gratification in which case the Harden deal should have been made.
                  What move has BC made over the past season that wasn't about instant gratification?
                  your pal,
                  ebrian

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                  • #54
                    ebrian wrote: View Post
                    What move has BC made over the past season that wasn't about instant gratification?

                    How is that relevant? Just so we are clear, my days of defending BC are over. I want him gone. Without knowing what JV becomes it really is hard to make a valid judgement on this supposed trade, that is just my opinion.

                    What would heinz say right now? Hmmmm.... Just because you go bareback with 9 strippers doesn't mean you shouldn't get credit for wrapping it on the 10th one.

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                    • #55
                      Looking at the trade made Houston got Harden and filler (if I remember correctly Lazar was bought out). OKC gave up the best player, but every asset they received was a winner. They got a lottery pick, Martin, a quality rookie, etc.

                      I have a hard time believing that the Raptors would have gotten anything other than Harden worth keeping, BUT to make the trade they would have had to move a number of quality pieces. This isn't a player for player trade. It would have meant an immediate rebuild around Harden and likely (throws up in mouth) Bargnani. Do you think Jose and ED gets the Raps Harden? I don't. One thing we all know BC isn't into long term. Like I said earlier, I would take a serious hard look but if I believe in JV, Demar, and have a Lowry trade in my back pocket I go that route.

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                      • #56
                        Matt52 wrote: View Post
                        How is that relevant? Just so we are clear, my days of defending BC are over. I want him gone. Without knowing what JV becomes it really is hard to make a valid judgement on this supposed trade, that is just my opinion.

                        What would heinz say right now? Hmmmm.... Just because you go bareback with 9 strippers doesn't mean you shouldn't get credit for wrapping it on the 10th one.
                        I know you're not defending BC. But how is it not relevant? You just said you wouldn't make this trade unless you cared only about instant gratification, but you supported the Rudy Gay trade, correct? It's relevant because we're talking about what BC should have done. Every move this season has been about instant gratification, but the best move he could have done was not only rebuffed, the guy didn't even consider it.
                        your pal,
                        ebrian

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                        • #57
                          In hindsight knowing this deal did not get done explains more why BC was willing to trade for Rudy Gay. He had to make up for not trading for Harden.
                          your pal,
                          ebrian

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                          • #58
                            Just musing here, but it would have been the steal of the century if BC had traded JV + AB for Harden plus trade ballast.

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                            • #59
                              definitely become a franchise-making top ten player, and a better one than harden who will definitely be ranked above him on the majority of future versions of such lists for the rest of their respective careers.

                              i do believe it is a possibility this could become the case, but if you believe it to be an inevitable certainty based on the season we just watched than i dunno what to tell you. you are probably an insane homer i guess.

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                              • #60
                                ebrian wrote: View Post
                                I know you're not defending BC. But how is it not relevant? You just said you wouldn't make this trade unless you cared only about instant gratification, but you supported the Rudy Gay trade, correct? It's relevant because we're talking about what BC should have done. Every move this season has been about instant gratification, but the best move he could have done was not only rebuffed, the guy didn't even consider it.
                                I did support the Gay trade. Although last year when I was going on and on about it, it was with the idea of Bargnani being what was always hoped for. I don't think the Raptors were going to get a more talented player via free agency and I don't think the assets required to get Gay were extreme. Last year no one thought Calderon, Davis, and a 2nd rd pick would get the guy. Sure his contract sucks but if he made Deng/Granger money no one would bat an eye.

                                I'm not sure this was the best move. Harden wasn't known to be what he has become. JV wasn't known about anything NBA related. However the potential for a dominant C is more alluring than Harden - even now knowing how all has panned out with Harden.

                                I still think any real indication of how this plays out won't be known for a couple of years.
                                Last edited by mcHAPPY; Sat Apr 20th, 2013, 06:58 AM.

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