Bill Simmons: NBA Trade Value

[white men can't jump]

I was thinking Alonzo too but i haven't seen enough of him to really make a comparison. Robert parish, i just kinda randomly threw out there

It's hard to find a good comparison among old guys...because when you go to look for highlights of old bigs, it's mostly blocks and dunks. Still, for intensity and variety of skills I think Mourning is a good comparison. Mourning was quicker and a bit shorter, with more range, but by his 5th or 6th year, he had settled into really just playing C, whereas he was a F/C before that. So it's not a perfect comparison by any means.

Like I said, JV's bigger and a bit smoother than Mourning (close to the basket), so maybe throw in some Pau qualities, and JV also definitely knows how to use his size, much like Marc or Bynum.

[torch19]

After watching a full season of Jonas, I would say he reminds me of Andrew Bynum in some ways -- good lane presence, keeps hands up, uses elbows well; but with more finesse & mobility that reminds me of Pau Gasol, especially with the lefty hooks. Similar to those two guys, Valanciunas sags off when guarding the pick & roll because of the lack of mobility -- so guards tend to go around him & he tries to make up with his length.

He's a real post presence on the block which is very promising but defensively, he struggles against smaller guards & especially in pick and roll coverage. I mentioned Bynum first since Valanciunas is not as skilled as Gasol (yet...?) in terms of passing, finesse. But his ability to hit mid range jumpers & play more in the high post is the reason why I mentioned Gasol soon after.

Either way, I think those are 2 good comparables & which is why I'm very high on Jonas after his first season -- at 20 years old. Once he bulks up, slow down his pace, develop more skills & react better on rotations, I have full confidence that he will be putting up all-star center numbers.

I think he will be an all-star either on his 4th year or soon after his rookie deal expires PROVIDED the Raptors are in the playoff chase unless he regresses dramatically -- which I don't think will happen barring injuries.

[NoPropsneeded]

I also don't think Hibbert is a very good comparison. You also have to consider things like motor and development. I don't like the Parish comparison either. His numbers are deceptive because of how dominant Boston was, but he was not the guy you went to for a play in the post.

Trying to think of a comparison for Jonas is hard. He's got a lot of qualities that make you think of different bigs. For me, one guy he reminds me of, and I think in many ways is a good comparison, is Alonzo Mourning, who frankly in his prime would be the 2nd best C today behind a healthy Howard. A big who plays with a lot of intensity. Provides lane intimidation both with strength and length. Rebounds the ball. Has a versatile offensive game where he can both backdown and face up. I think both their games have a good mix of strength, finesse and athleticisim, with JV having probably a bit more finesse and a bit less athleticisim, but also having more size. I see that comparison increasingly becoming JV's worst case in my eyes.

I was thinking Alonzo too but i haven't seen enough of him to really make a comparison. Robert parish, i just kinda randomly threw out there

[Marz]

Good point. I made the leap to "hung up" based on Simmons' phrasing. I still think it's ridiculous to take the centrepiece of a potential franchise shifting trade off the table without significant internal deliberation. Again, perhaps those discussions did take place, but Simmons' presentation suggests the opposite, and BC hasn't exactly earned the benefit of the doubt based on track record.

Well let's look at it this way: the Raptors weren't the only one to "quickly rebuff" Sam Presti. The Wizards are another one.

A person with knowledge of Oklahoma City’s interest in Beal said the Wizards’ decision to hold on to Beal made sense because teams are often willing to trade draft picks but are more inclined to keep players once they’ve been selected.

Source: http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2...ington-wizards

[mountio]

Let's nail down a comp for best-case-scenario JV. I'm thinking the skill set needs to be similar to what I mentioned above:

DPOY candidacy (Noah, Gasol?)
Great screen and roller (much less athletic Amare?)
Double team necessity in low post (Big Al?)

Am I missing a major piece of the skill set?

Again, this isn't "most likely", it's "very best" case scenario. It's gotta be somebody with a ton of tools but not somebody that's gonna be top 3-5 MVP (prime Howard is too optimistic, imo). There's a lot of guys here that know NBA history better than me, anybody got a decent comp?

I think its the Gasol bros. Marc is the closest .. his game also has some similarities to Pau also. I think Marc is the most likely upside (which is pretty damn good btw .. hes the best center in the game right now).

Not sure his defense will ever get as good as Marc's .. but his ability to bang is similar. He also has a better jump shooting touch and is arguably a better PNR guy. Marc's all around game is obviously very superior today .. but in terms of a comp, I think thats the best one.

[Soft Euro]

Translation: Oh ya, well how do you know??



Translation: I dont have a counterpoint beyond my first reply, so I'm withdrawing.



I think you can do better my friend.

You just make a presumptuous statement without providing any evidence and somehow want me to provide the evidence to the contrary because I ask for evidence. I'm not going to take the trouble; it's like arguing with people who claim there is a giant green smurf who created the universe and expect the others to disprove it. It's unreasonable.

[white men can't jump]

I also don't think Hibbert is a very good comparison. You also have to consider things like motor and development. I don't like the Parish comparison either. His numbers are deceptive because of how dominant Boston was, but he was not the guy you went to for a play in the post.

Trying to think of a comparison for Jonas is hard. He's got a lot of qualities that make you think of different bigs. For me, one guy he reminds me of, and I think in many ways is a good comparison, is Alonzo Mourning, who frankly in his prime would be the 2nd best C today behind a healthy Howard. A big who plays with a lot of intensity. Provides lane intimidation both with strength and length. Rebounds the ball. Has a versatile offensive game where he can both backdown and face up. I think both their games have a good mix of strength, finesse and athleticisim, with JV having probably a bit more finesse and a bit less athleticisim, but also having more size. I see that comparison increasingly becoming JV's worst case in my eyes.

[NoPropsneeded]

Let's nail down a comp for best-case-scenario JV. I'm thinking the skill set needs to be similar to what I mentioned above:

DPOY candidacy (Noah, Gasol?)
Great screen and roller (much less athletic Amare?)
Double team necessity in low post (Big Al?)

Am I missing a major piece of the skill set?

Again, this isn't "most likely", it's "very best" case scenario. It's gotta be somebody with a ton of tools but not somebody that's gonna be top 3-5 MVP (prime Howard is too optimistic, imo). There's a lot of guys here that know NBA history better than me, anybody got a decent comp?

Robert Parish?

[NoBan]

Hibbert is a former all-star who averaged 12pts on 44.8% shooting with 11 field goal attempts per game, 8rebs, and 2.6blks per game in 28.9mpg in his fifth year in the league at 26 years of age.

Valanciuanas is a rookie who averaged 8.9pts on 55.7% shooting with 6 field goal attempts per game, 6rebs, and 1.3blks per game in 23.9mpg in his first year in the league at 20 years of age.

I'm not ready to put Jonas in Shaq/Timmy/KG territory but I am definitely not ready to limit his ceiling to Roy Hibbert.

Let's nail down a comp for best-case-scenario JV. I'm thinking the skill set needs to be similar to what I mentioned above:

DPOY candidacy (Noah, Gasol?)
Great screen and roller (much less athletic Amare?)
Double team necessity in low post (Big Al?)

Am I missing a major piece of the skill set?

Again, this isn't "most likely", it's "very best" case scenario. It's gotta be somebody with a ton of tools but not somebody that's gonna be top 3-5 MVP (prime Howard is too optimistic, imo). There's a lot of guys here that know NBA history better than me, anybody got a decent comp?

[mcHAPPY]

I struggled for a comp on Jonas. I wanted a low post big man with potential DPOY, and chose Hibbert off top of head.

But I believe youre wrong to call the comp "ludicrous". In terms of Jonas' ceiling, I think with it's a few all star appearances, blossoming into a positional genius/defensive wrecking machine, a must double team down low, with the added element of being a devastating roller in the PNR. Other than the PNR part, that is where Hibbert's at right now. That was my line of thinking with the comp. Hibbert's a DPOY candidate and all star... Jonas' best case scenario/ceiling isn't beyond that. Jonas isn't going into Shaq/Timmy/KG territory.

Hibbert is a former all-star who averaged 12pts on 44.8% shooting with 11 field goal attempts per game, 8rebs, and 2.6blks per game in 28.9mpg in his fifth year in the league at 26 years of age.


Valanciuanas is a rookie who averaged 8.9pts on 55.7% shooting with 6 field goal attempts per game, 6rebs, and 1.3blks per game in 23.9mpg in his first year in the league at 20 years of age.



I'm not ready to put Jonas in Shaq/Timmy/KG territory but I am definitely not ready to limit his ceiling to Roy Hibbert.

[NoBan]

Yeah, because Simmons is not prone to any hyperbole...

lol, you got me there.

[white men can't jump]

Good point. I made the leap to "hung up" based on Simmons' phrasing. I still think it's ridiculous to take the centrepiece of a potential franchise shifting trade off the table without significant internal deliberation. Again, perhaps those discussions did take place, but Simmons' presentation suggests the opposite, and BC hasn't exactly earned the benefit of the doubt based on track record.

Yeah, because Simmons is not prone to any hyperbole...

If I had to take a hunch, just for fun, BC was not willing to give up enough assets.
-First off, no deal would've been just for JV. If you look at what OKC got, beyond Martin and Lamb, they got 3 draft picks (2 1st rders)
-Maybe Demar and Ross would've been enough talent-wise, but maybe he didn't want to give up both? Although I think he would've. My guess here is if he was giving up Ross, he didn't want to give up 2-3 draft picks as well.
-And also Houston took back some garbage for them too, as well as Martin supplying big time cap relief. More than Jose would have, the only piece of that sort Toronto had. Maybe Toronto couldn't offer as many "pros" as Houston, even if they had the best piece to start a deal with. They didn't have the desire to take back Cole Aldrich, Lazar Hayward and Daequan Cook.

....So...
-OKC traded 4 for 2...creating roster flexibility.
-Houston gave them massive cap relief.
-Houston gave them 2 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder.
-Talent-wise for OKC, it's pretty similar for the one year Martin is around.

-My best guess for the JV centred deal is that it was probably Jose + JV + Ross + a 1st rd pick for the same crap they sent to Houston. They would've wanted to clear some money, get a young asset to replace Harden for the future, get at least a shooter to play with Durant and Westbrook on the floor (something Jose could do), and take only one 1st rd pick instead of Houston's 2 because of JV's addition to the deal. Am I making shit up completely? Yes. But again, looking at the actual trade that happened, it's clear that OKC was looking for a lot more than one prospect back.

[NoBan]

These are the same people? Got anything to back that up?

Translation: Oh ya, well how do you know??

I don't think it's necessary to reasonably challenge an unreasonable argument.

Translation: I dont have a counterpoint beyond my first reply, so I'm withdrawing.



I think you can do better my friend.

[NoBan]

On the bold. Who says this happened? The story says Presti got rebuffed quickly when asking about JV. That doesn't mean Bryan didn't quickly say "no way in hell on JV. would you be interested in x, y or z?", and Presti wasn't so talks ended.

Good point. I made the leap to "hung up" based on Simmons' phrasing. I still think it's ridiculous to take the centrepiece of a potential franchise shifting trade off the table without significant internal deliberation. Again, perhaps those discussions did take place, but Simmons' presentation suggests the opposite, and BC hasn't exactly earned the benefit of the doubt based on track record.

[Soft Euro]

We both know there's a very common refrain among raps fans that american stars dont want to play for our team for non-basketball reasons (with the implication that this is somehow wrong or unfair).

Given the emphatic majority in the poll in this thread, it's reasonable to assume a rather significant overlap.

If you'd like to reasonably challenge these statements, please do so. The post I've quoted added nothing to the discussion.

I don't think it's necessary to reasonably challenge an unreasonable argument.