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Bill Simmons: NBA Trade Value

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  • TheGloveinRapsUniform
    replied
    Pass. Although Harden is definitely better than JV (at the moment), it is easier to build a core around JV.

    Once JV polishes his game and averages 20-10, it would be easier to get superstars to come and play with him. One, because he is not a volume scorer, he wont need 20-30 shots a game since he will be working closer to the basket. its easier to acquire perimeter guys and combine them with bigmen rather than finding big men and combining them with perimeter players. Why? Because big men do not control the ball as much as perimeter guys. Big men go with the flow, so to speak and they dont demand. Its better to have an established big man on your team then build the team around him.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mediumcore
    replied
    Wow, this is a tough trade to guage. Especially back then when nobody knew if Harden would succeed in a starting role and when nobody knew if JV was for real or a bust.

    On the one hand Harden is a rare talent that projects to be the best SG in the league possibly as early as next year with Kobe out and Wade constantly battling injuries...that first team all NBA squad. And he has the ability to make players around him better as well. He's taken Houston into the playoffs in his first year without a tonne of talent around him.

    On the other hand, JV has shown signs that he could be the real deal. I don't see him as a Tim Duncan type big that is going to dominate his position night in and out, but it's quite possible he could be a 15 & 10 centre in this league which is top notch. It's also true that good bigs are much harder to come by than guards and wings.

    Tough call.

    Leave a comment:


  • isaacthompson
    replied
    I took a long time to decide on this one, but I figure I would do it. Trades based off of potential of a certain player are soso hard to determine whether you're winning the trade or not.

    I'm more of a guy that figures talent over potential would better serve the team. JV does have a lot of upside, and I'm really excited to see what he provides us in the future...

    I understand the arguments that no one knew if Harden would ever reach star status, buuuut at the same time, everyone knew Harden was a starting-calibre player in OKC, he just chose to anchor the second unit. Him alongside Rudy in the starting lineup would be spectacular.

    Addressing the starting lineup issues this would cause...we could go small for the time being and have:

    Lowry
    Harden
    DeRozan
    Gay
    Amir

    Amir played a lot of center during the when-Bargs-was-actually-healthy era, so I think he's perfectly capable of filling that hole for an extended period of time. This lineup has it all, from shooting to athleticism, and Lowry/Harden's combined playmaking ability would do wonders for the offense.

    Eventually going small would hurt us when playing teams that have fundamental bigs, especially PF's around the league that take Rudy down in the post. In this case, we could finally package DeMar and receive a capable starting center. (I say capable because people will say Gray will do just fine, which is completely not true). Possible returns could be Andrew Bogut, or Pekovic (my dream) for DeMar and a pick. Insert your own player as well. The lineup would then form into:

    Lowry
    Harden
    Gay
    Amir
    ???

    Playoffs.
    Last edited by isaacthompson; Fri Apr 19, 2013, 09:58 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • planetmars
    replied
    As ebrian noted, this was the trade:

    James Harden traded by the Oklahoma City Thunder with Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to the Houston Rockets for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, a future 1st round draft pick, a future 1st round draft pick and a future 2nd round draft pick.

    The equivalent haul in my opinion would have been:

    Jeremy Lamb == Terrence Ross (first round from 2012)
    Kevin Martin == Jose Calderon (large expiring contract)
    2nd round pick == Toronto's 2013 2nd round pick
    1st round (top 20 protection) == ??
    1st round (top 3/playoff protected) == ??

    The two first's are difficult since the Raptors had none to offer. But I would imagine that OKC would have taken JV instead as that is what they wanted.

    Giving up JV/Ross/Jose/2nd rounder for Harden seems like a lot, and I'm glad we didn't do it. Harden at that time was only a 6th man in OKC and was never given a chance to lead.. he proved everyone wrong but that was still a gamble at that time.

    Leave a comment:


  • mcHAPPY
    replied
    ebrian wrote: View Post
    In all seriousness, even if these two were the flagships of the trade, let's take a look at what the trade consisted of:

    James Harden traded by the Oklahoma City Thunder with Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to the Houston Rockets for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, a future 1st round draft pick, a future 1st round draft pick and a future 2nd round draft pick.

    I would translate that into:

    James Harden
    Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook, Lazar Hayward
    for
    Terrence Ross
    DeMar DeRozan
    Jonas Valanciunas
    future 1st round pick (would they take Ed Davis?)
    future 2nd round pick (would they take Quincy Acy?)


    So now you're looking at this opening day roster:

    PG: Lowry, Calderon, Lucas
    SG: James Harden, Daequan Cook
    SF: Landry Fields, Alan Anderson, Lazar Hayward, Linas Kleiza, Dominic McGuire
    PF: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson
    C: Aaron Gray, Cole Aldrich

    I don't know if this team is better than what we have today, although the future is slightly less bleak from a cap standpoint. This team doesn't make the playoffs so OKC still gets our 2013 pick. The only thing from a hindsight perspective is maybe if they didn't ask for Terrence Ross (or if we had drafted Andre Drummond instead of Ross and they didn't ask for Drummond). I can't imagine this team playing much defense but it'd certainly be a fun team to watch. Harden is 23 with a max contract that is easily more attractive than Rudy Gay's. Landry Fields and Linas Kleiza were already hurt at the start of the season. The 2012-2013 season won't be pretty.

    If you throw in the Boozer-Bargnani trade, then things turn around quickly and we have a playoff team for the next 4+ years.

    PG: Lowry, Calderon, Lucas
    SG: Harden, Cook
    SF: Fields, Anderson, Kleiza
    PF: Boozer, Amir Johnson
    C: Gray, Aldrich

    So, if the Boozer/Barg offer presents itself, I would've been glad for having accepted the Harden trade. Boozer's massive contract becomes easier to swallow because Harden isn't overpaid like Gay is overpaid.

    Without the Boozer/Barg trade. Calderon expires. Hayward, McGuire, Cook, Lucas, Anderson all come off the books. We're looking at the following payroll in the summer of 2013:

    Harden: 18M
    Bargnani: 11M
    Lowry: 6M
    Johnson: 6M
    Fields: 6M
    Kleiza: 5M
    Gray: 3M

    $55M. If you Amnesty Bargnani, you should have enough to sign Josh Smith and round out the remaining spots with vet minimums.

    My knee-jerk reaction was that I'd have done the trade. Looking back now with possible roster configurations, I'm even more convinced. Because either way you have pretty solid teams with some maneuverability in the offseason. As it stands, we have nearly nothing to do in the offseason and the team still isn't a team where you can honestly say we'll make the playoffs for sure next year.

    It's hard to let go of a nice prospect like Jonas. Just like it's hard to trade Vince Carter for Kobe Bryant at the time, because at the time you think Vince is the next Michael Jordan. On the other hand when you look at the horizons of the NBA and how neither team that is favored to reach NBA Finals have a dominant C, you realize that it's much more useful to get a sure-thing superstar.
    I think you are comparing apples to oranges.

    Your example makes the assumption that the pieces Houston gave up were equal to the Raptors pieces. I don't think that is accurate. I think JV is more valuable than the future firsts from Houston because you knew what you were getting and it was a piece that OKC is in desperate need of long term and a player they coveted. Clearly the Houston package was not their first choice and did not address the Thunder long term needs at C.

    I think if this deal was done you would have seen JV, possibly 2nd rd picks, and salary cap equalizer for Harden's max incoming salary (because you only do this if he agrees to the extension). Harden would have become a PPP player much like DeRozan right now where his outgoing trade value would have been $5.8M but his incoming trade value would have been around $13M (average of final year of rookie deal and extension). Raps would have had to send out ~$8.5M (DD pre-extension $3.4, Ed $2.2, JV $3.4 = $9).

    I would not have done the trade for JV either. C's are the hardest position to find in the NBA and we saw glimpses of what JV can be and he is only 20. I think you need to give JV a couple of more years in the league before you can truly make the call if it was a good decision or not. The instant gratification would have been to get Harden but longer term I think it will be in the Raptors best interests to do what they did. Time will tell.

    Leave a comment:


  • swingman
    replied
    Big man talent>Wing talent
    Especially when you can't say for sure Harden would even want to stay.
    Would have been mighty tempting though

    Leave a comment:


  • ebrian
    replied
    In all seriousness, even if these two were the flagships of the trade, let's take a look at what the trade consisted of:

    James Harden traded by the Oklahoma City Thunder with Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to the Houston Rockets for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, a future 1st round draft pick, a future 1st round draft pick and a future 2nd round draft pick.

    I would translate that into:

    James Harden
    Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook, Lazar Hayward
    for
    Terrence Ross
    DeMar DeRozan
    Jonas Valanciunas
    future 1st round pick (would they take Ed Davis?)
    future 2nd round pick (would they take Quincy Acy?)

    So now you're looking at this opening day roster:

    PG: Lowry, Calderon, Lucas
    SG: James Harden, Daequan Cook
    SF: Landry Fields, Alan Anderson, Lazar Hayward, Linas Kleiza, Dominic McGuire
    PF: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson
    C: Aaron Gray, Cole Aldrich

    I don't know if this team is better than what we have today, although the future is slightly less bleak from a cap standpoint. This team doesn't make the playoffs so OKC still gets our 2013 pick. The only thing from a hindsight perspective is maybe if they didn't ask for Terrence Ross (or if we had drafted Andre Drummond instead of Ross and they didn't ask for Drummond). I can't imagine this team playing much defense but it'd certainly be a fun team to watch. Harden is 23 with a max contract that is easily more attractive than Rudy Gay's. Landry Fields and Linas Kleiza were already hurt at the start of the season. The 2012-2013 season won't be pretty.

    If you throw in the Boozer-Bargnani trade, then things turn around quickly and we have a playoff team for the next 4+ years.

    PG: Lowry, Calderon, Lucas
    SG: Harden, Cook
    SF: Fields, Anderson, Kleiza
    PF: Boozer, Amir Johnson
    C: Gray, Aldrich

    So, if the Boozer/Barg offer presents itself, I would've been glad for having accepted the Harden trade. Boozer's massive contract becomes easier to swallow because Harden isn't overpaid like Gay is overpaid.

    Without the Boozer/Barg trade. Calderon expires. Hayward, McGuire, Cook, Lucas, Anderson all come off the books. We're looking at the following payroll in the summer of 2013:

    Harden: 18M
    Bargnani: 11M
    Lowry: 6M
    Johnson: 6M
    Fields: 6M
    Kleiza: 5M
    Gray: 3M

    $55M. If you Amnesty Bargnani, you should have enough to sign Josh Smith and round out the remaining spots with vet minimums.

    My knee-jerk reaction was that I'd have done the trade. Looking back now with possible roster configurations, I'm even more convinced. Because either way you have pretty solid teams with some maneuverability in the offseason. As it stands, we have nearly nothing to do in the offseason and the team still isn't a team where you can honestly say we'll make the playoffs for sure next year.

    It's hard to let go of a nice prospect like Jonas. Just like it's hard to trade Vince Carter for Kobe Bryant at the time, because at the time you think Vince is the next Michael Jordan. On the other hand when you look at the horizons of the NBA and how neither team that is favored to reach NBA Finals have a dominant C, you realize that it's much more useful to get a sure-thing superstar.

    Leave a comment:


  • blackjitsu
    replied
    I would hesitate, then probably reject the offer. Harden wanted a max extension. That pretty much would kill it for me. But I don't think I could reject it immediately. That's what the article insinuates. I don't even understand how that is possible.

    Leave a comment:


  • ezz_bee
    replied
    I wouldn't trade JV for Harden. However, if Harden was on the raps, and another team was offering me JV for him, I wouldn't make that trade either.

    I love watching both those guys play.

    Leave a comment:


  • ReubenJRD
    replied
    Wow, tough question.

    I would, uhm... Ugh, I would probably do so, because of that fact Harden is arguably a top 5 wing player, an all-star already at young age, and arguably a superstar already. Now, if we include Derozan in a deal - so no log-jam at the shooting guard - that means we'd have to get some SERIOUS assets in return. Jonas's potential is extremely high, and Derozan is one of the better shooting guards in the league with still much, much more room to grow.

    Straight up deal? Jonas for Harden? Sure, but I would do it with a tear running down my face.

    Lowry
    Harden/Derozan
    Gay
    Johnson
    Gray

    Seeing Gray in that lineup looks so wrong, lol.

    Leave a comment:


  • torch19
    replied
    Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
    I'm not sure if I'd trade Jonas for Anthony Davis at this point. Call me foolish.
    You're not alone. I wouldn't do that trade either. But straight up, Harden for Valanciunas, I will -- although with a heavy heart.

    I just don't think that would have been the case. I really think for the trade to have happened, it would have included either Ross/DeMar & Ed Davis to get Harden.

    Leave a comment:


  • Balls of Steel
    replied
    I'm not sure if I'd trade Jonas for Anthony Davis at this point. Call me foolish.

    Leave a comment:


  • chris
    replied
    all that said i really do love JV and wouldn't trade him for most of the players ahead of him on that list, or that i presume will be ahead of him on that list.

    Leave a comment:


  • chris
    replied
    NoPropsneeded wrote: View Post
    Never, It's much easier to get a star wing player than a star big. JV is very rare
    you can flip this around so easily to say:

    in a rapidly changing league where there's such a huge premium on 3 pt shooting and ball movement, where every one of the best teams does not have a franchise traditional big except san antonio and (arguably) memphis, and yet all of them have franchise perimeter players, do you need one?

    cuz to me all current evidence points towards 'no.'

    Leave a comment:


  • chris
    replied
    i think it’s hilarious and not-surprising at all that this vote currently stands at 5 to 2 in favor of ‘nay’.

    hey you know how there’s that thread about hollinger’s pre-season win prediction and he was dead on while every single one of you over-predicted except for the brain? and you guys are gettin’ all self-reflective about maybe being a little too optimistic? or there was that other pre-season thread where chuck thought we’d finish last in the division and many of you freaked out and decried how little he actually knows about basketball and how much he hates canada etc... he was also right. it seems to me that often the american media many of the lot on this board tend to resent so much is a lot more accurate in their assessment of this team, precisely because they don’t give a shit and therefore can look up and down the roster and actually be objective.

    anyhow, i think yer doin it again.

    i make this trade in a second. it is a bona-fide, guaranteed, 23 year old franchise player years away from his prime and actually worth a max contract, for a player we all hope and has a chance to become a franchise player, but who will take at least a few years to do so.

    and i love JV and agree enthusiastically with all these things:

    white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    *I'm really incredibly high on JV though. I see JV as being fully in control of high how he goes, and given his combination of size, athleticism, skills, motor, intangibles...just everything is there, so the sky's the limit. He's so young and I think he's the best prospect the Raps have ever had.
    but it’s still not even a question for me. take the sure thing every time.

    Leave a comment:

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