Playoffs 2014 - Who's in, Who's out?

[C-Low]

Kind of.

That Liston article has me softening a bit.... although I am fighting it.

What happens if:

a) Gay plays to the best of his abilities ie. he is an all star,
b) what happens if DD and Gay feed off one another as they did down the stretch,
c) what happens if JV is half as good as the expectations placed upon him,
d) what happens if Lowry plays the way we all thought,
e) what happens if Casey returns to defensive form,
f) what happens if Fields can shoot again,
g) what happens if he can get anything of value for Bargnani?


Lots of ifs but (and another one coming) if the Raptors make the playoffs - and if all the above happened -and they went to the 2nd round *gasp* or farther *gasp*gasp* do you still crucify him for the previous 7 years or does he get credit for finally putting the pieces of a winner together?


Don't kill the messenger! Just asking to get other perspectives.

^^ +1 million I don't usually agree with ppl on this forum, but that's bang on. BY NO means am I Colangelo hater or supporter. I simply want to see the Raptors get better. Realistically Colangelo has probably fulfilled every need that upper brass has ever thrown at him. Can't pan out if the moves didn't work out. AT LEAST he can get deals done, unlike most of our other GMs. He was able to bring JO in when we felt we were right on the cusp of being dangerous.. not his fault dudes knee was bad, and Roy Hibbert turned out better than expected ( still heavily overpaid tho). When he got Turk, the media was clamouring about how the Raptors pulled a coup on Portland to get him..hah. Again not really his fault though hedo was the most coveted free agent that year and guess what Colangelo got him. How many picks at 5, 9, 13 project to be as productive as DD, Davis, JV ? Did Kyle Lowry not go off in Houston and merit looks from tons of teams, but reportedly WANTED to come to Toronto if he was gonna be the guy. And Rudy Gay.. will probably be an All-Star regardless we still needed a star SF ..we all begged for it, all said its what we wanted ..he did it.

Realistically most of this dudes moves were praised at the time, or most likely what ownership and definitely the fans wanted.

I'll save the hate for if he messes up anymore this offseason like with the Landry Fields deal ( can't forgive that one.. clever move, but come ooooon if that costs us the ability to get a player like Korver I'll still be pissed about it lol)

[Primer]

Barring catastophic injuries, the top five: Heat, Knicks, Pacers, Nets and Bulls are locks. Atlanta is a curious case but the Hawks have a bunch of assets and a veteran GM who seems to have learned some lessons from past failures. Who knows with the Celts but, assuming KG is back and Rondo is healthy, I see them getting in.

It's going to be tough for the Raps. Cleveland should be improved with Irving in his third year. Washington played pretty good ball once healthy and I think they could be a sleeper next year. Philly is a different team if Bynum is back. The only hope I see is JV making a big step in year 2 and showing he's going to be an elite centre. If that happens, I can see them squeaking in. Barring that, I don't see it. Derozan, Lowry and Gay have plateaued as players. I'd be shocked if their numbers moved much next year. Amir is about as good as can be expected. There isn't anything else worth mentioning. Without capspace or any quality trade chips (unless you're moving key guys) I just don't feel very confident with this roster heading into next year.

Read the SI article. It should help give you a little confidence. I think our starting 5 is a playoff lock, we just need a bench to match them. No reason we should be under .500 next year and that is enough to be a playoff lock in the East.

[d749]

it goes one of two ways. burns out and we sit around 9-10 all year with no really chance
or
everything finally clicks and we suprise everyone and it ends up
heat
bulls
pacers
raptors
knicks
nets
wizards
76ers

[slaw]

Barring catastophic injuries, the top five: Heat, Knicks, Pacers, Nets and Bulls are locks. Atlanta is a curious case but the Hawks have a bunch of assets and a veteran GM who seems to have learned some lessons from past failures. Who knows with the Celts but, assuming KG is back and Rondo is healthy, I see them getting in.

It's going to be tough for the Raps. Cleveland should be improved with Irving in his third year. Washington played pretty good ball once healthy and I think they could be a sleeper next year. Philly is a different team if Bynum is back. The only hope I see is JV making a big step in year 2 and showing he's going to be an elite centre. If that happens, I can see them squeaking in. Barring that, I don't see it. Derozan, Lowry and Gay have plateaued as players. I'd be shocked if their numbers moved much next year. Amir is about as good as can be expected. There isn't anything else worth mentioning. Without capspace or any quality trade chips (unless you're moving key guys) I just don't feel very confident with this roster heading into next year.

[stretch]

How Christopher Bosh, awkward above average NBA forward, saved the world and brought a championship to Miami:

http://deadspin.com/this-chris-bosh-...rugs-478109116

[planetmars]

This team is essentially the Indiana Pacers without mental toughness. They need a David West type Veteran and a nutso like Psycho T off the bench.

If they had that, and everyone played as close to their maximum capabilities then I could see the Raptors becoming a 5th/6th seed.. however I am treading carefully going into next season so will be expecting a 9th place finish.

[mcHAPPY]

I'm with Fully on this. Mind you this is based on where I think Rudy Gay can be, not in the realm of magical wonderland where Rudy Gay played out of his mind and became better than LeBron James. In this realm, on this earth, if the stars aligned and every player on this roster played to the best of his capability, based on scouting reports and what we've seen so far in their respective careers -- if they played that well and never got hurt -- I think we're a 7th seed.

Which, I suppose, gives you a neat picture of where I think they'll place next year because stars don't align themselves in the real world.

Fair enough.

But in my world where all the stars align you have 2 near all-stars starting in your back court, an all-star at SF, an all-star at C, a JR Smith-esque Ross off the bench, krazy glue in Amir and Fields (who can now shoot 3's again), a GOOD veteran back up PG, and another PF who contributes.

My stars aligning probably needs another galaxy to actually happen but we are talking about guys coming near maxing out their potential.... or at least I am.

[ebrian]

I disagree on that.

If all the stars align the Raptors ceiling is much higher, in my opinion.

It is probably a moot point because I can't see all the stars aligning to begin with.

I'm with Fully on this. Mind you this is based on where I think Rudy Gay can be, not in the realm of magical wonderland where Rudy Gay played out of his mind and became better than LeBron James. In this realm, on this earth, if the stars aligned and every player on this roster played to the best of his capability, based on scouting reports and what we've seen so far in their respective careers -- if they played that well and never got hurt -- I think we're a 7th seed.

Which, I suppose, gives you a neat picture of where I think they'll place next year because stars don't align themselves in the real world.

[Letter N]

Yes, if all the stars align and the Raps become the 4th or 5th seed, win a round and not embarrass themselves in the 2nd round then yes, I'll admit that for all his individual failings he was able to make it all work in the end.

If all that happens then I can just sit back and pray we don't trade our draft picks for money and give away Ross to make room for Marcus Banks.

[mcHAPPY]

I think you identified the problem quite nicely actually. If all the stars align for the Raptors over the next 12 months then they're likely a 7-8 seed in an overall lousy Eastern Conference. When the end result of a 5-year playoff drought/rebuild is that you need EVERYTHING to go your way just to sneak into a playoff spot... well, you've probably gone wrong.

Throw in the fact that this is a luxury tax team right now and it becomes difficult to see how the team gets over that next hump (or into the playoffs at all if they fall short again next year).

BC has now set himself up over the past week - and rather shrewdly I must admit - where squeaking into the playoffs next season will be celebrated as a major accomplishment. It's not. He really does just keep lowering the bar of expectations until they get to the level of his results.

I disagree on that.

If all the stars align the Raptors ceiling is much higher, in my opinion.

It is probably a moot point because I can't see all the stars aligning to begin with.

[Fully]

Kind of.

That Liston article has me softening a bit.... although I am fighting it.

What happens if:

a) Gay plays to the best of his abilities ie. he is an all star,
b) what happens if DD and Gay feed off one another as they did down the stretch,
c) what happens if JV is half as good as the expectations placed upon him,
d) what happens if Lowry plays the way we all thought,
e) what happens if Casey returns to defensive form,
f) what happens if Fields can shoot again,
g) what happens if he can get anything of value for Bargnani?


Lots of ifs but (and another one coming) if the Raptors make the playoffs - and if all the above happened -and they went to the 2nd round *gasp* or farther *gasp*gasp* do you still crucify him for the previous 7 years or does he get credit for finally putting the pieces of a winner together?
.

I think you identified the problem quite nicely actually. If all the stars align for the Raptors over the next 12 months then they're likely a 7-8 seed in an overall lousy Eastern Conference. When the end result of a 5-year playoff drought/rebuild is that you need EVERYTHING to go your way just to sneak into a playoff spot... well, you've probably gone wrong.

Throw in the fact that this is a luxury tax team right now and it becomes difficult to see how the team gets over that next hump (or into the playoffs at all if they fall short again next year).

BC has now set himself up over the past week - and rather shrewdly I must admit - where squeaking into the playoffs next season will be celebrated as a major accomplishment. It's not. He really does just keep lowering the bar of expectations until they get to the level of his results.

[Primer]

Locks:
Heat
Bulls
Pacers
Knicks

Likely:
Nets

Too many ????:
Hawks
Celtics
Bucks

No fucking chance in hell Phil Jackson goes to coach Cleveland. Mike Brown sounds about right, and I think he's a terrible coach so I hope he ends up there (or coaching someone in the East, the guys whole rep is built on having Lebron win games for him).

I expect the Hawks to land a big FA or two and actually get better. They're gonna go hard after Howard, and then focus on Al Jefferson and Monta Ellis (they could sign both) if they don't get Howard. They could also resign Josh Smith, or get something for him in a S&T. They will also likely bring back Korver on a cheap deal, so they'll Have Horford, Lou Williams, John Jenkins, and a resigned Teague and Korver. That's already a playoff team. Add in Jefferson and Ellis and they are a contender. Basically, way too early to tell with ATL. They also have 2 first round draft picks so they are poised to make huge moves.

Celtics are a lock if KG and Pierce come back and Rondo isn't dealt. Those are all huge if's (maybe not the Rondo part).If they get bounced in the first round I could easily see KG calling it a day and retiring. The guy has nothing left to prove and he knows that team can't win it all again. His desire (and $9M) may bring him back another year though.

I personally don't think the Wiz, Cavs, or Pistons getting better than the Raps this offseason.
The Wizards bench is fucking abysmal, and so is the entire team outside of Wall, Beal, and Nene (and to a lesser extent Okafor). The Wiz went 2-7 in April, supposedly when all the other teams weren't playing to win anymore (thats how we discount all the Raps April wins right?), including a nice 6 game losing streak to close the season (I know they had injuries but Wall was playing 35+ mins a game). Not sure if anyone's noticed but Nene hasn't played anywhere close to a full season the past 2 years, and I expect that trend to continue. Wall and Beal will be fantasy studs but the team will be in the standings cellar.

Detroit just sucks. You can only say they have a great front court so many times before you have to look at their win loss record, which is abysmal. They're a shitty team with some decent big men, which doesn't get you into the playoffs.

The Bucks will be our main competition, but only if they can bring back both Ellis and Jennings. I expect them to lose one of those guys so thats where the Raps slide in.

My super early predicition:
Heat
Bulls
Pacers
Knicks
Hawks
Nets
Raps
Bucks/Celtics (depends on who brings their players back)

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Kind of.

That Liston article has me softening a bit.... although I am fighting it.

What happens if:

a) Gay plays to the best of his abilities ie. he is an all star,
b) what happens if DD and Gay feed off one another as they did down the stretch,
c) what happens if JV is half as good as the expectations placed upon him,
d) what happens if Lowry plays the way we all thought,
e) what happens if Casey returns to defensive form,
f) what happens if Fields can shoot again,
g) what happens if he can get anything of value for Bargnani?


Lots of ifs but (and another one coming) if the Raptors make the playoffs - and if all the above happened -and they went to the 2nd round *gasp* or farther *gasp*gasp* do you still crucify him for the previous 7 years or does he get credit for finally putting the pieces of a winner together?


Don't kill the messenger! Just asking to get other perspectives.

h) what happens if Ross gets significant playing time and is half as good as the expectations placed upon him


Although far from perfect, the Raptors do have a very young core that is both talented and full of potential... the key is realizing that individual potential, playing together as a team (ie: goodbye AA & JL), being more efficient offensively, returning to form defensively and minimizing bonehead mistakes.

Position - Player (age on Nov.1/13 - start of next season)
1. C - Valanciunas (21)
2. PF - Johnson (26)
3. SF - Gay (27)
4. SG - DeRozan (24)
5. PG - Lowry (27)
6. SF - Fields (25)
7. SG - Ross (22)
7 players average age: 24.6

Assuming Gray sticks around by picking up his player option, even he'll only be 28 at the start of next season. Acy isn't really a 'core' player, since he's a 3rd string / 5th big type, but he'll be just 23. For those 9 players, the average age is 24.8.

That just cries out for some veteran leadership, in the form of another PF (starter or backup), backup PG and 5th wing.

[Marz]

Kind of.

That Liston article has me softening a bit.... although I am fighting it.

What happens if:

a) Gay plays to the best of his abilities ie. he is an all star,
b) what happens if DD and Gay feed off one another as they did down the stretch,
c) what happens if JV is half as good as the expectations placed upon him,
d) what happens if Lowry plays the way we all thought,
e) what happens if Casey returns to defensive form,
f) what happens if Fields can shoot again,
g) what happens if he can get anything of value for Bargnani?


Lots of ifs but (and another one coming) if the Raptors make the playoffs - and if all the above happened -and they went to the 2nd round *gasp* or farther *gasp*gasp* do you still crucify him for the previous 7 years or does he get credit for finally putting the pieces of a winner together?


Don't kill the messenger! Just asking to get other perspectives.

No GM is perfect, you can always criticize past transactions. Everyone wanted Danny Ainge's head on a platter not too long ago for wasting Paul Pierce's prime with a shot-chucking Antoine Walker and... not much else. After the Ray Allen trade, Boston was up in arms with pitchforks and fire. Then he did the KG trade and everyone praised him as a genius. Rondo blossomed into one of the best PGs in the league and he became a visionary. Does his championship undo his blunders from 2003-2007*?

*Some draft-blunders by Danny Ainge: http://greenstreet.weei.com/sports/b...nny-ainge-era/

[mcHAPPY]

Is it fucked that I want the Raps to not make it if Colangelo is back?

Kind of.

That Liston article has me softening a bit.... although I am fighting it.

What happens if:

a) Gay plays to the best of his abilities ie. he is an all star,
b) what happens if DD and Gay feed off one another as they did down the stretch,
c) what happens if JV is half as good as the expectations placed upon him,
d) what happens if Lowry plays the way we all thought,
e) what happens if Casey returns to defensive form,
f) what happens if Fields can shoot again,
g) what happens if he can get anything of value for Bargnani?


Lots of ifs but (and another one coming) if the Raptors make the playoffs - and if all the above happened -and they went to the 2nd round *gasp* or farther *gasp*gasp* do you still crucify him for the previous 7 years or does he get credit for finally putting the pieces of a winner together?


Don't kill the messenger! Just asking to get other perspectives.