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Money Ballin' It - The Spurs should be the blueprint to sustained success?

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  • #31
    There's no question that the Spurs are a very well coached team, and have done very well with a great coach, and one of the best of all time in Duncan, but some people need rid themselves of this myth that the organization are geniuses in judging talent and drafting.

    1. Ginobli: If anyone believes the Spurs actually had a clue what Ginobli would turn into, why would they have waited
    until the 57th pick to grab him, instead of wasting the 29 pick on a mentally ill Leon Smith who never saw the floor for them? Great scouting on a pick that spent as much time in mental institutions as in the NBA, hey.

    2. Since Ginobli was drafted in 1999, other than getting Parker (2001) at 28, the best picks they've made (Scola, Barbosa, Dragic), they traded away for what turned out to be scrap, before they even saw the floor for them. Otherwise their "great scouting and drafting" have netted them:
    2000, #41 Chris Carrawell
    2000, #54 Corey Hightower
    2001, #55 Robertas Javtokas
    2001, #57 Bryan Bracey
    2002, #26 John Salmons (Spurs type player?)
    2002, #55 Luis Scola (traded for scrap before seeing the floor for them)
    2002, #56 Randy Holcomb
    2003, #28 Leandro Barbosa (traded for scrap before seeing the floor for them)
    2004, #28 Beno Udrih
    2004, #52 Romain Sato
    2004, #57 Sergei Karaulov
    2005, #28 Ian Mahinmi
    2006, #59 Damir Markota
    2007, #28 Tiago Splitter
    2007, #33 Marcus Williams
    2007, #58 Giorgos Printezis
    2008, #26 George Hill
    2008, #45 Goran Dragic (traded for scrap before seeing the floor for them)
    2008, #57 James Gist
    2009, #37 DuJuan Blair
    2009, #51 Jack McClinton
    2009, #53 Nando De Colo
    2010, #20 James Anderson
    2010, #49 Ryan Richards
    2011, #29 Cory Joseph
    2011, #59 Adam Hanga
    2012, #59 Marcus Denmon

    So, any great genius draft picks in the last 11 years? The idea that keeps getting spewed, that they always seem to make good picks late in the draft, is totally a myth, yet people keep spewing it over and over. The draft is as much a crap shoot for them as anyone else.

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    • #32
      CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
      Guys like Duncan and Durant also seem like throwback type players to me, in that they like/accept the challenge of winning on their own, with their team. They don't seem like the type of players/people to go for the whole "super team" approach. Duncan's Spurs and Durant's Thunder are way more like Jordan's Bulls, Magic's Lakers and Larry's Celtics, while LBJ & Howard both prefer the easy way out of teaming up with other superstars to 'cheat' the competitive spirit of sports.
      That is so stupid. Duncan's Spurs and Durant's Thunder started winning big how long after they got drafted? Duncan won his first championship in his third season. Durant has yet to lose more than 32 games in a season since his first two years in the league. LeBron played with a team that won 19 games the year he left - in the East. In their best year, Cleveland's management would've been thoroughly outplayed by San Antonio's or Oklahoma's in their worst. Why leave when management is good enough to bring the super team to you?

      Howard though... no comment, lol

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      • #33
        The Spurs are a good team to look at for sustaining their success. They more than any other team in the league, and that's including the Lakers, have maximized their talent for the longest duration by continually putting the correct pieces around their core of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. But having said that they had a centre peice, franchise player to build around and they didn't do anything shrewd to attain him. They were simply blessed by the draft day Gods when they landed the number one pick and snagged Duncan. Simple, dumb, luck.

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        • #34
          Mediumcore wrote: View Post
          The Spurs are a good team to look at for sustaining their success. They more than any other team in the league, and that's including the Lakers, have maximized their talent for the longest duration by continually putting the correct pieces around their core of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. But having said that they had a centre peice, franchise player to build around and they didn't do anything shrewd to attain him. They were simply blessed by the draft day Gods when they landed the number one pick and snagged Duncan. Simple, dumb, luck.
          They actually lucked out twice, as they got Robinson as well with the number one pick. I personally don't think Duncan would have been as good without Robinson there as his mentor. Duncan is talented but I don't think he'd be the leader he is today without Robinson being there originally.

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          • #35
            Money Ball: The Dallas plan to sustained success

            Lots of talk about the Spurs being a blueprint for sustained success that the Raptors should follow. I have to disagree, because the Spurs success was built on getting a hall of famer with the #1 overall pick. Without Tim Duncan, the Spurs don't win or even compete for any championships. So, is getting a top lottery pick the way to go, or is there a better more easily accomplished model? Let's see how many players come into the league with the potential to take their teams to the finals in the past 10 years.

            2003.) Lebron #1
            I don't include Wade because he needed Shaq to get to the finals, and the team reverted to mediocre garbage once Shaq was gone until LBJ arrived.

            2004.) Dwight Howard #1

            2007.) Kevin Durant #2

            2008.) Derrick Rose #1
            Rose is debatable since he hasn't taken his team there yet, but I think without the superstars convening in Miami they would have been in the finals already.

            There hasn't been a franchise changing star drafted since 2008 (a player that can carry his team to the finals). That's 5 years in a row where tanking leaves you in the same boat the next year, albeit with a great player, but still a team that can't hang. That's why "suck and luck" (I love that term) is a super high risk proposition. Not only do you need to have a lotto pick, you pretty much need the 1st overall pick. The odds on getting the first overall pick, combined with the odds of that pick being a hall of fame talent, are absurdly low.

            A more realistic model for the Raps to copy is the Dallas model. They built around a 9th overall pick and turned it into a championship contender and winner. I think we need to look at Jonas as our "Dirk", and start to build around him the way Dallas did. I actually think we're doing a decent job of it now, we just need to keep it up and keep our fingers crossed Jonas gets to a Dirk level of domination (that hook shot + his FT skills could do it in time).

            For more perspective, Dirk was drafted in 1998. Dallas didn't make the playoffs until 2001, but has made the playoffs every year since then until this year. They made the NBA finals twice in that span, winning once. That's a pretty damn good run, and shows you how a championship team can be built through years of playoff experience. Just look at the roster of their championship team.
            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2...vericks_season
            Dirk is the only superstar in the bunch. The Raps could build something like that.

            I think Jonas will be ready to take the team to the next level in the 2015-16 season, when the Raps have plenty of space to put whatever missing pieces we need around him. The Heat should also be significantly diminished by then, meaning that we have a real shot of coming out of the East. That is the most realistic path for the Raps to get to the NBA finals, the Dallas plan.

            Comment


            • #36
              Sorry I made a new thread, but I posted this a few days ago and no one responded or mentioned Dallas as a possible model, just kept talking about the Spurs. Maybe they skipped my post because it was long. Either way, I don't want to talk about the Spurs as a model, I want to talk about Dallas a model, hence the new thread. The Spurs discussion is dumb in my eyes because it all started with a #1 pick who became possibly the greatest PF of all time. That's not a blueprint, that's luck. Everything else they did doesn't mean shit unless they get Tim Duncan in that draft.

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              • #37
                Primer wrote: View Post
                Sorry I made a new thread, but I posted this a few days ago and no one responded or mentioned Dallas as a possible model, just kept talking about the Spurs. Maybe they skipped my post because it was long. Either way, I don't want to talk about the Spurs as a model, I want to talk about Dallas a model, hence the new thread. The Spurs discussion is dumb in my eyes because it all started with a #1 pick who became possibly the greatest PF of all time. That's not a blueprint, that's luck. Everything else they did doesn't mean shit unless they get Tim Duncan in that draft.
                One could argue that the 'Dallas Model' also starts with a HOF PF and the team's success comes from putting the 'right' parts around him.

                There seems to be 2 basic models for franchises to follow:

                1. Build around a superstar by adding players that 'fit' (ie: high skilled role players) - OKC, Spurs, Mavs models

                2. Build a well rounded team, continually improving the 'weak link' on both the starting and 2nd units, without having a superstar to build around


                We've seen Toronto try and fail multiple times to use #1 with illegitimate superstar (ie: Bosh, Bargnani, DeRozan), so I think approach #2 is the logical option going forward.

                Comment


                • #38
                  CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                  One could argue that the 'Dallas Model' also starts with a HOF PF and the team's success comes from putting the 'right' parts around him.

                  There seems to be 2 basic models for franchises to follow:

                  1. Build around a superstar by adding players that 'fit' (ie: high skilled role players) - OKC, Spurs, Mavs models

                  2. Build a well rounded team, continually improving the 'weak link' on both the starting and 2nd units, without having a superstar to build around


                  We've seen Toronto try and fail multiple times to use #1 with illegitimate superstar (ie: Bosh, Bargnani, DeRozan), so I think approach #2 is the logical option going forward.
                  The big difference being Dirk was a #9 pick who was a somewhat unknown international player that Dallas developed into a star (Jonas anyone?). Dirk barely played his first season. Tim Duncan was a known beast right from the start. averaging nearly 40 minutes per game and 21pts right out of the gate. Dallas also struggled in the lotto for several years after they drafted Dirk. San Antonio has made the playoffs every year since Duncan was drafted and won the NBA championship in Duncan's second year. I just think the Dallas situation is way more applicable to the Raps. They also had a GM who made some mistakes (letting Nash go) but eventually got it right, which is much closer to the Raps GM situation. People can't look at the Spurs and say, the Raps could do that. I think you can look at Dallas and say, the Raps could do that. Jonas can be our Dirk in 3 years (20 and 10 guy).

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Primer wrote: View Post
                    The big difference being Dirk was a #9 pick who was a somewhat unknown international player that Dallas developed into a star (Jonas anyone?). Dirk barely played his first season. Tim Duncan was a known beast right from the start. averaging nearly 40 minutes per game and 21pts right out of the gate. Dallas also struggled in the lotto for several years after they drafted Dirk. San Antonio has made the playoffs every year since Duncan was drafted and won the NBA championship in Duncan's second year. I just think the Dallas situation is way more applicable to the Raps. They also had a GM who made some mistakes (letting Nash go) but eventually got it right, which is much closer to the Raps GM situation. People can't look at the Spurs and say, the Raps could do that. I think you can look at Dallas and say, the Raps could do that. Jonas can be our Dirk in 3 years (20 and 10 guy).
                    It took Dirk a few years to develop into the HOF'er he is and the team didn't have success until he did. All the success after that (including their championship), was the exact same formula as the Spurs/OKC, etc... put the right parts around a superstar.

                    At this point in time there's no way of guaranteeing that any Raptor player will become a legit superstar to be built around. That's all just wishful thinking, which has been BC's approach in the past with Bosh, Bargnani, etc...

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                      It took Dirk a few years to develop into the HOF'er he is and the team didn't have success until he did. All the success after that (including their championship), was the exact same formula as the Spurs/OKC, etc... put the right parts around a superstar.

                      At this point in time there's no way of guaranteeing that any Raptor player will become a legit superstar to be built around. That's all just wishful thinking, which has been BC's approach in the past with Bosh, Bargnani, etc...
                      If the goal is sustained success (a realistic goal) then you don't need a HOF'er to build around. You do need an All Star though. I think the Raps have one in Jonas, now it's just timing and making sure the right pieces are around him. I'd also note that Dirk developed into a HOF type talent by playing the playoffs every year, not by being on a team that repeatedly tanked to get high picks. So if we want Jonas to become that type of talent, we need to be shooting for the playoffs and not the lottery again. I don't think you've advocated that but a lot of people around these parts do. It's hard to develop players into champions if you're asking them to tank.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        p00ka wrote: View Post
                        There's no question that the Spurs are a very well coached team, and have done very well with a great coach, and one of the best of all time in Duncan, but some people need rid themselves of this myth that the organization are geniuses in judging talent and drafting.

                        1. Ginobli: If anyone believes the Spurs actually had a clue what Ginobli would turn into, why would they have waited
                        until the 57th pick to grab him, instead of wasting the 29 pick on a mentally ill Leon Smith who never saw the floor for them? Great scouting on a pick that spent as much time in mental institutions as in the NBA, hey.

                        2. Since Ginobli was drafted in 1999, other than getting Parker (2001) at 28, the best picks they've made (Scola, Barbosa, Dragic), they traded away for what turned out to be scrap, before they even saw the floor for them. Otherwise their "great scouting and drafting" have netted them:
                        2000, #41 Chris Carrawell
                        2000, #54 Corey Hightower
                        2001, #55 Robertas Javtokas
                        2001, #57 Bryan Bracey
                        2002, #26 John Salmons (Spurs type player?)
                        2002, #55 Luis Scola (traded for scrap before seeing the floor for them)
                        2002, #56 Randy Holcomb
                        2003, #28 Leandro Barbosa (traded for scrap before seeing the floor for them)
                        2004, #28 Beno Udrih
                        2004, #52 Romain Sato
                        2004, #57 Sergei Karaulov
                        2005, #28 Ian Mahinmi
                        2006, #59 Damir Markota
                        2007, #28 Tiago Splitter
                        2007, #33 Marcus Williams
                        2007, #58 Giorgos Printezis
                        2008, #26 George Hill
                        2008, #45 Goran Dragic (traded for scrap before seeing the floor for them)
                        2008, #57 James Gist
                        2009, #37 DuJuan Blair
                        2009, #51 Jack McClinton
                        2009, #53 Nando De Colo
                        2010, #20 James Anderson
                        2010, #49 Ryan Richards
                        2011, #29 Cory Joseph
                        2011, #59 Adam Hanga
                        2012, #59 Marcus Denmon

                        So, any great genius draft picks in the last 11 years? The idea that keeps getting spewed, that they always seem to make good picks late in the draft, is totally a myth, yet people keep spewing it over and over. The draft is as much a crap shoot for them as anyone else.
                        I was going to post something similar, but you beat me to it (thankfully). Their drafting record is not that good. Although it was nice seeing Cory Joseph on the floor the last couple of games. They didn't draft Kawhi Leonard, but it was a draft day deal and still a good move.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                          One common element is that they're both true superstars. The model is doomed to fail when you try to build around players who aren't true superstars - ie: Bosh, Bargnani, DeRozan, Gay...
                          You don't need true superstars to draft better players. Or maybe Spurs are just uncommonly lucky in their drafting? Good teams maximize their draft picks, and then have them as assets to play on low cost rookie contracts, trade for needed pieces or resign. You don't need true superstars to define a team identity, use effective offensive and defensive strategies and stick with them until everyone on the team knows them well enough to play in them with whoever else is on the floor.

                          Without the superstar, you may never win the championship, but boy, 5 or 6 years in a row of getting to the second round is looking very desirable right now. And continually getting to the second round will eventually attract that superstar when everything aligns correctly.

                          You cannot win if you throw everything over every two years.

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                          • #43
                            Exactly. Some people seem to be afraid to become mediocre. I say, damn, that would be nice (for about 5 years).

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              To your comments about the Spurs drafting, I think BC tapped into RC Buford selecting Q Acy over Q Miller this past draft. At the time I was scratching my head, but Ace is legit.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                TheR3dMenace wrote: View Post
                                Now if we can only draft one of the greatest basketball players of all time...
                                Jonas Valanciunas, duh.

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