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Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

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  • Hurricane_Herm
    replied
    Fully wrote: View Post
    But if we're doing completely hypothetical situations, here's one:

    .... ... ...

    I actually think my scenario is more likely than yours.
    This is an easier scenario to work with because you have a honest idea of when your strengths are, and the ceiling of the team. IF we middle out with lots of struggles I believe MU would let KL walk & draft a PG. Gay's contract would have some serious value to a team trying to make the playoffs or shed cap (1 year $20 million). Derozan is versatile enough to find a suitor on another team, and be worth at minimum a pick. The situation is easier because we can see we gave Casey one year with this team, it doesn't work, and now its time to blow it up for the 2014-2015 season.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fully
    replied
    But the Raptors are going to become one of those elite markets after Rudy Gay & DeRozan lead the team to the 8th seed and they lose 4-1 in the first round to Miami.

    Leave a comment:


  • Axel
    replied
    Great post Craiger

    Leave a comment:


  • Craiger
    replied
    From Matt52's Van Gundy quote:

    I think it's accepted wisdom that the way you build a team now is to get as bad as you can and then build it back -- and that's the only way to do it. But that's not how Daryl Morey has done it. He has at no time made that effort.
    Prior to he Harden deal, Morey had a team of rookies and second year players + Asik/Lin/Martin/Delfino.

    That team had no shot at the playoffs. What Morey did with the Harden deal was impressive, moreso if he did it with the foresight that Harden would be available prior to the season's start. But lets not pretend Morey wasn't set up for a tank year had Harden not been available or gone his way.

    There is another way to do it: You can try to win. You can try to give your fans a good product every year. I'm not saying the teams that go the other way are wrong; I'm just saying it's not the only way to do it.
    Yes (get as bad as you can) is not the only way to do it - if your team is a top end NBA market. Then your team has a legitimate shot at building a contender any way you choose. Sign a big free agent, build up tradeable assets and wait for either a disgruntled star or nervous small market team whose superstar is a year away from UFA. Tank. Keep overpriced expiring deals on the books waiting for that team who is ready to rebuild.

    But what about the other half of the NBA?

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Here is the list of the top 20 players by WS/48.

    LeBron James-MIA
    Kevin Durant-OKC
    Chris Paul-LAC
    Tyson Chandler - NYK
    Tony Parker-SAS
    James Harden-HOU
    Marc Gasol-MEM
    Tiago Splitter-SAS
    Blake Griffin-LAC
    Russell Westbrook-OKC
    Dwyane Wade-MIA
    Tim Duncan-SAS
    Brook Lopez-BRK
    Carmelo Anthony-NYK
    Deron Williams-BRK
    Serge Ibaka-OKC
    Stephen Curry-GSW
    David West-IND
    George Hill-IND
    Chris Bosh-MIA

    11 are with the team that drafted them (Marc Gasol may be an exception, but had his rights traded for as he was not yet in the NBA)

    Of the 9 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, Only 2 (David West and George Hill) are not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Here is a list of the top 20 players by PER (played atleast 30 minutes)

    LeBron James, MIA
    Kevin Durant, OKC
    Chris Paul, LAC
    Carmelo Anthony, NY
    Brook Lopez, BKN
    Tim Duncan, SA
    Dwyane Wade, MIA
    Russell Westbrook, OKC
    Tony Parker, SA
    Kobe Bryant, LAL
    James Harden, HOU
    Blake Griffin, LAC
    Anthony Davis, NO
    Anderson Varejao, CLE
    Kyrie Irving, CLE
    Stephen Curry, GS
    Al Jefferson, UTAH (Charlotte now)
    John Wall, WSH
    LaMarcus Aldridge, POR
    Deron Williams, BKN

    14 are with the team that drafted them.

    Of the 6 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, Only 1 player (Al Jefferson) is not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Here is the list of top 20 players by WP

    Durant, Kevin
    James, LeBron
    Paul, Chris
    Harden, James
    Chandler, Tyson
    Ibaka, Serge
    Curry, Stephen
    Noah, Joakim
    Conley, Mike
    Wade, Dwyane
    Kirilenko, Andrei
    Butler, Jimmy
    Faried, Kenneth
    Sefolosha, Thabo
    Marion, Shawn
    Calderon, Jose
    Johnson, Amir
    Batum, Nicolas
    Iguodala, Andre
    Gasol, Marc

    10 are with the team that drafted them (*see Marc Gasol above)

    Of the 10 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, only 3 (Amir Johnson, Andre Igoudala, Thabo Sefolosha) are not NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    So here we have a grand total of 6 "statistical stars" who have not been drafted by their team and didn't end up in one of the NBA elite markets.

    The players and their respective statistical ranking

    Amir Johnson 17th
    Thabo Sefolosha 14th
    Iggy 19th
    Al Jefferson 17th
    George Hill 19th
    David West 18th

    NBA Awards between those 6 - David West NBA all-star x 2, Thabo Sefolosha NBA all defensive 2nd team, Iggy NBA All-star x 1, NBA all defensive 2nd team x 1

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Lets do the same with 2012/13 NBA allstars (I won't list them all this time though)

    Of the 25 NBA allstars (including Rondo and his replacement Lopez) 14 were drafted by their team.

    Of the 11 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, only 3 (Zach Randolph, David Lee, Jrue Holiday) are not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    So to fully understand the dichotomy here:

    The 'elite' markets account for 25% of the league (8 of 30 teams)
    The 'elite' markets account for 75% of the league's 'stars' (statistical and all-star 27 of 36) that were not drafted by their team.

    *should be noted many of those names overlap in different categories (Lebron, Harden, Melo etc) so of the league's 'stars' (statistical and allstar) that were not drafted by their team, averaged per category (ie. 83% of PER stars, 77% of WS/48 stars etc), the elite markets account for 76%


    Of those players not drafted or in an elite market, all except for Thabo at 14th under WP, were in the bottom quarter of their respective stats, none were (or have ever been) allstar starters, and you'd be hard pressed to find someone who would call any of them a superstar.


    We need to stop pretending that all teams can realistically build/rebuild in the same fashion.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fully
    replied
    But if we're doing completely hypothetical situations, here's one:

    Ujiri stands pat for the entire season. Kyle Lowry gets hurt twice during the year, once around Christmas and once around the all star break. He plays 61 games, continues to clash with Casey, but still demands a 4-year, $44 million dollar contract this summer. Ujiri doesn't want to lock up an injury prone PG with a history of clashing with coaches so he lets him walk for nothing. Terrence Ross continues to struggle next year. Fields fails to get his groove back. DD improves his 3P% but only incrementally to 30%. Gay and DeRozan are still largely the inefficient combo on the wing that we saw last season. The team goes 40-42 and finishes ninth in the East. They draft 14th overall.

    I actually think my scenario is more likely than yours.
    Last edited by Fully; Mon Jul 15, 2013, 09:08 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fully
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    Here's a good one no one is talking about. What if Ujiri does move some of the pieces you guys deem nonessential and counter to a tank job but then JV and Ross have breakout seasons? Let's toss in Lowry as well for good measure and say he stays healthy all season and is very productive. That spoils your wish for a high pick and the Raptors have less value on their team than before. What then, keep on tanking for 2015? I guess that's your play because to you winning is the enimy in the short run, right?
    Well then you'd have two young studs (JV/Ross) locked up for the next 4 years on the cheap, a top ten point guard you can either trade at the deadline or re-sign if the financial side of it is right for the team, plus whatever prospects/picks/financial flexibility you were able to get from the hypothetical Gay/DD trades to continue building to it.

    I find it odd that you think the team would have "less value" on it if the Raptors moved their highest paid players and ended up winning more games. That would actually mean more value.

    Leave a comment:


  • Chr1s1anL
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    Here's a good one no one is talking about. What if Ujiri does move some of the pieces you guys deem nonessential and counter to a tank job but then JV and Ross have breakout seasons? Let's toss in Lowry as well for good measure and say he stays healthy all season and is very productive. That spoils your wish for a high pick and the Raptors have less value on their team than before. What then, keep on tanking for 2015? I guess that's your play because to you winning is the enimy in the short run, right?
    Winning is everything. I honestly deel nothing bad can come from winning.

    Leave a comment:


  • Chr1s1anL
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    Here's a good one no one is talking about. What if Ujiri does move some of the pieces you guys deem nonessential and counter to a tank job but then JV and Ross have breakout seasons? Let's toss in Lowry as well for good measure and say he stays healthy all season and is very productive. That spoils your wish for a high pick and the Raptors have less value on their team than before. What then, keep on tanking for 2015? I guess that's your play because to you winning is the enimy in the short run, right?
    Winning is everything. I honestly nothing bad can come from winning.

    Leave a comment:


  • Apollo
    replied
    Here's a good one no one is talking about. What if Ujiri does move some of the pieces you guys deem nonessential and counter to a tank job but then JV and Ross have breakout seasons? Let's toss in Lowry as well for good measure and say he stays healthy all season and is very productive. That spoils your wish for a high pick and the Raptors have less value on their team than before. What then, keep on tanking for 2015? I guess that's your play because to you winning is the enimy in the short run, right?

    Leave a comment:


  • LBF
    replied
    It's good info. But, wtf was with that "our critically acclaimed and wildly popular" like major douche alert!

    Leave a comment:


  • mcHAPPY
    replied
    "Even the harshest critics would have to say one thing, and that's that every move Otis made was to try to make the team as good as possible and to try to win that year or the next year," Van Gundy said the other day on our critically acclaimed and wildly popular Open Mike radio show. "People get really critical of GMs who go that way while you see these guys (GMs) in these long-term building projects get praised.

    "It's one of the reasons I'm really happy that Dwight went to Houston and they now have a chance to contend. I think it's accepted wisdom that the way you build a team now is to get as bad as you can and then build it back -- and that's the only way to do it. But that's not how Daryl Morey has done it. He has at no time made that effort. They (Rockets) have not had a top 10 draft pick and yet he's built this thing into now being a contender. There is another way to do it: You can try to win. You can try to give your fans a good product every year. I'm not saying the teams that go the other way are wrong; I'm just saying it's not the only way to do it."
    http://touch.orlandosentinel.com/#se.../p2p-76669197/


    Put SVG down as a tweaker.

    Leave a comment:


  • Soft Euro
    replied
    Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
    Thought this was interesting

    I don't want to sound like an asshole, or maybe I do, but at what point did they think "boy, this would be so much more exciting if we don't just stick to audio, but add some pretty pictures."

    Leave a comment:


  • Chr1s1anL
    replied
    Thought this was interesting

    Leave a comment:


  • ceez
    replied
    Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    Ross is so athletic and explosive that using him as just a spot up shooter would be a shame. He needs to work on his handles. Can't believe we have two shooting guards that can't dribble. Wtf happened to learning the basics?
    his handles aren't bad, but i agree he's much more than a spot up shooter. i'd love to see them use him the way detroit used rip hamilton. screen the other team to death and have him run around for catch and shoots.

    Leave a comment:


  • ceez
    replied
    Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Here is the status with draft picks
    http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/dra...rafts/detailed


    Teams with multiple picks:

    Charlotte: possibly 3, possibly none

    Boston: 2

    Chicago: possibly 2

    Cleveland: Possibly 2

    Miami: possibly 2, most likely 1

    Orlando: 2

    Phoenix: Possibly 2

    Philadelphia: possibly 2, possibly none

    Utah: 2
    of course boston have 2. why wouldn't they?

    Leave a comment:

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