Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

[Soft Euro]

but we need him, personally i haven't seen him choke or shy away, but even then he gets us the calls and respect from the officials and league, lowry, demar and jv dont get the same sorta respect and if were gonna move on without rudy, its gonna be difficult.

most people say that if we leggo of rudy we can build around jv. most final/playoff caliber teams build around a closer, take the lakers, they had an option between shaq or kobe and they chose kobe, even though shaq went on to win another ring. why? .. because kobe could close out games even though shaq was good at keeping the other team out of the paint (like jv) and could score on the inside (like jv) and airballed free throws (unlike jv, i appreciate the fact that he can shoot free throws and his percentage is actually pretty high) but still i wouldnt chose to build a team around jonas valaciunas. (okc and dallas are some examples too)

Rudy Gay hasn't shown a lot of this, at least if we look at this year. His combined (Memphis and Toronto) clutch stats according to nba.com for this year: 95 minutes, only 10 freethrows (not a lot of calls), shooting 22 of 63 (1/8 on threepointers) for a total of 54 points on 63 shots. Bargnani would be ashamed of those stats.

I also think a lot of the closer stuff is overrated because we tend to remember the makes. Some of the so-called closers don't have very impressive clutch stats and miss a lot of gamewinners as well; they just take zillions of shots in clutch time and the makes make the highlights.

[ezz_bee]

1. Do the Raptors need to start over and rebuild?
That depends on your definition of rebuild, but probably. We need more talent, and we need to have more talent at a better value than we currently have. The most sure fire way to get equal or better talent at a better value is through the draft/young talent, that sounds like a rebuild to me.

2. What one player would you be unwilling to part with in a rebuild?
Even in a rebuild JV is untouchable so I go with Amir Johnson

3. Is the next step for this team through trades, free agency or the draft?
Short term trades, but I see trades involving picks coming TO Toronto not OUT, so it'll be DRAFT long term.

4. What is the ceiling of the current team moving forward?
As is, I would say we have a 1 in 100 chance of getting out of the first round and 0 out of 100000000000000 chance of getting to the conference finals.

So for me the realistic ceiling is making the playoffs with a first round exit.

5. Would you be less inclined to watch a Raptors team next year that is rebuilding, again?

Being in Africa, and the sh!tty internet that goes w/ it, as well as the time zone difference makes it difficult to watch the raps regardless of how good they are. In fact, i'd (almost) prefer them to be crappy now, and amazing in a year or two when I'm back in Canada. However, they probably shouldn't make roster decisions based on me.

I'm starting to feel like a broken record but...
I also can't answer the tank or tweak poll because I fundamentally disagree that you can say one is better than the other. If I'm the GM I'm trying to evaluate what talent I can get and at what value if I tweak, vs. the talent I can get at what value if I tank. The answers to these questions are determined by the MARKET which fluctuates. You don't go into a season saying tweak or tank, you evaluate the what realistic value:talent ratio you can acquire using that strategy over the course of the year and you PICK the course of action that nets you the best talent:value ratio. The best option is to see how you can get the best value:talent ration from the market. If that's by tanking now, then tank now, if that's by tweaking now, than tweak now, if that's by tweaking this season but tanking next season than do that.

Asset management and reading the market is more beneficial than philosophical dichotomies like "tank" or "don't tank", and I think which way the raptors go depends on how Ujiri thinks he can best maximize that value:talent ratio.

[lilmamba_]

But unfortunately, he isn't a closer if you look closer. Most of his stats in the last 5 minutes of close games (within 5 points) are considerably lower than his overall stats. It's one of the myths about Gay here.

but we need him, personally i haven't seen him choke or shy away, but even then he gets us the calls and respect from the officials and league, lowry, demar and jv dont get the same sorta respect and if were gonna move on without rudy, its gonna be difficult.

most people say that if we leggo of rudy we can build around jv. most final/playoff caliber teams build around a closer, take the lakers, they had an option between shaq or kobe and they chose kobe, even though shaq went on to win another ring. why? .. because kobe could close out games even though shaq was good at keeping the other team out of the paint (like jv) and could score on the inside (like jv) and airballed free throws (unlike jv, i appreciate the fact that he can shoot free throws and his percentage is actually pretty high) but still i wouldnt chose to build a team around jonas valaciunas. (okc and dallas are some examples too)

[p00ka]

That was a very difficult issue to settle...prime one being a wealth of riches. They theoretically had 4 great players (KD, Westbrook, Ibaka and Harden) who all wanted to be paid. In addition there was Perkins who during this period was extended @ a good number. As we know there are cap limitations and in spite of this if I remember a good offer was made to Harden which he rejected leading me to believe there were other issues....wanting to be a starter/getting the ball more. Too bad.

I don't know about other issues, but it was always said that Presti had a choice to make between Ibaka and Harden. They couldn't stay away from luxury tax and pay them both. He chose Ibaka (great shot blocker, but what else?) and gave Harden up for 3 bit pieces. I guess the shine of Presti's talent evaluation genius is starting to wear off, as it's a lot easier to find an Ibaka than it is to find a Harden.

[Soft Euro]

i don't see the reason to move gay, yes we can get some good talent for him and his contract might be a bit big, but who cares. before we got him we lost games because we never had a 'closer', or the respect from the officials(remeber the time when we never got calls ). Rudy gay gives us those two points at the end of the games. without him demar cant take on that role because, everyone double teams him, and the second option was andrea (actually it was the other way around) since rudy's here he makes a big difference, unless we can get player who can close out games im not up to trading rudy.

But unfortunately, he isn't a closer if you look closer. Most of his stats in the last 5 minutes of close games (within 5 points) are considerably lower than his overall stats. It's one of the myths about Gay here.

[Karl Marx.]

Since we did not make the playoffs in 5 years, I can see why the management might feel that we have no choice but to compete for the playoffs. Besides, 40 wins should be enough to make it. However, if you take a look at the competition in the East, with Miami, Indiana, Brooklyn and Chicago looking like locks to make the second round with New York being the only serious challenger, one can agree that it would make sense to rebuild.

Decision should be made based on moves available to compete or rebuild. But based on the fact that we have kept Casey who is not a good coach and traded Bargnani for expiring contracts, I feel that we are leaning toward rebuilding. That is the reason Detroit low balled us to Gay offer.

[Fully]

I agree.

To me, tanking and starting over would be taking a trade like the one Detroit offered, which clears $17M in salary and ensures this team finishes bottom-6 (at least) next season.

'Retooler' (somewhere between 'tanker' and 'tweaker') would be more like a modified Detroit trade, where young player(s) (Monroe, Drummond, Knight, KCP, etc..) and 1st round draft pick(s) are acquired, in addition to whatever expiring contracts are required to balance salaries. It's more of a retooling or reloading, rather than a complete rebuild or minor tweak.

I certainly didn't intend for semantics to derail the thread, which I think is a fantastic idea!

I don't think I've encountered a single person who thought the Rudy Gay for Charlie V & Stuckey deal was a good idea, regardless of how steadfastly they supported a rebuild.

The idea isn't to start giving away starting calibre players for ten cents on the dollar just to try and win less than 15 games. It's about stockpiling resources - whether they be prospects, picks or financial flexibility - while improving your own 2014 draft pick in the process by decreasing the talent level on the floor in the short term. You also allow the young talent on your team to develop without a win now mandate.

Tanking, rebuilding, roster overhaul, major retooling, etc. You can call it a dozen different things. The major point is that we cease moving forward with a core of Gay/Lowry/DD and having the mentality that it's 8th seed or bust.

[Puffer]

1. Do the Raptors need to start over and rebuild?

The team has serious flaws, and needs significant pieces. I call that a rebuild, not a "blow it up" situation. I think they move either Derozan or Gay. Maybe Lowry. So two out of the starting five. I think they look for credible young players and picks to come back.

2. What one player would you be unwilling to part with in a rebuild?

JV, for the reasons already mentioned. What is the likelihood of finding a center with his abilities within the next 3 years (who will have the skill set that he will have in three years) when the Raps should become serious players in the playoffs?


3. Is the next step for this team through trades, free agency or the draft?

Trades, for youth and picks, then drafting, then free agency to plug in the odd piece if required.


4. What is the ceiling of the current team moving forward?

Best of all possible worlds, no injuries and no stupid ref calls, 6-8. Realistically 8-9.


5. Would you be less inclined to watch a Raptors team next year that is rebuilding, again?

Not with Ujiri doing the rebuilding. Young guys running and growing together under Casey's watchful eye.

[magoon]

To me, tanking and starting over would be taking a trade like the one Detroit offered, which clears $17M in salary and ensures this team finishes bottom-6 (at least) next season.

See, that's just it - all of the tankers here so far as I could see were completely in opposition to that trade because we weren't getting anything other than expiring salary. Nobody is advocating "trade everybody on the team for D-Leaguers and Euro-never-will-bes and get 7 wins next season." I don't care how many wins we get next season, frankly (I would prefer a lower lottery pick, certainly); I care that we take the real steps necessary to build a winning team, and the first step is getting rid of bloated contracts and getting some value out of them - be it picks or prospects we can develop immediately.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Already this thread is getting confusing because people have different ideas about what "start over and rebuild" means. I say yes, CalgaryRapsFan says no - but we both seem to agree that the next step is trading guys and getting good players in the 2014 draft.

I think we need to talk in more specifics, because the entire tank/rebuild debate basically boils down to one question:

"Should we trade Rudy Gay? If so, what should we reasonably expect to get for him in such a trade?"

Because we can talk about trading DeMar or Kyle or Landry Fields or whatever, but realistically, trading Rudy is the biggest bullet in our trade-gun.

I agree.

To me, tanking and starting over would be taking a trade like the one Detroit offered, which clears $17M in salary and ensures this team finishes bottom-6 (at least) next season.

'Retooler' (somewhere between 'tanker' and 'tweaker') would be more like a modified Detroit trade, where young player(s) (Monroe, Drummond, Knight, KCP, etc..) and 1st round draft pick(s) are acquired, in addition to whatever expiring contracts are required to balance salaries. It's more of a retooling or reloading, rather than a complete rebuild or minor tweak.

I certainly didn't intend for semantics to derail the thread, which I think is a fantastic idea!

[magoon]

Already this thread is getting confusing because people have different ideas about what "start over and rebuild" means. I say yes, CalgaryRapsFan says no - but we both seem to agree that the next step is trading guys and getting good players in the 2014 draft.

I think we need to talk in more specifics, because the entire tank/rebuild debate basically boils down to one question:

"Should we trade Rudy Gay? If so, what should we reasonably expect to get for him in such a trade?"

Because we can talk about trading DeMar or Kyle or Landry Fields or whatever, but realistically, trading Rudy is the biggest bullet in our trade-gun.

[The Great One]

1. Do the Raptors need to start over and rebuild?

No. I was one of the biggest 'tank commanders' two seasons ago, when JV was still playing in Europe - how great would it have been to have added Lillard or Barnes, instead of Ross? The team has some pieces to build with, has some tradeable assets and an ownership group willing to spend; a blow-it-up rebuild isn't necessary. Significant retooling should suffice.

Really good. That was tanking season for the Raptors. But it was about "building a winning culture" according to Casey.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

1. Do the Raptors need to start over and rebuild?

No. I was one of the biggest 'tank commanders' two seasons ago, when JV was still playing in Europe - how great would it have been to have added Lillard or Barnes, instead of Ross? The team has some pieces to build with, has some tradeable assets and has an ownership group willing to spend; a blow-it-up rebuild isn't necessary. Significant retooling should suffice.

2. What one player would you be unwilling to part with in a rebuild?

Valanciunas.

3. Is the next step for this team through trades, free agency or the draft?

Trades immediately (for a combination of young talent and draft picks, not just salary dumps), hopefully followed by the 2014 draft.

4. What is the ceiling of the current team moving forward?

Barring any further roster moves, this team is stuck in a 7-team fight for 3 playoff spots (#6-8) in the Eastern Conference. First-round fodder at best, #12-14 draft pick at worst.

5. Would you be less inclined to watch a Raptors team next year that is rebuilding, again?

Yes, as long as there is a clear commitment to a specific long-term team-building strategy, which is faithfully adhered to. Indecision and trying to dabble in a rebuild while also having a desire to compete now, is the death knell for bubble teams.


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As for the poll, I'd pick something between 'tanker' and 'tweaker', since I think more than minor tweaks are needed, while extreme blow-it-up tanking is not an absolute necessity.

[Dino4life]

http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2013/...-5-whats-next/


Here goes:

1. Do the Raptors need to start over and rebuild?


2. What one player would you be unwilling to part with in a rebuild?


3. Is the next step for this team through trades, free agency or the draft?


4. What is the ceiling of the current team moving forward?


5. Would you be less inclined to watch a Raptors team next year that is rebuilding, again?

1. Depends what you mean by start over. If its burn everything to the ground then NO. this is too drastic for a team this young, that's what i see NY doing if this year fails again. You need to identify who has a place on the team 4 years down the road and get rid of everyone else.

2. Valanciunas is everything you hope a lottery pick to be, Talented, hard working, improving before your eyes at a position of need. There is no sense in trading valanciunas for the hope pf getting another version of him maybe at a different position. I wouldn't even trade him for Dwight Howard or Roy hibbert today because they would carry us in the 7-11 range every year. JV is the only untouchable but i would like to keep ross, Derozan, and Amir also. Everyone else can go i couldn't care less and they could all walk out within 2 seasons anyways so why invest much more in them ?

3. Free agency is not option because of our cap situation and team reputation. Draft is always best when you have many of them but if you only have your own every year its a very slow process, so the first step is Trade to get picks or recently drafted players.

4. IF everything goes right 5 seed with a first round exit. with good luck for us and bad luck for the others.

5. Tell you the truth the only time where the raptors were pleasant to watch for competitive reasons was for a week after the rudy gay trade. other than that they looked like a rebuilding team the whole season. I found great pleasure in watching Valanciunas, Ed Davis, and Amir grow. (#FREEEDDAVIS) was hoping to see more from Ross. So i dont see what the problem is if we decide going with developing youth.

[Bendit]

Axel above was pretty succint and I agree. As I have written before I would be quite happy being in a Boston position going forward. Never really had the confidence in the BC rebuild journey the last few years. Even now, we have yet to see even part of MU's hand and in a masochistic way it is quite exciting. I hope he doesnt disappoint with the next major move.

ps...could we have a revision in the poll categs.? I hate the "Tanker" connotation. Suggestion: Rebuilder or even Rebuilder/Tanker. Thanks.