Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

[mcHAPPY]

What I would send back to Paul Jones:

As for Raptors fans clamouring for the tank to roll through Toronto: forget it. It may be the consolation prize in February if the team is doing poorly. But Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri is on the record saying, “we’re not going to give players away and I’m not sure how you teach winning by losing.”

I'm not sure what that quote from Masai is suppose to mean. If anything Jones has taken an interpretation of the words. Here is another interpretation: the Raptors can still trade players away and receive valuable assets in return and, as Ujiri trading Melo showed in Denver, a team can be better after trading away its best player.

The Raptors will play to win. And why not? Toronto is eyeing its longest playoff drought—at five seasons and counting. Playing for ping pong balls means a sixth-straight campaign without the post-season, and then you’re likely looking at another couple of seasons before the next chance at the playoffs. This isn’t Boston or Philadelphia, both of the Celtics and Sixers have played on Mother’s Day in recent seasons.

Toronto has been playing for the playoffs for 3 of those 5 seasons. 2010/11 and 2011/12 were the only two years Toronto never made a legit attempt to compete. In those two years they acquired JV in the draft and they could have had another franchise talent in Drummond. Unfortunately the goal became saving the previous regimes job and bloated contract after bloated contract was handed out and the rush to accelerate began. Jones is right, this isn't Boston or Philly. Those teams have been in recent memory where Toronto is struggling to achieve: the playoffs. They built playoff teams (and championship team in Boston case) the right way and they are rebuilding the right way. Drafting is only part of the equation: accumulating assets and financial flexibility are the others.

You can tank all you want, get high picks for consecutive seasons and still never secure a transcendent player. For the teams that choose to tank, their losing may start a downward spiral before an honest effort starts to supply some positive results. In the immortal words of former New York Jets head coach Herman Edwards,”you play to win the game.”

B*ullshit. Coaches and players play to win games. Management don't play the games though. Players and coaches go game to game. Management look at season to season. Good management will transform assets in to success - no matter which way they chose to build as the examples in Jones' article showed. The issue in Toronto is the overall talent is missing, there are no expendable valuable assets with the current core, and there is no financial flexibility to take in a lopsided trade. Anyone remember what New Jersey/Brooklyn looked like on the last game of the 2011-12 season? Where are they now?


**Thank goodness the games are almost here!**

[mcHAPPY]

Paul Jones, Sportsnet: Raps, Celtics shouldn't tank for Wiggins

If you hold up all eight fingers and one thumb, you have the exact number of teams that have won the title since 1980.

Pick any championship team of the last three decades and immediately—with the possible exception of the 2004 Detroit Pistons—a transcendent player comes to mind:

The best way to find a franchise player is through the draft. And thus, for teams at the bottom of the pack, the notion of “tanking” is born.

Still, one current NBA general manager tells me he figures somewhere in the neighbourhood of 20 teams won’t be trying to win when opening night hits Oct. 29th—they already know they can’t. But he points out that although tanking can give you a great chance to select a good player, the odds of winning that way in the long run are still bad. You can win the top pick and still not get a once-in-a-generation-type player—there just aren’t that many of them. And you don’t win titles in sports with young players, particularly in the NBA where you need a star to hook your cart to.

But what is the best way to build? Acquire the draft picks, develop them and try to create a culture of winning. Realize that some of those picks might be traded along the way to make the team stronger, and that if you are fortunate enough to have some success, regardless of where you are on the map, that winning may help you attract a few key free agents and change the perception of your franchise league-wide.

As for Raptors fans clamouring for the tank to roll through Toronto: forget it. It may be the consolation prize in February if the team is doing poorly. But Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri is on the record saying, “we’re not going to give players away and I’m not sure how you teach winning by losing.”

The Raptors will play to win. And why not? Toronto is eyeing its longest playoff drought—at five seasons and counting. Playing for ping pong balls means a sixth-straight campaign without the post-season, and then you’re likely looking at another couple of seasons before the next chance at the playoffs. This isn’t Boston or Philadelphia, both of the Celtics and Sixers have played on Mother’s Day in recent seasons.

You can tank all you want, get high picks for consecutive seasons and still never secure a transcendent player. For the teams that choose to tank, their losing may start a downward spiral before an honest effort starts to supply some positive results. In the immortal words of former New York Jets head coach Herman Edwards,”you play to win the game.”

http://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/n...ndrew-wiggins/

[mcHAPPY]

Despite all the hoopla of the presser and media day, I still think the end result is a blow up of the roster and a crazy aggressive rebuild that ends is a marquee free agent.....

***yeah, yeah, likely more hope talking than reality***

.... I find it strange that:

• Leiweke cans Colangelo because they disagree on the state of the roster and direction of the franchise
• Ujiri is brought in who shares vision with Leiweke
• Drake is brought in who shares vision with Masai and Tim

.... yet status-quo is on the agenda?

On his fandom

“My favourite memories all stem from the Vince Carter era. It was an amazing feeling to have a player of that magnitude here, a star. I remember the first time I ever saw him featured in a music video. This may be a weird memory, but it’s the first time sports and music crossed over [in my mind], and I saw him featured in a big music video. I was like, ‘Man, we really have a star player. People want to put him in videos.’ It was exciting … I used to come to the games; I wasn’t sitting courtside. They were all very memorable. I want to create those memories for young kids as well. I want to get the guys we have. I want to bring exciting players here. I want to give them those memories. I want everyone to be wearing Raptors stuff … I also want to have the merchandise through the roof. I want people to be proud and patriotic in support of these teams.”

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2013/...e-cheap-seats/

JV is going to be a great basketball player but I don't think he is ever going to be an exciting star outside of Lithuania.

For the Raptors to get those exciting star players there are only two options:
1) draft,
2) free agency.

In today's NBA, you don't get the star free agents without other stars or a really good supporting cast along with cap space. As the roster currently stands there are no other stars and there is no cap space.

We'll see how it plays out but with a franchise C already on the roster, a total rebuild in 2 years is possible in my opinion assuming the team guts the dead weight sooner than later.

[blackjitsu]

Relevant: ESPN Insider's assessments of all the Raptors:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/171985053/Untitled-Document

Funny, they had no clue that Landry had that injury.

[magoon]

Relevant: ESPN Insider's assessments of all the Raptors:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/171985053/Untitled-Document

[Eric Akshinthala]

I think the plan is to try and contend with this team. If it seems to be working about 35-40 games into the season, stay the course or else dismantle the team via trade/s. I don't know if one can call it re-building 'cause it's essentially Colangelo's team. Personally I don't like the plan but it seems to be the plan.

[mcHAPPY]

I apologize for the double post.

The other thread is more about the timeline for Raptor relevancy to emerge.

This thread, while same quotes, I am asking do you think Casey's comments give any indication, one way or another, of his plans?

Is rebuilding on and tanking off? Or vice versa?

Now, a week from the start of training camp, Ujiri’s done stirring. He’s going to watch the drink settle.

“Rather than make some crazy decisions, we want to see what we have,” Ujiri says. “We’re not signing players on long term deals now. We’re going to . . . see how we start off the season and go from there. I know it sounds very simple, but I think right now simple is best for us.”

There is no talk of a tank in order to take a long shot at Andrew Wiggins, or as Ujiri elliptically refers to him, “the kid from Kansas.” There are no playoff promises.

In the wider view, every army on the move needs a destination. It’s put to Ujiri that the 2016 all-star game — a moment MLSE hopes to use in order to re-announce the franchise to the league — is an obvious target.

“I think it has to be around that time that you at least see what the picture is going to look like. Listen, we’re not trying to buy time here. We have to see what we have and advance from there. But yes, I like that timeframe, where you should at least know that your team is emerging.”

If the tank’s out, is it possible to build a winner without top-five picks?

“Tough,” Ujiri says. “Also possible, but it’s tough.”

This is the future. Hamstrung by existing deals pushing against the cap ceiling, Ujiri is wrestling with the right now. Make a plan, take a step, reassess, make a new plan.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/raptor...ise_kelly.html

[magoon]

I think you're over valung Gay. In all those deals you're asking for a guy who may be just as good as Gay in 2-5 years time, plus you're asking for a pick in each case which is probably in the lotto, plus you're bringing in another guy who can ball.

Do you remember what Clangelo moved to bring in Gay? A PG on the decline, a young guy who's not proven a thing and a second rounder. If MJ gets anything like you've discussed then schedule the parade immediately.

No way they get that and I say no way that those particular teams are looking to make offers in camp when currently they're more likely to be in the lotto than in the playoffs. I see playoff teams wanting Gay.

In the first place, you're retroactively undervaluing what was sent out for Gay, namely Jose (an extremely efficient floor general who can run a team's offense all by himself, contributes floor spacing as an extremely strong three-point shooter and who had a PER of 18.8 last year - AND was an expiring $10M contract), and Ed (an analytically-beloved player who contributes on both ends very efficiently). Plus the pick and taking away Hamed Haddadi's useless contract from Memphis. Memphis got two strong above-average players, a second-rounder, expiring salary and cleared dead weight off their bench. They did very well in that trade.

What I tried to do in the hypothetical trades was create situations where we took about the same amount of overall value by taking bad players (Gordon from Charlotte, Villaneuva/Stuckey from Detroit, Ariza and Vesely from Washington, etc.), but getting a first-rounder to compensate. One player with upside or one good player rather than two and taking as much crap as is possible to make it work.

In the second place, I agree that playoff-hunting teams will be looking for Gay, but I again state: with the exception of Charlotte it is not really debatable that every team I listed is trying to make playoffs now and has shifted gears into win-now mode.

[Apollo]

As others have pointed out: a proper tank isn't about intentionally losing, because nobody at floor level will intentionally lose for you. Coaches and players want to win as many games as possible because wins are good for their resumes.

Intentionally losing is tanking. No one is talking about executives asking players or coaches to lose; I don't recall reading a single post about that. The executives intentionally lose by putting flawed teams on the floor in an effort to get the top pick or a higher pick at the least. Those coaches and players will try their best because their reputations are based on what they do on the floor, point is their talent level will hopefully prevent them from winning much at all.

As others have pointed out, in context I meant ASAP where it is defined as "as soon as we can get good value for them." Right now we likely can't - teams have gone out and acquired most of their free agents and are waiting for training camps to fill out their rosters. I mean, it's possible Masai is quietly talking with teams about a trade - and really, teams keep their feelers open at all times anyway so he probably knows who's interested - but I don't think it's likely that we see a trade happen for reasonable value until training camps begin. At that time teams will start to get a sense of what they have and what they might need. Charlotte might take a look at their core, see how Zeller and Kemba and Henderson are playing with Al Jefferson and be impressed, but decide that MKG just isn't developing fast enough at small forward... trade potential opens up. Detroit might decide that their frontcourt is good, but they need a quality point guard... trade potential opens up. Cleveland might decide that Anthony Bennett is the real deal but he needs to be played at power forward rather than small forward... trade potential opens up. Or maybe Cleveland decides Bennett was a mistake, or maybe Detroit decides they need to play Josh Smith at PF and Greg Monroe needs to be moved for an upgrade at another position. And so forth.

My comment was directed at somebody who wanted the trigger pulled ASAP and described that as being before camp if possible.

And really, what team is going to get into camp and suddenly realize they need $18M/yr Rudy Gay right away? That's not a small acqusition to say the least. I'm not buying this arguement at all. Making a move for a guy like Rudy Gay is a large move and I see many more takers closer to the deadline.

CHARLOTTE: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the top-8 protected Detroit 2014 first-rounder, and Ben Gordon.
DETROIT (assuming they move Josh Smith to PF): Greg Monroe, Detroit's 2016 first-rounder, Charlie Villaneuva and Rodney Stuckey.
MILWAUKEE: Ersan Ilyasova, Ekpe Udoh, 2014 first-rounder. (I'd prefer John Henson to Udoh but Ilyasova is good enough that it's hard to justify.)
WASHINGTON (if Washington thinks Otto Porter looks to be a bust or needs seasoning): Porter, Trevor Ariza, Jan Vesely, 2014 first.
MINNESOTA (not an ideal partner for us at all): Derrick Williams, Ronny Turiaf, Dante Cunningham, 2014 first.

I think you're over valung Gay. In all those deals you're asking for a guy who may be just as good as Gay in 2-5 years time, plus you're asking for a pick in each case which is probably in the lotto, plus you're bringing in another guy who can ball.

Do you remember what Clangelo moved to bring in Gay? A PG on the decline, a young guy who's not proven a thing and a second rounder. If MJ gets anything like you've discussed then schedule the parade immediately.

No way they get that and I say no way that those particular teams are looking to make offers in camp when currently they're more likely to be in the lotto than in the playoffs. I see playoff teams wanting Gay.

[magoon]

There are other details that make little sense in some of those suggested trade scenarios, but expecting bottom feeders (I don't care what they say about chasing playoffs) to trade a 2014 1st rounder seems like kinda fantasy territory.

With the exception of Charlotte, all of those teams are definitely chasing playoffs this year and seriously so (and we continue to disagree about Charlotte, who I think want to try). Cleveland, Detroit and Washington will all contend for the last two playoff spots in the east and might even have a shot at fifth or sixth.

Minnesota's season last year was awful because they were absolutely shredded by injuries, but this year Rubio and K-Love should be healthy, and they've added Kevin Martin and Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng; they're arguably better than the Pelicans are and everybody agrees the Pelicans are contending.

Milwaukee really shouldn't be trying to make playoffs because they're mediocre at best, but they're a special case because their ownership wants them in the playoffs so they can make a better case to the city and state for a new arena. They will make bad trades in the hopes of a playoff run (see last year's awful Tobias Harris for J.J. Redick trade).

[TRX]

Hypothetically, if they're going to be trading for Rudy, why would they insist on holding onto their pick? You don't trade for Rudy Gay if you want to be bottom of the barrel.

[p00ka]

There are other details that make little sense in some of those suggested trade scenarios, but expecting bottom feeders (I don't care what they say about chasing playoffs) to trade a 2014 1st rounder seems like kinda fantasy territory. It's not like any of them would actually think they're missing that piece to contend next year.

[magoon]

Is he required to make moves counter to tanking as well? Just wondering because that's what he's been doing beyond what he's been saying.

As others have pointed out: a proper tank isn't about intentionally losing, because nobody at floor level will intentionally lose for you. Coaches and players want to win as many games as possible because wins are good for their resumes. A proper tank is about preventing playoff success. Utah is doing an excellent job of this right now - they're going to be starting young players, but nobody can say they're intentionally losing because they're just giving their young guys the ball for now. Every team has to do that at some point every five years or so if you're not New York or LA or some other prized free agent destination, and Utah is doing it this year. They'll probably lose a lot of games, but at the same time their young core (Kanter, Favors, Burke, Hayward) is going to get a lot of starting experience, and at the end of the year Utah will most likely have a premium lottery pick to complement their young core (as well as a lot of cap space and Golden State's first-round pick to boot). It's a premium example of a targeted speed tank.

Sorry but did I not say "closer to the deadline"? ASAP is not closer to the deadline. I get why you want it to happen right away, you want them to lose as much as possible so you're probably not too concerned about what they get back?

As others have pointed out, in context I meant ASAP where it is defined as "as soon as we can get good value for them." Right now we likely can't - teams have gone out and acquired most of their free agents and are waiting for training camps to fill out their rosters. I mean, it's possible Masai is quietly talking with teams about a trade - and really, teams keep their feelers open at all times anyway so he probably knows who's interested - but I don't think it's likely that we see a trade happen for reasonable value until training camps begin. At that time teams will start to get a sense of what they have and what they might need. Charlotte might take a look at their core, see how Zeller and Kemba and Henderson are playing with Al Jefferson and be impressed, but decide that MKG just isn't developing fast enough at small forward... trade potential opens up. Detroit might decide that their frontcourt is good, but they need a quality point guard... trade potential opens up. Cleveland might decide that Anthony Bennett is the real deal but he needs to be played at power forward rather than small forward... trade potential opens up. Or maybe Cleveland decides Bennett was a mistake, or maybe Detroit decides they need to play Josh Smith at PF and Greg Monroe needs to be moved for an upgrade at another position. And so forth.

Training camps and the pre-season will be important, both for other teams to decide what they have and for Masai to see what he has (although the latter is mostly a known quantity at this point).

Better yet, tell me what is the minimum you would accept for Rudy Gay?

One good young player with upside, one first-round draft pick (2014 if possible), and garbage to make the money work, but ideally nothing that expires later than 2015.

For example (and note most of these trades probably have us send something else along with Rudy - maybe Quincy Acy and/or the rights to Tomislav Zubcic), this is the sort of thing I'd be looking for from teams potentially looking to upgrade at SF for a potential playoff bid:

CHARLOTTE: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the top-8 protected Detroit 2014 first-rounder, and Ben Gordon.
CLEVELAND: Tristan Thompson, Cleveland's 2014 first rounder, Alonzo Gee, someone else (Cleveland is difficult to make the money work at this point).
DETROIT (assuming they move Josh Smith to PF): Greg Monroe, Detroit's 2016 first-rounder, Charlie Villaneuva and Rodney Stuckey.
MILWAUKEE: Ersan Ilyasova, Ekpe Udoh, 2014 first-rounder. (I'd prefer John Henson to Udoh but Ilyasova is good enough that it's hard to justify.)
WASHINGTON (if Washington thinks Otto Porter looks to be a bust or needs seasoning): Porter, Trevor Ariza, Jan Vesely, 2014 first.
MINNESOTA (not an ideal partner for us at all): Derrick Williams, Ronny Turiaf, Dante Cunningham, 2014 first.

[TRX]

That's one possibility, but I don't see him waiting until trade deadline. If you make a decision re: tanking or aiming for playoffs at the trade deadline, you're effectively choosing at the worst possible time to do so because regardless of what path you take, you want to take it as soon as you can. Waiting until the trade deadline to decide whether to tank or aim for playoffs means either the shallow end of the lottery or the shallow end of the playoffs.

I think it happens sooner, one way or the other. I think the preseason, much like last year, will matter greatly. There are a lot of teams looking to see if their new plans for this year will work out or if they need one more key piece. Rudy will attract more attention as we get closer to the beginning of the season; so will Kyle (a whole lot of teams with an untested solution at point guard looking to contend right now), maybe also DeMar and Ross. And if Ujiri decides to give the season some rope, he's only going to go 20 or 30 games, tops, before making his move.

I think you could've taken it slightly out of context (see bolded above, from same post). I think what he means by "as soon as you can" is as soon as you can make a reasonable assessment of which way the season is goingl - not literally as soon as physically possible. Or as white men can't jump put it: "It's better to make a move when the team is 10-15 than to wait until they're 20-25, that is, if you believe the team's ceiling is mediocre." I could be wrong but that's how I interpreted it in the greater context.

[white men can't jump]

You must have missed this post then:

ASAP, as soon as you can, same thing.

I think there's still got to be some patience though. ASAP after a little bit to evaluate the team. I'd be a bit surprised if something happened in the preseason. But I think with most teams, you pretty much know what you've got about 20 to 25 games in.