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Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

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  • Bendit wrote: View Post
    Haven't u heard? Tanking is bad karma....just use "rebuilding" as the term and all will be well....less connotation with the dark side.
    Not the first time I've seen this kind of condescending hissy fit over the terminology in the past couple of days. Is that what the debate has gotten down to? Perhaps it has more to do with character than karma.

    Comment


    • Matt52 wrote: View Post
      I agree with what you are saying but I'm not up for trading DD/Lowry/Gay just for cap space. Proven young talent and 1st round picks need to be coming back.
      oh yeah absolutely
      @sweatpantsjer

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      • Matt52 wrote: View Post
        Rebuild says: That window I'm talking about is not for our current guys outside the players on rookie deals. We have 3 years before we have to extend Jonas. In those three years we have to acquire as much talent as we can.
        this is a really excellent point
        @sweatpantsjer

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        • Matt52 wrote: View Post
          Here is the status with draft picks
          http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/dra...rafts/detailed


          Teams with multiple picks:

          Charlotte: possibly 3, possibly none

          Boston: 2

          Chicago: possibly 2

          Cleveland: Possibly 2

          Miami: possibly 2, most likely 1

          Orlando: 2

          Phoenix: Possibly 2

          Philadelphia: possibly 2, possibly none

          Utah: 2
          of course boston have 2. why wouldn't they?
          @sweatpantsjer

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          • Mediumcore wrote: View Post
            Ross is so athletic and explosive that using him as just a spot up shooter would be a shame. He needs to work on his handles. Can't believe we have two shooting guards that can't dribble. Wtf happened to learning the basics?
            his handles aren't bad, but i agree he's much more than a spot up shooter. i'd love to see them use him the way detroit used rip hamilton. screen the other team to death and have him run around for catch and shoots.
            @sweatpantsjer

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            • Thought this was interesting

              @Chr1st1anL

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              • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                Thought this was interesting

                I don't want to sound like an asshole, or maybe I do, but at what point did they think "boy, this would be so much more exciting if we don't just stick to audio, but add some pretty pictures."

                Comment


                • "Even the harshest critics would have to say one thing, and that's that every move Otis made was to try to make the team as good as possible and to try to win that year or the next year," Van Gundy said the other day on our critically acclaimed and wildly popular Open Mike radio show. "People get really critical of GMs who go that way while you see these guys (GMs) in these long-term building projects get praised.

                  "It's one of the reasons I'm really happy that Dwight went to Houston and they now have a chance to contend. I think it's accepted wisdom that the way you build a team now is to get as bad as you can and then build it back -- and that's the only way to do it. But that's not how Daryl Morey has done it. He has at no time made that effort. They (Rockets) have not had a top 10 draft pick and yet he's built this thing into now being a contender. There is another way to do it: You can try to win. You can try to give your fans a good product every year. I'm not saying the teams that go the other way are wrong; I'm just saying it's not the only way to do it."
                  http://touch.orlandosentinel.com/#se.../p2p-76669197/


                  Put SVG down as a tweaker.

                  Comment


                  • It's good info. But, wtf was with that "our critically acclaimed and wildly popular" like major douche alert!
                    If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

                    Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

                    Comment


                    • Here's a good one no one is talking about. What if Ujiri does move some of the pieces you guys deem nonessential and counter to a tank job but then JV and Ross have breakout seasons? Let's toss in Lowry as well for good measure and say he stays healthy all season and is very productive. That spoils your wish for a high pick and the Raptors have less value on their team than before. What then, keep on tanking for 2015? I guess that's your play because to you winning is the enimy in the short run, right?

                      Comment


                      • Apollo wrote: View Post
                        Here's a good one no one is talking about. What if Ujiri does move some of the pieces you guys deem nonessential and counter to a tank job but then JV and Ross have breakout seasons? Let's toss in Lowry as well for good measure and say he stays healthy all season and is very productive. That spoils your wish for a high pick and the Raptors have less value on their team than before. What then, keep on tanking for 2015? I guess that's your play because to you winning is the enimy in the short run, right?
                        Winning is everything. I honestly nothing bad can come from winning.
                        @Chr1st1anL

                        Comment


                        • Apollo wrote: View Post
                          Here's a good one no one is talking about. What if Ujiri does move some of the pieces you guys deem nonessential and counter to a tank job but then JV and Ross have breakout seasons? Let's toss in Lowry as well for good measure and say he stays healthy all season and is very productive. That spoils your wish for a high pick and the Raptors have less value on their team than before. What then, keep on tanking for 2015? I guess that's your play because to you winning is the enimy in the short run, right?
                          Winning is everything. I honestly deel nothing bad can come from winning.
                          @Chr1st1anL

                          Comment


                          • Apollo wrote: View Post
                            Here's a good one no one is talking about. What if Ujiri does move some of the pieces you guys deem nonessential and counter to a tank job but then JV and Ross have breakout seasons? Let's toss in Lowry as well for good measure and say he stays healthy all season and is very productive. That spoils your wish for a high pick and the Raptors have less value on their team than before. What then, keep on tanking for 2015? I guess that's your play because to you winning is the enimy in the short run, right?
                            Well then you'd have two young studs (JV/Ross) locked up for the next 4 years on the cheap, a top ten point guard you can either trade at the deadline or re-sign if the financial side of it is right for the team, plus whatever prospects/picks/financial flexibility you were able to get from the hypothetical Gay/DD trades to continue building to it.

                            I find it odd that you think the team would have "less value" on it if the Raptors moved their highest paid players and ended up winning more games. That would actually mean more value.

                            Comment


                            • But if we're doing completely hypothetical situations, here's one:

                              Ujiri stands pat for the entire season. Kyle Lowry gets hurt twice during the year, once around Christmas and once around the all star break. He plays 61 games, continues to clash with Casey, but still demands a 4-year, $44 million dollar contract this summer. Ujiri doesn't want to lock up an injury prone PG with a history of clashing with coaches so he lets him walk for nothing. Terrence Ross continues to struggle next year. Fields fails to get his groove back. DD improves his 3P% but only incrementally to 30%. Gay and DeRozan are still largely the inefficient combo on the wing that we saw last season. The team goes 40-42 and finishes ninth in the East. They draft 14th overall.

                              I actually think my scenario is more likely than yours.
                              Last edited by Fully; Mon Jul 15, 2013, 10:08 AM.

                              Comment


                              • From Matt52's Van Gundy quote:

                                I think it's accepted wisdom that the way you build a team now is to get as bad as you can and then build it back -- and that's the only way to do it. But that's not how Daryl Morey has done it. He has at no time made that effort.
                                Prior to he Harden deal, Morey had a team of rookies and second year players + Asik/Lin/Martin/Delfino.

                                That team had no shot at the playoffs. What Morey did with the Harden deal was impressive, moreso if he did it with the foresight that Harden would be available prior to the season's start. But lets not pretend Morey wasn't set up for a tank year had Harden not been available or gone his way.

                                There is another way to do it: You can try to win. You can try to give your fans a good product every year. I'm not saying the teams that go the other way are wrong; I'm just saying it's not the only way to do it.
                                Yes (get as bad as you can) is not the only way to do it - if your team is a top end NBA market. Then your team has a legitimate shot at building a contender any way you choose. Sign a big free agent, build up tradeable assets and wait for either a disgruntled star or nervous small market team whose superstar is a year away from UFA. Tank. Keep overpriced expiring deals on the books waiting for that team who is ready to rebuild.

                                But what about the other half of the NBA?

                                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                Here is the list of the top 20 players by WS/48.

                                LeBron James-MIA
                                Kevin Durant-OKC
                                Chris Paul-LAC
                                Tyson Chandler - NYK
                                Tony Parker-SAS
                                James Harden-HOU
                                Marc Gasol-MEM
                                Tiago Splitter-SAS
                                Blake Griffin-LAC
                                Russell Westbrook-OKC
                                Dwyane Wade-MIA
                                Tim Duncan-SAS
                                Brook Lopez-BRK
                                Carmelo Anthony-NYK
                                Deron Williams-BRK
                                Serge Ibaka-OKC
                                Stephen Curry-GSW
                                David West-IND
                                George Hill-IND
                                Chris Bosh-MIA

                                11 are with the team that drafted them (Marc Gasol may be an exception, but had his rights traded for as he was not yet in the NBA)

                                Of the 9 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, Only 2 (David West and George Hill) are not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

                                -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                Here is a list of the top 20 players by PER (played atleast 30 minutes)

                                LeBron James, MIA
                                Kevin Durant, OKC
                                Chris Paul, LAC
                                Carmelo Anthony, NY
                                Brook Lopez, BKN
                                Tim Duncan, SA
                                Dwyane Wade, MIA
                                Russell Westbrook, OKC
                                Tony Parker, SA
                                Kobe Bryant, LAL
                                James Harden, HOU
                                Blake Griffin, LAC
                                Anthony Davis, NO
                                Anderson Varejao, CLE
                                Kyrie Irving, CLE
                                Stephen Curry, GS
                                Al Jefferson, UTAH (Charlotte now)
                                John Wall, WSH
                                LaMarcus Aldridge, POR
                                Deron Williams, BKN

                                14 are with the team that drafted them.

                                Of the 6 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, Only 1 player (Al Jefferson) is not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

                                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                Here is the list of top 20 players by WP

                                Durant, Kevin
                                James, LeBron
                                Paul, Chris
                                Harden, James
                                Chandler, Tyson
                                Ibaka, Serge
                                Curry, Stephen
                                Noah, Joakim
                                Conley, Mike
                                Wade, Dwyane
                                Kirilenko, Andrei
                                Butler, Jimmy
                                Faried, Kenneth
                                Sefolosha, Thabo
                                Marion, Shawn
                                Calderon, Jose
                                Johnson, Amir
                                Batum, Nicolas
                                Iguodala, Andre
                                Gasol, Marc

                                10 are with the team that drafted them (*see Marc Gasol above)

                                Of the 10 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, only 3 (Amir Johnson, Andre Igoudala, Thabo Sefolosha) are not NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas

                                -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                So here we have a grand total of 6 "statistical stars" who have not been drafted by their team and didn't end up in one of the NBA elite markets.

                                The players and their respective statistical ranking

                                Amir Johnson 17th
                                Thabo Sefolosha 14th
                                Iggy 19th
                                Al Jefferson 17th
                                George Hill 19th
                                David West 18th

                                NBA Awards between those 6 - David West NBA all-star x 2, Thabo Sefolosha NBA all defensive 2nd team, Iggy NBA All-star x 1, NBA all defensive 2nd team x 1

                                -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                Lets do the same with 2012/13 NBA allstars (I won't list them all this time though)

                                Of the 25 NBA allstars (including Rondo and his replacement Lopez) 14 were drafted by their team.

                                Of the 11 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, only 3 (Zach Randolph, David Lee, Jrue Holiday) are not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

                                -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                So to fully understand the dichotomy here:

                                The 'elite' markets account for 25% of the league (8 of 30 teams)
                                The 'elite' markets account for 75% of the league's 'stars' (statistical and all-star 27 of 36) that were not drafted by their team.

                                *should be noted many of those names overlap in different categories (Lebron, Harden, Melo etc) so of the league's 'stars' (statistical and allstar) that were not drafted by their team, averaged per category (ie. 83% of PER stars, 77% of WS/48 stars etc), the elite markets account for 76%


                                Of those players not drafted or in an elite market, all except for Thabo at 14th under WP, were in the bottom quarter of their respective stats, none were (or have ever been) allstar starters, and you'd be hard pressed to find someone who would call any of them a superstar.


                                We need to stop pretending that all teams can realistically build/rebuild in the same fashion.

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