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Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

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  • Axel wrote: View Post
    To me that isn't the point of trading away Gay/DD/etc. It isn't losing on purpose, it is accepting the reality (in our opinion) that the current roster make-up isn't the answer, and that to move forward we need to acquire different assets, preferably young players on rookie deals that form a cohesive unit. The fact that the 2014 draft class is so strong is simply the argument for doing it now and not meandering in the 7-10 range for a couple more seasons before tearing it down then. Again, based on our opinion of the reality of this roster.

    If you truely believe that this roster can get us a Championship, then of course you wouldn't want to tear it all down and start over. But for many Raptors fans, we see a flawed roster with bloated contracts and minimal upside. Getting rid of those players for picks, prospects is better in the long-term, and if it nets us a top 5 pick, even better. I would honestly be happier if we could load up on 2015 picks (say 3 first rounders) and build a cohesive roster that finds the playoff threshold before the luxury cap threshold.
    I know this current roster is going nowhere as is. Not a person in here is saying otherwise as far as I can tell.

    Tanking means losing on purposes. That's what it is. You can make moves that hurt your position in the standings and not be a tanker. Tanking is operating under the objective to lose as much as possible to get that top pick.

    Hell, contenders make plays which hurt their position in the standings. It's called resting guys for the playoffs. When they're doing that they're not intentionally trying to lose though.

    Comment


    • Apollo wrote: View Post
      I know this current roster is going nowhere as is. Not a person in here is saying otherwise as far as I can tell.

      Tanking means losing on purposes. That's what it is. You can make moves they hurt your position in the standings and not be a tanker. Tanking is operating under the objective to lose as much as possible to get that top pick.
      I honestly don't know what moves, ideas, or proposals you are commenting about that fit your criteria. I haven't seen someone post to try and lose games on purpose so that we can get the top pick. I have seen lots of proposals that talk about trading away Gay or DD (which are immediately met with "not another tanking proposal") that benefit the team with either young talent, picks, financial flexibility or, most likely, all of the above.
      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

      Comment


      • Come on, it's even in the thread title. There is a poll at the top of the page. Nine people voted for it so far. I'm not going to pick through the behemoth to find you posts but they're in here; people talking about tanking for the 2014 draft; shedding cap so that the team can use flexibility to overpay new players.

        Comment


        • Actually the title says rebuild or re-tool....
          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

          Comment


          • Well there was a time when it didn't say that. Read the poll. Who are the nine people who voted yes? Maybe they can direct you to their posts?

            Comment


            • It's rebuild now while the likely benefit from rebuilding (a higher draft pick) will have the maximum value. That isn't the same thing as Tank for 2014 to me.

              All drafts aren't created equal. Raps fans know this more than most teams....
              2002 - Yao Ming
              2003 - LeBron James
              2004 - Dwight Howard
              2005 - Andrew Bogut
              2006 - Andrea Bargnani
              2007 - Greg Oden
              2008 - Derrick Rose
              2009 - Blake Griffin
              2010 - John Wall
              2011 - Kyrie Irving

              ...so why not time the necessary rebuild, over-haul, roster-cohesiveness-maximization or whatever you want to call it with one of the best drafts of all-time?
              Heir, Prince of Cambridge

              If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

              Comment


              • Apollo wrote: View Post
                Well there was a time when it didn't say that. Read the poll. Who are the nine people who voted yes? Maybe they can direct you to their posts?
                Dude, there's only two options for the poll.

                If you aren't for "tinkering" then by default, you have to vote "tanking"... That doesn't necessarily mean that you're all for giving away the Raptors talent at a huge discount just to try and win 15 games. I feel like I've said this a thousand times now but I think most people who are in the rebuilding group are doing so under the assumption that tearing this roster down would return a nice haul of picks, prospects and flexibility. Seriously... I haven't read anyone, on either side of the argument, that is looking for this team to strictly do a "salary dump" of Gay, Derozan, etc.
                Last edited by Fully; Mon Jul 15, 2013, 01:48 PM.

                Comment


                • Axel wrote: View Post
                  It's rebuild now while the likely benefit from rebuilding (a higher draft pick) will have the maximum value. That isn't the same thing as Tank for 2014 to me.

                  All drafts aren't created equal. Raps fans know this more than most teams....
                  2002 - Yao Ming
                  2003 - LeBron James
                  2004 - Dwight Howard
                  2005 - Andrew Bogut
                  2006 - Andrea Bargnani
                  2007 - Greg Oden
                  2008 - Derrick Rose
                  2009 - Blake Griffin
                  2010 - John Wall
                  2011 - Kyrie Irving

                  ...so why not time the necessary rebuild, over-haul, roster-cohesiveness-maximization or whatever you want to call it with one of the best drafts of all-time?
                  Your definition of tanking is different from a lot of people in here and all of the media in that case. Tanking is operating under the intention of losing to enhance the odds in the lotto.

                  The moves Ujiri makes may lead to the team taking a step back but they may improve too. The point is he's making decisions with long term improvement in mind and not short term losing. He's not making plays for the lotto. He said that already.

                  Fully wrote: View Post
                  Dude, there's only two options for the poll.

                  If you aren't for "tinkering" then by default, you have to vote "tanking"... That doesn't necessarily mean that you're all for giving away the Raptors talent at a huge discount just to try and win 15 games.
                  Tanking means intentionally losing so if you're not for that then you must be for tinkering. Tinkering means making changes but does not imply making changes with short term losing being a primary short term objective.

                  Comment


                  • Apollo wrote: View Post
                    You definition of tanking is different from a lot of people in here and all of the media in that case. Tanking is operating under the intention of losing to enhance the odd in the lotto.

                    The moves Ujiri makes may lead to the team taking a step back but they may improve too. The point is he's making decisions with long term improvement in mind and not short term losing. He's not making plays for the lotto. He said that already.
                    If he goes into this season with this roster, then he is likely in the lotto anyway. The team would have to have zero injuries at PG or in the front court to make the play-offs. So we are in the lottery anyways, and I'd be fine with the 12th or 13th pick in 2014, but I'd prefer to have it without a plethora of over-paid wingers who can't shoot the ball from 3 (or in Landry's case, at all) and ideally get a couple of 2015 first rounders in moving those over-paid wingers.
                    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                    Comment


                    • Not really.

                      He replaced an injury prone, low efficiency big man with few big man skills for a solid big man who plays tough defense and rebounds the ball; a guy who fits his coach's system.

                      He has Rudy Gay from day one.

                      He has a stronger, more experienced JV and Ross both ready to take a step forward I hope.

                      DeRozan should be improved.

                      He added a guy who can hit threes off the bench, another need.

                      This team looks better than last year's team to me. Last year's team missed the playoffs by four games did they not?

                      Really having a guy who fits the team in the paint to help JV and Amir is huge. Having Gay from the onset is huge. This team will have a lot more chemistry this year.

                      Comment


                      • Craiger wrote: View Post
                        From Matt52's Van Gundy quote:



                        Prior to he Harden deal, Morey had a team of rookies and second year players + Asik/Lin/Martin/Delfino.

                        That team had no shot at the playoffs. What Morey did with the Harden deal was impressive, moreso if he did it with the foresight that Harden would be available prior to the season's start. But lets not pretend Morey wasn't set up for a tank year had Harden not been available or gone his way.



                        Yes (get as bad as you can) is not the only way to do it - if your team is a top end NBA market. Then your team has a legitimate shot at building a contender any way you choose. Sign a big free agent, build up tradeable assets and wait for either a disgruntled star or nervous small market team whose superstar is a year away from UFA. Tank. Keep overpriced expiring deals on the books waiting for that team who is ready to rebuild.

                        But what about the other half of the NBA?

                        ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        Here is the list of the top 20 players by WS/48.

                        LeBron James-MIA
                        Kevin Durant-OKC
                        Chris Paul-LAC
                        Tyson Chandler - NYK
                        Tony Parker-SAS
                        James Harden-HOU
                        Marc Gasol-MEM
                        Tiago Splitter-SAS
                        Blake Griffin-LAC
                        Russell Westbrook-OKC
                        Dwyane Wade-MIA
                        Tim Duncan-SAS
                        Brook Lopez-BRK
                        Carmelo Anthony-NYK
                        Deron Williams-BRK
                        Serge Ibaka-OKC
                        Stephen Curry-GSW
                        David West-IND
                        George Hill-IND
                        Chris Bosh-MIA

                        11 are with the team that drafted them (Marc Gasol may be an exception, but had his rights traded for as he was not yet in the NBA)

                        Of the 9 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, Only 2 (David West and George Hill) are not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

                        -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        Here is a list of the top 20 players by PER (played atleast 30 minutes)

                        LeBron James, MIA
                        Kevin Durant, OKC
                        Chris Paul, LAC
                        Carmelo Anthony, NY
                        Brook Lopez, BKN
                        Tim Duncan, SA
                        Dwyane Wade, MIA
                        Russell Westbrook, OKC
                        Tony Parker, SA
                        Kobe Bryant, LAL
                        James Harden, HOU
                        Blake Griffin, LAC
                        Anthony Davis, NO
                        Anderson Varejao, CLE
                        Kyrie Irving, CLE
                        Stephen Curry, GS
                        Al Jefferson, UTAH (Charlotte now)
                        John Wall, WSH
                        LaMarcus Aldridge, POR
                        Deron Williams, BKN

                        14 are with the team that drafted them.

                        Of the 6 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, Only 1 player (Al Jefferson) is not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

                        ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        Here is the list of top 20 players by WP

                        Durant, Kevin
                        James, LeBron
                        Paul, Chris
                        Harden, James
                        Chandler, Tyson
                        Ibaka, Serge
                        Curry, Stephen
                        Noah, Joakim
                        Conley, Mike
                        Wade, Dwyane
                        Kirilenko, Andrei
                        Butler, Jimmy
                        Faried, Kenneth
                        Sefolosha, Thabo
                        Marion, Shawn
                        Calderon, Jose
                        Johnson, Amir
                        Batum, Nicolas
                        Iguodala, Andre
                        Gasol, Marc

                        10 are with the team that drafted them (*see Marc Gasol above)

                        Of the 10 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, only 3 (Amir Johnson, Andre Igoudala, Thabo Sefolosha) are not NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas

                        -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        So here we have a grand total of 6 "statistical stars" who have not been drafted by their team and didn't end up in one of the NBA elite markets.

                        The players and their respective statistical ranking

                        Amir Johnson 17th
                        Thabo Sefolosha 14th
                        Iggy 19th
                        Al Jefferson 17th
                        George Hill 19th
                        David West 18th

                        NBA Awards between those 6 - David West NBA all-star x 2, Thabo Sefolosha NBA all defensive 2nd team, Iggy NBA All-star x 1, NBA all defensive 2nd team x 1

                        -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        Lets do the same with 2012/13 NBA allstars (I won't list them all this time though)

                        Of the 25 NBA allstars (including Rondo and his replacement Lopez) 14 were drafted by their team.

                        Of the 11 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, only 3 (Zach Randolph, David Lee, Jrue Holiday) are not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

                        -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        So to fully understand the dichotomy here:

                        The 'elite' markets account for 25% of the league (8 of 30 teams)
                        The 'elite' markets account for 75% of the league's 'stars' (statistical and all-star 27 of 36) that were not drafted by their team.

                        *should be noted many of those names overlap in different categories (Lebron, Harden, Melo etc) so of the league's 'stars' (statistical and allstar) that were not drafted by their team, averaged per category (ie. 83% of PER stars, 77% of WS/48 stars etc), the elite markets account for 76%


                        Of those players not drafted or in an elite market, all except for Thabo at 14th under WP, were in the bottom quarter of their respective stats, none were (or have ever been) allstar starters, and you'd be hard pressed to find someone who would call any of them a superstar.


                        We need to stop pretending that all teams can realistically build/rebuild in the same fashion.
                        A fine example of how raw stats can be used (manipulated) to support just about any argument. You're suggesting the Raptors should pay attention to this reasoning in deciding that tanking is the way to go? This type of "plan" is supported by the Top 20 in these various stat categories? Really? S&^t, I hate raw stats being used for s&^t like this, but you're saying use these stats to support your tank argument in making serious, long term plans for the organization. In turn:

                        Use of WS/48

                        which puts Splitter (over Duncan even), Lopez, Ibaka, West, George Hill..............
                        Over Kobe (whose tied with Verajeo who played 25 games), as well as all of these that follow.
                        Even puts Calderon and Ed Davis (tied with Anthony Davis) over Millsap, Horford, Paul George, Noah, Dirk, Z-Bo, Lawson, Pierce, Garnett, Hibbert, etc.

                        Use of PER

                        Which puts Lopez, Anthony Davis, Verajao (with 25 games), Al Jefferson above: West, Bosh, Millsap, Horford, Dirk, Marc Gasol (below Hickson for fk sake), Dwight, Garnett, Pierce, Noah, Rondo, Z-Bo, Lawson, Josh Smith, Hibbert, Paul George, Lillard, Rubio, etc.

                        Use of WP

                        Which puts Ibaka, Sefolosha, Conley, AK47, Faried, Marion, Calderon, Amir
                        over Duncan, Kobe, Z-Bo, Westbrook, Horford, Tony Parker, Bosh, Rubio, etc.

                        AND puts JJ Hickson at same number as Duncan,
                        Tristan Thompson over Horford, Parker, Bosh, Rubio, Hibbert, Aldridge, etc.
                        Kyle Lowry over Pierce, West, Rondo, Rubio, Hibbert, Aldridge, etc.
                        Ed Davis over Rondo, Rubio, Hibbert, Aldridge, etc.

                        THESE ARE STATS THAT YOU FEEL SUPPORT A TANK ARGUMENT? WHATEVER.

                        Comment


                        • Based on the last 3 years, Lowry will get hurt and will only play 67 games this year. You feel good about rolling out Buycks & Stone for 15 games this year?
                          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                          Comment


                          • Apollo wrote: View Post
                            Your definition of tanking is different from a lot of people in here and all of the media in that case. Tanking is operating under the intention of losing to enhance the odds in the lotto.

                            The moves Ujiri makes may lead to the team taking a step back but they may improve too. The point is he's making decisions with long term improvement in mind and not short term losing. He's not making plays for the lotto. He said that already.



                            Tanking means intentionally losing so if you're not for that then you must be for tinkering. Tinkering means making changes but does not imply making changes with short term losing being a primary short term objective.
                            I had this same discussion with magoon in posts 684-686... apparently the pro-tankers aren't really in favor of traditional 'tanking' and those of us in favor of 'retooling' (somewhere between 'tanking' and 'tweaking'), should actually be voting for "tanker" on this poll... semantics and subjective definitions have caused endless debate in this thread!

                            For the record, I enjoyed the discussion with magoon and I think it shed a lot of light on the middle ground where I think a lot of posters on both sides of the debate really fall. I think MU would also favor this middle ground area, where they might win with the current core, might lose with the current core, or might rebuild the core as long as good offers (players? picks? cap relief? some/all of the above?) are received for players in the current core.
                            Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Mon Jul 15, 2013, 02:11 PM.

                            Comment


                            • Axel wrote: View Post
                              Based on the last 3 years, Lowry will get hurt and will only play 67 games this year. You feel good about rolling out Buycks & Stone for 15 games this year?
                              Can I borrow your crystal ball for next week's lottery?

                              Comment


                              • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                                I had this same discussion with magoon in posts 684-686... apparently the pro-tankers aren't really in favor of traditional 'tanking' and those of us in favor of 'retooling' (somewhere between 'tanking' and 'tinkering'), should actually be voting for 'tanking' on this poll... semantics and subjective definitions have caused endless debate in this thread!
                                Well, this is too bad but good to point out.

                                The fundamental principle here is intent. If the intent is to lose for the lotto then that's tanking. If not then it's something else, pick a label but don't call it tanking.

                                I would reset that poll and start over if I could remember how I did it once in the past. No time right now to tinker with it.

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