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Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

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  • magoon wrote: View Post
    You're missing option #3, which is "we start the season off average." Which is also probably the most likely option.
    That would be option number 2. Average is worse than Terrible... making it Terribly Terrible.
    The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

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    • Apollo wrote: View Post
      Is he required to make moves counter to tanking as well? Just wondering because that's what he's been doing beyond what he's been saying.



      Seems like we need to have it again if you think ASAP is the best time to offload players.



      Sorry but did I not say "closer to the deadline"? ASAP is not closer to the deadline. I get why you want it to happen right away, you want them to lose as much as possible so you're probably not too concerned about what they get back?

      Better yet, tell me what is the minimum you would accept for Rudy Gay?
      Maybe I'm missing something but where did anybody say anything about as soon as possible? The only thing I read anybody say was earlier in the season is better as opposed to closer to the deadline.

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      • You must have missed this post then:
        magoon wrote: View Post
        If you make a decision re: tanking or aiming for playoffs at the trade deadline, you're effectively choosing at the worst possible time to do so because regardless of what path you take, you want to take it as soon as you can.
        ASAP, as soon as you can, same thing.

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        • Apollo wrote: View Post
          You must have missed this post then:

          ASAP, as soon as you can, same thing.
          I think there's still got to be some patience though. ASAP after a little bit to evaluate the team. I'd be a bit surprised if something happened in the preseason. But I think with most teams, you pretty much know what you've got about 20 to 25 games in.
          Last edited by white men can't jump; Fri Jul 19, 2013, 05:09 PM.

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          • magoon wrote: View Post
            That's one possibility, but I don't see him waiting until trade deadline. If you make a decision re: tanking or aiming for playoffs at the trade deadline, you're effectively choosing at the worst possible time to do so because regardless of what path you take, you want to take it as soon as you can. Waiting until the trade deadline to decide whether to tank or aim for playoffs means either the shallow end of the lottery or the shallow end of the playoffs.

            I think it happens sooner, one way or the other. I think the preseason, much like last year, will matter greatly. There are a lot of teams looking to see if their new plans for this year will work out or if they need one more key piece. Rudy will attract more attention as we get closer to the beginning of the season; so will Kyle (a whole lot of teams with an untested solution at point guard looking to contend right now), maybe also DeMar and Ross. And if Ujiri decides to give the season some rope, he's only going to go 20 or 30 games, tops, before making his move.
            I think you could've taken it slightly out of context (see bolded above, from same post). I think what he means by "as soon as you can" is as soon as you can make a reasonable assessment of which way the season is goingl - not literally as soon as physically possible. Or as white men can't jump put it: "It's better to make a move when the team is 10-15 than to wait until they're 20-25, that is, if you believe the team's ceiling is mediocre." I could be wrong but that's how I interpreted it in the greater context.

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            • Apollo wrote: View Post
              Is he required to make moves counter to tanking as well? Just wondering because that's what he's been doing beyond what he's been saying.
              As others have pointed out: a proper tank isn't about intentionally losing, because nobody at floor level will intentionally lose for you. Coaches and players want to win as many games as possible because wins are good for their resumes. A proper tank is about preventing playoff success. Utah is doing an excellent job of this right now - they're going to be starting young players, but nobody can say they're intentionally losing because they're just giving their young guys the ball for now. Every team has to do that at some point every five years or so if you're not New York or LA or some other prized free agent destination, and Utah is doing it this year. They'll probably lose a lot of games, but at the same time their young core (Kanter, Favors, Burke, Hayward) is going to get a lot of starting experience, and at the end of the year Utah will most likely have a premium lottery pick to complement their young core (as well as a lot of cap space and Golden State's first-round pick to boot). It's a premium example of a targeted speed tank.

              Sorry but did I not say "closer to the deadline"? ASAP is not closer to the deadline. I get why you want it to happen right away, you want them to lose as much as possible so you're probably not too concerned about what they get back?
              As others have pointed out, in context I meant ASAP where it is defined as "as soon as we can get good value for them." Right now we likely can't - teams have gone out and acquired most of their free agents and are waiting for training camps to fill out their rosters. I mean, it's possible Masai is quietly talking with teams about a trade - and really, teams keep their feelers open at all times anyway so he probably knows who's interested - but I don't think it's likely that we see a trade happen for reasonable value until training camps begin. At that time teams will start to get a sense of what they have and what they might need. Charlotte might take a look at their core, see how Zeller and Kemba and Henderson are playing with Al Jefferson and be impressed, but decide that MKG just isn't developing fast enough at small forward... trade potential opens up. Detroit might decide that their frontcourt is good, but they need a quality point guard... trade potential opens up. Cleveland might decide that Anthony Bennett is the real deal but he needs to be played at power forward rather than small forward... trade potential opens up. Or maybe Cleveland decides Bennett was a mistake, or maybe Detroit decides they need to play Josh Smith at PF and Greg Monroe needs to be moved for an upgrade at another position. And so forth.

              Training camps and the pre-season will be important, both for other teams to decide what they have and for Masai to see what he has (although the latter is mostly a known quantity at this point).

              Better yet, tell me what is the minimum you would accept for Rudy Gay?
              One good young player with upside, one first-round draft pick (2014 if possible), and garbage to make the money work, but ideally nothing that expires later than 2015.

              For example (and note most of these trades probably have us send something else along with Rudy - maybe Quincy Acy and/or the rights to Tomislav Zubcic), this is the sort of thing I'd be looking for from teams potentially looking to upgrade at SF for a potential playoff bid:

              CHARLOTTE: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the top-8 protected Detroit 2014 first-rounder, and Ben Gordon.
              CLEVELAND: Tristan Thompson, Cleveland's 2014 first rounder, Alonzo Gee, someone else (Cleveland is difficult to make the money work at this point).
              DETROIT (assuming they move Josh Smith to PF): Greg Monroe, Detroit's 2016 first-rounder, Charlie Villaneuva and Rodney Stuckey.
              MILWAUKEE: Ersan Ilyasova, Ekpe Udoh, 2014 first-rounder. (I'd prefer John Henson to Udoh but Ilyasova is good enough that it's hard to justify.)
              WASHINGTON (if Washington thinks Otto Porter looks to be a bust or needs seasoning): Porter, Trevor Ariza, Jan Vesely, 2014 first.
              MINNESOTA (not an ideal partner for us at all): Derrick Williams, Ronny Turiaf, Dante Cunningham, 2014 first.

              Comment


              • There are other details that make little sense in some of those suggested trade scenarios, but expecting bottom feeders (I don't care what they say about chasing playoffs) to trade a 2014 1st rounder seems like kinda fantasy territory. It's not like any of them would actually think they're missing that piece to contend next year.

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                • Hypothetically, if they're going to be trading for Rudy, why would they insist on holding onto their pick? You don't trade for Rudy Gay if you want to be bottom of the barrel.

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                  • p00ka wrote: View Post
                    There are other details that make little sense in some of those suggested trade scenarios, but expecting bottom feeders (I don't care what they say about chasing playoffs) to trade a 2014 1st rounder seems like kinda fantasy territory.
                    With the exception of Charlotte, all of those teams are definitely chasing playoffs this year and seriously so (and we continue to disagree about Charlotte, who I think want to try). Cleveland, Detroit and Washington will all contend for the last two playoff spots in the east and might even have a shot at fifth or sixth.

                    Minnesota's season last year was awful because they were absolutely shredded by injuries, but this year Rubio and K-Love should be healthy, and they've added Kevin Martin and Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng; they're arguably better than the Pelicans are and everybody agrees the Pelicans are contending.

                    Milwaukee really shouldn't be trying to make playoffs because they're mediocre at best, but they're a special case because their ownership wants them in the playoffs so they can make a better case to the city and state for a new arena. They will make bad trades in the hopes of a playoff run (see last year's awful Tobias Harris for J.J. Redick trade).

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                    • magoon wrote: View Post
                      As others have pointed out: a proper tank isn't about intentionally losing, because nobody at floor level will intentionally lose for you. Coaches and players want to win as many games as possible because wins are good for their resumes.
                      Intentionally losing is tanking. No one is talking about executives asking players or coaches to lose; I don't recall reading a single post about that. The executives intentionally lose by putting flawed teams on the floor in an effort to get the top pick or a higher pick at the least. Those coaches and players will try their best because their reputations are based on what they do on the floor, point is their talent level will hopefully prevent them from winning much at all.

                      magoon wrote: View Post
                      As others have pointed out, in context I meant ASAP where it is defined as "as soon as we can get good value for them." Right now we likely can't - teams have gone out and acquired most of their free agents and are waiting for training camps to fill out their rosters. I mean, it's possible Masai is quietly talking with teams about a trade - and really, teams keep their feelers open at all times anyway so he probably knows who's interested - but I don't think it's likely that we see a trade happen for reasonable value until training camps begin. At that time teams will start to get a sense of what they have and what they might need. Charlotte might take a look at their core, see how Zeller and Kemba and Henderson are playing with Al Jefferson and be impressed, but decide that MKG just isn't developing fast enough at small forward... trade potential opens up. Detroit might decide that their frontcourt is good, but they need a quality point guard... trade potential opens up. Cleveland might decide that Anthony Bennett is the real deal but he needs to be played at power forward rather than small forward... trade potential opens up. Or maybe Cleveland decides Bennett was a mistake, or maybe Detroit decides they need to play Josh Smith at PF and Greg Monroe needs to be moved for an upgrade at another position. And so forth.
                      My comment was directed at somebody who wanted the trigger pulled ASAP and described that as being before camp if possible.

                      And really, what team is going to get into camp and suddenly realize they need $18M/yr Rudy Gay right away? That's not a small acqusition to say the least. I'm not buying this arguement at all. Making a move for a guy like Rudy Gay is a large move and I see many more takers closer to the deadline.

                      CHARLOTTE: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the top-8 protected Detroit 2014 first-rounder, and Ben Gordon.
                      DETROIT (assuming they move Josh Smith to PF): Greg Monroe, Detroit's 2016 first-rounder, Charlie Villaneuva and Rodney Stuckey.
                      MILWAUKEE: Ersan Ilyasova, Ekpe Udoh, 2014 first-rounder. (I'd prefer John Henson to Udoh but Ilyasova is good enough that it's hard to justify.)
                      WASHINGTON (if Washington thinks Otto Porter looks to be a bust or needs seasoning): Porter, Trevor Ariza, Jan Vesely, 2014 first.
                      MINNESOTA (not an ideal partner for us at all): Derrick Williams, Ronny Turiaf, Dante Cunningham, 2014 first.
                      I think you're over valung Gay. In all those deals you're asking for a guy who may be just as good as Gay in 2-5 years time, plus you're asking for a pick in each case which is probably in the lotto, plus you're bringing in another guy who can ball.

                      Do you remember what Clangelo moved to bring in Gay? A PG on the decline, a young guy who's not proven a thing and a second rounder. If MJ gets anything like you've discussed then schedule the parade immediately.

                      No way they get that and I say no way that those particular teams are looking to make offers in camp when currently they're more likely to be in the lotto than in the playoffs. I see playoff teams wanting Gay.

                      Comment


                      • Apollo wrote: View Post
                        I think you're over valung Gay. In all those deals you're asking for a guy who may be just as good as Gay in 2-5 years time, plus you're asking for a pick in each case which is probably in the lotto, plus you're bringing in another guy who can ball.

                        Do you remember what Clangelo moved to bring in Gay? A PG on the decline, a young guy who's not proven a thing and a second rounder. If MJ gets anything like you've discussed then schedule the parade immediately.

                        No way they get that and I say no way that those particular teams are looking to make offers in camp when currently they're more likely to be in the lotto than in the playoffs. I see playoff teams wanting Gay.
                        In the first place, you're retroactively undervaluing what was sent out for Gay, namely Jose (an extremely efficient floor general who can run a team's offense all by himself, contributes floor spacing as an extremely strong three-point shooter and who had a PER of 18.8 last year - AND was an expiring $10M contract), and Ed (an analytically-beloved player who contributes on both ends very efficiently). Plus the pick and taking away Hamed Haddadi's useless contract from Memphis. Memphis got two strong above-average players, a second-rounder, expiring salary and cleared dead weight off their bench. They did very well in that trade.

                        What I tried to do in the hypothetical trades was create situations where we took about the same amount of overall value by taking bad players (Gordon from Charlotte, Villaneuva/Stuckey from Detroit, Ariza and Vesely from Washington, etc.), but getting a first-rounder to compensate. One player with upside or one good player rather than two and taking as much crap as is possible to make it work.

                        In the second place, I agree that playoff-hunting teams will be looking for Gay, but I again state: with the exception of Charlotte it is not really debatable that every team I listed is trying to make playoffs now and has shifted gears into win-now mode.

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                        • I apologize for the double post.

                          The other thread is more about the timeline for Raptor relevancy to emerge.

                          This thread, while same quotes, I am asking do you think Casey's comments give any indication, one way or another, of his plans?

                          Is rebuilding on and tanking off? Or vice versa?


                          Now, a week from the start of training camp, Ujiri’s done stirring. He’s going to watch the drink settle.

                          “Rather than make some crazy decisions, we want to see what we have,” Ujiri says. “We’re not signing players on long term deals now. We’re going to . . . see how we start off the season and go from there. I know it sounds very simple, but I think right now simple is best for us.”

                          There is no talk of a tank in order to take a long shot at Andrew Wiggins, or as Ujiri elliptically refers to him, “the kid from Kansas.” There are no playoff promises.
                          In the wider view, every army on the move needs a destination. It’s put to Ujiri that the 2016 all-star game — a moment MLSE hopes to use in order to re-announce the franchise to the league — is an obvious target.

                          “I think it has to be around that time that you at least see what the picture is going to look like. Listen, we’re not trying to buy time here. We have to see what we have and advance from there. But yes, I like that timeframe, where you should at least know that your team is emerging.”

                          If the tank’s out, is it possible to build a winner without top-five picks?

                          Tough,” Ujiri says. “Also possible, but it’s tough.”

                          This is the future. Hamstrung by existing deals pushing against the cap ceiling, Ujiri is wrestling with the right now. Make a plan, take a step, reassess, make a new plan.


                          http://www.thestar.com/sports/raptor...ise_kelly.html

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                          • I think the plan is to try and contend with this team. If it seems to be working about 35-40 games into the season, stay the course or else dismantle the team via trade/s. I don't know if one can call it re-building 'cause it's essentially Colangelo's team. Personally I don't like the plan but it seems to be the plan.
                            Attitude Is A Choice.

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                            • Relevant: ESPN Insider's assessments of all the Raptors:

                              http://www.scribd.com/doc/171985053/Untitled-Document

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                              • magoon wrote: View Post
                                Relevant: ESPN Insider's assessments of all the Raptors:

                                http://www.scribd.com/doc/171985053/Untitled-Document
                                Funny, they had no clue that Landry had that injury.

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