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Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

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  • Apollo
    replied
    You must have missed this post then:
    magoon wrote: View Post
    If you make a decision re: tanking or aiming for playoffs at the trade deadline, you're effectively choosing at the worst possible time to do so because regardless of what path you take, you want to take it as soon as you can.
    ASAP, as soon as you can, same thing.

    Leave a comment:


  • TRX
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    Is he required to make moves counter to tanking as well? Just wondering because that's what he's been doing beyond what he's been saying.



    Seems like we need to have it again if you think ASAP is the best time to offload players.



    Sorry but did I not say "closer to the deadline"? ASAP is not closer to the deadline. I get why you want it to happen right away, you want them to lose as much as possible so you're probably not too concerned about what they get back?

    Better yet, tell me what is the minimum you would accept for Rudy Gay?
    Maybe I'm missing something but where did anybody say anything about as soon as possible? The only thing I read anybody say was earlier in the season is better as opposed to closer to the deadline.

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  • enlightenment
    replied
    magoon wrote: View Post
    You're missing option #3, which is "we start the season off average." Which is also probably the most likely option.
    That would be option number 2. Average is worse than Terrible... making it Terribly Terrible.

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  • Apollo
    replied
    magoon wrote: View Post
    Which he is required to do, so that's meaningless. Philly and Utah and Boston wouldn't say they're tanking either.
    Is he required to make moves counter to tanking as well? Just wondering because that's what he's been doing beyond what he's been saying.

    magoon wrote: View Post
    Which is just wise, but we've had that discussion before many times.
    Seems like we need to have it again if you think ASAP is the best time to offload players.

    magoon wrote: View Post
    Last year, the James Harden trade, the Dwight Howard trade and the three-team trade which sent Robin Lopez to New Orleans all took place before the season even began. The Rudy Gay trade happened almost a month before the trade deadline. At the actual deadline the only significant trades were the Houston/Sacramento trade and the Milwaukee/Orlando trade and neither one was exactly a blockbuster.
    Sorry but did I not say "closer to the deadline"? ASAP is not closer to the deadline. I get why you want it to happen right away, you want them to lose as much as possible so you're probably not too concerned about what they get back?

    Better yet, tell me what is the minimum you would accept for Rudy Gay?

    Leave a comment:


  • magoon
    replied
    enlightenment wrote: View Post
    We have two possible directions to go in my opinion, both of which are pretty solid options.
    You're missing option #3, which is "we start the season off average." Which is also probably the most likely option.

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  • enlightenment
    replied
    We have two possible directions to go in my opinion, both of which are pretty solid options.

    1) We start off the season HOT. Demar has a 3pt shot, Rudy is lighting the league up, Val is dominating, Lowry is in shape, etc. We are looking much better than last year. The value of ALL our players immediately reaches a peak. Before the deadline, Rudy + Lowry get shipped out for high picks and perhaps a young stud here and there. All the momentum is taken away from our sails, and we spend the rest of the season going into the Lottery.

    This is my favorite move because it means optimizing the value of our assets, then tanking and still getting a high pick(s?)

    2) We start off the season TERRIBLE. Demar has failed to improve, Rudy is volume shooter, Val isnt as dominating, Lowry is lazy, etc. We keep our core, dont trade anything at all, and tank the rest of the way. Hopefully Rudy and Lowry get injuries somewhere along the line, we find ourselves in the top 5 of the lottery, adding a potential AllStar to this core group.

    Leave a comment:


  • magoon
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    He essentially already said he's not going to tank
    Which he is required to do, so that's meaningless. Philly and Utah and Boston wouldn't say they're tanking either.

    and he said he's not going to give assets away.
    Which is just wise, but we've had that discussion before many times.

    Most teams almost have their rosters settled and at this point history indicates you don't see many trades until you get close to the trade deadline.
    Last year, the James Harden trade, the Dwight Howard trade and the three-team trade which sent Robin Lopez to New Orleans all took place before the season even began. The Rudy Gay trade happened almost a month before the trade deadline. At the actual deadline the only significant trades were the Houston/Sacramento trade and the Milwaukee/Orlando trade and neither one was exactly a blockbuster. Two years ago, the Chris Paul trade happened just before the season began, as did the Tyson Chandler trade. The only significant trade at the deadline was the Golden State/Milwaukee trade where Monta Ellis and Andrew Bogut swapped teams and in that trade GS was tanking so they had no downside (and Milwaukee was doing what they were always doing, running the treadmill).

    You have to go back three years to find really significant moves at the trade deadline - the Carmelo trade, the Deron Williams trade, etc. And in those cases you had unhappy star players who were demanding trades and a lockout looming the next year, so owners were a lot less wary about making big deals. Go to the 2009-10 season and again it's the same: the trade deadline is where small tinkering happens, and that's been the case for years now.

    Teams look to be trending more conservative towards the deadline, and frankly that's probably the wisest move since you generally don't want to shake up team chemistry that late in the season for what is most likely only a moderate difference in standing (since in between 2/3 and 3/4 of the games have already been played) unless the payoff is huge. But any trade involving Rudy and Kyle is not a tinkering-level trade: it's substantially altering your starting lineup, particularly considering the amount of money involved in moving Rudy.

    I don't think it makes sense for Ujiri to move them late in the season. I think if it happens, assuming it can happen (e.g. for a reasonable value), then it happens earlier.

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  • white men can't jump
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    He essentially already said he's not going to tank and he said he's not going to give assets away. Most teams almost have their rosters settled and at this point history indicates you don't see many trades until you get close to the trade deadline. If they were to phone it in Rudy Gay would traded and any team looking at him is probably a playoff team and wanting to see what they have right now before they make a move, especially a move where their not going to get a sweetheart deal. The demand for Raptors players should be highest around the deadline, which means that's where they can extract the most value. That's my take anyway.

    Anyway, the Raptors seemingly always contend for the playoffs in deep draft classes. My guess right now based on the team that have is 36-41 wins.
    I think if the GM can evaluate his team well, it's better to move quickly. It's better to make a move when the team is 10-15 than to wait until they're 20-25, that is, if you believe the team's ceiling is mediocre. I mean, either way.....

    If you think the mediocre ceiling is a reason to tank, you don't want to already have 20 wins...the top lottery teams will have around that range at best. You wait that long and you still end up stuck probably in the late lottery.

    If you think despite the mediocre ceiling, if with the pieces you have you can upgrade somewhere, most obviously PG or PF, and build around such a pick up and JV, it also makes sense to do it early. Get the player, develop team chemistry as soon as possible, hope to make a playoff push, even a low-seeded one, with what you think is a roster with a higher ceiling.

    *Edit: I also think that the early evaluation should be easier with a team like the Raptors. Almost the whole rotation is the same. They really have no excuse for a slow start.
    Last edited by white men can't jump; Fri Jul 19, 2013, 11:54 AM.

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  • white men can't jump
    replied
    magoon wrote: View Post
    That's one possibility, but I don't see him waiting until trade deadline. If you make a decision re: tanking or aiming for playoffs at the trade deadline, you're effectively choosing at the worst possible time to do so because regardless of what path you take, you want to take it as soon as you can. Waiting until the trade deadline to decide whether to tank or aim for playoffs means either the shallow end of the lottery or the shallow end of the playoffs.

    I think it happens sooner, one way or the other. I think the preseason, much like last year, will matter greatly. There are a lot of teams looking to see if their new plans for this year will work out or if they need one more key piece. Rudy will attract more attention as we get closer to the beginning of the season; so will Kyle (a whole lot of teams with an untested solution at point guard looking to contend right now), maybe also DeMar and Ross. And if Ujiri decides to give the season some rope, he's only going to go 20 or 30 games, tops, before making his move.
    I agree with these points. I want to also add a couple of thoughts.

    Firstly, I think the Lowry point is really good, especially with his expiring contract. I feel like he'd be the first domino to fall (or sharing this honour as part of a package). And I honestly think even Ujiri isn't sure who would be dealing next. But I can't believe he'd trade Lowry and have that be the only move for the season.

    Secondly, teams also will want to wait around 20 or 30 games to also evaluate the 2014 draft class. Lots of teams unwilling to deal any picks whatsoever right now. Even with a strong draft, you'd think a couple of teams will change their minds if they feel they really want to add something in-season.

    Also, I feel like even if Ujiri decides to blow it up in some fashion, one of DeMar or Rudy would probably still be on the roster come the end of the season. Dealing all the other scoring threats, however inefficient, is going to make life very hard for JV this season.

    Leave a comment:


  • Apollo
    replied
    Maximizing Value

    He essentially already said he's not going to tank and he said he's not going to give assets away. Most teams almost have their rosters settled and at this point history indicates you don't see many trades until you get close to the trade deadline. If they were to phone it in Rudy Gay would be traded and any team looking at him is probably a playoff team and wanting to see what they have right now before they make a move, especially a move where their not going to get a sweetheart deal. The demand for Raptors players should be highest around the deadline, which means that's where they can extract the most value. That's my take.

    Anyway, the Raptors seemingly always contend for the playoffs in deep draft classes. My guess right now based on the team that have is 36-41 wins.

    Leave a comment:


  • magoon
    replied
    Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    I think Ujiri will make a move one way or another by trade deadline and either tank or improve. By playing the wait and see game through the off season though I get the feeling he will try and improve and not tank.
    That's one possibility, but I don't see him waiting until trade deadline. If you make a decision re: tanking or aiming for playoffs at the trade deadline, you're effectively choosing at the worst possible time to do so because regardless of what path you take, you want to take it as soon as you can. Waiting until the trade deadline to decide whether to tank or aim for playoffs means either the shallow end of the lottery or the shallow end of the playoffs.

    I think it happens sooner, one way or the other. I think the preseason, much like last year, will matter greatly. There are a lot of teams looking to see if their new plans for this year will work out or if they need one more key piece. Rudy will attract more attention as we get closer to the beginning of the season; so will Kyle (a whole lot of teams with an untested solution at point guard looking to contend right now), maybe also DeMar and Ross. And if Ujiri decides to give the season some rope, he's only going to go 20 or 30 games, tops, before making his move.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mediumcore
    replied
    I think Ujiri will make a move one way or another by trade deadline and either tank or improve. By playing the wait and see game through the off season though I get the feeling he will try and improve and not tank.

    Leave a comment:


  • magoon
    replied
    Relevant:

    Ujiri wants to play the patient, see-what-I-have card. If he thinks he is not getting decent offers for his players currently, there is little risk in holding on to them. If they play well, perhaps their value goes up. And they might win some games, which Raptors fans have heard great things about.

    But to pretend there is no risk here is to cover your eyes and ignore the lessons of the past. If the Raptors head into training camp with this roster, a slight improvement from last year’s 34-48 record is perhaps the most likely result. And if the team ultimately decides it wants to “suck to be good,” as Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment president Tim Leiweke delicately termed it, any early success would run counter to such a philosophy. (Especially since Andrew Wiggins wants to be a Raptor!) Toronto has lost out on some draft slots by winning meaningless games at the end of the season, and a decent start could be the difference between the 11th pick and the fourth pick, which matters quite a bit.

    There is a risk of failure with Ujiri’s chosen path, because there is a risk of failure with all paths. By limiting himself to minor moves and preaching patience, the Raptors GM is not putting himself on the spot in the same way he would if he dismantled the roster Bryan Colangelo gave him or significantly added to it. He is betting that some of those pieces, such as Gay and Lowry, will produce either more wins or trade pieces in the future than they would at this point. But even if he is right, he is still opening himself up to risk. In the asset-obsessed NBA, there is always a potential loss lurking; there are no true win-win situations.

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  • Craiger
    replied
    Just to play a little devil's advocate here (paraphrased):

    "Bargnani is a star" - "come hell or high water" - "we need shooters"

    If there is anything Casey is not, its a fool.

    Its the Captain that goes down with the ship, not the Lieutenant.

    Leave a comment:


  • wallz
    replied
    That's good to hear

    Leave a comment:

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