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Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

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  • #76
    Oh jeez people. Whether DeMar has better stats or worse stats than Ross doesn't matter. It only takes common sense to know that Ross is nowhere near capable of starting, and that Ross will always be on the bench as long as Casey and/or DeMar is here. Why bicker about what stats they produce? It all seems so confusing to me.
    Twitter - @thekid_it

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    • #77
      Primer wrote: View Post
      Nice counters, this is the kind of discussion I'm looking for. I'll address your points one by one.

      1.) I'd put a lot more faith in DD getting his 3pt shots above 30% than Fields being able to do so. DD has improved his 3pt shooting year over year (past 3 years .096, .261, .283). Fields has done the opposite (past 3 years .393, .256, .143). I hear you on the nerve damage thing and I'd be ecstatic if he could get his 3pt% back to respectable, but the fact is he has regressed significantly year over year while DD has improved, and is currently a much better 3pt shooter. Way too many "if's" come along with fields. "If" Fields is still as bad a 3pt shooter as he was this year, then Raptors fans will be calling for the head of the GM who traded away DD to start Fields. I'm way way more comfortable with DD in there. You can't have a SG who other teams don't need to guard, it kills the offense.

      2.) I'm fine with the asterisks, as my main point isn't that DD is a good defender, it's that Fields and Ross aren't better defenders than DD. They'd need to be significantly better defenders than DD to offset how much significantly worse on offense they are.

      3.) You don't have the correct stats in there for WS/48 (win shares per 48). From basketball reference.
      WS/48:
      DD .075
      LF .052
      TR .034

      DD, although producing a pretty bad WS/48, is still significantly better than both Fields and Ross. Fields has never had a WS/48 of better than 0.1 (his first year with Knicks), and its has gone down every year, whereas DD made a pretty big improvement from 2 years ago to last year.

      Also, you have the incorrect win shares. Again from basketball reference.

      WS:
      DD 4.7
      LF 1.1
      TR 0.9

      Once again, DD comes in with a huge advantage in WS over Fields/Ross. Not sure where you got your stats, or if you meant something other than win shares, but this is the data from basketball reference (best stat site in my opinion).

      4.) You think DD is redundant in the current offense, but you don't say how Fields or Ross are a better fit, you just poo poo on DD. You need to explain how the replacement of Fields/Ross is better. In my opinion, Fields can't shoot his way out of a paper bag and Ross needs another year or two of development. Right now DD is a much better fit because his man can't slack off him or he will be punished. You can leave Fields wide open anywhere except under the basket and pretty much be fine. On a hot night, DD can demand double teams. Fields has probably only ever commanded a double team in one of his dreams, he'll never be that player.

      5.) I think Raps fans have created this illusion that Fields moves fantastically without the ball because we couldn't think of any other positive things to describe his play. He probably moves a bit better than DD, but it hardly produces anything, especially since he can't hit any shots unless he's right under the basket. Fields is most effective cutting under the basket looking for layups. DD can do so much more than Fields he doesn't need to just run cuts under the basket all the time like Fields does. We also feel comfortable giving DD the ball near the 3pt line and let him drive or pull up for a jumper. Fields can't do either of those things effectively.

      6.) I also expect a big step up from Ross. I expect him to step into the backup SG role that Fields/AA were manning last year. He's clearly not ready to start, but he should be getting around 25 minutes a game if he progresses as expected. I'm not seeing his defense being much better than DD's. He runs around like a freaking loose cannon out there getting stupid fouls. He certainly has the potential to be a better defender than DD, but lets wait until we see it before we trade DD for a PF than we don't really need.

      I think it's still a slam dunk, but I'm open to some more counters.

      Follow up question, explain to me how Millsap is such an upgrade over Amir that it's worth trading DD for? I'm assuming that's who you're targeting as the PF to trade DD for. In my opinion, we'd get a bit more offense from Millsap at the expense of defense and rebounding. It would just force Amir to play a bunch more center in order to get minutes, where he is undersized and tends to get into foul trouble.


      1) Take away DD's #AprilFoolsGold performance and how is his 3pt shooting? You clearly glossed over the nerve injury with Fields. He didn't lose the skills he lost the physical ability. When the physical ability returns I expect the skill to as well. From a confidence perspective this has to be really important - there is a legit reason why he was unable to hit shots.

      2) Ross and Fields are better defenders. There is more than one skill needed in basketball. Putting the ball in the hoops is a great skill but the Raptors have others who can do it.

      3) Stats are from theNBAGeek.com

      4) Ross and Fields are better fits because they can contribute and be threats without the basketball, DeRozan cannot or has not shown the ability. The Raptors already have 2 ball dominant players in Gay and Lowry. They also play much better defense. All your argument is based on offense. There are two sides to the ball.

      5) I think you should watch games and look at game logs when given consistent minutes. Go to stats.NBA.com and look at the break down of shooting percentages of Fields and DD. DD clearly has many more attempts but it is interesting nonetheless and look at prior seasons.

      6) If DD took the ball strong like Ross (i.e. had his athletic ability as well) and shot like Ross, DD would be an All-Star. Not sure how that fits in.


      Check Millsap compared to DD. Amir produces off bench or starting. Amir can play both PF and C with either Millsap or JV. Look at Millsap's PER.

      http://www.thenbageek.com/players/co...%93&player_ids[]=318&player_ids[]=334

      Amir's stat splits at C disagree with your statements.
      http://espn.go.com/nba/player/splits...9/amir-johnson

      Comment


      • #78
        isaacthompson wrote: View Post
        Oh jeez people. Whether DeMar has better stats or worse stats than Ross doesn't matter. It only takes common sense to know that Ross is nowhere near capable of starting, and that Ross will always be on the bench as long as Casey and/or DeMar is here. Why bicker about what stats they produce? It all seems so confusing to me.
        Who is pickering?

        Personally I'd rather see a healthy Fields start with Ross 3 and D off bench assuming upgrade at starting PF with Amir off bench.

        Comment


        • #79
          Matt52 wrote: View Post
          1) Take away DD's #AprilFoolsGold performance and how is his 3pt shooting? You clearly glossed over the nerve injury with Fields. He didn't lose the skills he lost the physical ability. When the physical ability returns I expect the skill to as well. From a confidence perspective this has to be really important - there is a legit reason why he was unable to hit shots.

          2) Ross and Fields are better defenders. There is more than one skill needed in basketball. Putting the ball in the hoops is a great skill but the Raptors have others who can do it.

          3) Stats are from theNBAGeek.com

          4) Ross and Fields are better fits because they can contribute and be threats without the basketball, DeRozan cannot or has not shown the ability. The Raptors already have 2 ball dominant players in Gay and Lowry. They also play much better defense. All your argument is based on offense. There are two sides to the ball.

          5) I think you should watch games and look at game logs when given consistent minutes. Go to stats.NBA.com and look at the break down of shooting percentages of Fields and DD. DD clearly has many more attempts but it is interesting nonetheless and look at prior seasons.

          6) If DD took the ball strong like Ross (i.e. had his athletic ability as well) and shot like Ross, DD would be an All-Star. Not sure how that fits in.


          Check Millsap compared to DD. Amir produces off bench or starting. Amir can play both PF and C with either Millsap or JV. Look at Millsap's PER.

          http://www.thenbageek.com/players/co...%93&player_ids[]=318&player_ids[]=334

          Amir's stat splits at C disagree with your statements.
          http://espn.go.com/nba/player/splits...9/amir-johnson
          Seems like our main sticking point is over Fields, and what he will contribute. You think he's going to get back to his rookie year form, or close to it. I think he'll only be marginally better than last year. If Fields offense doesn't improve significantly, his defense isn't enough to keep him in the starting lineup. In my experience, Fields plays his best defense against SF, not SG, so I like him better of the bench as the backup SF to Gay. Ross comes off the bench as the backup SG and he is given the scoring green light on the second team. Bring in someone like Carl Landry as the backup PF and the bench starts to look decent. I think that would be a much better team than one which sent out DD for Millsap.
          Hopefully Fields blows my socks off and I get egg on my face, but then DD blows up too, so you get egg on your face, but we won't care because the Raps will be a solid playoff team with a bright future.

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          • #80
            I have serious doubts about Fields. For one thing, I hate his contract. And second, when I hear someone saying "If he starts playing like he did back in..." I usually tune them out immediately.

            Let me explain what I meant by adequately --

            I never said we wouldn't miss a beat if we replaced DeRozan with these two guys. And I don't mean addition by subtraction either. By adequately, I mean good enough. With DeRozan's ceiling, I would predict that a combination of Fields/Ross going forward should equal what we need from that position in 2 years. I don't see the point in spending $27M on two guys who do the exact same things. It's the same reason why Indiana should consider moving forward without Danny Granger with the emergence of Paul George. It doesn't mean that the Pacers have no use for Granger, they absolutely could use his help and the his added depth. But it's more that you have an opportunity to re-allocate the money to areas that will strengthen your team overall. I don't follow the Pacers closely enough to tell you what those areas are, but we have plenty of holes to fill.

            The team consisting of: JV, Amir, Gay, DeRozan and Lowry will win you about 38-40 games.

            A team consisting of JV, Starting PF on a good team, Gay, Fields/Ross and Lowry has the potential of winning a lot more.
            your pal,
            ebrian

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            • #81
              I'm really enjoying the discussion on both sides, but I wanted to interject that I think the "DeRozan doesn't take it strong to the hole" narrative has gotten way out of control. He was top 8 in the entire league for free throws last season.

              Yes, I know that watching him in real time there are a lot of moments where it seems like he can't finish around the rim through contact but it's not like he has trouble getting into the paint, at least not to the point where we should be wishing that he had more T-Ross in him in that regards.
              Last edited by Fully; Fri May 17, 2013, 01:51 PM.

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              • #82
                ebrian wrote: View Post
                I have serious doubts about Fields. For one thing, I hate his contract. And second, when I hear someone saying "If he starts playing like he did back in..." I usually tune them out immediately.

                Let me explain what I meant by adequately --

                I never said we wouldn't miss a beat if we replaced DeRozan with these two guys. And I don't mean addition by subtraction either. By adequately, I mean good enough. With DeRozan's ceiling, I would predict that a combination of Fields/Ross going forward should equal what we need from that position in 2 years. I don't see the point in spending $27M on two guys who do the exact same things. It's the same reason why Indiana should consider moving forward without Danny Granger with the emergence of Paul George. It doesn't mean that the Pacers have no use for Granger, they absolutely could use his help and the his added depth. But it's more that you have an opportunity to re-allocate the money to areas that will strengthen your team overall. I don't follow the Pacers closely enough to tell you what those areas are, but we have plenty of holes to fill.

                The team consisting of: JV, Amir, Gay, DeRozan and Lowry will win you about 38-40 games.

                A team consisting of JV, Starting PF on a good team, Gay, Fields/Ross and Lowry has the potential of winning a lot more.
                If our new GM can come in and do something creative that sends out DD and brings in a comparable SG who complements Gay better, I'm all for it. I'd just rather have a poorly paired DD and Gay than the even more poorly paired Fields/Ross and Gay. I'm interested in winning games, so I want a lineup that gives us the best shot. I like the lineup with DD in it more than I do the one without him but a replacement for Amir at PF.

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                • #83
                  I consider stats.nba.com a pretty good site. OffRtg and DefRtg differential:

                  Dd -2.4
                  Lf -0.8

                  Landry gets his shot back and I don't think there is any comparison. It is a big if but even a damaged fields from a Rtg perspective is a better fit... That includes an awful stArt to season.

                  To be clear not questioning talent, I am talking fit.

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                  • #84
                    Matt52 wrote: View Post
                    I consider stats.nba.com a pretty good site. OffRtg and DefRtg differential:

                    Dd -2.4
                    Lf -0.8

                    Landry gets his shot back and I don't think there is any comparison. It is a big if but even a damaged fields from a Rtg perspective is a better fit... That includes an awful stArt to season.

                    To be clear not questioning talent, I am talking fit.
                    I just really don't think Fields has NBA starter talent. His stats are terrible on basketball reference and watching him all season backs that up in my mind. If you really think he would be a better starter than DD then I don't know what to say except I vehemently disagree.

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                    • #85
                      Primer wrote: View Post
                      I just really don't think Fields has NBA starter talent. His stats are terrible on basketball reference and watching him all season backs that up in my mind. If you really think he would be a better starter than DD then I don't know what to say except I vehemently disagree.
                      He was the starter for two seasons on a playoff team and he was injured this past season.

                      In my opinion he is a better starter for THE RAPTORS is all I am saying. Fit with gay.

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                      • #86
                        Primer wrote: View Post
                        I just really don't think Fields has NBA starter talent. His stats are terrible on basketball reference and watching him all season backs that up in my mind. If you really think he would be a better starter than DD then I don't know what to say except I vehemently disagree.
                        You can't judge fields off this season because he was injured the entire time.

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                        • #87
                          If Fields returns to his old New-York self than maybe he's better fit for a starter. But if you're talking this season too than I would have to disagree. He could be a good "fit", but would it make them a better team and give them more wins than if Derozan were starting? Because if it wouldn't than how can you classify him as a better fit?
                          You come at the King, you best not miss.

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                          • #88
                            Don't judge Fields guys yet.. He's having hard time recovering from elbow surgery ( if we talk about shooting ). He needs to spend long long hours in the gym right now, and show that he's worth those money which BC gave him. We'll see if there is any progress about Landry next season

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                            • #89
                              Mr.Z wrote: View Post
                              If Fields returns to his old New-York self than maybe he's better fit for a starter. But if you're talking this season too than I would have to disagree. He could be a good "fit", but would it make them a better team and give them more wins than if Derozan were starting? Because if it wouldn't than how can you classify him as a better fit?
                              Statistics say yes.

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                              • #90
                                rocwell wrote: View Post
                                Don't judge Fields guys yet.. He's having hard time recovering from elbow surgery ( if we talk about shooting ). He needs to spend long long hours in the gym right now, and show that he's worth those money which BC gave him. We'll see if there is any progress about Landry next season
                                People who have their ulnar nerve decompressed at the elbow are usually told that motor recovery can be variable. Basically, it wouldn't be shocking to his surgeon if he doesn't get all the way back to where he was, so we shouldn't be shocked either. I hope he does, I'm a huge fan of his game (pre Raptors).

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