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Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

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  • p00ka
    replied
    Axel wrote: View Post
    It's basic statistical probability. He has missed games in each of the past 3 seasons (the seasons where he was considered the starter). Do the math, and based on his career to date, Lowry should play in 67 of 82 games this year. 15 games missed is fairly high, but that is the statistical likelihood of the high risk player that he is.

    You support the use of stats and yet here I used simple stats that cannot be skewed in any way (GP and games on the schedule are firm numbers) and you want to dispute them? lol
    I don't, but carry on.

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  • magoon
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    The fundamental principle here is intent. If the intent is to lose for the lotto then that's tanking. If not then it's something else, pick a label but don't call it tanking.
    Speaking for the "call it a tank or a rebuild, whatever" brigade: the intent is to build a true contending team, predicated on the belief that right now we don't have one and/or we are not even necessarily likely to make playoffs this year. (Many people disagree with that belief, of course.)

    That means acquiring assets to get us to true contention, and since free agency is at best a method for us to get complementary pieces (as opposed to superstars), that leaves us with trading and the draft to get them. Since we have only one or two players who are absolutely vital to keep in the long term (Jonas and maybe Amir), everybody else is potentially worth trading in order to get better value in the form of additional first-round draft picks and young players with a lot of upside. That doesn't mean simply trading for expiring junk contracts (although that probably ends up being part of any deal simply because so many of our players are overpaid).

    Of course, even if we get those prospects, the simple truth is that this rebuild plan does involve us sucking this year as we begin the rebuild process. But any true rebuild involves a team sucking at some point (as opposed to Toronto, who has never truly rebuilt but simply tinkered around the edges for years now, which just meant plenty of sucking). If we're going to suck at some point, then get it over with and do it when sucking is most rewarded, which is right now.

    Leave a comment:


  • Axel
    replied
    p00ka wrote: View Post
    Can I borrow your crystal ball for next week's lottery?
    It's basic statistical probability. He has missed games in each of the past 3 seasons (the seasons where he was considered the starter). Do the math, and based on his career to date, Lowry should play in 67 of 82 games this year. 15 games missed is fairly high, but that is the statistical likelihood of the high risk player that he is.

    You support the use of stats and yet here I used simple stats that cannot be skewed in any way (GP and games on the schedule are firm numbers) and you want to dispute them? lol

    Leave a comment:


  • Apollo
    replied
    CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    I had this same discussion with magoon in posts 684-686... apparently the pro-tankers aren't really in favor of traditional 'tanking' and those of us in favor of 'retooling' (somewhere between 'tanking' and 'tinkering'), should actually be voting for 'tanking' on this poll... semantics and subjective definitions have caused endless debate in this thread!
    Well, this is too bad but good to point out.

    The fundamental principle here is intent. If the intent is to lose for the lotto then that's tanking. If not then it's something else, pick a label but don't call it tanking.

    I would reset that poll and start over if I could remember how I did it once in the past. No time right now to tinker with it.

    Leave a comment:


  • p00ka
    replied
    Axel wrote: View Post
    Based on the last 3 years, Lowry will get hurt and will only play 67 games this year. You feel good about rolling out Buycks & Stone for 15 games this year?
    Can I borrow your crystal ball for next week's lottery?

    Leave a comment:


  • CalgaryRapsFan
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    Your definition of tanking is different from a lot of people in here and all of the media in that case. Tanking is operating under the intention of losing to enhance the odds in the lotto.

    The moves Ujiri makes may lead to the team taking a step back but they may improve too. The point is he's making decisions with long term improvement in mind and not short term losing. He's not making plays for the lotto. He said that already.



    Tanking means intentionally losing so if you're not for that then you must be for tinkering. Tinkering means making changes but does not imply making changes with short term losing being a primary short term objective.
    I had this same discussion with magoon in posts 684-686... apparently the pro-tankers aren't really in favor of traditional 'tanking' and those of us in favor of 'retooling' (somewhere between 'tanking' and 'tweaking'), should actually be voting for "tanker" on this poll... semantics and subjective definitions have caused endless debate in this thread!

    For the record, I enjoyed the discussion with magoon and I think it shed a lot of light on the middle ground where I think a lot of posters on both sides of the debate really fall. I think MU would also favor this middle ground area, where they might win with the current core, might lose with the current core, or might rebuild the core as long as good offers (players? picks? cap relief? some/all of the above?) are received for players in the current core.
    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Mon Jul 15, 2013, 01:11 PM.

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  • Axel
    replied
    Based on the last 3 years, Lowry will get hurt and will only play 67 games this year. You feel good about rolling out Buycks & Stone for 15 games this year?

    Leave a comment:


  • p00ka
    replied
    Craiger wrote: View Post
    From Matt52's Van Gundy quote:



    Prior to he Harden deal, Morey had a team of rookies and second year players + Asik/Lin/Martin/Delfino.

    That team had no shot at the playoffs. What Morey did with the Harden deal was impressive, moreso if he did it with the foresight that Harden would be available prior to the season's start. But lets not pretend Morey wasn't set up for a tank year had Harden not been available or gone his way.



    Yes (get as bad as you can) is not the only way to do it - if your team is a top end NBA market. Then your team has a legitimate shot at building a contender any way you choose. Sign a big free agent, build up tradeable assets and wait for either a disgruntled star or nervous small market team whose superstar is a year away from UFA. Tank. Keep overpriced expiring deals on the books waiting for that team who is ready to rebuild.

    But what about the other half of the NBA?

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Here is the list of the top 20 players by WS/48.

    LeBron James-MIA
    Kevin Durant-OKC
    Chris Paul-LAC
    Tyson Chandler - NYK
    Tony Parker-SAS
    James Harden-HOU
    Marc Gasol-MEM
    Tiago Splitter-SAS
    Blake Griffin-LAC
    Russell Westbrook-OKC
    Dwyane Wade-MIA
    Tim Duncan-SAS
    Brook Lopez-BRK
    Carmelo Anthony-NYK
    Deron Williams-BRK
    Serge Ibaka-OKC
    Stephen Curry-GSW
    David West-IND
    George Hill-IND
    Chris Bosh-MIA

    11 are with the team that drafted them (Marc Gasol may be an exception, but had his rights traded for as he was not yet in the NBA)

    Of the 9 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, Only 2 (David West and George Hill) are not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Here is a list of the top 20 players by PER (played atleast 30 minutes)

    LeBron James, MIA
    Kevin Durant, OKC
    Chris Paul, LAC
    Carmelo Anthony, NY
    Brook Lopez, BKN
    Tim Duncan, SA
    Dwyane Wade, MIA
    Russell Westbrook, OKC
    Tony Parker, SA
    Kobe Bryant, LAL
    James Harden, HOU
    Blake Griffin, LAC
    Anthony Davis, NO
    Anderson Varejao, CLE
    Kyrie Irving, CLE
    Stephen Curry, GS
    Al Jefferson, UTAH (Charlotte now)
    John Wall, WSH
    LaMarcus Aldridge, POR
    Deron Williams, BKN

    14 are with the team that drafted them.

    Of the 6 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, Only 1 player (Al Jefferson) is not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Here is the list of top 20 players by WP

    Durant, Kevin
    James, LeBron
    Paul, Chris
    Harden, James
    Chandler, Tyson
    Ibaka, Serge
    Curry, Stephen
    Noah, Joakim
    Conley, Mike
    Wade, Dwyane
    Kirilenko, Andrei
    Butler, Jimmy
    Faried, Kenneth
    Sefolosha, Thabo
    Marion, Shawn
    Calderon, Jose
    Johnson, Amir
    Batum, Nicolas
    Iguodala, Andre
    Gasol, Marc

    10 are with the team that drafted them (*see Marc Gasol above)

    Of the 10 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, only 3 (Amir Johnson, Andre Igoudala, Thabo Sefolosha) are not NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    So here we have a grand total of 6 "statistical stars" who have not been drafted by their team and didn't end up in one of the NBA elite markets.

    The players and their respective statistical ranking

    Amir Johnson 17th
    Thabo Sefolosha 14th
    Iggy 19th
    Al Jefferson 17th
    George Hill 19th
    David West 18th

    NBA Awards between those 6 - David West NBA all-star x 2, Thabo Sefolosha NBA all defensive 2nd team, Iggy NBA All-star x 1, NBA all defensive 2nd team x 1

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Lets do the same with 2012/13 NBA allstars (I won't list them all this time though)

    Of the 25 NBA allstars (including Rondo and his replacement Lopez) 14 were drafted by their team.

    Of the 11 remaining who weren't drafted by their team, only 3 (Zach Randolph, David Lee, Jrue Holiday) are not in NY/LA/Miami/Houston/Dallas.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    So to fully understand the dichotomy here:

    The 'elite' markets account for 25% of the league (8 of 30 teams)
    The 'elite' markets account for 75% of the league's 'stars' (statistical and all-star 27 of 36) that were not drafted by their team.

    *should be noted many of those names overlap in different categories (Lebron, Harden, Melo etc) so of the league's 'stars' (statistical and allstar) that were not drafted by their team, averaged per category (ie. 83% of PER stars, 77% of WS/48 stars etc), the elite markets account for 76%


    Of those players not drafted or in an elite market, all except for Thabo at 14th under WP, were in the bottom quarter of their respective stats, none were (or have ever been) allstar starters, and you'd be hard pressed to find someone who would call any of them a superstar.


    We need to stop pretending that all teams can realistically build/rebuild in the same fashion.
    A fine example of how raw stats can be used (manipulated) to support just about any argument. You're suggesting the Raptors should pay attention to this reasoning in deciding that tanking is the way to go? This type of "plan" is supported by the Top 20 in these various stat categories? Really? S&^t, I hate raw stats being used for s&^t like this, but you're saying use these stats to support your tank argument in making serious, long term plans for the organization. In turn:

    Use of WS/48

    which puts Splitter (over Duncan even), Lopez, Ibaka, West, George Hill..............
    Over Kobe (whose tied with Verajeo who played 25 games), as well as all of these that follow.
    Even puts Calderon and Ed Davis (tied with Anthony Davis) over Millsap, Horford, Paul George, Noah, Dirk, Z-Bo, Lawson, Pierce, Garnett, Hibbert, etc.

    Use of PER

    Which puts Lopez, Anthony Davis, Verajao (with 25 games), Al Jefferson above: West, Bosh, Millsap, Horford, Dirk, Marc Gasol (below Hickson for fk sake), Dwight, Garnett, Pierce, Noah, Rondo, Z-Bo, Lawson, Josh Smith, Hibbert, Paul George, Lillard, Rubio, etc.

    Use of WP

    Which puts Ibaka, Sefolosha, Conley, AK47, Faried, Marion, Calderon, Amir
    over Duncan, Kobe, Z-Bo, Westbrook, Horford, Tony Parker, Bosh, Rubio, etc.

    AND puts JJ Hickson at same number as Duncan,
    Tristan Thompson over Horford, Parker, Bosh, Rubio, Hibbert, Aldridge, etc.
    Kyle Lowry over Pierce, West, Rondo, Rubio, Hibbert, Aldridge, etc.
    Ed Davis over Rondo, Rubio, Hibbert, Aldridge, etc.

    THESE ARE STATS THAT YOU FEEL SUPPORT A TANK ARGUMENT? WHATEVER.

    Leave a comment:


  • Apollo
    replied
    Not really.

    He replaced an injury prone, low efficiency big man with few big man skills for a solid big man who plays tough defense and rebounds the ball; a guy who fits his coach's system.

    He has Rudy Gay from day one.

    He has a stronger, more experienced JV and Ross both ready to take a step forward I hope.

    DeRozan should be improved.

    He added a guy who can hit threes off the bench, another need.

    This team looks better than last year's team to me. Last year's team missed the playoffs by four games did they not?

    Really having a guy who fits the team in the paint to help JV and Amir is huge. Having Gay from the onset is huge. This team will have a lot more chemistry this year.

    Leave a comment:


  • Axel
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    You definition of tanking is different from a lot of people in here and all of the media in that case. Tanking is operating under the intention of losing to enhance the odd in the lotto.

    The moves Ujiri makes may lead to the team taking a step back but they may improve too. The point is he's making decisions with long term improvement in mind and not short term losing. He's not making plays for the lotto. He said that already.
    If he goes into this season with this roster, then he is likely in the lotto anyway. The team would have to have zero injuries at PG or in the front court to make the play-offs. So we are in the lottery anyways, and I'd be fine with the 12th or 13th pick in 2014, but I'd prefer to have it without a plethora of over-paid wingers who can't shoot the ball from 3 (or in Landry's case, at all) and ideally get a couple of 2015 first rounders in moving those over-paid wingers.

    Leave a comment:


  • Apollo
    replied
    Axel wrote: View Post
    It's rebuild now while the likely benefit from rebuilding (a higher draft pick) will have the maximum value. That isn't the same thing as Tank for 2014 to me.

    All drafts aren't created equal. Raps fans know this more than most teams....
    2002 - Yao Ming
    2003 - LeBron James
    2004 - Dwight Howard
    2005 - Andrew Bogut
    2006 - Andrea Bargnani
    2007 - Greg Oden
    2008 - Derrick Rose
    2009 - Blake Griffin
    2010 - John Wall
    2011 - Kyrie Irving

    ...so why not time the necessary rebuild, over-haul, roster-cohesiveness-maximization or whatever you want to call it with one of the best drafts of all-time?
    Your definition of tanking is different from a lot of people in here and all of the media in that case. Tanking is operating under the intention of losing to enhance the odds in the lotto.

    The moves Ujiri makes may lead to the team taking a step back but they may improve too. The point is he's making decisions with long term improvement in mind and not short term losing. He's not making plays for the lotto. He said that already.

    Fully wrote: View Post
    Dude, there's only two options for the poll.

    If you aren't for "tinkering" then by default, you have to vote "tanking"... That doesn't necessarily mean that you're all for giving away the Raptors talent at a huge discount just to try and win 15 games.
    Tanking means intentionally losing so if you're not for that then you must be for tinkering. Tinkering means making changes but does not imply making changes with short term losing being a primary short term objective.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fully
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    Well there was a time when it didn't say that. Read the poll. Who are the nine people who voted yes? Maybe they can direct you to their posts?
    Dude, there's only two options for the poll.

    If you aren't for "tinkering" then by default, you have to vote "tanking"... That doesn't necessarily mean that you're all for giving away the Raptors talent at a huge discount just to try and win 15 games. I feel like I've said this a thousand times now but I think most people who are in the rebuilding group are doing so under the assumption that tearing this roster down would return a nice haul of picks, prospects and flexibility. Seriously... I haven't read anyone, on either side of the argument, that is looking for this team to strictly do a "salary dump" of Gay, Derozan, etc.
    Last edited by Fully; Mon Jul 15, 2013, 12:48 PM.

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  • Axel
    replied
    It's rebuild now while the likely benefit from rebuilding (a higher draft pick) will have the maximum value. That isn't the same thing as Tank for 2014 to me.

    All drafts aren't created equal. Raps fans know this more than most teams....
    2002 - Yao Ming
    2003 - LeBron James
    2004 - Dwight Howard
    2005 - Andrew Bogut
    2006 - Andrea Bargnani
    2007 - Greg Oden
    2008 - Derrick Rose
    2009 - Blake Griffin
    2010 - John Wall
    2011 - Kyrie Irving

    ...so why not time the necessary rebuild, over-haul, roster-cohesiveness-maximization or whatever you want to call it with one of the best drafts of all-time?

    Leave a comment:


  • Apollo
    replied
    Well there was a time when it didn't say that. Read the poll. Who are the nine people who voted yes? Maybe they can direct you to their posts?

    Leave a comment:


  • Axel
    replied
    Actually the title says rebuild or re-tool....

    Leave a comment:

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