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If the team could stick a high-percentage 3pt shooter into the starting SG spot....

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  • If the team could stick a high-percentage 3pt shooter into the starting SG spot....

    If you believe DD is going to get a 3pt shot or DD and Gay are going to set the league on fire, then what comes next is likely to infuriate you - sorry about that.

    Unfortunately the first paragraph of what follows essentially summarizes why the pairing of DD/Gay is likely to fail. Add to that they are the 1st and 2nd highest paid wings on a team that currently has 71% of its cap devoted to inefficient (Gay, DD) or flawed (post injury Fields) or unproven (Ross) or damaged (Kleiza) players then something has to give. For those still in denial or experiencing anger, remember that a big talking piece for Colangelo was the pairing of DD/Gay - and he is now on the business side of the franchise with his successor just cleaning house of his hirings/holdovers of the last 7 years.

    This bit of a Tim Chisholm article (he has started his own site/blog, be sure to check it out threeinthekey.ca) has been stuck in my head for days - especially the bold sections.

    Really, though, when you are talking about Toronto’s wings what you are really talking about is Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan. They eat up 71% of the teams minutes on the wings, eat up 38.2% of the team’s shot attempts per game and together eat up half of the team’s salary cap. Both are high-volume (6th and 10th in FGA per game for swingmen), low-efficiency (120th and 93rd in TS% for swingmen) scorers and neither one is particularly adept at creating good shots for themselves or others. It is very hard to imagine this team succeeding in the long run with these two teamed up on the wings which makes it hard to envision Ujiri maintaining this pairing for any notable length of time.

    If the two are to be split up, it makes the most sense to these eyes to keep Gay and move DeRozan along. Gay is a superior defender to DeRozan, he has shown in the past an ability to hit threes and his contract is half as long as DeRozan’s is, ending in the summer of 2015. Plus, because DeRozan is younger and makes less money per year, he would presumably be the easier of the two to move.

    One of the big reasons to push for a split, though, isn’t about money or efficiency, it’s about shot allocation. Going into next season the team has to find far more shots for Jonas Valanciunas (7.3 FGA per game after the Gay trade) and probably should find more shots for Kyle Lowry (8.4 FGA per game post trade). If you take shot attempts away from DeRozan he won’t give you much in the other areas of the game. Better to explore the market for his services, especially in a summer when so many teams have money to spend on a weak free agent class, than to retain him and simply reduce his role in the structure of the offense. An offense centered around Valanciunas-Gay-Lowry could be potent if balanced right, especially if the team could stick a high-percentage three-point shooter into the starting shooting guard spot. Team them with the ever-improving Amir Johnson and a bench that has actual NBA talent on it and Ujiri may just have the beginnings of an interesting ball club.

    http://threeinthekey.ca/where-to-fir...st-priorities/

    I have read a number of times on these forums from those in favour of sticking with DD and/or DD-Gay pairing the question: well, if DD doesn't start, who does?

    To that I provide this list of possibilities.

    In house:
    Fields
    Ross

    Both have flaws and question marks. Anyone saying those guys can't or shouldn't start have a sound foundation because they both have their own advantages and disadvantages with both relying on the promise of one thing or another (Fields return to health, Ross developing).


    Out source:
    Kyle Korver (free agent)
    Jared Dudley (trade block)
    Mike Dunleavy (free agent)
    JJ Redick (free agent)
    Willie Green (non-guaranteed)
    Kevin Martin (free agent)


    Before the expected negative responses, please look at this and do the following, sort by:

    1) WP48
    2) PoP48
    3) Wins
    4) 3pt%
    5) eFG%
    6) TS%
    7) PPS (while you can't sort it you can get the idea pretty quick)

    If you did 1 through 7 above, a common theme likely emerged. With the exception of WP48 (Fields was 3rd), PoP48 (Fields was 3rd), Wins (Green was 8th in just over 1/3 the minutes of DD *3.4 vs 2.0*), and PPS (DD 6th with 1.21 and Green 7th with 1.17) the Raptors players were in the bottom 3 for nearly every category.


    The reality is all of these players are better suited to start at SG than DD (only question for me is Dunleavy). With only the MLE to offer, Redick and Martin are likely not attainable without sign and trades (and getting player and 2 teams to agree is unlikely). The two players I would target are Dudley and Korver.

    If Ross develops, great, you can move one of these guys to the bench. If Landry gets his shot back, great, you can move one of these guys to the bench. Or you could keep starting one of these guys. Either way you just solidified a weak bench.


    What is the point of this? No, it is not to infuriate DD's fans. The point is to highlight Tim Chisholm's bold in the final paragraph while also highlighting there are a few players available (and possibly easily attainable) who fit much better than DeRozan, likely coming at much less cost.

    The reality is this roster was built around and for Bargnani. It is why DD was selected in 2009 - his shooting, or lack thereof, was not a concern because Bargnani balanced him on the court. Unless you have a stretch 4 who can hit 3s consistently, you can't continue on with DD starting at SG. I think the odds of getting a stretch 4 who can hit 3s is much less likely than getting one of the players I listed above.


    **Other than Dudley, I did not even look in to other possible trades nor did I look at the draft. I tried to stick to free agency as much as possible to keep the possible replacements as real as possible.**
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Mon Jun 3, 2013, 07:49 PM.

  • #2
    Sign Redick if possible, trade DeRozan + Bargnani for a big. Or, move Fields into starting lineup, bring DeRozan in off the bench as the sixth man with the green light to strengthen the bench without any moves.

    Comment


    • #3
      I like Demar but I agree he should be used as trade fodder with Bargs because his skilled are now redundant somewhat , we need a 2 who can defend and hit the corner .

      If Fields can find his shot he would be perfect for the job, if not a cheap young guy like Iman Shumpert comes to mind or a cheap vet like Kelenna Azubuike

      Comment


      • #4
        OzRapFan wrote: View Post
        I like Demar but I agree he should be used as trade fodder with Bargs because his skilled are now redundant somewhat , we need a 2 who can defend and hit the corner .

        If Fields can find his shot he would be perfect for the job, if not a cheap young guy like Iman Shumpert comes to mind or a cheap vet like Kelenna Azubuike
        New York isn't going to consider letting go of Shumpert.

        Comment


        • #5
          You could probably sign and trade JJ for Demar straight, so why would you add Demar to a Bargnani trade? Haven't we already had that argument in every other thread? Trade Demar? You're better off trading Demar separate from Bargs. I want to see what's gotten for Bargs, not a fan, but really there's only 2 of those guys I'm interested in: JJ, and Martin. You guys hate Demar's defense? Only Dudley and Green are as good/better than Demar on that end. JJ doesn't screw up, the rest of them...good luck with that.

          Comment


          • #6
            Matt52 wrote: View Post
            If you believe DD is going to get a 3pt shot or DD and Gay are going to set the league on fire, then what comes next is likely to infuriate you - sorry about that.

            Unfortunately the first paragraph of what follows essentially summarizes why the pairing of DD/Gay is likely to fail. Add to that they are the 1st and 2nd highest paid wings on a team that currently has 71% of its cap devoted to inefficient (Gay, DD) or flawed (post injury Fields) or unproven (Ross) or damaged (Kleiza) players then something has to give. For those still in denial or experiencing anger, remember that a big talking piece for Colangelo was the pairing of DD/Gay - and he is now on the business side of the franchise with his successor just cleaning house of his hirings/holdovers of the last 7 years.

            This bit of a Tim Chisholm article (he has started his own site/blog, be sure to check it out threeinthekey.ca) has been stuck in my head for days - especially the bold sections.




            I have read a number of times on these forums from those in favour of sticking with DD and/or DD-Gay pairing the question: well, if DD doesn't start, who does?

            To that I provide this list of possibilities.

            In house:
            Fields
            Ross

            Both have flaws and question marks. Anyone saying those guys can't or shouldn't start have a sound foundation because they both have their own advantages and disadvantages with both relying on the promise of one thing or another (Fields return to health, Ross developing).


            Out source:
            Kyle Korver (free agent)
            Jared Dudley (trade block)
            Mike Dunleavy (free agent)
            JJ Redick (free agent)
            Willie Green (non-guaranteed)
            Kevin Martin (free agent)


            Before the expected negative responses, please look at this and do the following, sort by:

            1) WP48
            2) PoP48
            3) Wins
            4) 3pt%
            5) eFG%
            6) TS%
            7) PPS (while you can't sort it you can get the idea pretty quick)

            If you did 1 through 7 above, a common theme likely emerged. With the exception of WP48 (Fields was 3rd), PoP48 (Fields was 3rd), Wins (Green was 8th in just over 1/3 the minutes of DD *3.4 vs 2.0*), and PPS (DD 6th with 1.21 and Green 7th with 1.17) the Raptors players were in the bottom 3 for nearly every category.


            The reality is all of these players are better suited to start at SG than DD (only question for me is Dunleavy). With only the MLE to offer, Redick and Martin are likely not attainable without sign and trades (and getting player and 2 teams to agree is unlikely). The two players I would target are Dudley and Korver.

            If Ross develops, great, you can move one of these guys to the bench. If Landry gets his shot back, great, you can move one of these guys to the bench. Or you could keep starting one of these guys. Either way you just solidified a weak bench.


            What is the point of this? No, it is not to infuriate DD's fans. The point is to highlight Tim Chisholm's bold in the final paragraph while also highlighting there are a few players available (and possibly easily attainable) who fit much better than DeRozan, likely coming at much less cost.

            The reality is this roster was built around and for Bargnani. It is why DD was selected in 2009 - his shooting, or lack thereof, was not a concern because Bargnani balanced him on the court. Unless you have a stretch 4 who can hit 3s consistently, you can't continue on with DD starting at SG. I think the odds of getting a stretch 4 who can hit 3s is much less likely than getting one of the players I listed above.


            **Other than Dudley, I did not even look in to other possible trades nor did I look at the draft. I tried to stick to free agency as much as possible to keep the possible replacements as real as possible.**
            All these dudes are worst defenders than DD. I've said before I don't care about the offensive. All I care about is the defense. Post trade that starting line up top10 in defense. If they can play D than that takes way from their offensive problem. People making it seem like are offensive was terrible after the trade. If remember it was still pretty good after the trade. The D needs to step up. That staring line up was starting to show defensive chemistry. The offense will take care of it self. You guys are worrying about the wrong side of the ball.

            People on this forum always talk about how Rudy help DD get better looks but never vice versa. If you check post trade Rudy's the one who efficiency numbers went up. Came to Toronto shooting .411 FG. Ended with .435 FG. Haven't we seen this show before in Memphis with Rudy being the only wing scoring option in a starting lineup? How did that workout the last couple of years in Memphis.

            I'm going to stick to my story. Unless you get back a proven capable starting PF back. You do not trade DD. Procductive wing players don't fall out the sky guys
            @Chr1st1anL

            Comment


            • #7
              Derozan for Paul Milsap
              (Utah would pull it in a heart beat)

              Bargnani for Ben Gordon
              (rumored earlier in the year)

              Sign Jarrat Jack/Nate Robinson in Free Agency with MLE

              Lowry/Jack
              Gordon/Ross
              Gay/Fields
              Milsap/ Amir
              Val

              Gordon is a +40% 3pt shooter, with an expiring 13 Mil contract.
              By next season, hopefully we can know if Ross is capable of starting, and then shed 13 Mil for free agency in 2014!
              Paul Milsap can do everything INCLUDING hit the 3. He would compliment Gay and Val very well.
              The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

              Comment


              • #8
                Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                All these dudes are worst defenders than DD. I've said before I don't care about the offensive. All I care about is the defense. Post trade that starting line up top10 in defense. If they can play D than that takes way from their offensive problem. People making it seem like are offensive was terrible after the trade. If remember it was still pretty good after the trade. The D needs to step up. That staring line up was starting to show defensive chemistry. The offense will take care of it self. You guys are worrying about the wrong side of the ball.

                People on this forum always talk about how Rudy help DD get better looks but never vice versa. If you check post trade Rudy's the one who efficiency numbers went up. Came to Toronto shooting .411 FG. Ended with .435 FG. Haven't we seen this show before in Memphis with Rudy being the only wing scoring option in a starting lineup? How did that workout the last couple of years in Memphis.

                I'm going to stick to my story. Unless you get back a proven capable starting PF back. You do not trade DD. Procductive wing players don't fall out the sky guys
                Bold 1: It is with a grain of salt taken to compare Off/DefRtgs across different teams but for shits and giggles:

                Player/OffRtg/DefRtg/Net (all stats from stat.nba.com)

                DD/102.0/104.3/-2.4
                Korver/105.7/101.3/+4.4
                Dudley/99.2/103.4/-4.2
                Dunleavy/102.9/101.8/+1.0
                Redick/104.4/106.4/-2.0
                Green/107.4/103.0/+4.4
                Martin/112.7/101.0/+11.6

                With the exception of Redick, all these guys have a better DefRtg. I can't say with certainty about the other players, but we know DD is never asked to guard the other teams best perimeter threat.

                On/Off net might also give an indicator of value added (again, grain of salt needed but it helps give an indication):

                Player/On/Off/Net (all stats from 82games.com)

                DD/-1.8/-0.4/-1.4
                Korver/+4.2/-4.6/+8.8
                Dudley/-2.8/-10.8/+8.0
                Dunleavy/+2.3/-5.2/+7.5
                Redick/+0.2/-1.9/+2.2
                Green/+3.7/+7.6/-3.9
                Martin/+9.8/+8.4/+1.4

                Except Green and DD, all players were net positive on the court. Again take the grain of salt but it is interesting.

                Bold 2: It was pretty bad. From February 1st on they were 21st in offensive rating.

                Bold 3: Tony Allen was his starting wing mate in Memphis who shot 12.5% from 3 and had a PPS of 1.11. A deep threat would open things much more for Gay, in my opinion, not allowing teams to jam the paint/lanes.

                Bold 4: Every player I listed is more productive and/or more efficient than DeRozan and they could come anywhere from 40 to 80% less than DD.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I'd love to move either one of the wings for a 3 point shooter, and it makes sense that Demar should be the one to be traded since he's not as talented as Gay, but none of the players on the list are starters imo. I would rather go after someone like Gordon Hayward or even Alec Burks from Utah to replace DeMar. There has to be someone else on the team that can help carry the offense when Gay is struggling or defenses are focusing on him. I don't think JV is there yet and Lowry is so inconsistent.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Mediumcore wrote: View Post
                    I'd love to move either one of the wings for a 3 point shooter, and it makes sense that Demar should be the one to be traded since he's not as talented as Gay, but none of the players on the list are starters imo. I would rather go after someone like Gordon Hayward or even Alec Burks from Utah to replace DeMar. There has to be someone else on the team that can help carry the offense when Gay is struggling or defenses are focusing on him. I don't think JV is there yet and Lowry is so inconsistent.
                    The problem is those guys are under contract (like Dudley) but may not be available. If we were choosing who we want, I'd be going after Danny Green or Wesley Matthews or Sefolosha.

                    As for starting:

                    Hayward started 27 of 72 (29mpg)
                    Korver 60 of 74 (30mpg)
                    Dudley 50 of 79 (28mpg)
                    Dunleavy 3 of 75 (26mpg)
                    Redick 13 of 78 (30mpg)
                    Green 60 of 72 (17mpg)
                    Martin 0 of 77 (28mpg)

                    SG is such a weak spot in the NBA right now.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Matt52 wrote: View Post
                      The problem is those guys are under contract (like Dudley) but may not be available. If we were choosing who we want, I'd be going after Danny Green or Wesley Matthews or Sefolosha.

                      As for starting:

                      Hayward started 27 of 72 (29mpg)
                      Korver 60 of 74 (30mpg)
                      Dudley 50 of 79 (28mpg)
                      Dunleavy 3 of 75 (26mpg)
                      Redick 13 of 78 (30mpg)
                      Green 60 of 72 (17mpg)
                      Martin 0 of 77 (28mpg)

                      SG is such a weak spot in the NBA right now.
                      That's an interesting statement and I wonder if it played a part in DeMar's new contract. Is he perceived as a bright spot at that position around the league?

                      But back to the thread....I think on an even playing feild any trade involving Demar and either of the players on the list straight up is one sided for the team that gets DeMar. Since none of those guys with maybe Martin as the exception is a starter I would hold onto DeMar and look to trade for someone with atleast the potential to be a decent starter. Gay just hasn't shown that he can be a guy that can consistently carry a team, so replacing DD with any of the guys from the list just weakens the team imo.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Mediumcore wrote: View Post
                        That's an interesting statement and I wonder if it played a part in DeMar's new contract. Is he perceived as a bright spot at that position around the league?
                        I would say no. I think it is another case of Colangelo over valuing his own assets or over estimating market value.

                        Mediumcore wrote: View Post
                        But back to the thread....I think on an even playing feild any trade involving Demar and either of the players on the list straight up is one sided for the team that gets DeMar. Since none of those guys with maybe Martin as the exception is a starter I would hold onto DeMar and look to trade for someone with atleast the potential to be a decent starter. Gay just hasn't shown that he can be a guy that can consistently carry a team, so replacing DD with any of the guys from the list just weakens the team imo.
                        Don't forget the part from the Chisholm article:

                        An offense centered around Valanciunas-Gay-Lowry could be potent if balanced right, especially if the team could stick a high-percentage three-point shooter into the starting shooting guard spot.
                        These guys are all situational/role players. The Raptors need to inject balance and efficiency in to their starting lineup.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Would the Blazers entertain offers for Matthews? I like Redick but he's not starter material in my opinion, but is an excellent bench player.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Mediumcore wrote: View Post
                            That's an interesting statement and I wonder if it played a part in DeMar's new contract. Is he perceived as a bright spot at that position around the league?

                            But back to the thread....I think on an even playing feild any trade involving Demar and either of the players on the list straight up is one sided for the team that gets DeMar. Since none of those guys with maybe Martin as the exception is a starter I would hold onto DeMar and look to trade for someone with atleast the potential to be a decent starter. Gay just hasn't shown that he can be a guy that can consistently carry a team, so replacing DD with any of the guys from the list just weakens the team imo.

                            The bold sums up my opinion on this thread......

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              If Phoenix would do a Bargnani for Scola and Dudley, I'm all for it.

                              Comment

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