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The complexities of Young Talent (

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  • The complexities of Young Talent (

    A great piece by moe.square at

    If you don't believe me that it's hard to forecast young talent, just read this excerpt from CBS Sports from Nov of 2010 courtesy of Matt Moore when Mike Conley was signed to his 5 year $45 million deal:

    This, this right here, is not just the worst move in the history of the Grizzlies, but it is the shining golden cap on the mountain of terrible moves made by NBA owners over the past 2 years. It is this, exact move, that nullifies any argument the owners can possibly make that they spend their money responsibly inside the current CBA. It is this contract that overshadows Joe Johnson's contract, Amir Johnson's contract, Darko Milicic's contract as the single worst contract handed out in 2010.

    Here's more:

    1. Conley surrenders a .96 PPP in Isolation, giving up free throws over 16% of the time. In pick and roll, a .82. It's not horrific. It's just miserably average-to-subpar. This at the most important position on the floor. Bear in mind that Conley plays in a high-octane, weapon-loaded offense that allows him to get out in transition and get easy buckets. Yet he turned the ball over in transition 16.7% of the time.

    2. Advanced stats don't look much better. Conley has never posted a +15 PER, the benchmark of an average player in the league. Conley is only 23, but it would require a monumental improvement in several categories for him to reach the point of actually deserving this kind of contract.

  • #2
    Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Nice find Matt. Interesting read.

    And a tip of the hat to Mr. Colangelo for doing something right:
    "...Digging deeper, the two man unit of Amir/Jonas together posted a DefRtg of 96.5, the best rating for a two man combination logging at least 250 minutes together. At a combined cap hit of just over $10 million next season and $10.68 million in 2014/2015 (providing the Raps pick up their team options for that year, which is pretty much a formality), the Raps have stumbled onto a front-line that's one of the most cost efficient ones in the NBA..."


    • #3
      Meh, I didn't find the article particularly insightful or useful... the whole article was pretty much "sometimes guys live up to their contracts, sometimes they don't, so it's hard to be a GM in the NBA"
      "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

      "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

      "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon