Best case scenario timeline - Tanking vs. Not-tanking

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

I hope this does NOT get merged with the rebuild or re-tool thread since this is not a PROs and CONs post on Tanking vs not-tanking.

I legitimately would like to know the timeline, given the best case scenario, if the Raptors decide to go to tank mode, or play out this current roster and tweak it as they go along in the hopes of building a contender. Is there realistically a possibility to be contenders for both paths and, how long will each path take compared to the other.

Ive read so many discussions on why they should tank, why they shouldnt, why should tweaking the roster and keep re-tweaking year after year will work better and why they shouldnt but i have not read an actual, set of realistic timelines for each path.

I ask because there seems to be no "model" when it comes to using tanking to building a contender. Cavs, Spurs, OKC all seem to have "lucked out" with their picks.

And re-tweaking, it always seems to be the teams with the most money and biggest markets which are able to buy the best players.

Where does this put the Raptors?

[mike, prague]

I'd say by Dec. 31 It should be decided so its not too late to be successful in failing miserably.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I think a decision will be obvious by the trade deadline, if not sooner, based on the Raptors' performance in the first half (and their position in the standings).

I actually see 3 legitimate options at this point (not discussing pros/cons or personal preference):

1) tank this season (starting now or by trade deadline), with eyes on the 2014 draft & offseason --> I expect at least 2-3 years of rebuilding (likely with JV as only 'untouchable'), before being competitive for playoffs

2) status quo this season, with success --> make playoffs in 2013-2014 and build around the current core (ie: Valanciunas, Gay, Lowry, DeRozan, Johnson, plus whoever else steps up), with only minor tweaking (likely a luxury tax team by 2014-15) available to build on their successful season

3) status quo this season, without success --> if they go for the playoffs this season and fail to make it, or make it but decide that 1st round fodder is their ceiling, they can still turnaround and use Lowry (S&T), Gay (expiring contract) and whoever else (likely all but JV) as trade bait next offseason; this could result in complete rebuild or retooling, so ultimate timeline is unknown until moves are made next offseason

[ceez]

trade deadline, basically

trade rudy or not to trade rudy. same with lowry.

[Lefty]

I think a decision will be obvious by the trade deadline, if not sooner, based on the Raptors' performance in the first half (and their position in the standings).

I actually see 3 legitimate options at this point (not discussing pros/cons or personal preference):

1) tank this season (starting now or by trade deadline), with eyes on the 2014 draft & offseason --> I expect at least 2-3 years of rebuilding (likely with JV as only 'untouchable'), before being competitive for playoffs

2) status quo this season, with success --> make playoffs in 2013-2014 and build around the current core (ie: Valanciunas, Gay, Lowry, DeRozan, Johnson, plus whoever else steps up), with only minor tweaking (likely a luxury tax team by 2014-15) available to build on their successful season

3) status quo this season, without success --> if they go for the playoffs this season and fail to make it, or make it but decide that 1st round fodder is their ceiling, they can still turnaround and use Lowry (S&T), Gay (expiring contract) and whoever else (likely all but JV) as trade bait next offseason; this could result in complete rebuild or retooling, so ultimate timeline is unknown until moves are made next offseason

I can see the first two coming. The third, I think is least likely b/c if Ujiri doen't think the team is firmly in playoff contention by the deadline, my guess is he blows it up.

Best Case scenario not-tanking: Raptors make the playoffs, maybe even as high as a 6th seed or so, push the series to 6 or 7 games, then Ujiri maneuvers in the offseason and gets a solid, if not star PF, and deepens the bench to get us on the brink of contending. Gay's shot making dramatically improves, possibly due to his eye surgery/ off season to establish himself as a great #1 option. Derozan shows that he can decently if not effectively hit the 3 ball, good second option. Lowry reverts more to his aggresive, 2012/ early 2013 form, and displays a solid playomaking ability. JV continues to develop. Ross too. Oh, and Buykes wins MVP.
Record: 45-37
Best Case scenario tanking: Ujiri blows it up sometime before or at deadline, trades Gay, Lowry, and maybe others for young assets/ draft picks. Maybe even a couple 2014 first rounders. Raptors luck out in the lottery and nab Wiggins, along with another one or two potential stars with the picks they acquired. Raptors sign serviceable vets or maybe even a star PF. Go into 2015 season with a core of JV, Wiggins, maybe Derozan, unkonwn star prospect, and a free agent landing. Miss the playoffs in 2015, and pull off an OKC in 2016.

[Apollo]

From downtown, count it!

JV's breakout is going to sting the tankers badly.

[NoPropsneeded]

JV's breakout is going to sting the tankers badly.

Potential All Star?

[magoon]

JV's breakout is going to sting the tankers badly.

I personally can't wait to see him get touches on this team, constructed as it is of efficient shooters who don't use a lot of touches.

[rap]

The trade deadline but looking at the first 25 games, there is a difference if the team starts off
15 and 10 or --> go for playoffs
12 and 13 or --> go for playoffs?
11 and 14 or --->?? this rate of win would have qualified for playoffs last year
10 and 15 or --> ?? this is no man's land but does the team give up on the season
7 and 18 --> rebuild

We need to start off strong or collapse when the season starts and none of this middling stuff.

Which scenario do the team "rebuild" vs continue aiming for playoffs

[mcHAPPY]

JV's breakout is going to sting the tankers badly.

It also might benefit them.

If the supporting cast becomes painfully obvious to be overpaid relative to production the Raptors would have a little over 2 seasons to get talent around him before an extension kicks in. That would give the Raptors 3 drafts and 2 off seasons to prepare for 2016 free agency. I read somewhere today (probably HoopsHype.com) that an unidentified GM said teams prepare for free agency 3 years in advance.

[mcHAPPY]

Decision will be made by the first week of December (about 25 games in) but trade may not happen until February deadline - or at all.

Here is what needs to happen for Raptors to 'stay the course' in my opinion:

1) Lowry career year that everyone has said was coming each of the last 3 off seasons,
2) DD needs to do more than score inefficiently (become average from deep, rebound, create, defend... ANYTHING else),
3) Gay needs to return to pre-shoulder injury form,
4) Amir needs to keep doing what he has been doing the last 2-3 seasons,
5) JV needs to enter all-star discussion,
6) Fields needs to return to pre-elbow injury form,
7) Ross needs to show he has potential to become at minimum 3 and D off the bench,
8) Hansbrough needs to produce like he did when given starter minutes last season for Indiana,
9) One of Buycks or DJ need to be at least average backup PG,
10) Novak needs to hit more 3's and create more space for others to operate than the lack of defense and rebounding his presence will create,
11) Acy and Gray need to layeth the smacketh down on any and all candy @sses.

[coastal]

I personally can't wait to see him get touches on this team, constructed as it is of efficient shooters who don't use a lot of touches.

Nice! This made me laugh.

[rap]

It also might benefit them.

If the supporting cast becomes painfully obvious to be overpaid relative to production the Raptors would have a little over 2 seasons to get talent around him before an extension kicks in. That would give the Raptors 3 drafts and 2 off seasons to prepare for 2016 free agency. I read somewhere today (probably HoopsHype.com) that an unidentified GM said teams prepare for free agency 3 years in advance.

Houston worked on the Harden trade in preparation for Howard this off season. Plan B was 2014 UFA batch of players (Bosh, Lebron etc). Masai has already talked about his two year window, so 2016 is the start of the "rebuild" and till then he is acquiring assets first and foremost.

[Apollo]

It also might benefit them.

If the supporting cast becomes painfully obvious to be overpaid relative to production the Raptors would have a little over 2 seasons to get talent around him before an extension kicks in. That would give the Raptors 3 drafts and 2 off seasons to prepare for 2016 free agency. I read somewhere today (probably HoopsHype.com) that an unidentified GM said teams prepare for free agency 3 years in advance.

Matt, that was one short hiatus.

[magoon]

Houston worked on the Harden trade in preparation for Howard this off season. Plan B was 2014 UFA batch of players (Bosh, Lebron etc). Masai has already talked about his two year window, so 2016 is the start of the "rebuild" and till then he is acquiring assets first and foremost.

Masai has said his gameplan is for the 2015/2016 season. That doesn't mean he starts rebuilding then; that means he intends to go into win-now mode at that time.