Toronto's sell-off competition

[Protocall]

If Toronto were to decide the upside to the current team was limited and were to get active on the trade market, what other teams would they be competing with to return maximum assets? In other words, what teams are going to be sellers and what are they selling?

HoopsWorld.com has this article: 5 players most likely to be traded. Click the link to get rationale but according to them:




I would add:

Marcin Gortat, Phoenix Suns

anywhere dwight howard plays, every player is tradeable.

[BobLoblaw]

If Toronto were to decide the upside to the current team was limited and were to get active on the trade market, what other teams would they be competing with to return maximum assets? In other words, what teams are going to be sellers and what are they selling?

HoopsWorld.com has this article: 5 players most likely to be traded. Click the link to get rationale but according to them:




I would add:

Marcin Gortat, Phoenix Suns

Definitely. I think Gortat and Asik should be at the top of such lists.

[S.R.]

I agree with Kyler's assessment of the situation, but there will always be teams that are "motivated buyers." Each year there are teams that take on the 'untradeable contracts', and what's more is that they give value for it. Bargnani, Turk, Joe Johnson, etc.

Look at last year's trade deadline as an example. Milwaukee was motivated as they wanted to do what they could to make the playoffs. The did what they could to get JJ Redick out of Milwaukee. Just like Gay, Redick could walk at the end of the year, or they would have to pay him good money. Orlando gave up Tobias Harris in order to complete the trade.

There are always teams that are motivated for one reason or another, and if Ujiri decides to do so, Gay will be moveable for positive assets.

After the Bargs trade, I believe anything is possible.

Gay's certainly tradeable - he's still a very productive player, and I think he's becoming underrated because he's overpaid (if that makes sense). He's a better defender than people think because of his "volume scorer" tag. The only question is what would be coming back in return. He's getting near the end of his contract, which is good for the Raps and probably makes him more tradeable.

[Shantz]

A little reality:





Charlotte

I agree with Kyler's assessment of the situation, but there will always be teams that are "motivated buyers." Each year there are teams that take on the 'untradeable contracts', and what's more is that they give value for it. Bargnani, Turk, Joe Johnson, etc.

Look at last year's trade deadline as an example. Milwaukee was motivated as they wanted to do what they could to make the playoffs. The did what they could to get JJ Redick out of Milwaukee. Just like Gay, Redick could walk at the end of the year, or they would have to pay him good money. Orlando gave up Tobias Harris in order to complete the trade.

There are always teams that are motivated for one reason or another, and if Ujiri decides to do so, Gay will be moveable for positive assets.

[mcHAPPY]

A little reality:

richard

do you see any trade senerio for rudy gay of the raptors?the same gm had carmelo,and got alot in return?

Steve Kyler

Rudy is not nearly the player Carmelo was/is…

Rudy is a named player, beyond that, his stats do not line up with the hype surrounding him. Equally he’s going to be able to influence where he lands because of his Player Option for free agency.

So the question is who is going to give up a ton for Rudy Gay knowing they either lose him in free agency or they have to pay him a monster new deal?

Not sure that’s an ideal situation to get a real return. You have to have a motivated buyer to get a hefty return.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-rumors...-kyler-9162013

Charlotte

[BobLoblaw]

The only one on that list I wouldn't trade Gay for straight up would be David West, frankly.

And only because of age. West is a better player.

Anyway, most of those players are underpaid at 12 mil and I'm certain they'd get more than 12 mil on the open market. Parker has been a top 10 player in the league for the last two years, he's easily a max guy, but the Spurs locked him up before that. Horford and Rondo, if healthy, are both max or near max players.

If Gay enters open market, I could see him get 12 mil or maybe even 14 mil if he has a solid year.

[MoscowRussia]

We forget about Brooklyn.
I guess Прохоров will be willing to spend another 15 mil. and he will have when Pierce gone after 2013-14.
And the market is good.

[magoon]

Reasonable contracts at $12 mil. - Rondo, Tony Parker, Al Horford, David West, Igoudala. Gay has nice ppg numbers, but in terms of contributing to team success? I'd put him on par with that group (and I'd gladly trade him for a couple of them).

The only one on that list I wouldn't trade Gay for straight up would be David West, frankly.

[S.R.]

Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.

Anything's possible (and there's always a GM willing to overpay), but I would be EXTREMELY surprised if Gay got $15 mil. Look at more recent contracts in the $14-$15 mil range - this is James Harden and Russel Westbrook money now. Even those guys' deals max out at $17.5-ish on the tail end.

Reasonable contracts at $12 mil. - Rondo, Tony Parker, Al Horford, David West, Igoudala. Gay has nice ppg numbers, but in terms of contributing to team success? I'd put him on par with that group (and I'd gladly trade him for a couple of them).

Also, Iggy may have turned down $14 mil, but he signed for $12 mil. dropping to $11. He's also made the All-Star team, the US Olympic squad, the Defensive 2nd team, and is still 29. It's a bit of a stretch to argue from his contract that Gay will get $15 - I'd suggest Iggy's a good argument for Gay getting closer to $12 mil.

Good for Rudy if he opts out and another GM offers him $15 mil./per, but it'd be even better for the Raptors! I'd like to see how Ujiri would use that cap space...

[mcHAPPY]

Bargnani, Nene (if he keeps getting injured), Joe Johnson, Gay, Perkins, probably a few more.

But it's not as bad as it used to be, indeed. I think the biggest thing is the new contract length. Those old 6 year Bird contracts used to hurt. In most cases, people start to look really overpaid several years into their contracts, once injuries and age piles up.

All of those deals were signed before the new CBA with the exception of Nene - who Ujiri promptly traded.

Do you remember the old 7 year contracts? Holy crap. I believe it was the summer of '97 when just about everyone was getting a 7 year, $100M contract.

[BobLoblaw]

I didn't think these thoughts merited a thread but not sure where to put it, so I came here......


1) When looking around the league, combing each team's salary page at Mark Deeks' site ShamSports.com, there are not a lot of those really, really bad contracts anymore.... well, not ones that go beyond 2014-15 (i.e. most bad deals have just 2 years left on them).

What are the worst non-expiring contracts in the league?

Landry Fields, 2 years, $13M
Gerald Wallace, 3 years, $31M
Carlos Boozer, 2 years, $32M
Amar'e Stoudemire, 2 years, $43M
Jason Richardson, 2 years, $13M
Jeremy Lin, 2 years, $20M
Eric Gordon, 3 years, $45M

Did I miss any? (No extensions included, like DeRozan, or contracts signed this summer because we don't know how they play out, like Evans).

It would appear the new CBA and luxury tax has scared the majority of the league in to smaller contracts with less years and more scrutiny. What do you think?


2) There is going to be a lot of salary cap money to be spent in the next few years.

Looking at 2014, nearly half the league has significant cap space (click link on bottom - lots of unknowns with options, resignings could change things):









http://www.hoopsworld.com/looking-to...14s-salary-cap

Bargnani, Nene (if he keeps getting injured), Joe Johnson, Gay, Perkins, probably a few more.

But it's not as bad as it used to be, indeed. I think the biggest thing is the new contract length. Those old 6 year Bird contracts used to hurt. In most cases, people start to look really overpaid several years into their contracts, once injuries and age piles up.

[Fully]

Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.

I'm not so sure about that. Whether it's completely fair or not, Gay's stock seems to have pretty much bottomed out. Every list of overrated or overpaid players from the last year had Gay in one of the top spots. I'm expecting a pretty big pay slash for him on his next deal barring a phenomenal year for him in the interim. $12 million / year seems realistic.

[magoon]

Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala.

Iggy is the better playmaker, facilitator and defender, though, all of which were important to the teams chasing him - teams that already had good primary options (Golden State had Steph Curry, Sacramento had Boogie and at the time Tyreke Evans, Detroit had the Monroe/Drummond frontcourt, etc.).

I actually agree that Rudy can probably get $14 million somewhere in 2014, though. I think LA will pony up for him if/when they don't get LeBron (and Cleveland probably will as well); I think New York will chase him if they lose Melo; I think several other teams who want to pretend they're one key piece away from contending will offer him money as well (your Dallases, your Denvers, et cetera). Rudy's good enough that people will overspend in the hopes that he finally lives up to his potential.

[Axel]

Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.

And yet Iggy is by far the superior defender and has USA basketball stamp of approval. Gay's just another volume scorer in the grand scheme of things. I'd be shocked if Gay was offered more than $12.

[Xixak]

Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.