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  • mcHAPPY
    replied
    S.R. wrote: View Post
    Of course I mean he's walking away from $19 mil to sign $12-ish mil. (or whatever). He easily stands to "lose" $7-9 mil. that year if he opts out of this contract. Supposedly he'll make it up in his next contract, but I think the drop-off from his current salary to his next one is too much to make up. If he opts out he'll sign his next contract as a 28 year old. If he doesn't, he'll sign his next contract as a 29 year old. I don't see him worrying about being shortchanged by hitting the free market as a 29 year old.

    I'm not really arguing for/against either - just honest thoughts.
    I'm inclined to agree with you.

    Contracts are certainly not being handed out like they use to.

    $19M is unheard of today except for the select few, upper echelon, legit franchise talents - which Gay is not.

    I also think he'd rather be looking for his final pay day at 29 versus 32. It is not only the $7M or so "lost" next year it is also about what would he make at 33. I think he makes more at 33 signing when he is 29 than he would make at 33 looking for that season.

    Thinking about this actually gives me a shred of hope that his trade value might be a little higher due to the (my opinion) higher probability he signs for next year..... or maybe it makes it lower.... damn, confusion sets in again.

    Leave a comment:


  • S.R.
    replied
    Fully wrote: View Post
    I don't have a strong opinion on whether Gay will opt in/out at the end of the year, but I think you're framing this slightly incorrectly. He's not really "walking away" from $19 million guaranteed as much as he is walking into $50 million guaranteed, just over a longer period of time.
    Of course I mean he's walking away from $19 mil to sign $12-ish mil. (or whatever). He easily stands to "lose" $7-9 mil. that year if he opts out of this contract. Supposedly he'll make it up in his next contract, but I think the drop-off from his current salary to his next one is too much to make up. If he opts out he'll sign his next contract as a 28 year old. If he doesn't, he'll sign his next contract as a 29 year old. I don't see him worrying about being shortchanged by hitting the free market as a 29 year old.

    I'm not really arguing for/against either - just honest thoughts.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fully
    replied
    S.R. wrote: View Post
    I'm not talking about it happening, I'm talking about it happening with the degree of overpayment Gay's about to enjoy in the final year of his contract. Ellis just went from $11 mil. to $8 mil. AK went from $9.8 mil to $3 mil., but was about to get a paycut anyway - any rumours of how much other teams offered him? A few GM's think there's some kind of Russian side-deal going on in that arrangement.

    Gay's going to get $19 mil in the final year of his contract. You know who was recently signed to that kind of money? Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams. Franchise players + perennial All-Stars + US Olympians + MVP candidates. That's not Ellis/Kirilenko money we're talking about here. Even Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose, slotted to end up in that range, are at $16 and $17 mil. this next season.

    What's Gay's paycut going to be if he opts out of $19 mil? Other good-but-not-quite-all-star-material recent signings put guys of his stature in the $10-$14 mil. range (Ty Lawson, Tyreke Evans, Pekovic, Josh Smith, Igoudala, Ibaka).

    It's all a matter of degrees and there are 100 unknowns, but I wouldn't take the chance of walking away form $19 mil guaranteed just to sign a $12 mil/year (or whatever) contract one year earlier. I think Gay's case is unique. Guys don't just get handed $19 mil anymore unless they're franchise players and league MVPs.
    I don't have a strong opinion on whether Gay will opt in/out at the end of the year, but I think you're framing this slightly incorrectly. He's not really "walking away" from $19 million guaranteed as much as he is walking into $50 million guaranteed, just over a longer period of time.

    Leave a comment:


  • S.R.
    replied
    tkfu wrote: View Post
    All the time. Athlete's careers are short, and guaranteed money is hard to turn down. Kirilenko and Ellis are two examples just from this current offseason.
    I'm not talking about it happening, I'm talking about it happening with the degree of overpayment Gay's about to enjoy in the final year of his contract. Ellis just went from $11 mil. to $8 mil. AK went from $9.8 mil to $3 mil., but was about to get a paycut anyway - any rumours of how much other teams offered him? A few GM's think there's some kind of Russian side-deal going on in that arrangement.

    Gay's going to get $19 mil in the final year of his contract. You know who was recently signed to that kind of money? Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams. Franchise players + perennial All-Stars + US Olympians + MVP candidates. That's not Ellis/Kirilenko money we're talking about here. Even Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose, slotted to end up in that range, are at $16 and $17 mil. this next season.

    What's Gay's paycut going to be if he opts out of $19 mil? Other good-but-not-quite-all-star-material recent signings put guys of his stature in the $10-$14 mil. range (Ty Lawson, Tyreke Evans, Pekovic, Josh Smith, Igoudala, Ibaka).

    It's all a matter of degrees and there are 100 unknowns, but I wouldn't take the chance of walking away form $19 mil guaranteed just to sign a $12 mil/year (or whatever) contract one year earlier. I think Gay's case is unique. Guys don't just get handed $19 mil anymore unless they're franchise players and league MVPs.

    Leave a comment:


  • tkfu
    replied
    S.R. wrote: View Post
    I understand the long-term strategy for Gay opting out early, but has a player as significantly overpaid as he is ever walked away from that amount of guaranteed money?
    All the time. Athlete's careers are short, and guaranteed money is hard to turn down. Kirilenko and Ellis are two examples just from this current offseason.

    Leave a comment:


  • S.R.
    replied
    magoon wrote: View Post
    Masai said when he first came back that his aim was on the 2014-15 season rather than this one, and that makes sense.

    First off: the 2014 free market bonanza hype is overblown. Half of the huge marquee players are just going to resign with their current teams (Dirk, Kobe) or get their big extensions (George, Boogie, Monroe). Really, the 2014 free agent hoopla comes down to two things: 1.) Whether whether the Big Three decide to stay in Miami or move on to the next thing (which is by no means guaranteed, and the better a season Miami has this year, the more likely they are to stay together; if they get the threepeat, no chance they don't go for a fourpeat, basically) and 2.) the Melo-drama, because Melo will be likely courted by everybody, but especially by New York and the Lakers.

    (There's actually a strong chance that Rudy could be one of the biggest free agents next summer if he exercises his player option; if the Big Three re-up then his free agent value rises significantly. Basically, Rudy wants to be a free agent in whatever year Melo and LeBron aren't free agents, and it's more LeBron then Melo since Melo plays power forward so well. I could easily see the Lakers thinking that a starting foursome of Rudy, Melo, Kobe and Nash is their gameplan, and it's not the worst gameplan really.)

    Second, like Matt just pointed out: the only way we have a lot of cap room in summer 2014 is if Rudy exercises his option (in which case we're competing for our own player's services). So we'd have not a lot of money competing for not a lot of options.

    2015 is the better year to aim for. We'll really have not a lot of money committed at all, it's a much richer free agent market for next-level stars (Love, LMA, Rondo, et cetera) and we won't have to go overboard unloading our bad contracts (Landry, etc.).
    Ugh, Nash and Kobe (when he comes back) at their age, + Melo and Gay would be a horrible, horrible lineup. They'd make last year's Lakers look like a well-oiled machine built with perfectly complimenting pieces.

    I understand the long-term strategy for Gay opting out early, but has a player as significantly overpaid as he is ever walked away from that amount of guaranteed money?

    Leave a comment:


  • Dino4life
    replied
    magoon wrote: View Post
    If Rudy exercises his option, then by definition he's not agreeing to an extension since he's terminating the contract early. We would, however, retain his Bird rights if he opted out.
    Yeah i read it as player option, not Early termination option.

    Leave a comment:


  • magoon
    replied
    Dino4life wrote: View Post
    I think an extension has to be at least 105% of the last year, so no. The only way they could do that, is for Masai and Rudy to have a handshake deal, then have Rudy opt out and sign a new deal for less.
    If Rudy exercises his option, then by definition he's not agreeing to an extension since he's terminating the contract early. We would, however, retain his Bird rights if he opted out.

    Leave a comment:


  • magoon
    replied
    drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    If Rudy Exercises his option, is Masai allowed to offer him less money per season, but a large multi-year contract in the CBA?
    We would retain his Bird rights since Rudy's current contract will have been longer than three years, so Toronto could still offer Rudy a five-year contract under the CBA if he exercises his player option, yes.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dino4life
    replied
    drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    If Rudy Exercises his option, is Masai allowed to offer him less money per season, but a large multi-year contract in the CBA?

    I wonder how Rudy would look as a Laker.
    I think an extension has to be at least 105% of the last year, so no. The only way they could do that, is for Masai and Rudy to have a handshake deal, then have Rudy opt out and sign a new deal for less.

    Leave a comment:


  • drunkmunky
    replied
    If Rudy Exercises his option, is Masai allowed to offer him less money per season, but a large multi-year contract in the CBA?

    I wonder how Rudy would look as a Laker.

    Leave a comment:


  • magoon
    replied
    Masai said when he first came back that his aim was on the 2014-15 season rather than this one, and that makes sense.

    First off: the 2014 free market bonanza hype is overblown. Half of the huge marquee players are just going to resign with their current teams (Dirk, Kobe) or get their big extensions (George, Boogie, Monroe). Really, the 2014 free agent hoopla comes down to two things: 1.) Whether whether the Big Three decide to stay in Miami or move on to the next thing (which is by no means guaranteed, and the better a season Miami has this year, the more likely they are to stay together; if they get the threepeat, no chance they don't go for a fourpeat, basically) and 2.) the Melo-drama, because Melo will be likely courted by everybody, but especially by New York and the Lakers.

    (There's actually a strong chance that Rudy could be one of the biggest free agents next summer if he exercises his player option; if the Big Three re-up then his free agent value rises significantly. Basically, Rudy wants to be a free agent in whatever year Melo and LeBron aren't free agents, and it's more LeBron then Melo since Melo plays power forward so well. I could easily see the Lakers thinking that a starting foursome of Rudy, Melo, Kobe and Nash is their gameplan, and it's not the worst gameplan really.)

    Second, like Matt just pointed out: the only way we have a lot of cap room in summer 2014 is if Rudy exercises his option (in which case we're competing for our own player's services). So we'd have not a lot of money competing for not a lot of options.

    2015 is the better year to aim for. We'll really have not a lot of money committed at all, it's a much richer free agent market for next-level stars (Love, LMA, Rondo, et cetera) and we won't have to go overboard unloading our bad contracts (Landry, etc.).

    Leave a comment:


  • mcHAPPY
    replied
    I didn't think these thoughts merited a thread but not sure where to put it, so I came here......


    1) When looking around the league, combing each team's salary page at Mark Deeks' site ShamSports.com, there are not a lot of those really, really bad contracts anymore.... well, not ones that go beyond 2014-15 (i.e. most bad deals have just 2 years left on them).

    What are the worst non-expiring contracts in the league?

    Landry Fields, 2 years, $13M
    Gerald Wallace, 3 years, $31M
    Carlos Boozer, 2 years, $32M
    Amar'e Stoudemire, 2 years, $43M
    Jason Richardson, 2 years, $13M
    Jeremy Lin, 2 years, $20M
    Eric Gordon, 3 years, $45M

    Did I miss any? (No extensions included, like DeRozan, or contracts signed this summer because we don't know how they play out, like Evans).

    It would appear the new CBA and luxury tax has scared the majority of the league in to smaller contracts with less years and more scrutiny. What do you think?


    2) There is going to be a lot of salary cap money to be spent in the next few years.

    Looking at 2014, nearly half the league has significant cap space (click link on bottom - lots of unknowns with options, resignings could change things):

    The NBA’s early cap projection for the 2014-15 season is $62.1 million.
    The NBA has projected a tax threshold of $75.7 million for the 2014-15 season. Like the cap number, it can be only estimated with the actual figure announced in early July.
    Under-Cap Teams

    The following 14 teams project to have cap room next summer based on these early projections:

    Los Angeles Lakers — $46-52 million
    Philadelphia 76ers — $34 million
    Dallas Mavericks — $31 million
    Utah Jazz — $23-43 million
    Phoenix Suns — $19.5 million
    Charlotte Bobcats — $19 million
    Washington Wizards — $15 million.
    Atlanta Hawks — $12 million
    Detroit Pistons — $12 million
    Milwaukee Bucks — $12 million
    Golden State Warriors — $10 million
    Toronto Raptors — $8-26 million
    San Antonio Spurs — $7 million
    Cleveland Cavaliers — 6.5-$24 million
    The biggest free agent could be LeBron James, a certainty if he chooses to opt out of his contract with the Miami HEAT. Carmelo Anthony, of the New York Knicks, may be a lock to forgo the final year on his deal — although re-signing with New York is certainly not out of the question.

    Indiana Pacers’ star Paul George is eligible for an extension until the 2013-14 season starts. If he doesn’t receive one, he’ll be a restricted free agent next summer.

    Other big name free agents will likely include Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol, Rudy Gay (player option or PO), Chris Bosh (early termination option or ETO), Dwyane Wade (ETO), Luol Deng, Danny Granger, Andrew Bogut, Paul Pierce, Greg Monroe (restricted or RFA), Zach Randolph (PO), DeMarcus Cousins (RFA), Kyle Lowry, Derrick Favors (RFA) and Gordon Hayward (RFA) — among many others.
    http://www.hoopsworld.com/looking-to...14s-salary-cap

    Leave a comment:


  • magoon
    replied
    UPDATE: Phoenix trades Caron Butler to Milwaukee in exchange for Ish Smith and Vyacheslav Kravtsov.

    It's not a bad move for either team, I think. Milwaukee can afford Butler's lousy salary at this point, and having Butler gives them more flexibility to play Ilyasova at power forward on an as-needed basis. Phoenix sheds Butler's money in exchange for peanuts - which will let them waive Beasley if they decide to go that route - and Kravtsov still has upside.

    From Toronto's perspective, I think Milwaukee is now much less interested in trading for Rudy Gay, but still would be interested in Kyle, as point guard is still their weakest position by far.

    Leave a comment:


  • Xixak
    replied
    Axel wrote: View Post
    They'll be even better with Wiggins next year
    They have a higher chance of picking 4th. (assuming they finish last)

    Leave a comment:

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