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NBA Predictions from SI - Raps starters

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  • NBA Predictions from SI - Raps starters

    http://nba.si.com/2013/10/28/nba-pre...3_a2&eref=sihp
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

  • #2
    Not sure I agree about the fouls drawn point, but in general everything seems spot on.

    Nice to see some recognition for how well this unit played down the stretch last year, but like the article says, sustaining it over a full season is entirely different (Is this the new Bargnani '13'?).
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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    • #3
      I have to agree with for the most part, which, is why I am always so negative. Toronto is in a tough spot right now. Same ole, too good not to suck, too bad not to be decent.

      Only thing, as Axel pointed out, Demar Derozan, in my eyes, has become quite an aggressive slasher. In fact, if the Raptors had a PG that knew how to spread the floor with decent ball movement, Demar would likely see even more seams, and he'd be on the line more often. What you see now for him is impossible driving lanes that you have to be a master to drive an draw contact. When NBA PG's hold the ball looking for their own shit, defences are very good at adjusting and taking away real estate on the floor. You hear about teams like SA, ball not sticking, etc, well if Toronto did that, a few of their young guys might be able to succeed a bit better.

      Perhaps Casey has a bit of blame here too? I wonder.

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      • #4
        Gay getting the C may also be an indication that he'snot going anywhere, anytime soon.

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        • #5
          Could be, but UM seems savvy, I'm not sure it matters a whole lot one way or the other.

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          • #6
            Many consider it a foregone conclusion that newly hired (and analytically inclined) general manager Masai Ujiri will look to trade Gay
            Is this actually true? Is Ujiri analytically inclined? He's said that statistics are part of the puzzle (which pretty much every GM admits to), but it appears that we're all assuming Ujiri is a stats hound simply because he's relatively young and successful.

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            • #7
              Nilanka wrote: View Post
              Is this actually true? Is Ujiri analytically inclined? He's said that statistics are part of the puzzle (which pretty much every GM admits to), but it appears that we're all assuming Ujiri is a stats hound simply because he's relatively young and successful.
              I wondered that myself. The moves he has made thus far don't really tell us much.
              Heir, Prince of Cambridge

              If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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              • #8
                Nilanka wrote: View Post
                Is this actually true? Is Ujiri analytically inclined? He's said that statistics are part of the puzzle (which pretty much every GM admits to), but it appears that we're all assuming Ujiri is a stats hound simply because he's relatively young and successful.
                Well I'm no stats guru myself, that's for sure. But it seems that Ujiri has either gotten criticism or smug self-righteousness from writers for not blowing it up, or assuming that he WILL blow it up right away. But here's the thing: just because Rudy's stats aren't individually outstanding, does that matter anywhere near as much as the offensive/defensive team stats? It just seems to me like trading Rudy without seeing whether last season was an indicator or an anomaly would be (I apologize for using this in advance...) throwing the baby out with the bath water.
                "This just in........ THE RAPTORS ARE AMAZING!"

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                • #9
                  ...like, didn't this whole advanced metrics thing come from Moneyball, and wasn't that Oakland A's team constructed with guys whose stats didn't look sexy but did the small things needed to win games?
                  "This just in........ THE RAPTORS ARE AMAZING!"

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                  • #10
                    Mundy wrote: View Post
                    ...like, didn't this whole advanced metrics thing come from Moneyball, and wasn't that Oakland A's team constructed with guys whose stats didn't look sexy but did the small things needed to win games?
                    In terms of NBA, the first concrete name I remember hearing in the analytics field was Darryl Morey. He's always at the MIT Sloan conference. I think Mark Cuban's been there recently too....

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                    • #11
                      Rudy Gay, Kevin Love & Russel Westbrook with the Lakers would be one heck of a lineup.

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                      • #12
                        TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
                        Gay getting the C may also be an indication that he'snot going anywhere, anytime soon.
                        Could be true. Also could be MU trying to add value to Gay by giving him the C. He's a sneaky one...
                        Sunny ways my friends, sunny ways
                        Because its 2015

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                        • #13
                          Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
                          Could be true. Also could be MU trying to add value to Gay by giving him the C. He's a sneaky one...
                          Casey gives out the C. Not Massai.
                          @Chr1st1anL

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                          • #14
                            Mundy wrote: View Post
                            ...like, didn't this whole advanced metrics thing come from Moneyball, and wasn't that Oakland A's team constructed with guys whose stats didn't look sexy but did the small things needed to win games?
                            You have it backwards with Moneyball. The A's philosophy was to go after players who performed very well on paper (albeit in different areas than traditionally valued, like the OBP statistic), but did not have the typical "look" that scouts went for. Players who visually looked the part of a potential future star (especially five-toolers, who did all the "small things needed to win games") were highly sought after and thus priced out of the A's budget. A lot of these heralded players also did not perform well on paper, but because they looked the part, they held high promise. The A's, instead, went after players that may have been passed over because they did not have the prototypical look, who may not be smooth fielders, etc., but performed very well statistically. As an exaggerated example, even if your entire lineup was incapable of ever hitting a home run, if every batter had a 1.000 OBP, your run potential for any given inning would be infinite. A common misconception is that Moneyball ultimately failed, when in truth, the rest of the league caught on and removed the A's competitive advantage.

                            That said, as baseball is essentially a 1-on-1 sport and basketball is a highly variable 5-on-5, advanced metrics in basketball cannot be viewed the same way (and it's still very early in its infancy compared to baseball). Either extreme, whether completely relying on it or deciding to ignore it, would be foolish. Its best use is to determine whether our eyes and memory are accurate in their conclusions, and, if there is a disparity, force us to reassess the data until what we see and the story the numbers tell can be reconciled.

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                            • #15
                              Never seen anyone from SI at a Raptors game - must be nice to be that smart that you don't have to actually watch the games to know how players will work together - and since was $27m on 2 players (in relative terms) EVER a big deal in the NBA
                              The best Raptors discussion board is at Raptors Republic.

                              Stephen Brotherston, Pro Bball Report

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